Buxton Stolen Base Streak

[AlwaysinModeration]

Back on May 23, 2017 in Baltimore, Byron Buxton led off the third inning with a walk off of Dylan Bundy. After a foul bunt pop-up out (come on Dozier, gotta get that bunt down), Robbie Grossman came to the plate, and Byron duly took off for second. Wellington Castillo threw down to second and JJ Hardy received the throw, but Buxton had already reached the bag safely, as he usually does. Unfortunately, Buxton’s momentum - as it sometimes does - carried him past the bag, and Hardy (as he often does) alertly tagged Buxton out. Now, you can debate whether Buxton should be credited with a stolen base for getting to the base ahead of the throw, but the box score - and the record books - now reflect this as a caught stealing of second base.

 

Since that moment, Buxton has not been caught stealing again.

 

In 2017 he went on to steal:

 

4 more in May

4 in June

3 in July

8 in August

and

5 in September

 

That totaled 24 consecutive stolen bases without a caught stealing against.

 

In 2018, as we all know, Buxton had a lost season. Well, that’s not entirely true. He did not, in fact, lose everything that season. He did not lose an out on the base paths due to a caught stealing, nor, therefore, did he lose his consecutive stolen base streak. He stole:

 

1 bag in March

3 bases in April

and

1 more base in May

 

It wasn’t much, but it did add five more steals to his totals, bringing his running total up to 29 consecutive bases stolen without being caught.

 

This year, Byron has started the season is 3 for 3 on the bases. He missed out on nabbing a March steal, but he has notched steals in three different April games - thus far.

 

So as of today, (April 13, 2019) Byron Buxton has 32 consecutive steals without being caught.

 

Where does that stack up? Those 32 steals means that he’s already got the Twins record for consecutive steals. In the history of MLB, there are only 8 men who have gotten to 35 consecutive steals, including three who have done it twice (Davey Lopes, Jimmy Rollins, and Tim Raines.). Three have managed 40 or more; Raines (40), Ichiro (45), and the all-time record is held by Vince Coleman, who managed a nice round 50 consecutive stolen bases without being caught.

 

So just exactly how far Buxton can climb up this list is the question. Or rather, the questions:

 

—Will he become the ninth player in MLB history to steal 35 straight bases?

 

—Will he keep the streak alive until May 23, thus going two whole years without getting caught?

 

—Will he join Raines, Ichiro and Coleman as the fourth all-time to notch 40 consecutive stolen bases?

 

—Or...will he manage 19 more straight steals, thereby getting to 51 and setting a new MLB record?

 

Let the countdown begin.

Run, Buxton, Run!

[sampleSizeOfOne]

Yes!

[Doctor Wu]

We all know that Buxton is very fast ,but the most encouraging part about this streak is that he's not getting caught. At all. Obviously, it's going to come to an end at some point, but it will be fun to watch the streak continue. What do you attribute his stealing success to? It can't only be his speed. Has he become a much smarter base stealer and/or getting better leads off the base? Better knowledge of the pitchers and catchers respective strengths and weaknesses? For all our criticism of Buxton's sometimes reckless way of crashing into center field walls, it seems like he's more aware and astute on the base paths.

[notoriousgod71]

When Buxton inevitably gets hurt it will be quite amazing to see this streak hit four years.

[diehardtwinsfan]

the fast that he has this few is (to me at least) a bigger problem. He doesn't get caught. He should be sent more. 

[jkcarew]

The problem with the stolen base statistic, is that it still doesn't account for getting picked off. Outs on the bases are extremely damaging, and it's pretty weird that base-running statistics still don't (at least prominently) account for instances of getting picked off...(let alone other instances of getting thrown out on the bases trying to advance the extra base). Has Buxton been picked off during this streak? And if not, perhaps he already has the 'truer' record, or is closer to the record than we realize.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

We all know that Buxton is very fast ,but the most encouraging part about this streak is that he's not getting caught. At all. Obviously, it's going to come to an end at some point, but it will be fun to watch the streak continue. What do you attribute his stealing success to? It can't only be his speed. Has he become a much smarter base stealer and/or getting better leads off the base? Better knowledge of the pitchers and catchers respective strengths and weaknesses? For all our criticism of Buxton's sometimes reckless way of crashing into center field walls, it seems like he's more aware and astute on the base paths.

well put!

