Cubs interested in Luis Arraez?

[cmoss84]

 

That would be get Polanco out of SS and move him to 2nd and find a good defensive SS. That would improve the team. It would also depend if Darvish is the target how much of the remaining 81M for 4 years could we get the Cubs to eat? It would be nice to get them to eat 25-30M.

I like this idea. Jose Iglesias???

[gcg2016]

 

I like this idea. Jose Iglesias???

 

I just do not see the Cubs trading Darvish.  Like a lot of teams they have no depth at SP.  And they have no one down on the farm really ready to step in and eat a ton of innings.  Trading away Darvish would amount to the FO waving a white flag on competing this year.  Darvish traded is something that I'd only view as likely if they were sellers at the deadline.  Contreras, Bryant or Schwarber I could see being actively shopped/discussed now.  I can see the idea of Arraez and prospects to the Cubs as the centerpiece of a big trade for Bryant or Contreras.  It fits the narrative Hoyer and Epstein have been talking about this offseason.  Retool the current team so it can still compete and position the team to stay relevant past 2021.  

[jud6312]

If there's legs to it and an expensive starter is part of the deal, would they possibly want to offload Addison Russell as part of it, too?

 

Not sure I'd be interested, but it wouldn't surprise me.

[gcg2016]

 

If there's legs to it and an expensive starter is part of the deal, would they possibly want to offload Addison Russell as part of it, too?

 

Not sure I'd be interested, but it wouldn't surprise me.

 

I would not be surprised if they non-tender Addison Russell.  He is set to make $5M this coming year.  Do I think it is a gamble worth taking if you can plug your nose on the personal issues?  Yes.  But his time in Chicago could be coming to an end given his bad year coupled with the personal stuff.  

[AZTwin]

Kris Bryant would be an interesting pick up. Could package Luis Arreaz with some young pitching perhaps something like Watson or Enlow? What about Arraez and Rosario for Bryant and some prospects like chase strumpf. Doubt anything happens but this is a type of trade that could be very intriguing. Return a superstar

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

How does adding Kris Bryant weaken any team?  The Cubs are going to want multiple players who are young and cost controlled in return - perhaps some already with a bit of service time and perhaps some prospects.  Keep in mind that Bryant is very capable OF and can play 1B too.  And he's good on the bases too.  The Cubs biggest issue is that Bryant, Rizzo, Baez, Schwarber, Almora (no biggie) and Contreras all become UFAs in 2021 and 2022.  No way they can extend them all.  So they have choices to make.  I would not expect them to deal a frontline starter as they still have a team they think can contend.  This is all about retooling the core so it isn't all coming due at once for them.  And the Twins are definitely the type of team that could get over the top with a few added pieces.  Also could see the Cubs dangling Kimbrel perhaps.  

 

Should have specified 2B... Bryant or Darvish would be a net gain overall... not going to argue that. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

A trade of Arraez for Yu Darvish take 21.5M off the books for the Cubs who seem very reluctant to exceed the Luxury tax.

Per Cot's estimates, the Cubs may only be $5.4 mil over the lowest tax threshold in 2020, so they don't necessarily have to clear much room, even if they want to get under.

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1He7WB2TXeoGRjWmS3-pkTXz_kHh773JvhCXLVXxkTWg/edit#gid=1520401900

 

They could have declined Quintana's option if that was really important. They could also still non-tender Russell and make up most of overage.

[70charger]

I was a little surprised by this, but both the Arraez for Bryant and the Arraez for Darvish swaps don't overly favor the Twins using this tool: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/ 

 

I may have underestimated Arraez's value, although I think if you're going to sell him, this would be the time to do it. Let pitchers adjust and defenses learn to shift him when he's on another team.

 

Also, the easiest replacement for 2B that nobody seems to be talking about is Polanco. Might it not be better to slide Polanco over and look for a stopgap SS? 

[Otto von Ballpark]

Browsing this Twitter account, I don't think it's anything more than a fan like us -- I'd be surprised if this involved a reliable source. It was pushing a Kris Bryant for Jo Adell trade a few weeks ago...

[darin617]

 

I like this idea. Jose Iglesias???

 

That's the perfect target. Along with the part that he won't command a high salary either. He only made 2.5M last season. So he should not command much more than that. Could always make it a 2 year deal and if Lewis is not ready in 2021 we have a cheap player to fill in. Not a big deal to eat 2.5M either if Lewis when Lewis is ready.

[darin617]

 

Per Cot's estimates, the Cubs may only be $5.4 mil over the lowest tax threshold in 2020, so they don't necessarily have to clear much room, even if they want to get under.

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1He7WB2TXeoGRjWmS3-pkTXz_kHh773JvhCXLVXxkTWg/edit#gid=1520401900

 

They could have declined Quintana's option if that was really important. They could also still non-tender Russell and make up most of overage.

