How should the Twins approach their pitching depth

[Jacksson]

Unless he is NOW able to consistently deliver 7 innings instead of 5, Mejia is a long reliever in the bullpen. Number 5 starter is between Romero and De Jong. Gonsalves, Stewart, Slegers, Thorpe, Littell are all available (as is Mejia). The latter two, Thorpe & Littell could find their way to the bullpen. As for the bullpen: Moya & Vasquez stay while: Busenitz, Magill, Curtiss, and Drake are ALL Expendable. As for Reed and Hildy (I dislike "gimmick" pitchers), if you can find any takers for them, wave goodbye. Free Agent watch = Derek Holland, Drew Smyly, Zach Britton, Jeurys Familia,Nate Jones, Joe Kelly. Then it is to: Minor League Free Agents, Rule 5 Draft, and Trades.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Unless he is NOW able to consistently deliver 7 innings instead of 5, Mejia is a long reliever in the bullpen. Number 5 starter is between Romero and De Jong. Gonsalves, Stewart, Slegers, Thorpe, Littell are all available (as is Mejia). The latter two, Thorpe & Littell could find their way to the bullpen. As for the bullpen: Moya & Vasquez stay while: Busenitz, Magill, Curtiss, and Drake are ALL Expendable. As for Reed and Hildy (I dislike "gimmick" pitchers), if you can find any takers for them, wave goodbye. Free Agent watch = Derek Holland, Drew Smyly, Zach Britton, Jeurys Familia,Nate Jones, Joe Kelly. Then it is to: Minor League Free Agents, Rule 5 Draft, and Trades.

 

The vast majority of starts are 5.1 innings or less, not 7 innings or more......I sometimes wonder if people realized how different the league is now, compared to 5+ years ago.

 

Mejia has been better than every one of those players, at the MLB level.

[old nurse]

 

The vast majority of starts are 5.1 innings or less, not 7 innings or more......I sometimes wonder if people realized how different the league is now, compared to 5+ years ago.

 

Mejia has been better than every one of those players, at the MLB level.

Mejia averages 4.2 IP/start   That is below league average.  What was written before has not changed At 25 he still could develop into something but what his ceiling is is lower than Romero, Gonsalves or Thorpe.  Equal to De Jong and the rest.  None of the latter group really have a great pitch to become decent relievers.

[yarnivek1972]

Unless he is NOW able to consistently deliver 7 innings instead of 5, Mejia is a long reliever in the bullpen. Number 5 starter is between Romero and De Jong. Gonsalves, Stewart, Slegers, Thorpe, Littell are all available (as is Mejia). The latter two, Thorpe & Littell could find their way to the bullpen. As for the bullpen: Moya & Vasquez stay while: Busenitz, Magill, Curtiss, and Drake are ALL Expendable. As for Reed and Hildy (I dislike "gimmick" pitchers), if you can find any takers for them, wave goodbye. Free Agent watch = Derek Holland, Drew Smyly, Zach Britton, Jeurys Familia,Nate Jones, Joe Kelly. Then it is to: Minor League Free Agents, Rule 5 Draft, and Trades.

Here is the complete list of major league starting pitchers that averaged 7 IP per start in 2018:

 

 

 

 

 

 

Here’s the complete list for 2017:

 

Corey Kluber

 

 

 

2016:

 

Clayton Kershaw

Chris Sale

[Monkeypaws]

I'm not a fan of any proposal that cuts Mejía loose. Not sure what a nerve traction injury is, or what the expected recovery might be, but I've enjoyed watching Adalberto pitch when he is healthy.

 

 

[Riverbrian]

 

Here is the complete list of major league starting pitchers that averaged 7 IP per start in 2018:






Here’s the complete list for 2017:

Corey Kluber



2016:

Clayton Kershaw
Chris Sale

 

Bingo

 

I'm not sure how many neon signs are needed to get people's attention but... Starting Pitchers are throwing less innings and relievers are throwing more innings. The concept of the opener and bullpenning was successfully executed by the Rays and we just hired a manager straight outta Tampa.  

