Sickels top Twins prospect list for 2019

[gunnarthor]

Top three aren't a surprise but #4 was.

 

https://www.minorleagueball.com/2018/10/23/18002156/minnesota-twins-top-20-prospects-for-2019

 

Sickels like the depth of the team a lot.

[Mike Sixel]

Pretty sure Fangraphs agrees on number 4, let's see.....

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/?type=&pos=&team=min

 

Not sure of the date this was last updated......but I know they really liked him as a pick.

[rdehring]

Very interesting, and sure is a lot to like.

 

Personally, I would flip Lewis and Gonsalves.  A bit surprising that he still has Javier that high after missing most of two of the last three years.  Also a pleasant surprise to see De Jong at #11, as was with Larnach at #4.  Expect we all are going to like Balazovic next year and wouldn't be surprised to see him in the Top 10 a year from now.  

 

After an ugly year for the Twins, seems like the minor league organization has taken a big step forward.  

[ashbury]

Top three aren't a surprise but #4 was.

 

https://www.minorleagueball.com/2018/10/23/18002156/minnesota-twins-top-20-prospects-for-2019

 

Sickels like the depth of the team a lot.

Akil Baddoo "has 70-grade name tool". LOL.

[gunnarthor]

 

Pretty sure Fangraphs agrees on number 4, let's see.....

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/?type=&pos=&team=min

 

Not sure of the date this was last updated......but I know they really liked him as a pick.

Yeah, the fangraphs guys were high on him but I thought they were the outlier. It's nice to see others high on him.

[Tom Froemming]

Biggest surprises to me were where he had De Jong and Arraez.

[gunnarthor]

I do like the general depth of the system but I do think it lacks big upside. Guys like De Jong, Littel, Stewart, Thorpe and Gonsalves all profile as backend type starters. That's not a bad thing - it's hard to find #3 or better types - but I do wish we had a bit more pitching upside although Romero (graduated off the list) and Graterol have some.

 

I'm not thrilled with the pen arms and UI types at all. 

[h2oface]

I guess Fernando Romero is not in the Twins system anymore? Did I miss something? 55.2 innings in the show but buried in Rochester, and he graduated?

[2wins87]

 

I guess Fernando Romero is not in the Twins system anymore? Did I miss something?

 

Surpassed rookie limits so no longer a "prospect".

[h2oface]

 

Surpassed rookie limits so no longer a "prospect".

 Hmmmmm. Garver was on the TD prospect list almost all year and most of that he was on the Twins.

Fuzzy limits it appears. 

[2wins87]

 

I do like the general depth of the system but I do think it lacks big upside. Guys like De Jong, Littel, Stewart, Thorpe and Gonsalves all profile as backend type starters. That's not a bad thing - it's hard to find #3 or better types - but I do wish we had a bit more pitching upside although Romero (graduated off the list) and Graterol have some.

 

I'm not thrilled with the pen arms and UI types at all. 

 

Still not clear whether Balazovic and Enlow end up as backend starter prospects or something better.

 

I can't tell if the way Molitor utilized the bullpen made it really hard for prospects to emerge or if the upside just wasn't as high there as was generally anticipated.

 

I'm not sure when in the past the org has really had better pitching prospects overall.  I guess with Gibson, Berrios, Meyer, and May there was a ton of upside.

 

[2wins87]

 

 Hmmmmm. Garver was on the TD prospect list almost all year and most of that he was on the Twins.

Fuzzy limits it appears. 

 

You'll have to take that up with Seth I guess.  Garver would have passed rookie limits sometime in early to mid May by service time and/or MLB at bats.

[Tom Froemming]

 

 Hmmmmm. Garver was on the TD prospect list almost all year and most of that he was on the Twins.

Fuzzy limits it appears. 

Garver was not included on the midseason list that came out in July. Here's more info on rookie eligibility.

[diehardtwinsfan]

DeJong is the only real surprise here. He's a DFA candidate in my book. Bit surprised he's that highly thought of. 

 

Side note, but I'd hope Sickles likes the depth. I doubt there's a deeper system in baseball. Could use a bit more upside, but with Lewis and AK, there's penty of it there.

[Tuba]

Dejong logged some quality MLB innings so I guess that helps.

 

#14 is far and away the highest I've seen Balazovic

[Han Joelo]

Agreed about Dejong--I was about to say  I was surprised/disappointed that none of the deadline acquisitions rated higher...but there he is at #11.

 

I like the mix, personally--top end talent, solid/close contributors, and quite a few "lotto tickets" (with better odds than that metaphor usually entails). Guys like Severino, Celestino, etc. plus some not listed.

[Vanimal46]

The depth is there... I hope they use some of that depth to acquire someone who can help the MLB team immediately.

[Thrylos]

I think that his ETAs are at least a year too far for most of these guys, including Gonsalves and Stewart (fact: was 2018, he has them at 2019).  Gonsalves still over-rated even after being exposed... 

[TheLeviathan]

He's certainly loves the upside in a lot of guys.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

These prospects give us some real hope. I really think Lewis and Kirilloff will have better careers than the last dynamic duo prospects, Buck and Sano. You read it here first.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Yeah, the fangraphs guys were high on him but I thought they were the outlier. It's nice to see others high on him.