That would also mean that if they didn't trade someone like Darvish they couldn't add any free agents this offseason.

[gcg2016]

 

That would also mean that if they didn't trade someone like Darvish they couldn't add any free agents this offseason.

 

I don't know why you all think the Cubs would move Darvish.  They won 84 games last year.  It isn't like they are in big time rebuild mode.  The front office has been pretty direct and clear.  They intend to trade from their historic core of position players to position to keep the team's competitive window open even longer than 2021 when a host of those core position players hit UFA.  If you look at their roster and their farm system they need more, not less, starting pitching.  Trading Darvish would signal a full on rebuild.  That is not the script.  The core guys who would likely be shopped are Schwarber, Contreras and Bryant.  They have opened extension talks with Baez.  I don't envision them wanting to trade Rizzo (although I guess it is possible).  Here is their list of farm players who are obviously ready to step into a ML rotation:   none.  

[crapforks]

The cubs fans commenting on that tweet. Chef’s kiss.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

That would also mean that if they didn't trade someone like Darvish they couldn't add any free agents this offseason.

True -- but if they're looking to add free agents, then I really don't think staying under the *lowest* luxury tax line is necessarily a priority for them.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I don't know why you all think the Cubs would move Darvish.

I don't think it's likely, but the theory behind it would be, if you could move someone like Darvish for a decent return, then turn around and sign someone like Wheeler or whomever at comparable or less cost, you've made a net improvement. Of course, if Wheeler or whomever is equivalent to Darvish, other teams will probably just sign them themselves and not give up prospects/talent in trade.

[gcg2016]

 

The cubs fans commenting on that tweet. Chef’s kiss.

 

Fair enough.  But most fans really under think things and rarely pay attention to what is actually being said by the FO.  And Cubs fans are big city fans who blow pretty damn hard.  A lot of fans never think about salary implications very fully either.  If I'm the twins I'm thinking how good is my team if I add Bryant or Contreras?  And what am I willing to pay given Bryant will get 40M over 2 years and Contreras will likely get 20M over 3 years.  And if I send any salary back at Chicago in a trade what more do I have to give up to get the trade done.  And then what is it Chicago really wants.  We can't know that one for sure as fans but there are clues like the fact the Cubs have shown interest in trading for both Whit Merrifield and Arraez.  And the fact you can look at their roster and realize they need more pitching depth.  What they wouldn't not seem to covet is a low OBP, good power, low OPS bat like Rosario.  Here are two trades that may make you gulp, but that I think are pretty legit given what MLB.com has suggested others might be willing to give up for two years of Bryant or three years of Contreras.  Keep in mind a full season of Bryant at a minimum gets you 30 HR, an OPS guaranteed to be over .925, an OPS+ north of 120 and at least 80 RBI.  There are very few sure things like that in the game.  Never mind the guy can play all over the field.  

Bryant and Almora for Gonzalez (Twins get out from under 20M of salary for 2 years), Arraez, Kirrilloff, Graterol, Canterino and pick a decent OF prospect who could be bench depth one day with a slightly higher ceiling.  By throwing Gonzalez to the Cubs you'd be getting Bryant for 20M over two years.  Basically you are getting him for FREE.  In turn that warrants a big time haul of prospects in return.  It's a go hard now type move that leaves flexibility to go and meet other needs still right now.  

Contreras for Arraez, Kirrilloff and Canterino 

[nicksaviking]

I like Arraez, but the guy with that swing, I think he's about already hit his ceiling. Great player and any team would be happy to have him, but without the power, and that swing is almost certainly never going to generate power, he'll never be a middle of the order bat.

 

I'd prefer to keep him, but if he can be part of a deal to bring back a Kris Bryant? Yeah I'd do that. Anthony Rizzo would look good at 1B too. I suppose Darvish I'd do as well. I'm less of a believer in his bounce back than others around here, but I'd give him a shot.

[nicksaviking]

 

The cubs fans commenting on that tweet. Chef’s kiss.

 

Ha, yeah I like this one which comes from the land of "Wow, that's a hot take!":

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Bryant and Almora for Gonzalez (Twins get out from under 20M of salary for 2 years), Arraez, Kirrilloff, Graterol, Canterino and pick a decent OF prospect who could be bench depth one day with a slightly higher ceiling.  By throwing Gonzalez to the Cubs you'd be getting Bryant for 20M over two years.  Basically you are getting him for FREE.  In turn that warrants a big time haul of prospects in return.  It's a go hard now type move that leaves flexibility to go and meet other needs still right now. 

That's pretty wild. But note that Bryant is projected to get ~$46 mil over the next 2 years (he'll get almost $20 mil in 2020 alone, plus presumably a raise for 2021), while Marwin only has $9 mil remaining.