 

he’s clearly a student of base stealing. I’d love to see the same thoughtful aggression in the field.

[jkcarew]

 

the fast that he has this few is (to me at least) a bigger problem. He doesn't get caught. He should be sent more. 

As the old saying goes...it's hard to steal first base.

 

Between injuries and the career .288 OBP...

Anyway, I think he's been reasonably aggressive...but yeah...can push it a bit more probably given the success rate, maybe missing some opportunities by waiting too deep into the counts, etc.

[Mr. Brooks]

The problem with the stolen base statistic, is that it still doesn't account for getting picked off. Outs on the bases are extremely damaging, and it's pretty weird that base-running statistics still don't (at least prominently) account for instances of getting picked off...(let alone other instances of getting thrown out on the bases trying to advance the extra base). Has Buxton been picked off during this streak? And if not, perhaps he already has the 'truer' record, or is closer to the record than we realize.

I think getting picked off does count as a CS.

[jkcarew]

 

I think getting picked off does count as a CS.

I don't think so. But if you're right...then, never mind

[Mr. Brooks]

I don't think so. But if you're right...then, never mind

Upon further research, it sometimes does, and sometimes doesn't. If the runner has already left for the next base, it counts as a caught stealing. If they haven't, it doesn't.

[diehardtwinsfan]

probably the more important question at this point, but at what point does Rocco move him up in the order? He's not off to one of his slow starts, so perhaps getting him a bit higher might be wise.

[Brock Beauchamp]

probably the more important question at this point, but at what point does Rocco move him up in the order? He's not off to one of his slow starts, so perhaps getting him a bit higher might be wise.

I think caution is the word of the day.

 

And given the depth in this lineup, it’s not like Buxton batting ninth is killing their run-scoring opportunities.

 

My personal stance is wait until the calendar rolls into May and then make a decision.

[ashbury]

I think caution is the word of the day.

 

And given the depth in this lineup, it’s not like Buxton batting ninth is killing their run-scoring opportunities.

The only thing that bothers me is that on days the catcher bats 8th, the base clogging kills Buxton's run-scoring opportu-... oh wait, Castro's the one who hits 8th, and he doesn't clog anything.

[AlwaysinModeration]

 

I think caution is the word of the day. 

 

I think he is very cautious.  He only steals when he knows he will make it.  That means very rarely against lefties, and almost never third base, and frankly, not that often in other circumstances.

 

Makes me wonder if he is aware of the streak, and wants to gun for the record.  Which...I'm ok with.  After he breaks the record, though, I'd like to see him steal third some more (or some).

[Shaitan]

 

I think he is very cautious.  He only steals when he knows he will make it.  That means very rarely against lefties, and almost never third base, and frankly, not that often in other circumstances.

 

Makes me wonder if he is aware of the streak, and wants to gun for the record.  Which...I'm ok with.  After he breaks the record, though, I'd like to see him steal third some more (or some).

Why? He can score from 2nd on almost any ball put in play.

[RatherBeGolfing]

 

I think he is very cautious.  He only steals when he knows he will make it.  That means very rarely against lefties, and almost never third base, and frankly, not that often in other circumstances.

 

Makes me wonder if he is aware of the streak, and wants to gun for the record.  Which...I'm ok with.  After he breaks the record, though, I'd like to see him steal third some more (or some).

 

To your first point, I'd somewhat agree. I don't know if it is cautious or what but I also believe that he should be trying to steal second basically every time he gets on first. I realize that's hyperbolic but to me, odds are more often than not, he's going to make it there, I'm all for him having the green light and encouraging him to go for it each time he gets on first.

 

To your second point, I wouldn't mind it but the thing is, he's so fast, he's going to score from second on just about any hit anyway. Would help obviously for sac flies to get him in and wild pitches and such but the upside for him to steal third from second probably isn't as high as it is from first to second

[USAFChief]

 

Why? He can score from 2nd on almost any ball put in play.

