Take Advantage of the Banked Wins

[Vanimal46]

So you wouldn't trade Addison Reed, Castro, and Pineda? We are already contending. Believe it or not you can do both.

Nobody wants Reed if he's injured and broken. No, I wouldn't trade Castro or Pineda. It wasn't too long ago when the Twins had to start Drew Butera, Ryan Doumit, and Juan Centeno. I wouldn't trade any MLB quality catcher.

[USAFChief]

 

So you wouldn't trade Addison Reed, Castro, and Pineda?   We are already contending. Believe it or not you can do both.  

If the Twins are in contention, they're not going to trade Reed or Pineda if they are contributing. If the Twins aren't in contention, who cares. If Reed or Pineda aren't contributing, they might be released, but they have zero trade value.

 

I also strongly doubt they trade Castro, if in contention. 

[ashbury]

This last game had a lot of texture to it, if you look.

The game I was talking about had multiple failures by individual pitchers. Making a flashy, splashy trade isn't going to fix all those holes.

 

Maybe you meant something different than I guessed when you said "contender". I want a serious threat to win a World Series, and I don't think we're that close yet.

 

But sure, if some team is looking to rid themselves of difference-makers, and isn't asking for Royce Lewis and Alex Kirilloff in return, I hope our front office doesn't hang up the phone. Build up the franchise a bit at a time. It's long slow work and I don't think it comes about by deciding one day that we're going to be "aggressive".

 

IMO our front office has to follow the advice given to players, to slow the game down and to make the game come to them. The FO needs to avoid chasing the figurative slider in the dirt, same as them.

[Mike Sixel]

 

The game I was talking about had multiple failures by individual pitchers. Making a flashy, splashy trade isn't going to fix all those holes.

 

Maybe you meant something different than I guessed when you said "contender". I want a serious threat to win a World Series, and I don't think we're that close yet.

 

But sure, if some team is looking to rid themselves of difference-makers, and isn't asking for Royce Lewis and Alex Kirilloff in return, I hope our front office doesn't hang up the phone. Build up the franchise a bit at a time. It's long slow work and I don't think it comes about by deciding one day that we're going to be "aggressive".

 

IMO our front office has to follow the advice given to players, to slow the game down and to make the game come to them. The FO needs to avoid chasing the figurative slider in the dirt, same as them.

 

How do you propose getting close, w/o adding players? Or, do you mean punt on this year too? I'm not sure what your message is?

 

How long until you suggest they do get aggressive? Because they could lose 3-4 starting pitchers after this year....and have to basically start over again. 

[Riverbrian]

Phase One: Currently in Progress until June, See what you have and who you can count on. Don't lock in, Diversify. You don't know which players is going to fall apart and you don't who is going to get hurt. Based on results so far, the Front Office should be mentally preparing for the Phase Two moves that will be necessary if the team remains in contention. You need to use this time to see if your roster has a chance. It sure looks like they do.  

 

Phase Two: Starts in July, Determine if the club is in contention or if the club is not in attention and act accordingly but under no circumstance do you stand still. You are either a buyer or a seller but you are not going to sit still.

 

Phase Two: Plan A: If you are a buyer, Use the performance data from April through June and fill any holes that you have. holes must be filled. Not only do you fill holes, You continue to strengthen depth, meaning if you can pick up a SS for a decent price, Don't let the .400 hitting Jorge Polanco stop you. You don't know if Polanco will be healthy come play off time. Bottom Line: If the the team is winning, you support them. Not supporting them would be bad roster management. 

 

Phase Two: Plan B: If you are a seller, you sell any expiring contract you can to keep feeding the pipeline and increase your odds in future years. 

 

Do Not Sit Still... You move one direction or the other in July but you must move a direction. 

 

Phase Three: September... Start locking in on the players who will be getting the bulk of the playing time for the playoffs, Prepare for all your eventual needs, Get Nelson Cruz some reps in the OF because you might need him to play OF in the national league city. If a starter is going to get bullpen work in the playoffs, get him into the bullpen and see how he does. 

 

Phase Four: Pick a parade route with wide streets so the fans will have enough room to get confetti in their hair. 