 

This ain't the 80's anymore. The walls have just started to come down on a 5 man starting rotation, a closer, two set up guys, a long relief guy and 4 guys filling out the bullpen off the waiver wire. Bullpen Guys no longer just throw one inning and hand the ball to the next guy. 

 

We don't have to cut Mejia because we ran out of starting rotation space, Mejia and others can throw multiple innings out of the pen.  

[Major League Ready]

 

The vast majority of starts are 5.1 innings or less, not 7 innings or more......I sometimes wonder if people realized how different the league is now, compared to 5+ years ago.

 

Mejia has been better than every one of those players, at the MLB level.

 

I would be just fine with having about 4 guys that you could count on for 4-5 good innings. Mix and match those guys and you probably have a real effective model, especially if you had three good "traditional" starters.

[ashbury]

and we just hired a manager straight outta Tampa. 

 

Catchy.

[jkcarew]

 

Bingo

 

I'm not sure how many neon signs are needed to get people's attention but... Starting Pitchers are throwing less innings and relievers are throwing more innings. The concept of the opener and bullpenning was successfully executed by the Rays and we just hired a manager straight outta Tampa.  

 

This ain't the 80's anymore. The walls have just started to come down on a 5 man starting rotation, a closer, two set up guys, a long relief guy and 4 guys filling out the bullpen off the waiver wire. Bullpen Guys no longer just throw one inning and hand the ball to the next guy. 

 

We don't have to cut Mejia because we ran out of starting rotation space, Mejia and others can throw multiple innings out of the pen. 

And that's where I would want Mejia to be (if retained)...in the bullpen.  Don't trust his 2018 results, 22 innings of good results on the back of a .239 BABiP.  And maybe his stuff plays up in 1-3 inning stints.  Really would/could be a different pitcher if he cut down the walks significantly.  In any regard, I would not consider it a sign that the FO expects to compete in 2019 if Mejia starts the year as a part of the rotation.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I would be just fine with having about 4 guys that you could count on for 4-5 good innings. Mix and match those guys and you probably have a real effective model, especially if you had three good "traditional" starters.

 

Ya, I've been suggesting that here since the site launched. It would be a lot easier to find guys to go through the order twice, and send them up and down to AAA, than to find 4-6 really, really, good starters. 

[Riverbrian]

 

Ya, I've been suggesting that here since the site launched. It would be a lot easier to find guys to go through the order twice, and send them up and down to AAA, than to find 4-6 really, really, good starters. 

 

Agreed.

 

Finding 5 quality traditional starters and keeping them healthy throughout the year is perhaps the hardest thing that a GM has to do. It costs a lot of money, they require more DL stints than your 3rd Base Guy, they have up and down years and everybody is hanging on to whatever they have making them hard to trade for and it of course depletes the talent in the waiver pool since most teams are holding tight to anyone breathing.  

 

While we are not sure of the quality of our depth... we got a decent sense of the quantity of our depth. 

 

It sure looks like a collection of arms that can take an unconventional approach to the entire pitching staff and how they are deployed. 

[DocBauer]

Not 100% sold on the whole opener idea yet, partially due to what seemed like poor results in the minors, but I'm coming around to the idea. My biggest remains bringing in a "starter" if the opener allows a run or more.

 

But here is a question. From various opinions im reading, you go traditional with guys like Berrios and Gibson, but use the opener for the other 3 SP potentially?

[ashbury]

But here is a question. From various opinions im reading, you go traditional with guys like Berrios and Gibson, but use the opener for the other 3 SP potentially?

My view is that you begin with the intention to "go traditional" with a pitcher you expect to do OK the third time through the top of the opposing lineup, and use the opener with a lesser pitcher who you'll be itching to pull when the leadoff batter comes up the third time. When it works, the opener lets the nominal starter face the lower part of the lineup three times, but the top only twice. We're talking about small percentage advantages, here, but teams are always hungry for any edge they think they can get.

 

And I say "begin with the intention", to highlight that you adjust your plan to accommodate realities, such as how rested your bullpen is, for example. There are approximately 162x9 innings to cover every season, and you can't do it with tons of one-inning pitchers. Somebody has to eat innings, and the challenge is to improve how that happens.

