Take Advantage of the Banked Wins

[USAFChief]

 

To show how far Addison Reed has fallen, I initially thought we were talking about Jake Reed.

Nice to be remembered, man!

[yarnivek1972]

It still baffles me that JAKE Reed has yet to even get a shot at the MLB level. He has nothing to prove at AAA. He’s either capable of getting outs at the MLB level or he’s not. IMO, the Twins owe it to him and themselves to find out.

[jtkoupal]

 

https://twitter.com/AaronGleeman/status/1123217452521758721?s=19

With a couple of savvy pitching transactions they could move the needle to 90+ wins.

FiveThirtyEight has the Twins now winning 90 games.

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-mlb-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo

[howieramone2]

 

Do we have any new info on him?  What was his injury, anyway? Was it a classic case of "he can't get anyone out so he must be injured"?

I have no clue when he maybe available. My understanding is he injured his thumb on his non-pitching hand.

[Mike Sixel]

Nothing will happen for months. Which is a very risk adverse approach, but that's sports.

 

Whatever happens until July will be internal, which is a problem given how little help the draft has provided for several years now. There just aren't many difference makers that have come up in a couple years now. And AAA looks meh for difference makers.

 

I still hope they'll do the unthinkable, and deal prospects to add help, but in three years, we've not seen it. When does the sustained competitiveness, and trying to win, start? Hopefully this year.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

FiveThirtyEight has the Twins now winning 90 games.

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-mlb-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo

Fangraphs has us winning 90 now too.

 

Basically, they still have us very near their preseason projection going forward (.539 rest-of-season winning percentage, versus .527 preseason) -- but as the title of this thread suggests, we've "banked" 3-4 wins above that level already. And a projection is always based on neutral luck going forward -- not bad luck to balance out any good luck we've already received.

 

Of course, we know a bad luck month can happen in real life, just like a good luck one. The 2015 Twins were mentioned already; I think that also happened to the 2017 Royals after their big winning streak around the trade deadline, and the 2018 Mariners during the season too.

[bighat]

 

Well, Bumgarner isn't even 30 years old yet, so you figure there would be some chance of a renaissance. Although we wouldn't need him to be an ace to be valuable.

 

The track record of career NL-starters with a few drops of gas left in the tank coming over to the AL isn't very stellar.

 

I'm all for Will Smith from SF, but I think I'll pass on BumG.

[yarnivek1972]

The track record of career NL-starters with a few drops of gas left in the tank coming over to the AL isn't very stellar.

 

I'm all for Will Smith from SF, but I think I'll pass on BumG.

I’m certainly jiggy wit’ it...

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The track record of career NL-starters with a few drops of gas left in the tank coming over to the AL isn't very stellar.

 

I'm all for Will Smith from SF, but I think I'll pass on BumG.

Anecdotally, I think you can come up with examples that did just fine coming over to the AL (Hamels), or at least provided value to their teams (regular season / postseason). I'm sure there are examples the other way too, but the samples so small, and the players so different, I'm not sure it really rises above the anecdotal level when we consider how it might affect one specific player, in one specific season.

 

I'm not saying there wouldn't be risk. But there's risk with everyone. And we wouldn't need him to be great forever, just looking for a solid partial season / postseason. You can pass him up, but there's not likely to be a better guy available. (And obviously the risk would depend on the cost, which I admit might be prohibitive, especially this early in the season.)

[Doomtints]

 

Nothing will happen for months. Which is a very risk adverse approach, but that's sports.

Whatever happens until July will be internal, which is a problem given how little help the draft has provided for several years now. There just aren't many difference makers that have come up in a couple years now. And AAA looks meh for difference makers.

I still hope they'll do the unthinkable, and deal prospects to add help, but in three years, we've not seen it. When does the sustained competitiveness, and trying to win, start? Hopefully this year.

 

But gosh the Window is not open yet.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

FiveThirtyEight has the Twins now winning 90 games.

Even the most reactionary, knee-jerk fan, has nothing on these stats services.

 

"Oh, suddenly the Twins are good?"

 

 

edit: not an anti-538 post

[nicksaviking]

Well, Bumgarner isn't even 30 years old yet, so you figure there would be some chance of a renaissance. Although we wouldn't need him to be an ace to be valuable.

I feel better about renaissance pitchers when they have plus velocity and/or strikeout potential.

 

But like I said, I’d take a chance on Bumgarner.

[ashbury]

I’m certainly jiggy wit’ it...

"Dad, don't. Just ... don't." -- Everybody's daughter or son

[jorgenswest]

I think they would lose their third highest pick. Is that their second round pick overall number 54?

 

Just looked up the history of pick 54

 

Top 5 below

 

Scott Sanderson

Randy Wolf

Brett Tomko

Tommy Hunter

Steve Ontiveros

 

There were no significant pick 54s but I think it is about a 2% chance you land on a truly great player in that range.

 

I will take the greater certainty of Kimbrel for a few years without a second thought.

[jtkoupal]

 

Even the most reactionary, knee-jerk fan, has nothing on these stats services.

 

"Oh, suddenly the Twins are good?"

