New Player Acquisitions: Who, When, and How?

[Riverbrian]

 

I think someone will offer a top 30 prospect for Bumgarner. The Twins have a few of those in Kirilloff, Lewis and I think Graterol will get there and could be seen by the Giants in that neighborhood as we near July. They would really need to be blown away to deal him early.

I think they will get offers that are in the range like

Graterol + Larnach or Rooker

Kirilloff + Duran or Alcala

I would expect that the Giants would be willing to pay some salary to make sure the prospect return is maximized. I would expect them to look for top end prospects rather than a larger package of prospects approaching the top 100.

It hurts to give up prospects and you lose on many of these deals in the long run. It still might be time to do it.

I would aggressively compete for Bumgarner. If the Twins aren’t including any of the top 3 I don’t think they are really competing for Bumgarner.

 

I can only guess... Bumgarner hasn't been dealt yet, so I can only guess that the Giants are asking for quite a bit and teams are reluctant to pay the ask. With the other possibility being that the Giants are not going to deal him until their 2019 fate is absolutely sealed. 

 

The Giants need prospects to replenish a weak farm system. If I was the GM... I would be trying to deal him so if I had to guess... The ask is too high... whatever that ask is. 

 

Aside from whatever the ask is... The only clue about what teams might be willing to pay can only be based upon what teams recently paid for quality rentals. 

 

Last Year the Dodgers shipped 5 prospects to Baltimore for 2 months (And Playoffs) of Manny Machado.

Yusniel Diaz (OF) - Currently Ranked 1st in the Orioles System - 61st overall (AA)

Dean Kremer (SP) - Currently Ranked 9th in the Orioles System (AA)

Rylan Bannon (2B/3B) - Currently Ranked 23rd in the Orioles System (AA)

Zach Pop (RP) - Currently Ranked 20th in the Orioles System (AA)

Breyvic Velera - Traded to the Giants for Cash after being DFA'd

 

Using that deal as a comparable and also making an assumption that Machado is slightly more valuable than Bumgarner (Only because I personally feel that he is with not facts to back me up). And Also making the assumption that the Twins Farm system is better than the Orioles Farm System. 

 

My guess is that the Twins equivalent deal for Bumgarner would be.

Brent Rooker - AAA

Jhoan Duran - High A

Travis Blankenhorn - AA

Luis Rojo - Low A

Ronald Torrreyes - AAA

 

I don't know... just throwing stuff at the wall. 

[PseudoSABR]

 

How have the AAA players they've used worked out? Most have negative WAR. Is that better?

As I said, I wish they addressed the position more thoroughly.  Parker is doing well.  But which players are we even comparing? Romero to who?

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

This guy is available https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/03/outrighted-duensing-wilkerson-okert.html

We will need him to sweeten any trade offers.

[jorgenswest]

I can only guess... Bumgarner hasn't been dealt yet, so I can only guess that the Giants are asking for quite a bit and teams are reluctant to pay the ask. With the other possibility being that the Giants are not going to deal him until their 2019 fate is absolutely sealed.

 

The Giants need prospects to replenish a weak farm system. If I was the GM... I would be trying to deal him so if I had to guess... The ask is too high... whatever that ask is.

 

Aside from whatever the ask is... The only clue about what teams might be willing to pay can only be based upon what teams recently paid for quality rentals.

 

Last Year the Dodgers shipped 5 prospects to Baltimore for 2 months (And Playoffs) of Manny Machado.

Yusniel Diaz (OF) - Currently Ranked 1st in the Orioles System - 61st overall (AA)

Dean Kremer (SP) - Currently Ranked 9th in the Orioles System (AA)

Rylan Bannon (2B/3B) - Currently Ranked 23rd in the Orioles System (AA)

Zach Pop (RP) - Currently Ranked 20th in the Orioles System (AA)

Breyvic Velera - Traded to the Giants for Cash after being DFA'd

 

Using that deal as a comparable and also making an assumption that Machado is slightly more valuable than Bumgarner (Only because I personally feel that he is with not facts to back me up). And Also making the assumption that the Twins Farm system is better than the Orioles Farm System.

 

My guess is that the Twins equivalent deal for Bumgarner would be.

Brent Rooker - AAA

Jhoan Duran - High A

Travis Blankenhorn - AA

Luis Rojo - Low A

Ronald Torrreyes - AAA

 

I don't know... just throwing stuff at the wall.

Nice analysis I would make that deal.

 

The problem with trying to acquire a starter is everyone needs them and I think that will drive the price up though the value is comparable.

[ashbury]

We will need him to sweeten any trade offers.

We had our Steven Okert, in Justin Nicolino, and frittered him away.

 

Justin "Our Steven Okert" Nicolino. It has a ring to it.

[drivlikejehu]

One reliever I thought made sense to add in the off-season was Cody Allen. Reasonable price, Falvey/Cleveland connection. His *xFIP* is 7.08 and he's at -0.4 WAR in 9 innings pitched. Falvine would of course be excoriated on here if they had signed him (after some off-season approval).

 

The biggest 'misses' appear to be a couple guys they already had in the system, instead of potential free agent targets. 

