Harper To Phillies

[cardsfan]

When Harper is hitting .214 at the ASG break wait and see Philly fans boo him and throw items. What a disaster. He isn't going to get them to the playoffs. Pat Burrell is re-incarnated.

[gman]

I think I like the fact that the Twins didn't sign him to that deal. Not that they would have, but I see a real albatross hanging around Philly.

[TheLeviathan]

I think players are less worried about the AAV as they are with the shortening of contract offers.  I think Harper was planting his flag for future players with this contract.  Sure, he could've probably gotten a few years at 40M or something, but what players want is security not short payouts.  

 

Plus, as mentioned earlier, I wouldn't underestimate the importance of what the next CBA might mean for a short term deal.

[kydoty]

By the time that contract is done, the Mets will still be paying Bobby Bonilla.

[ChrisKnutson]

Jim Bowden tweeted that the Twins are in touch with Kimbrel's agent. Take it with a shaker of salt at this point:

 

Since our only competition for Kimbrel’s services seems to be the Braves, Red Sox, Cardinals, and I guess the Phillies, I’d like to believe that we at least have a fighting chance at landing him. Of course, this all depends on whether, or not, our FO is comfortable with our bullpen at its current state; not very good.

[Danchat]

Hmmmm... I'm not sure about this deal... I don't think it's awful. It'll be great for the Phillies for about the next 5-7 years, as $25M a year is about what I think Harper is worth. Of course, the next 5-7 years after that probably aren't going to be worth it. I do think it's a great deal for Harper to get $330M total over 13 years instead of just 10 years. So I guess I like this deal a bit better than Machado's, but who knows what the MLB situation will be in 7+ years?

[PseudoSABR]

[Taildragger8791]

I’m pretty rusty on my college economics class...but isn’t $25 million in 2030 dollars going to be more like $18-$20 million in today’s dollars? That and the fact that sports salaries outpace inflation, and those later years won’t even be that expensive as long as he’s still producing something. It seems like adding years in exchange for such a low AAV would eventually be a detriment to the player than it buys the certainty he wants.

[Mike Sixel]

Mike are you Donald Fehr?

the great players will always get theirs. But if the union members vote for the good of the majority of players, these three signings don't change reality for 95% of players.

[2wins87]

 

Must have really wanted that headline to best the $300 number Machado got. (Or, more likely, the $325 that Stanton got.) Those extra three years aren't great...relatively speaking (assuming the no opt out is fact). He'll be getting $22 million in years 11, 12, and 13 of the contract. Discounting over 11 years...(just at a reasonable rate of inflation, while salaries could continue to grow faster than that)...that $22 million would be in the neighborhood of what Nelson Cruz got this year from the Twins. Meanwhile, at year 11, Harper would be two years younger than Cruz is today. Harper could sit out two years with an injury, turn in to a DH only...and still conceivably sign for more than $22 million in 2029. Not that it's every bad or wrong to go for the guarantee. But, I'm slightly surprised...this is more favorable for the team than I anticipated.

 

Although the average salary actually decreased slightly last year and looks likely to decrease again this year even with Harper's and Machado's pay raises.  Obviously this won't continue for 13 years but I'd  expect $22 million to still be the equivalent something like $17 million for the last 3 years, so a qualifying offer essentially.

[2wins87]

 

So does this end the threat of a strike? Darn cheap colluding owners.

 

Not if the average salary decreases for the second year in a row, as it looks likely to at this point.

[kydoty]

The contract kind of bugs me. It’s just so much for a guy who outside his MVP season hasn’t been overly amazing.

 

I see Harper as a consistently very good player with stretches of greatness. That kind of contrast should be reserved for someone who is at minimum a consistently great player with stretches of being historically great.

 

I don’t see him breaking down and being a walking corpse like Miguel Cabrera will be for the next five years. So Philly should get a lot more value out of him. Of course, one injury can change that.