 

Are people really surprised that Larnach is that high? Current year's 1st round pick. Huge power potential AND hit tool. Gonsalves and Gordon both probably fell back a notch or two.  

 

Also, Sickels' ranking is a little different. He gives grades based on upside and other stuff and he puts them into grad groupings. So, I think he made the comment that hit 12-17 prospects are all the same grade so not to worry too much about the specific number they're ranked.

[nytwinsfan]

Duran and Alcala should be switched and most of the AAA pitchers and Arraez are a bit too high. Do appreciate the love for Balazovic though.

[bird]

 

I do like the general depth of the system but I do think it lacks big upside. Guys like De Jong, Littel, Stewart, Thorpe and Gonsalves all profile as backend type starters. That's not a bad thing - it's hard to find #3 or better types - but I do wish we had a bit more pitching upside although Romero (graduated off the list) and Graterol have some.

 

I'm not thrilled with the pen arms and UI types at all. 

 

I'm with you, but take some solace that another year for Enlow, Graterol, Balezovic, Romero, and Duran might unearth a front line guy. We need that to happen.

 

Some positives:

 

There are generally only about 20 or so A-graded prospects on Sickel's lists, so having two is a sign of comparative strength.

 

In comparing the Fangraph list (thanks Mike) of prospects with a 40 grade or better to Sickel's list of prospects at C+ or better, my rough guess is that between them, they found about 60 prospects to like well enough to say they have a real chance.

 

That said, Sickles doesn't grade all that many of the better prospects at B+, which I view as a cautionary thing.

 

I expected loftier assessments from Sickles on Rortvedt, Miranda, Blankenhorn, Duran, and maybe Jax, Urbina, and even Leach. Fangraphs likes a few of those guys much much more. BTW, who the heck is Charles Mack on the Fangraphs list?

 

Other indicators of a deep system: the number of prospects who merited at least a trial with the big club who don't even warrant a B- grade: Astudillo, Vasquez, Granite, Slegers, Jorge, Curtiss. And C type prospects who are regarded to be worthy of fall ball by the org: Blankenhorn, Raley, Smeltzer, Lujan, Jax, Davis.

[Squirrel]

 

 Hmmmmm. Garver was on the TD prospect list almost all year and most of that he was on the Twins.

Fuzzy limits it appears. 

Everyone grades prospects differently, even who is and isn't a prospect. Sickels is not TD and TD is not Sickels.

[Twinsoholic]

I am surprised that Edwar Colina is not in the C+ or C listing by Sickels. He had an excellent season as a starter at Cedar Rapids. He is someone to keep your eyes on in 2019 at Fort Myers (and maybe Pensacola).

 

 

[Steve Lein]

 

I do like the general depth of the system but I do think it lacks big upside. Guys like De Jong, Littel, Stewart, Thorpe and Gonsalves all profile as backend type starters. That's not a bad thing - it's hard to find #3 or better types - but I do wish we had a bit more pitching upside although Romero (graduated off the list) and Graterol have some.

 

I'm not thrilled with the pen arms and UI types at all. 

 

It lacked elite guys last year, but had the same level of depth. They've gotten much better in this regard with Lewis and Kirilloff.

[jkcarew]

I do think the grading approach puts a bit of a different slant on how I'd critique the list.

 

For instance, it would be REALLY hard for me to have Gonsalves this high on the list...not to mention, so many spots higher than Stewart at this point.  But, he's really only giving Gonsalves a half-grade edge on Stewart.  I guess either on the basis of his minor league numbers, and/or the 'left-handed-and breathing' theory.

 

Note the estimated arrival time on Graterol.  Not 2019, as some of the more optimistic members of our community have mentioned here from time to time.  Not 2020.  2021.  I do think that's a bit conservative, but I agree with the remark regarding where he is with his endurance, track-record of work load.  The same concern exists with Romero, obviously.

[Seth Stohs]

 

 Hmmmmm. Garver was on the TD prospect list almost all year and most of that he was on the Twins.

Fuzzy limits it appears. 

 

Garver was on our preseason Prospect rankings because he was a rookie coming into the season.

 

When we did our midseason Prospect rankings, he was no longer under the rookie limits, so he was removed. 

 

Romero is over the 50-innings limit, so he's not included. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

Everyone grades prospects differently, even who is and isn't a prospect. Sickels is not TD and TD is not Sickels.

 

Right, but TD, Sickels, FanGraphs, Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, MLB Pipeline all use the same criteria for what constitutes a rookie/prospect. (130 AB for a hitter, 50 IP for a pitcher and some Service Time rules as well)

[nicksaviking]

I do like the general depth of the system but I do think it lacks big upside. Guys like De Jong, Littel, Stewart, Thorpe and Gonsalves all profile as backend type starters. That's not a bad thing - it's hard to find #3 or better types - but I do wish we had a bit more pitching upside although Romero (graduated off the list) and Graterol have some.

 

I'm not thrilled with the pen arms and UI types at all.

I like the pen arms.

 

But mostly because I assume most of them are still starting right now. Which is the way it used to be before the Twins went on that reliever-heavy draft binge last decade. I'd guess the lower upside starters you referenced in the first paragraph will mostly end up in the pen.