 

On average, essentially every starter has more trouble the third time through the lineup, but high-quality starters may be less of a dropoff relative to a fresh arm from the pen, than lesser starters.

 

So yes, "go traditional" with Berrios and with Gibson, and perhaps another who you develop confidence in. Established five-inning guys like Odorizzi, and probably rookies who might benefit from a little lower pressure of facing the bottom of the lineup more frequently, are my candidates for employing an opener - when they have decent games, you increase your chances of getting 6 innings out of them.

[Monkeypaws]

I'd like to see the games spread out over a greater number of guys - looking at the 2018 AL leaders in appearances: Pressly was #1 with 77; Hildenberger was 7th with 73; Zach Duke was tied for 10th with 72 along with Taylor Rogers; Even Rodney hits 21st with 68.

 

That 4 of your relievers, (albeit some of those appearances were with other teams) make the top 10 league-wide in appearances, no bueno. The only team that had more than 1 was Seattle, and one of theirs was Duke.

 

No more LOOGY/ROOGY Rule 5 passengers in the bullpen....

[DocBauer]

My view is that you begin with the intention to "go traditional" with a pitcher you expect to do OK the third time through the top of the opposing lineup, and use the opener with a lesser pitcher who you'll be itching to pull when the leadoff batter comes up the third time. When it works, the opener lets the nominal starter face the lower part of the lineup three times, but the top only twice. We're talking about small percentage advantages, here, but teams are always hungry for any edge they think they can get.

 

And I say "begin with the intention", to highlight that you adjust your plan to accommodate realities, such as how rested your bullpen is, for example. There are approximately 162x9 innings to cover every season, and you can't do it with tons of one-inning pitchers. Somebody has to eat innings, and the challenge is to improve how that happens.

 

On average, essentially every starter has more trouble the third time through the lineup, but high-quality starters may be less of a dropoff relative to a fresh arm from the pen, than lesser starters.

 

So yes, "go traditional" with Berrios and with Gibson, and perhaps another who you develop confidence in. Established five-inning guys like Odorizzi, and probably rookies who might benefit from a little lower pressure of facing the bottom of the lineup more frequently, are my candidates for employing an opener - when they have decent games, you increase your chances of getting 6 innings out of them.

I'd like to say great minds think alike, but I know the condition of my mind at times, so I wouldn't want to insult you with that statement, lol.

 

Just a clarification when you reference the "intention" of going traditional; let's assume Romero, Odorizzi and Pineda make up spots 3-5 at this point. IYO, do you begin the season with them starting the game traditionally and then adjust accordingly? OR, citing Romero's youth, Odorizzi's history and Pineda coming back and begin the year with a designated starter?

[ashbury]

Just a clarification when you reference the "intention" of going traditional; let's assume Romero, Odorizzi and Pineda make up spots 3-5 at this point. IYO, do you begin the season with them starting the game traditionally and then adjust accordingly? OR, citing Romero's youth, Odorizzi's history and Pineda coming back and begin the year with a designated starter?

Pineda's track record is more than a 5-inning guy, so I'd personally lean toward having him start his own games - but who knows what percentage of his former self still exists. IMO it's not even a sure thing he contributes meaningfully in 2019.

 

Romero was treated as a 5-inning guy this year, so until that point of view changes, I'd give him an Opener to help out. Any such pitcher can wean himself off of needing an Opener by doing well through his 2.5 times through the lineup and being strong enough to tackle the top of the order a third time - get through that cleanly enough, and I let him start the traditional way after that.

 

JMO.

 

 

[DocBauer]

Pineda's track record is more than a 5-inning guy, so I'd personally lean toward having him start his own games - but who knows what percentage of his former self still exists. IMO it's not even a sure thing he contributes meaningfully in 2019.

 

Romero was treated as a 5-inning guy this year, so until that point of view changes, I'd give him an Opener to help out. Any such pitcher can wean himself off of needing an Opener by doing well through his 2.5 times through the lineup and being strong enough to tackle the top of the order a third time - get through that cleanly enough, and I let him start the traditional way after that.

 

JMO.

Agreed!