 

I dunno. It just doesn’t sit well with me. Hope he proves me wrong for the next 13 years.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Still puzzled how Bryce Harper deserves this type of contract. Take away his 2015 MVP season and what do have?  Just take a moment to look up his career stats and tell me how he deserved a deal like that.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/harpebr03.shtml

I agree, I would have a hard time endorsing the Harper deal for my team. (Thankfully, my team spares me from such considerations )

 

But it's not quite right to simply take away Harper's MVP season -- that's part of his record too. His career mark is a 139 OPS+. Obviously his one season of 198 has a big impact there, but even so, he's at 143 over just the past 2 seasons, and only entering his age-26 season. There's more to player value than just OPS+, of course, but Harper looks to be in the range of MLB's top hitters.

 

Stanton was at 144 career OPS+ when he signed his deal (and his deal included an opt out and a few arbitration seasons, so Harper's is actually "cheaper" in a way). I prefer Arendao's and Machado's position and defense, but their career mark are only 121 OPS+. Cano had a 126 OPS+ when he signed his contract. A-Rod was at 136 when he signed his first big deal, and 147 when he signed his second. Teixeira, 134. Mauer, 136.

 

(Through that lens, you can sort of see why Pujols got his deal, despite his age and positional limitations -- he had an incredible 170 OPS+ for his career at the time!)

 

If Harper had ever repeated that career season, he probably could have gotten $400 million or more. As it is, $330 mil doesn't seem too out of line.

[Vanimal46]

By the time that contract is done, the Mets will still be paying Bobby Bonilla.

https://twitter.com/rianwatt/status/1101213890560450561?s=19

[Mike Sixel]

https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2019/2/28/18245263/bryce-harper-philadelphia-phillies-record-contract-13-years-330-million

[Mike Sixel]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/phillies-get-bryce-harper-and-bryce-harper-gets-massive-payout/

[Mike Sixel]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/stupid-money-is-smart-money-a-tale-of-bryce-harper/

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/phillies-get-bryce-harper-and-bryce-harper-gets-massive-payout/

Thanks for sharing.

 

Google Cache tells me that Fangraphs had the Phillies projected at 81 wins before Harper -- 2 wins below the Twins (albeit in a stronger division). Now they have them at 86 wins, leaping over the Braves and Mets in their division, projecting as the top NL wild card team, and wiping out over half of their deficit behind the Nationals (projected 90 wins). They basically swapped out a projected 1.3 WAR outfield spot for the projected 4.8 WAR Harper.

 

And that's on top of swapping out a projected 0.9 WAR catcher for the projected 4.3 WAR Realmuto earlier in the offseason. Philly must have been a projected ~78 win team before that? That's a nice aggressive offseason.

 

[Mike Sixel]

The second link shows how valuable wins are when you are on the edge of the playoffs!

 

Of course, they signed a pitcher last year, to a multi year (though short) deal, who is now there when they need him.....

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The second link shows how valuable wins are when you are on the edge of the playoffs!

Yup! Just read that one too.

 

ZiPS has the Phillies jumping from 84 wins to 88 with Harper, just 1 win behind the Nationals at 89.

[cardsfan]

Yup! Just read that one too.

 

ZiPS has the Phillies jumping from 84 wins to 88 with Harper, just 1 win behind the Nationals at 89.

Notice the Nats went up without Harper who was hitting .214 at ASG break last year. His last 3 years doesn’t merit this amount of payola looking at WAR and games missed 2 seasons ago.

 

One can see at times if at the beginning of this contract he puts up 1.3 WAR and misses 50 starts in another season those Philadelphia fans may start throwing batteries. Trying to get rid of this contract with years to go sounds like this wasn’t well thought out. 13 years.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Notice the Nats went up without Harper

The Nats didn't go "up" by losing Harper. They definitely lost projected wins by losing Harper, but made up some of that by improved projections from Soto, Eaton, Dozier, and the catcher position.

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

His last 3 years doesn’t merit this amount of payola looking at WAR and games missed 2 seasons ago.

One can see at times if at the beginning of this contract he puts up 1.3 WAR and misses 50 starts in another season those Philadelphia fans may start throwing batteries. Trying to get rid of this contract with years to go sounds like this wasn’t well thought out. 13 years.

1.3 WAR is based on some outlier defensive data at B-Ref. 3.5 WAR at Fangraphs, although even that is dragged down by defense which isn't as predictive as offense in a one-year sample. Harper's 135 wRC+ ranked 15th among qualified batters in MLB last year.

 

There's obviously risk to the Phillies, but there was also risk in them relying on Nick Williams as a starting outfielder on a contending team again (0.3 fWAR, -1.0 bWAR in 2018).