[USAFChief]

 

The game I was talking about had multiple failures by individual pitchers. Making a flashy, splashy trade isn't going to fix all those holes.

 

Maybe you meant something different than I guessed when you said "contender". I want a serious threat to win a World Series, and I don't think we're that close yet.

 

But sure, if some team is looking to rid themselves of difference-makers, and isn't asking for Royce Lewis and Alex Kirilloff in return, I hope our front office doesn't hang up the phone. Build up the franchise a bit at a time. It's long slow work and I don't think it comes about by deciding one day that we're going to be "aggressive".

 

IMO our front office has to follow the advice given to players, to slow the game down and to make the game come to them. The FO needs to avoid chasing the figurative slider in the dirt, same as them.

They also can't be Mauer and passively watch strike after strike....take a hack at the fat hanging breaking ball over the middle of the plate, and try to pull it into the seats.

 

They might not be one pitcher away, but one pitcher puts them one pitcher closer. It doesn't have to be a pitcher for only this year, either. That's what Houston saw in Pressly...an asset in a contending year, and an asset going forward for nothing but money, if they chose to do so. I doubt they regret weakening their A level teams.

 

If you're not going to try to take advantage of this situation, when? 

[Vanimal46]

The game I was talking about had multiple failures by individual pitchers. Making a flashy, splashy trade isn't going to fix all those holes.

 

Maybe you meant something different than I guessed when you said "contender". I want a serious threat to win a World Series, and I don't think we're that close yet.

 

But sure, if some team is looking to rid themselves of difference-makers, and isn't asking for Royce Lewis and Alex Kirilloff in return, I hope our front office doesn't hang up the phone. Build up the franchise a bit at a time. It's long slow work and I don't think it comes about by deciding one day that we're going to be "aggressive".

 

IMO our front office has to follow the advice given to players, to slow the game down and to make the game come to them. The FO needs to avoid chasing the figurative slider in the dirt, same as them.

It's hard to go from zero to WS contender in 1 year. You need to take steps in order to achieve the ultimate goal. A great first step is winning the division. Another step is winning a playoff series... Etc, etc.

 

I don't think it's realistic at all to keep punting contention down the road and stumble your way to a WS title.

[yarnivek1972]

How do you propose getting close, w/o adding players? Or, do you mean punt on this year too? I'm not sure what your message is?

 

How long until you suggest they do get aggressive? Because they could lose 3-4 starting pitchers after this year....and have to basically start over again.

Concur, the Twins aren’t going to get closer to WS contender by doing nothing. The last 25 years has proven that.

[TheLeviathan]

I wish baseball teams were more willing to trade pieces this early in the season.  There is no one in the division in our way and we have a ton of ammo to make some nice moves.

 

[yarnivek1972]

I wish baseball teams were more willing to trade pieces this early in the season. There is no one in the division in our way and we have a ton of ammo to make some nice moves.

Make a good enough offer, they’ll listen.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Make a good enough offer, they’ll listen.

You mean “blow them away and they’ll listen”. Most teams simply aren’t interested in trading in April or May, even the really bad teams.

[ashbury]

They also can't be Mauer and passively watch strike after strike....take a hack at the fat hanging breaking ball over the middle of the plate, and try to pull it into the seats.

 

They might not be one pitcher away, but one pitcher puts them one pitcher closer. It doesn't have to be a pitcher for only this year, either. That's what Houston saw in Pressly...an asset in a contending year, and an asset going forward for nothing but money, if they chose to do so. I doubt they regret weakening their A level teams.

 

If you're not going to try to take advantage of this situation, when? 

You took my little metaphor for over-aggressiveness, and pushed it way beyond the situation the FO faces. There isn't an umpire to rule "take your player" and award FalVine a free lottery-ticket prospect from the Giants if Farhan Zaidi makes four straight ridiculous asks in return for MadBum. This isn't anything like a Mauer plate appearance.

 

Sure, I want FalVine to hit it out of the park without hesitation if Zaidi gives them a reasonable offer for taking Bumgarner off his hands. The odds of that happening in early May are small. We may feel motivated, but the potential trading partners do not. Not yet.