 

Ween Romero, who I hope is part of the rotation for 2019 and beyond. I like this opener approach better than being in the pen and then transitioning back to the rotation.

 

I feel good about Pineda, despite his latest setback, based on the arm health he showed late in 2018.

[jorgenswest]

The success of the opener strategy hinges on enough really good arms in the bullpen. The success of the traditional starter that now pitches 5-6 innings hinges on enough really good arms in the bullpen.

 

The Twins first concern has to be to find 5 really good arms in the bullpen and whichever starter strategy the elect will be a success.

 

Can we put anyone in the bullpen on the really good arm list? May and Rogers? Who else?

[mlhouse]

 

 Gonsalves will turn 24 during the season. Age and development does not matter when the ceiling is high. See Kluber, Corey. See Hicks, Aaron as recent examples. of late bloomers. Doe the team ditch all the 24-25 year old players that are not superstars? The sold off Ryan Pressly was 29 and still developing. There is no simple formula for when to give up. 

 

I am not stating that we should give up on any of these guys.  In fact, taht is the opposite of what I am stating.  Instead, we should have much more sample size on almost all of these guys than we do.  We have too many question marks and not enough answers.  

 

 

[Vanimal46]

The success of the opener strategy hinges on enough really good arms in the bullpen. The success of the traditional starter that now pitches 5-6 innings hinges on enough really good arms in the bullpen.

 

The Twins first concern has to be to find 5 really good arms in the bullpen and whichever starter strategy the elect will be a success.

 

Can we put anyone in the bullpen on the really good arm list? May and Rogers? Who else?

I'm not sure we can even put those 2 on the really good list. May had a good short stint after TJS but is far from a proven commodity in the bullpen. Rogers had a lights out 2nd half and a pedestrian 1st half.

[Riverbrian]

 

I'd like to see the games spread out over a greater number of guys - looking at the 2018 AL leaders in appearances: Pressly was #1 with 77; Hildenberger was 7th with 73; Zach Duke was tied for 10th with 72 along with Taylor Rogers; Even Rodney hits 21st with 68.

 

That 4 of your relievers, (albeit some of those appearances were with other teams) make the top 10 league-wide in appearances, no bueno. The only team that had more than 1 was Seattle, and one of theirs was Duke.

 

No more LOOGY/ROOGY Rule 5 passengers in the bullpen....

 

I believe a couple of factors came into play to produce the results you mention. 

 

#1 - Health - We had a couple of DL stints but for the most part, our pitching staff remained healthy and when healthy they will rack up the innings in comparison to other teams in the league who are enduring injuries in a more typical amount.  

 

#2 - Hiding and Burning Roster Spots - We started with 7 bullpen slots and the hiding/burning started right away when the Twins selected Tyler Kinley in the Rule 5. I had no idea who Tyler Kinley was but the idea of selecting a Rule 5 guy while at the same time spending money to sign free agents seemed contradictory to me. Selecting a rule 5 guy and returning him shortly after may seem like a "Oh Well We Tried" harmless spin of the wheel for a short time but Molitor wouldn't use him and this ratchets up the number of appearances his trusted bullpen posse would need to compensate for. Kinley made 4 appearances in April before he was returned to the Marlins on May 1. 

 

After Kinley was returned to the Marlins, Phil Hughes was taken out of the rotation around the same time and Hughes replaced Kinley in that long relief role and went on to make 5 appearances out of the bullpen until he was traded to the Padres May 27th. That's basically two months of the season and 9 appearances total between Kinley and Hughes.  

 

After Hughes was traded... Molitor... seemed to have a "we have to have someone held back) for long relief desire or need. That guy then became Matt Magill. After making 12 appearances in May and an impressive 1.53 ERA. Molitor had to have someone replace Kinley and Hughes and not pitch much in case things got bad in a game and Magill disappears of the radar for a total of 5 appearances in June. Now we are at 14 Appearances out of the long relief role for the first 3 months. 