I think you meant to say he can score from 2nd on almost any hit to the outfield.

 

The value of being on 3rd base, rather than 2nd base, with less than 2 outs is pretty huge...he can score without benefit of a hit.

 

I'm with diehard...the consecutive SB record is nice, but means he's not running enough. He should be stealing more often. If he stole twice as many bases, but got caught around 15 percent of the time, that would be a net positive.

[BrianTrottier]

 

To your first point, I'd somewhat agree. I don't know if it is cautious or what but I also believe that he should be trying to steal second basically every time he gets on first. I realize that's hyperbolic but to me, odds are more often than not, he's going to make it there, I'm all for him having the green light and encouraging him to go for it each time he gets on first.

 

To your second point, I wouldn't mind it but the thing is, he's so fast, he's going to score from second on just about any hit anyway. Would help obviously for sac flies to get him in and wild pitches and such but the upside for him to steal third from second probably isn't as high as it is from first to second

 

I would like to see him swipe third more, but only so that he can then swipe home.

[Shaitan]

 

I think you meant to say he can score from 2nd on almost any hit to the outfield.

 

The value of being on 3rd base, rather than 2nd base, with less than 2 outs is pretty huge...he can score without benefit of a hit.

 

I'm with diehard...the consecutive SB record is nice, but means he's not running enough. He should be stealing more often. If he stole twice as many bases, but got caught around 15 percent of the time, that would be a net positive.

Nah, he can score on a hit in the infield too. I'm bad at embeds on this board, but we've all seen the end of Major League 

 

Of course there are times when stealing 3rd is okay, but I'd rather have a runner on 2nd with 1 out than nobody on base with 2 outs.

 

I think the real reason he doesn't have many steals in his career is because he hasn't hit so far. Let's hope it improves this year, as it has so far.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I think caution is the word of the day.

And given the depth in this lineup, it’s not like Buxton batting ninth is killing their run-scoring opportunities.

My personal stance is wait until the calendar rolls into May and then make a decision.

That's not a bad take at all. I was thinking more 6th-8th anyways, moving him ahead of Schoop and Gonzalez and see how he reacts... not ready to drop him in the leadoff spot just yet. 

[AlwaysinModeration]

33

[yarnivek1972]

the fast that he has this few is (to me at least) a bigger problem. He doesn't get caught. He should be sent more.

He has to be ON base in order to steal. With no one on ahead of him.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

The great thing about Buxton stealing second base is the head-first pop up slide. We may never see him overslide the bag again, because he can somehow go head first to the ground, into the base, and an instant later stand himself up while still bent at the waist holding the bag with his hands. Just watch. Hamilton couldn’t quite do that. I’ve tried to look at some clips of Henderson, and he didn’t do that (at least in the clips I saw). The streak is wonderful, but if it ends I won’t mind, because the speed and skill Buxton has stealing second base is second to none.

[DiscGolfer]

He doesn't need to steal second when he hits a double and he's there already.  No real need for him to steal third if he can score from second on just about any hit.

[jimbo92107]

I have zero concern for any consecutive steals record. Best use of Buxton is as a disruptive force on the base paths. That means stealing second, third, and home. Obviously, stealing home is the hardest, but when there's a ridiculous shift, or a lefty pitcher that looks at the ground during the set...then he should go for it. 

 

Not being 100 percent successful is fine by me. Meanwhile, Buxton's presence at first, second or third base should be making the pitcher nervous as hell. He should be dancing, thumbing his nose, saying "nyah-nyah," etc. He should be drawing a dozen pick off throws per game. Each one is a chance for the pitcher to throw one past the baseman. Each time he checks on Buxton, he's thinking about Buxton, not the hitter or the strike zone. Buxton can make a pitcher lose his poise, and his cool. It's that kind of incessant pressure that tells me I would green light him to steal every time he's on base, and I would NEVER, EVER criticize Buxton for getting caught. 