 

At any rate, teams aren't looking to make deals right now. The Twins will no doubt consider moves once that time approaches.

[FlauerPauer]

It's going to be interesting to see if Odorizzi and Perez can keep pitching effectively. Obviously they aren't going to continue to throw 6 innings of shut out ball, but if they can sustain a 3.80-4.10 ERA then I think it makes the need for a starter less important and the focus becomes on the bullpen. Bullpen would probably be my focus regardless. Hopefully Romeo heats up and gets it together. Having him effective makes the need for a bullpen arm less demanding too where you may not need a top tier guy, but maybe a 6-7 inning guy.

 

I like to think that they somehow swing a package for Bumgarner and Will Smith from the Giants. Maybe they take on salary from the D'backs and trade for Grinke. There are some guys out there, and you gotta go for it when you have a chance.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I’m not sure why the Twins should be interested in a starter right now. Pineda has looked pretty bad but I’d give him another month before making a decision. No way am I booting Berrios, Odorizzi, Gibson, or Perez out of the rotation today.

 

But if there’s a bullpen option available, do it yesterday.

[Riverbrian]

One reliever I thought made sense to add in the off-season was Cody Allen. Reasonable price, Falvey/Cleveland connection. His *xFIP* is 7.08 and he's at -0.4 WAR in 9 innings pitched. Falvine would of course be excoriated on here if they had signed him (after some off-season approval).

 

The biggest 'misses' appear to be a couple guys they already had in the system, instead of potential free agent targets.

 

At any rate, teams aren't looking to make deals right now. The Twins will no doubt consider moves once that time approaches.

Could have gotten a look at some of those guys like Anderson instead of paying millions for Belisle.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Does anyone know when the Twins would no longer owe Boston a 3rd round pick for Kimbrel?

Technically, the pick doesn't go directly to the Red Sox anymore. The signing team forfeits a pick in one spot, and the other team gains a pick in a different spot.

[TKGuy]

I’d like Stroman or MadBum for starters and Will Smith out of the pen. MadBum and Smith will be FA after the season.

[jtkoupal]

It's fun to discuss these topics. I have been plenty guilty over the years of playing Armchair GM. With what we know now, however, there is no way to formulate an accurate hypothesis on who we may acquire and when we may acquire them. Here are a couple of reasons why:

 

-The Twins are off to a great start, and I expect them to stay in the mix, but it's also possible that we're on a bit of a sugar rush. I'd love an addition or two, and there's merit to the idea of striking early, but it also wouldn't hurt to stay the course for a while yet and make sure that this isn't a fluke.

 

-We are still almost 3 months from the trade deadline. There are only a handful of teams that are comfortable non-contenders. There are other teams already on the brink, but their front offices aren't going to pack it in just yet. 

 

-Piggy-backing off the last point, getting a guy earlier can be more costly. The other team will likely command a bigger return.

 

I would love for the Twins to strike a deal sooner rather than later, and I think there is a lot of merit to the idea, but it is important to be realistic and put ourselves in the shoes of the decision-makers.

[Vanimal46]

Today's market inefficiency is acquiring rental players at the deadline. Over the last couple of years prices are declining for these assets. I'd like the Twins to use their surplus of A ball lottery tickets and push for a division title.

[PseudoSABR]

[ashbury]

Bumgarner chose teams strategically; list comprised solely of contenders that might want to acquire him

"The great trouble with baseball today is that most of the players are in the game for the money and that's it, not for the love of it, the excitement of it, the thrill of it."

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

_{^{/ attributed to Ty Cobb}}

[jorgenswest]

Everyone picks the teams strategically. There is no reason to pick teams that won’t trade for you.

 

I wonder when he had to pick the teams. The Twins look like a strategic choice right now.

[yarnivek1972]

https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/1127255613849759745

That would seem to work to the Twins advantage. That’s 8 teams that won’t be involved. Plus at least 10 others already buried. The Twins are one of the few teams still in the mix.

 

Rays are unlikely to add payroll. Mariners maybe.

[Mr. Brooks]

That would seem to work to the Twins advantage. That’s 8 teams that won’t be involved. Plus at least 10 others already buried. The Twins are one of the few teams still in the mix.

 

Rays are unlikely to add payroll. Mariners maybe.

Why won't those teams be involved? He chose them precisely because he thinks they are the most likely teams to be involved.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Why won't those teams be involved? He chose them precisely because he thinks they are the most likely teams to be involved.

 

It gives them leverage over the Giants. They may still be involved, but now have to likely cough up extra cash as well as prospects. 

 

But you're right that this doesn't mean that they won't be involved.

 

We are a strategic choice in that capacity. SF and MN don't have to deal with those issues if the prospect part can be agreed on. 

[jorgenswest]

It really gives Bumgarner some leverage in selecting his new team.

 

Verlander had a full no trade. There may have been better offers but he had leverage over the TIgers and had to agree to the trade. Johan Santana had a no trade clause that limited the Twins ability to seek the best possible return.

 

The Giants can go to Bumgarner and let him know that they have a deal with the Twins but would prefer the offer of a team on the list and see if he will agree to the trade. He can be compensated in the form of a very favorable contract extension to drop the no trade.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

It really gives Bumgarner some leverage in selecting his new team.