 

I wasn't a fan of Terry Ryan's reputed insistence on never initiating trade talks lest he start the negotiations from a position of weakness. But if our new guys call up the Giants in May, the conversation will be short unless they overpay by a LOT. I don't think that's smart management, nor a wise expectation.

 

In any competitive game, forcing it is one of the quickest ways to lose. We tend to remember the times when forcing it led to glorious victory, and there are certainly times to strike, but the history of MLB trading tells us that early May isn't the time most GMs choose, and I in turn choose to heed that experience.

 

When a team is bad, you look for a good group of games like we've had lately as guidance toward which players to build on. But when the team is good, or on the cusp of it, then the analysis has to go the other way, and look to the bad outcomes for guidance. That's why I made a point of that 11-0 stinker the other day. It highlighted the many holes we still have on the roster. Those holes synchronized to make for one painful game. But in the course of a long season, each of those individual failures could instead torpedo a winnable game on its own. That was my point in bringing it up, in response to the original post in this thread talking about acquiring a pitcher.

 

Having someone like Ryan Pressly would not have appreciably changed the outcome of that game. By extension, his presence wouldn't spare us enough of the spread-out version of damage either.

 

I thought the original post was actually advocating a big trade for a stud starting pitcher, and my reply was meant in that light. Maybe I misunderstood. But if the focus is on the bullpen, one acquisition isn't going to turn us from cute story to contender, in the words of that original post.

 

I wasn't pleased that the bullpen needs weren't addressed in the off-season. But I think aggressively pursuing a trade in May could compound the error.

[USAFChief]

You took my little metaphor for being over-aggressiveness, and pushed it way beyond the situation the FO faces. There isn't an umpire to rule "take your player" and award FalVine a free lottery-ticket prospect from the Giants if Farhan Zaidi makes four straight ridiculous asks in return for MadBum. This isn't anything like a Mauer plate appearance.

 

Sure, I want FalVine to hit it out of the park without hesitation if Zaidi gives them a reasonable offer for taking Bumgarner off his hands. The odds of that happening in early May are small. We may feel motivated, but the potential trading partners do not. Not yet.

 

I wasn't a fan of Terry Ryan's reputed insistence on never initiating trade talks lest he start the negotiations from a position of weakness. But if our new guys call up the Giants in May, the conversation will be short unless they overpay by a LOT. I don't think that's smart management, nor a wise expectation.

 

In any competitive game, forcing it is one of the quickest ways to lose. We tend to remember the times when forcing it led to glorious victory, and there are certainly times to strike, but the history of MLB trading tells us that early May isn't the time most GMs choose, and I in turn choose to heed that experience.

 

When a team is bad, you look for a good group of games like we've had lately as guidance toward which players to build on. But when the team is good, or on the cusp of it, then the analysis has to go the other way, and look to the bad outcomes for guidance. That's why I made a point of that 11-0 stinker the other day. It highlighted the many holes we still have on the roster. Those holes synchronized to make for one painful game. But in the course of a long season, each of those individual failures could instead torpedo a winnable game on its own. That was my point in bringing it up, in response to the original post in this thread talking about acquiring a pitcher.

 

Having someone like Ryan Pressly would not have appreciably changed the outcome of that game. By extension, his presence wouldn't spare us enough of the spread-out version of damage either.

 

I actually thought the original post was advocating a big trade for a stud starting pitcher, and my reply was meant in that light. Maybe I misunderstood. But if the focus is on the bullpen, one acquisition isn't going to turn us from cute story to contender, in the words of that original post.

 

I wasn't pleased that the bullpen needs weren't addressed in the off-season. But I think aggressively pursuing a trade in May could compound the error.

no, having someone like Pressly wouldn't change that one game. But it would have a large chance of affecting the numerous 1, 2, and 3 run games upcoming between now and the end of July. There'll be plenty of them, and not many 10 run games, I wager.

 

We are under new management. I hope "trades dont happen yet, because that's the way its always been done" is a relic of the past, along with many of the other relics we needed to out behind us.

[Riverbrian]

 

 

We all think the Giants are out of it but please keep in mind that it's May and the Giants are not out of it yet. 

