gcg2016

The Cubs are not looking to clear salary to sign a stud pitcher. They are looking to trade one or more of their core players while they still have market value before free agency. They don't want to repeat what the Tigers went through when all their best players left for nothing but draft pick compensation. And they can't afford to resign everyone coming up for free agency. One or more of them has to get moved.

Not following that logic fully. After 2021 and 2022 the following players all will have hit free agency - Sano, Berrios, Buxton, Rosario. Only Polanco and Kepler are really locked up past 2022. So that's basically a 3 year window with a solid core. If someone is offering a 101 win team the chance to take on Kris Bryant or Contreras for 2 years or all of that 3 year window . . . I'd be surprised if they are not going to listen for a no power 2B, a projectable mid-rotation starter with upside and a contact hitting 1B. Don't get me wrong, all those guys could turn out to be solid pros. But the odds say not one of them projects like Bryant has already performed. I get that mortgaging the farm to a decent extent isn't great. But how long will it be before the Twins have this sort of core already in the majors. 101 teams are rare. Teams capable of winning the World Series are rare unless you are the Yankees or Dodgers.

Ah. Thought he was two more years. Still a means to discount the cost on Bryant. And Bryant is projected to get 18M this year. No way in hell he gets 28M next year. Maybe 25M tops. So lets call it 24M. You are discounting him to 33M over two years. That is very defensible and still leaves some flexibility. But a lot less than I assumed. If I'm the Cubs I think long and hard about that deal as they'd get a solid average OBP guy in Arraez, a solid 2/3 type future starter and a potential defensive star at 1B / OF with lower projectibles than maybe they'd like in terms of power but still an every day player. They'd have to protect their other power bats. But they'd have solved their biggest issues and the Twins would have a win now in front of them for two years if they can ink a solid starter.

Fair enough. But most fans really under think things and rarely pay attention to what is actually being said by the FO. And Cubs fans are big city fans who blow pretty damn hard. A lot of fans never think about salary implications very fully either. If I'm the twins I'm thinking how good is my team if I add Bryant or Contreras? And what am I willing to pay given Bryant will get 40M over 2 years and Contreras will likely get 20M over 3 years. And if I send any salary back at Chicago in a trade what more do I have to give up to get the trade done. And then what is it Chicago really wants. We can't know that one for sure as fans but there are clues like the fact the Cubs have shown interest in trading for both Whit Merrifield and Arraez. And the fact you can look at their roster and realize they need more pitching depth. What they wouldn't not seem to covet is a low OBP, good power, low OPS bat like Rosario. Here are two trades that may make you gulp, but that I think are pretty legit given what MLB.com has suggested others might be willing to give up for two years of Bryant or three years of Contreras. Keep in mind a full season of Bryant at a minimum gets you 30 HR, an OPS guaranteed to be over .925, an OPS+ north of 120 and at least 80 RBI. There are very few sure things like that in the game. Never mind the guy can play all over the field. Bryant and Almora for Gonzalez (Twins get out from under 20M of salary for 2 years), Arraez, Kirrilloff, Graterol, Canterino and pick a decent OF prospect who could be bench depth one day with a slightly higher ceiling. By throwing Gonzalez to the Cubs you'd be getting Bryant for 20M over two years. Basically you are getting him for FREE. In turn that warrants a big time haul of prospects in return. It's a go hard now type move that leaves flexibility to go and meet other needs still right now. Contreras for Arraez, Kirrilloff and Canterino

I don't know why you all think the Cubs would move Darvish. They won 84 games last year. It isn't like they are in big time rebuild mode. The front office has been pretty direct and clear. They intend to trade from their historic core of position players to position to keep the team's competitive window open even longer than 2021 when a host of those core position players hit UFA. If you look at their roster and their farm system they need more, not less, starting pitching. Trading Darvish would signal a full on rebuild. That is not the script. The core guys who would likely be shopped are Schwarber, Contreras and Bryant. They have opened extension talks with Baez. I don't envision them wanting to trade Rizzo (although I guess it is possible). Here is their list of farm players who are obviously ready to step into a ML rotation: none.

I would not be surprised if they non-tender Addison Russell. He is set to make $5M this coming year. Do I think it is a gamble worth taking if you can plug your nose on the personal issues? Yes. But his time in Chicago could be coming to an end given his bad year coupled with the personal stuff.

I just do not see the Cubs trading Darvish. Like a lot of teams they have no depth at SP. And they have no one down on the farm really ready to step in and eat a ton of innings. Trading away Darvish would amount to the FO waving a white flag on competing this year. Darvish traded is something that I'd only view as likely if they were sellers at the deadline. Contreras, Bryant or Schwarber I could see being actively shopped/discussed now. I can see the idea of Arraez and prospects to the Cubs as the centerpiece of a big trade for Bryant or Contreras. It fits the narrative Hoyer and Epstein have been talking about this offseason. Retool the current team so it can still compete and position the team to stay relevant past 2021.

I'd note the Cubs 40 man roster is sitting at 35 after yesterday's deadline to add players. That suggests they may be working on some sort of multi-player deal. And their FO has said they want hitters who bring some added discipline to the line up given their lead off guys were awful last year. I bet they had an OBP of less than 32% from that spot. And the team struck out a ton too.

He also didn't start playing until what was it, July? I hear you, but there is the longer term track record. Looking at the Twins roster they have a window similar to that of the Cubs - lots of UFA's in 2022 and 2023. So the time for them to go all in is right now given they won 101 last year. Hard for me to see anyone on the Twins roster they'd want to send to Chicago to eat up some of Bryant's cost with the exception of Marwin Gonzalez who is owed $10.5M a year for two more years while posting an OPS of under .800 and an OPS+ of less than 100. So you could perhaps see the Cubs saying here's Kris Bryant at an average cost of what Gonzalez will cost you over the next two years when you send us Gonzalez. In return thee Cubs also need a haul of other players/prospects. So give the Cubs Gonzalez and Arraez (who helps the Cubs now) and all his years of control as well as something like Kirilloff and Balazovic. There could be other "pieces" in there too going either way. But that is the type of deal I could see getting the Twins a huge piece at an affordable price so they can make other moves to win now. I also could see the Padres, Dodgers or Braves wanting Bryant and they likewise have the types of pieces to get this type of deal done. Minnesota basically would be getting Bryant for the same price (even less) than Gonzalez and can invest elsewhere to get other parts needed this offseason to try and win right now.

How does adding Kris Bryant weaken any team? The Cubs are going to want multiple players who are young and cost controlled in return - perhaps some already with a bit of service time and perhaps some prospects. Keep in mind that Bryant is very capable OF and can play 1B too. And he's good on the bases too. The Cubs biggest issue is that Bryant, Rizzo, Baez, Schwarber, Almora (no biggie) and Contreras all become UFAs in 2021 and 2022. No way they can extend them all. So they have choices to make. I would not expect them to deal a frontline starter as they still have a team they think can contend. This is all about retooling the core so it isn't all coming due at once for them. And the Twins are definitely the type of team that could get over the top with a few added pieces. Also could see the Cubs dangling Kimbrel perhaps.

I would expect the Cubs are not dangling any pitcher save maybe Lester (who can be bought out for 10M after this year). Most likely this would be a trade involving Contreras or Bryant. And there is no way Arraez would be all the Cubs would command in return for either of those guys. To the extent the Twins want to shed any salary in this deal to absorb the cost of Bryant (he's probably going to get 18.5 this year and 22 or so next year) that could take the cost in prospects and players like Arraez even a bit higher. Contreras will make 4.5M this year and has three years of control left. Bryant has two years of control as all the talking heads expect him to lose his grievance.