 

Buxton as he is right now is worth almost a run a game. If he starts stealing third, he'll be worth closer to two runs per game. That's not just because he's a threat to steal, but because the hitter is facing a pitcher whose attention is divided. Pitchers like that throw balls into the dirt, or right down the middle. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I have zero concern for any consecutive steals record. Best use of Buxton is as a disruptive force on the base paths. That means stealing second, third, and home. Obviously, stealing home is the hardest, but when there's a ridiculous shift, or a lefty pitcher that looks at the ground during the set...then he should go for it. 

 

Not being 100 percent successful is fine by me. Meanwhile, Buxton's presence at first, second or third base should be making the pitcher nervous as hell. He should be dancing, thumbing his nose, saying "nyah-nyah," etc. He should be drawing a dozen pick off throws per game. Each one is a chance for the pitcher to throw one past the baseman. Each time he checks on Buxton, he's thinking about Buxton, not the hitter or the strike zone. Buxton can make a pitcher lose his poise, and his cool. It's that kind of incessant pressure that tells me I would green light him to steal every time he's on base, and I would NEVER, EVER criticize Buxton for getting caught. 

 

Buxton as he is right now is worth almost a run a game. If he starts stealing third, he'll be worth closer to two runs per game. That's not just because he's a threat to steal, but because the hitter is facing a pitcher whose attention is divided. Pitchers like that throw balls into the dirt, or right down the middle. 

You're wildly overstating the value of disruption in runs per game but I agree with you.

Literally, a guy who is worth two runs per game is worth 324 runs per season. The average team scores roughly 750-800 runs per season.

 

Buxton, like every major leaguer who isn't Barry Bonds, works within the margins.

 

Again, I agree that Buxton could be a larger asset if he acted more like Rickey Henderson than Vince Coleman. Henderson was, in my opinion, slower than Coleman, but Rickey had an attitude to screw with the defense and pitcher that Vince did not.

 

And in today's game, I think the ability to mess with a pitcher's head is more important than actually taking the base. Distract them, force the fastball.

[jimbo92107]

 

You're wildly overstating the value of disruption in runs per game but I agree with you.

Literally, a guy who is worth two runs per game is worth 324 runs per season. The average team scores roughly 750-800 runs per season.

 

Buxton, like every major leaguer who isn't Barry Bonds, works within the margins.

 

Again, I agree that Buxton could be a larger asset if he acted more like Rickey Henderson than Vince Coleman. Henderson was, in my opinion, slower than Coleman, but Rickey had an attitude to screw with the defense and pitcher that Vince did not.

 

And in today's game, I think the ability to mess with a pitcher's head is more important than actually taking the base. Distract them, force the fastball.

If I were manager, I would tell Buxton that unless a pitcher has one of the quickest deliveries to home and the catcher is renowned for his great arm, to steal on every pitch. Especially in today's game, where more and more pitchers have less and less expertise holding runners, Buxton's running game could disrupt the way pitchers and catchers interact. 

 

Right now Buxton's success rate is 100 percent. I'd want him to push his luck until his success rate was around 90 percent. That would at least double his stolen base totals, and would drive opponents crazy. What do you do, keep checking the runner until the crowd boos you off the field? Throw one pitch-out after another? 

 

I agree with you that attitude is the main thing holding back Buxton. Rickey Henderson LOVED to irritate pitchers. Could be that Buxton is too polite to think that way. He steals second because he's supposed to, not because he loves it. I just wish Baldy would tell Buxton to start stealing third, every chance. There's no way he would get caught more than 1 time in 10, especially when he learns to stretch the lead at 2nd base. Even if he gets picked off, he'd have a fair chance of making it to 3rd anyway. if he breaks for 3rd and the pitcher throws behind him to 2nd. Just do the old Carew pop-up slide with both hands in the air. Ball would hit him in the back half the time...

 

You're right, I get a little too giddy about Buxton and his speed. It's candy, man!

[h2oface]

 

Why? He can score from 2nd on almost any ball put in play.

 

But not on almost any fly ball with one out or less!

[h2oface]

The Twins are currently the worst base stealing team in MLB, with 4 total as a team, all Buxton. They are 4/7..... only 7 total base stealing attempts.  KC has 27, Seattle 22, and even the White Sox have 20 and are 20/24!