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

The Nats didn't go "up" by losing Harper. They definitely lost projected wins by losing Harper, but made up some of that by improved projections from Soto, Eaton, Dozier, and the catcher position.

 

I'm not fluent in Nationals moves, but are any of those moves possible because Harper turned down their offer?  If so, in a way, they did go up by losing Harper.

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

1.3 WAR is based on some outlier defensive data at B-Ref. 3.5 WAR at Fangraphs, although even that is dragged down by defense which isn't as predictive as offense in a one-year sample. Harper's 135 wRC+ ranked 15th among qualified batters in MLB last year.

 

There's obviously risk to the Phillies, but there was also risk in them relying on Nick Williams as a starting outfielder on a contending team again (0.3 fWAR, -1.0 bWAR in 2018).

 

Except that if that data turns out to be less outlier, and more harbinger, and the NL decides against going to the DH, defense becomes a very important part of the picture for Mr. Harper.  He's already not an option in center, so he has nowhere else to go except first.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Notice the Nats went up without Harper who was hitting .214 at ASG break last year. His last 3 years doesn’t merit this amount of payola looking at WAR and games missed 2 seasons ago.

One can see at times if at the beginning of this contract he puts up 1.3 WAR and misses 50 starts in another season those Philadelphia fans may start throwing batteries. Trying to get rid of this contract with years to go sounds like this wasn’t well thought out. 13 years.

 

read the links I supplied, and see if you still think that.

 

Are we judging 26 year olds on half a season, or career and future?

[Riverbrian]

 

Notice the Nats went up without Harper who was hitting .214 at ASG break last year. His last 3 years doesn’t merit this amount of payola looking at WAR and games missed 2 seasons ago.

One can see at times if at the beginning of this contract he puts up 1.3 WAR and misses 50 starts in another season those Philadelphia fans may start throwing batteries. Trying to get rid of this contract with years to go sounds like this wasn’t well thought out. 13 years.

 

If the Phillies wanted the player... they must pay the price to acquire the player. Which they did. 

 

I'm pretty sure the Phillies ownership and front office understand that the possibility exists that the final years of the contract will be Albert Pujols-esque. They understand what he did last year and know it could happen again next year... But... they wanted the player and they paid the price with eyes wide open in order to get the player that they wanted. 

 

If the Phillies would have held their ground and believed that his past metrics/projected metrics suggest he should be paid significantly less and then said... "Nope we are sticking with our formula and not deviating from it"... They wouldn't have gotten the player.

 

Because the Giants would have said... We also want the player so we are willing to go over projected value to get the player. And then the Phillies have to say... we would still like the player but the Giants are not cooperating with our Algorithm so we must increase the offer. 

 

Trying to navigate free agency with an Algorithm is going to be a lot of waiting for players to fall down in price in order to pull the trigger at a certain comfort level.

 

If you want the player... you must pay the price to get that player. And then you pray that the results are worth it. Sometimes they ain't... but the bad result must be baked in because if you want the player... you must pay the price to get that player. 

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I'm not fluent in Nationals moves, but are any of those moves possible because Harper turned down their offer?  If so, in a way, they did go up by losing Harper.

Corbin's salary is comparable to Harper's. But they probably net similar projected wins by signing either player, so I wouldn't say they're better off without him.

 

Harper probably fits better with the Phillies, but that's no knock on Harper or the Phillies here.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Except that if that data turns out to be less outlier, and more harbinger, and the NL decides against going to the DH, defense becomes a very important part of the picture for Mr. Harper.  He's already not an option in center, so he has nowhere else to go except first.

Absolutely. I'm assuming Philadelphia did their homework in this regard. It would be odd for a player to collapse defensively at age 25, so I tend to think he will bounce back and be a viable RF, at least for the next 5 years or so.

 

I've seen it suggested that Harper's defensive metrics suffered in 2018 because he was overly cautious, ensuring his health in a contract year. Not exactly the kind of approach a team wants to reward -- but at least Philadelphia won't have to worry about that factor!

[nicksaviking]

I suspect after the next CBA, Harper's annual salary is going to be at the low end of top tier free agents and extension candidates.

 

Assuming we're playing baseball after the next CBA.