 

 

edit: not an anti-538 post

Pretty sure 538 had the Twins winning 85 games on Opening Day. Their team rating hasn't gone up much, but they assume neutral luck and have already surpassed their expected win total by a few games to this point. I, myself, am skeptical of that. I still think 90 is a tad lofty. I'm still in a "wait and see" mindset. But hey, ya never know! It's fun to get excited from time to time, unlike last year when it was pretty much over at this point.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Pretty sure 538 had the Twins winning 85 games on Opening Day. Their team rating hasn't gone up much, but they assume neutral luck and have already surpassed their expected win total by a few games to this point. I, myself, am skeptical of that. I still think 90 is a tad lofty. I'm still in a "wait and see" mindset. But hey, ya never know! It's fun to get excited from time to time, unlike last year when it was pretty much over at this point.

Completely Agree! Not disputing the models, just trying to tweak some noses. It’s a long season. A lot will change between now and then. Great to be a fan right now.

[ashbury]

After yesterday's 11-0 debacle, does anyone still think we're one pitcher away?

[Vanimal46]

After yesterday's 11-0 debacle, does anyone still think we're one pitcher away?

Sure, it's one game.

[ashbury]

it's one game.

Of course. But that one game had a lot of texture to it, if you look.

[Vanimal46]

Of course. But that one game had a lot of texture to it, if you look.

Meh, I don't get caught up in the daily aspect of this team anymore. They're still 7 games over .500 at the end of April and banked a few wins this month.

[Tomj14]

 

I think they would lose their third highest pick. Is that their second round pick overall number 54?

Just looked up the history of pick 54

Top 5 below

Scott Sanderson
Randy Wolf
Brett Tomko
Tommy Hunter
Steve Ontiveros

There were no significant pick 54s but I think it is about a 2% chance you land on a truly great player in that range.

I will take the greater certainty of Kimbrel for a few years without a second thought.

But you get say how great of prospect that pick is, until he isn't.

[Tomj14]

 

 

Meh, I don't get caught up in the daily aspect of this team anymore. They're still 7 games over .500 at the end of April and banked a few wins this month.

don't forget the night before they had a shut out.

Mejia has been terrible all year, and if they switched him (a relief pitcher from another team or a current FA) out like everybody has begging for that makes the bullpen much much better.

[Mike Sixel]

After yesterday's 11-0 debacle, does anyone still think we're one pitcher away?

Does it matter? If they are two, getting one gets them closer.

 

When does the FO act like they think this is a winning team? Because they haven't yet, imo. If they want better attendence, maybe the team should act like they are trying their hardest to win, at the FO level.

[howieramone2]

 

Does it matter? If they are two, getting one gets them closer.

When does the FO act like they think this is a winning team? Because they haven't yet, imo. If they want better attendence, maybe the team should act like they are trying their hardest to win, at the FO level.

If they want better attendance all they have to do is wait for it to warm up. Also the Cruz signing was a big win-now move. They are still evaluating their current bullpen arms, and yes mid-market teams never stop evaluating. Harper is likely gone and Magill is not helping his case. I would not be surprised to see Mejia and board favorite May disappear. They will make plenty of moves at the deadline.

[Vanimal46]

If they want better attendance all they have to do is wait for it to warm up. Also the Cruz signing was a big win-now move. They are still evaluating their current bullpen arms, and yes mid-market teams never stop evaluating. Harper is likely gone and Magill is not helping his case. I would not be surprised to see Mejia and board favorite May disappear. They will make plenty of moves at the deadline.

They'll probably get more walk up sales as it warms up, but the number of season ticket holders is what it is. I assume the 12k number that keeps popping up is the amount of season ticket holders.

 

People who actually purchase the tickets would know more than me... Don't they have to commit to another season by December/January? The decrease in ST holders could be a result of this FO making their moves in March instead of December/January.

[howieramone2]

 

They'll probably get more walk up sales as it warms up, but the number of season ticket holders is what it is. I assume the 12k number that keeps popping up is the amount of season ticket holders.

People who actually purchase the tickets would know more than me... Don't they have to commit to another season by December/January? The decrease in ST holders could be a result of this FO making their moves in March instead of December/January.

I'm not a season ticket holder, but go to 15-20 games per year, only when it's warm. I played college baseball in North Dakota and I'm still thawing out.

[yarnivek1972]

After yesterday's 11-0 debacle, does anyone still think we're one pitcher away?

Sure, if that pitcher is Sandy Koufax.

[Mike Sixel]

 

If they want better attendance all they have to do is wait for it to warm up. Also the Cruz signing was a big win-now move. They are still evaluating their current bullpen arms, and yes mid-market teams never stop evaluating. Harper is likely gone and Magill is not helping his case. I would not be surprised to see Mejia and board favorite May disappear. They will make plenty of moves at the deadline.

 

I'm not interested in more building for the future anymore....so I hope they are buying at the deadline, not selling.

[howieramone2]

 

I'm not interested in more building for the future anymore....so I hope they are buying at the deadline, not selling.

I'm sure they will sell some of the expiring contracts for prospects, but they will make win-now moves. No reason you can't do both. Reed and Castro will probably not yield major league ready pitching, but presumably have trade value if healthy. 

 

Depending on who they decide to retain, we should be able to get pen arms for Gibson, Pineda, and/or Ordirizzi. 

[jkcarew]

 

After yesterday's 11-0 debacle, does anyone still think we're one pitcher away?

I don't. And didn't. At least in terms of being good in the context of the league. So, I'm with you there.

 

Club is only beating one type of team. Bad ones. Non-divisional opponents that are not Baltimore...record 5-9; run differential...62-83.

 

Thing is, in 2019, you can win an AL Central with that. Sometimes punting is the right thing to do...but it's going to be awkward if the FO finds themselves in a position of punting on a division title.