[gcg2016]

 

That's pretty wild. But note that Bryant is projected to get ~$46 mil over the next 2 years (he'll get almost $20 mil in 2020 alone, plus presumably a raise for 2021), while Marwin only has $9 mil remaining.

 

Ah.  Thought he was two more years.  Still a means to discount the cost on Bryant.  And Bryant is projected to get 18M this year.  No way in hell he gets 28M next year.  Maybe 25M tops.  So lets call it 24M.  You are discounting him to 33M over two years.  That is very defensible and still leaves some flexibility.  But a lot less than I assumed.  If I'm the Cubs I think long and hard about that deal as they'd get a solid average OBP guy in Arraez, a solid 2/3 type future starter and a potential defensive star at 1B / OF with lower projectibles than maybe they'd like in terms of power but still an every day player.  They'd have to protect their other power bats.  But they'd have solved their biggest issues and the Twins would have a win now in front of them for two years if they can ink a solid starter.  

[SwainZag]

 

Ha, yeah I like this one which comes from the land of "Wow, that's a hot take!":

 

 

Lol shocker

[ewen21]

I know I have spoken about trading guys to bring in pitching, but if that means trading Arraez to bring in Darvish I am dead set against it.  That would be a deal we would regret for a long time, in my opinion

[old nurse]

 

I like Arraez, but the guy with that swing, I think he's about already hit his ceiling. Great player and any team would be happy to have him, but without the power, and that swing is almost certainly never going to generate power, he'll never be a middle of the order bat.

 

I'd prefer to keep him, but if he can be part of a deal to bring back a Kris Bryant? Yeah I'd do that. Anthony Rizzo would look good at 1B too. I suppose Darvish I'd do as well. I'm less of a believer in his bounce back than others around here, but I'd give him a shot.

There is nothing wrong with a 3-4 war player except where there is pessimism

[Sjoski]

No way I trade Arraez. He has proven his ceiling is to high. The best baseball minds are comparing this guy to Rod Carew and Tony Gwynn. It would take an offer to good to refuse to pry him from my team. 

[howeda7]

 

A trade of Arraez for Yu Darvish take 21.5M off the books for the Cubs who seem very reluctant to exceed the Luxury tax.

I'd only do that if the Cubs are going to eat about $15 million of the $21.5. Otherwise I can keep Arreaz and spend $21 million on a different pitcher.

 

If the concern is luxury tax, I'd consider giving them a medium prospect to take Darvish off their hands.

[sweetmusicviola16]

 

No way I trade Arraez. He has proven his ceiling is to high. The best baseball minds are comparing this guy to Rod Carew and Tony Gwynn. It would take an offer to good to refuse to pry him from my team. 

Plus Kiriloff and Graterol.  Easy, No Thanks.

[bird]

Maybe it's only ironic to me, but I'm completely humored. We're talking about Luis Arraez, a prospect who, less than six months ago was probably viewed by half the TD community as close to having zero zero value and a zero percent chance of becoming an impact player. And we're talking about Yu Darvish, the consensus top FA prize just two years age, a prize the Twins FO was blamed for going cheap and weak with their bid. And we're talking about a straight up trade.

 

I'm not at all disparaging any viewpoint from the past, just finding it remarkable how fluid player values can be.

 

I know this is just twitter talk out there.

[gcg2016]

 

Plus Kiriloff and Graterol.  Easy, No Thanks.

 

Not following that logic fully.  After 2021 and 2022 the following players all will have hit free agency - Sano, Berrios, Buxton, Rosario.  Only Polanco and Kepler are really locked up past 2022.  So that's basically a 3 year window with a solid core.  If someone is offering a 101 win team the chance to take on Kris Bryant or Contreras for 2 years or all of that 3 year window . . . I'd be surprised if they are not going to listen for a no power 2B, a projectable mid-rotation starter with upside and a contact hitting 1B.  Don't get me wrong, all those guys could turn out to be solid pros.  But the odds say not one of them projects like Bryant has already performed.  I get that mortgaging the farm to a decent extent isn't great.  But how long will it be before the Twins have this sort of core already in the majors.  101 teams are rare.  Teams capable of winning the World Series are rare unless you are the Yankees or Dodgers.  

[Major League Ready]

 

I'd only do that if the Cubs are going to eat about $15 million of the $21.5. Otherwise I can keep Arreaz and spend $21 million on a different pitcher.

 

If the concern is luxury tax, I'd consider giving them a medium prospect to take Darvish off their hands.

 

Great. I think we would all love to get Darvish for a medium prospect. However, he was good the 2nd half last year and appears to be healthy. He posted a K/9 of 12.63 / xFIP of 2.45 and 2.4 WAR after 7/1. That does not sound like someone that gets traded for a medium prospect.

[Rosterman]

Whatever is best for the club. It wouldn't be ahrd to find a rental. Then we have to sort out the whole Gordon, Lewis, Polanco and more mess.