 

The Giants could have traded Bumgarner during the off-season... they didn't. That means they haven't gotten the high price they are asking or they hung on to him to help them compete. None of those things will be changed by the 1st week of May.  

 

The off-season is when you acquire your players. The sensible options have all been taken once the season starts. 

 

Leaving non-sensible options for awhile. 

 

 

[TNTwinsFan]

Two words: Will Smith

[nicksaviking]

 

So you wouldn't trade Addison Reed, Castro, and Pineda?   We are already contending. Believe it or not you can do both.  

 

Who would trade for Reed or Pineda? Reed is almost certainly going to be DFA material if the team is no longer able to stash him on the IL.

[nicksaviking]

I wouldn't mind a non-rental starter, in fact I'd probably prefer it based on the status of the 2020 rotation. I'd like to see about getting Jon Gray if the Rockies struggle, if he or that team had any intent on an extension I'd think they would have done so already seeing as they extended Marquez.

 

Another name that sounds blah, but I think could be good is Anthony DeSclafani. He's having a good year now so they probably couldn't get him for peanuts like they could have in the offseason, but he looks encouraging to me and like the kind of pitcher the Twins have been targeting. Like Kyle Gibson in 2018 and Martin Perez this year, he really lowered his two seamer and increased his four seamer usage. Also like Perez, he brought out his cutter, a pitch he didn't throw since 2016.

 

And a name that will probably turn stomachs, Jeff Samardzija has rebounded. He's lost velocity, but like DeSclafani and the Twins pitchers, he's decreased his two seamer and increased his four seamer usage.

[terrydactyls]

To show how far Addison Reed has fallen, I initially thought we were talking about Jake Reed.

Me too! Is Addison Reed still the roster?

[USAFChief]

 

Me too! Is Addison Reed still the roster?

posthumously.

[nicksaviking]

 

Make a good enough offer, they’ll listen.

 

I think that would just set a baseline for what the team would expect to get once they open up bidding to everyone else. 

 

Then they wait another month because time is on their side.

[terrydactyls]

 

 

I somehow have this peculiar notion in my head that they actually LIKE what they have in terms of pitching depth a lot more than we do. I mean, could it be that they think that if Pineda falters or someone else comes up lame that they can count on a couple of the AAA or AA guys to step up among the ranks of Thorpe, Gonsalves, Graterol, Stewart, and Littell? Scary thought, but hey, we've been nervous about a lot of players who are showing signs of being more than just filler until 2020, in particular Odor and Perez in the rotation.

 

It may be cheesy to say but depending on Stewart/Littell might be a little too cartoonish to think about.....

 

[PseudoSABR]

As for the rotation, Stroman looks to be a better buy than Bumgardner.  And I'd also keep an eye on Archer if the Pirates fall out of contention.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

And a name that will probably turn stomachs, Jeff Samardzija has rebounded.

That's probably the only type of player who's available for reasonable cost right now -- a contract that another team would like to shed while they can. Although even the Shields trade netted Tatis Jr. for the Padres...

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

As for the rotation, Stroman looks to be a better buy than Bumgardner.  And I'd also keep an eye on Archer if the Pirates fall out of contention.

Stroman and Archer both have team control beyond this season too, so they could be notably more expensive than Bumgarner.

[PseudoSABR]

 

Stroman and Archer both have team control beyond this season too, so they could be notably more expensive than Bumgarner.

Given the state of the 2020 rotation, I'd be fine with that expenditure. Though Lewis/Kiriloff/Graterol are untouchable, but I still think there's enough in the system to get a trade like that done.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Given the state of the 2020 rotation, I'd be fine with that expenditure. Though Lewis/Kiriloff/Graterol are untouchable, but I still think there's enough in the system to get a trade like that done.

I don't think so. The Rays got quite a bit for Archer just last summer -- a recent top 10-20, MLB ready SP prospect (Glasnow), a top-50, MLB ready OF prospect (Meadows), and the 12th overall pick from 1 year before, another SP who had also been on top 100 lists already (Baz). The Twins have a deep system, but they don't quite have assets like that yet outside of Lewis/Kirilloff/Graterol.