Verlander had a full no trade. There may have been better offers but he had leverage over the TIgers and had to agree to the trade. Johan Santana had a no trade clause that limited the Twins ability to seek the best possible return.

The Giants can go to Bumgarner and let him know that they have a deal with the Twins but would prefer the offer of a team on the list and see if he will agree to the trade. He can be compensated in the form of a very favorable contract extension to drop the no trade.

 

yeah, but said extension also factors into the return.. It gives us leverage. Whether he ends up here, who knows. 

 

That said, SP isn't our issue right now. Wouldn't mind MadBum, but I hope the team is more interested in finding RP help. Now if a starter gets hurt or turns back into a pumpkin, that's a different issue.

[Nine of twelve]

I said this on another thread, but if our top four starters continue to do well I don't think we should trade for another starter, especially if we have a good lead in the standings come July. Keep in mind that only four starters are needed to go deep into the postseason. I think we're OK with our hitting and our fielding. The bullpen is our area of biggest need.

[Vanimal46]

I said this on another thread, but if our top four starters continue to do well I don't think we should trade for another starter, especially if we have a good lead in the standings come July. Keep in mind that only four starters are needed to go deep into the postseason. I think we're OK with our hitting and our fielding. The bullpen is our area of biggest need.

You can never have enough good pitching. I want 2019 to be the year where the Twins top prospects are truly blocked by 5 good starters.

[USAFChief]

I said this on another thread, but if our top four starters continue to do well I don't think we should trade for another starter, especially if we have a good lead in the standings come July. Keep in mind that only four starters are needed to go deep into the postseason. I think we're OK with our hitting and our fielding. The bullpen is our area of biggest need.

I wouldn't mind adding a starter that slots in 1st or 2nd in the postseason.

 

Short of that, add to the bullpen, but again, they need to add guys at or above the Rogers level. Adding to the bottom of the pen accomplishes nothing.

[stringer bell]

 

You can never have enough good pitching. I want 2019 to be the year where the Twins top prospects are truly blocked by 5 good starters.

To piggy-back on that thought, remember that three of the five in the rotation are free agents at the end of this year (Gibson, Odorizzi, and Pineda). A surplus of pitching this year might not be so for the future. Also, a guy like Meíja, who I've always thought profiles better as a starter, might have that role as soon as next year.

 

To top all of that off, it looks like the Twins' best hopes for starting pitching in the minors are at AA and below. I don't see anyone from Rochester's rotation that will force their way into the Twins' rotation.

[Otto von Ballpark]

It really gives Bumgarner some leverage in selecting his new team.

 

Verlander had a full no trade. There may have been better offers but he had leverage over the TIgers and had to agree to the trade. Johan Santana had a no trade clause that limited the Twins ability to seek the best possible return.

 

The Giants can go to Bumgarner and let him know that they have a deal with the Twins but would prefer the offer of a team on the list and see if he will agree to the trade. He can be compensated in the form of a very favorable contract extension to drop the no trade.

I highly doubt Bumgarner would even want an extension, as a pending FA. (Has a pending FA ever received an extension from a new team at the deadline before?) He almost certainly wants to hit the open market, hopefully with a great finish/postseason behind him. And he probably also doesn't want to be rushed into a sudden multiyear commitment with an unfamiliar org midseason either.

 

More than likely, the no trade clause will be invoked to give him some control over his destination, and maybe a small cash bonus.

[Nine of twelve]

 

I wouldn't mind adding a starter that slots in 1st or 2nd in the postseason.

Short of that, add to the bullpen, but again, they need to add guys at or above the Rogers level. Adding to the bottom of the pen accomplishes nothing.

Of course I wouldn't mind a top flight starter either but I don't think the need is enough that I would overpay for one.

[jkcarew]

 

More than likely, the no trade clause will be invoked to give him some control over his destination, and maybe a small cash bonus.

Agree. It's a probability play to realize that compensation (no matter how small) and leverage. Bumgarner's agency did their research and picked the 8 teams most likely to make an offer at (or before) the deadline. The variables would be...one, in the race...and two, willing to make serious offers for a starting pitcher. The Twins didn't make the grade. But then, neither did any other team in the AL Central which isn't surprising. I suppose this could work to the Twins' advantage...marginally.

[Mr. Brooks]

I highly doubt Bumgarner would even want an extension, as a pending FA. (Has a pending FA ever received an extension from a new team at the deadline before?) He almost certainly wants to hit the open market, hopefully with a great finish/postseason behind him. And he probably also doesn't want to be rushed into a sudden multiyear commitment with an unfamiliar org midseason either.

 

More than likely, the no trade clause will be invoked to give him some control over his destination, and maybe a small cash bonus.

Eduardo Escobar did just last year.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Eduardo Escobar did just last year.

Escobar didn't sign an extension at the deadline, he re-signed with Arizona after the season ended. That's not unusual -- Shannon Stewart did it, etc.

 

Bumgarner might do that too, but in the context of this discussion -- where a poster suggested that an extension demand could be a condition required for him to waive his no-trade -- it doesn't really apply.