 

Now, perhaps the Pirates made a questionable trade and you can't necessarily use it as a baseline, but I don't see them moving on from Archer this season without getting a considerable return. And that likely means quality over quantity. Likewise for the Jays and Stroman -- if they're not getting a great return, something to immediately jump start their rebuild around Vlad Jr., they can hold on to him for the offseason or even the 2020 deadline.

 

If Lewis/Kirilloff/Graterol are really untouchable, the best you can probably hope for in 2019 is Bumgarner (and that might depend on how Bumgarner pitches and what kind of bidding war emerges for him).

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I’m not ready to get a starter... yet.

 

I’ve been ready to get a reliever going on six months.

 

But yes, this is the year to be aggressive. It’s basically impossible to make a decent trade at this point of the season but roll the dice with some aggressive call-ups, maybe you get lucky.

Pineda looks gassed and I keep wondering when Perez is going to turn back into a pumpkin. None of the AAA reinforcements have given me much hope for the rotation. I’m ready to make a deal for one starter.

 

100% agreed on the bullpen.

[PseudoSABR]

 

I don't think so. The Rays got quite a bit for Archer just last summer -- a recent top 10-20, MLB ready SP prospect (Glasnow), a top-50, MLB ready OF prospect (Meadows), and the 12th overall pick from 1 year before, another SP who had also been on top 100 lists already (Baz). The Twins have a deep system, but they don't quite have assets like that yet outside of Lewis/Kirilloff/Graterol.

 

Now, perhaps the Pirates made a questionable trade and you can't necessarily use it as a baseline, but I don't see them moving on from Archer this season without getting a considerable return. And that likely means quality over quantity. Likewise for the Jays and Stroman -- if they're not getting a great return, something to immediately jump start their rebuild around Vlad Jr., they can hold on to him for the offseason or even the 2020 deadline.

 

If Lewis/Kirilloff/Graterol are really untouchable, the best you can probably hope for in 2019 is Bumgarner (and that might depend on how Bumgarner pitches and what kind of bidding war emerges for him).

Well, the Pirates did pay for one additional year of control (for a total of ~2.3 years of control), and we'd be getting ~1.3-1.5 years of control, so I think the return can be discounted not quite proportionally (~40%), but still significantly (~25-30%).   Javier + Lanarch + Duran would be a pretty competitive offer.   (And Glasnow's value had been some what muted by his disastrous 2017 and his pedestrian 2018)

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Well, the Pirates did pay for one additional year of control (for a total of ~2.3 years of control), and we'd be getting ~1.3-1.5 years of control, so I think the return can be discounted not quite proportionally (~40%), but still significantly (~25-30%).   Javier + Lanarch + Duran would be a pretty competitive offer.   (And Glasnow's value had been some what muted by his disastrous 2017 and his pedestrian 2018)

You're missing a year, as Archer is controlled through 2021. Stroman is through 2020.

 

Also, you're discounting on quality across the board. I'd guess the Pirates preferred discount, should they even view it that way, would be a discount on quantity (i.e. i.e. lopping off the third prospect, but still aiming for similar quality in the top 2). Again, quality over quantity. If Archer is performing better than he was last summer, that could offset any potential discount too.

 

I admit Javier is a bit of a wild card -- if he can come back soon and start raking while playing up the middle, he'd be an interesting asset.

 

The others? I don't know. They're not bad, but they're also not special enough to think a team couldn't get comparable offers from a number of other teams, either at this deadline, this offseason, or at the 2020 deadline. Even if the Pirates or Jays saw an urgency to make a deal this summer, that package might be one of 5 or more similar ones.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

If the Twins are in contention, they're not going to trade Reed or Pineda if they are contributing. If the Twins aren't in contention, who cares. If Reed or Pineda aren't contributing, they might be released, but they have zero trade value.

 

I also strongly doubt they trade Castro, if in contention. 

 

I guess that one depends on how confident they are that Astrudillo can be the #2 C behind Garver. I'm cautiously optimistic on that, and if they got a lights out reliever from a team with an abundance of BP but in need of a C, I think that trade works... no idea if there's a potential match out there though, and if not, I tend to agree with you. Castro would stay.