 

This created a domino effect in the bullpen. When Magill switched roles, as mentioned above he went from 12 appearances in a month to 5. This means that someone would have to be added to roster to replace those innings that Magill used to absorb. This becomes a line of candidates who Molitor didn't seem to trust much and they don't replace the appearances that were being made by Magill. So now we are using up two bullpen roster spots to hide and basically waste and the trusted posse who remained healthy has to take up the slack. 

 

 

In my opinion... it was the combination of these two things that created the impressive list of Twins pitchers at the top of the MLB appearance rankings. 

 

I don't know if I've mentioned this before in other posts but in case I haven't.  -- In 2019... I want 25 guys who can play and every player on the 25 man to be trusted and utilized. 

[DocBauer]

I believe a couple of factors came into play to produce the results you mention. 

 

#1 - Health - We had a couple of DL stints but for the most part, our pitching staff remained healthy and when healthy they will rack up the innings in comparison to other teams in the league who are enduring injuries in a more typical amount.  

 

#2 - Hiding and Burning Roster Spots - We started with 7 bullpen slots and the hiding/burning started right away when the Twins selected Tyler Kinley in the Rule 5. I had no idea who Tyler Kinley was but the idea of selecting a Rule 5 guy while at the same time spending money to sign free agents seemed contradictory to me. Selecting a rule 5 guy and returning him shortly after may seem like a "Oh Well We Tried" harmless spin of the wheel for a short time but Molitor wouldn't use him and this ratchets up the number of appearances his trusted bullpen posse would need to compensate for. Kinley made 4 appearances in April before he was returned to the Marlins on May 1. 

 

After Kinley was returned to the Marlins, Phil Hughes was taken out of the rotation around the same time and Hughes replaced Kinley in that long relief role and went on to make 5 appearances out of the bullpen until he was traded to the Padres May 27th. That's basically two months of the season and 9 appearances total.  

 

After Hughes was traded... Molitor... seemed to have a "we have to have someone held back) for long relief. That guy then became Matt Magill. After making 12 appearances in May and an impressive 1.53 ERA. Molitor had to have someone replace Kinley and Hughes and not pitch much in case things got bad in a game and Magill disappears of the radar for a total of 5 appearances in June. Now we are at 14 Appearances out of the long relief role for the first 3 months. 

 

This created a domino effect in the bullpen. When Magill switched roles, as mentioned above he went from 12 appearances in a month to 5. This means that someone would have to be added to roster to replace those innings that Magill used to absorb. This becomes a line of candidates who Molitor didn't seem to trust much and they don't replace the appearances that were being made by Magill. So now we are using up two bullpen roster spots to hide and basically waste and the trusted posse who remained healthy has to take up the slack. 

 

In my opinion... it was the combination of these two things that created the impressive list of Twins pitchers at the top of the MLB appearance rankings. 

 

I don't know if I've mentioned this before in other posts but in case I haven't.  -- In 2019... I want 25 guys who can play and every player on the 25 man to be trusted and utilized.

 

Great post! Honestly don't know where to place 50%, 75%, etc, of the blame on the pen usage. But there is a HUGE difference in hiding a live arm like Johan Santana, or Pressly, vs someone who clearly doesn't have "it" or is just too far away to help. And we did it two years in a row now. Again, I don't know where all the blame lies here. But I will say I thought the Rochester shuttle for pen usage was utilized better in 2017 than 2018. Further, I still can't understand the lack of opportunity for a couple guys at the end of last season.

 

What I do know is we need better arms for the pen next season. And we do need to do a better job of utilizing tne arms we do have in 2019.

[Riverbrian]

 

Great post! Honestly don't know where to place 50%, 75%, etc, of the blame on the pen usage. But there is a HUGE difference in hiding a live arm like Johan Santana, or Pressly, vs someone who clearly doesn't have "it" or is just too far away to help. And we did it two years in a row now. Again, I don't know where all the blame lies here. But I will say I thought the Rochester shuttle for pen usage was utilized better in 2017 than 2018. Further, I still can't understand the lack of opportunity for a couple guys at the end of last season.

What I do know is we need better arms for the pen next season. And we do need to do a better job of utilizing tne arms we do have in 2019.

 

Ultimately the blame goes to the people who hire the people. The people have now hired new people. 

 

I'm hoping 2019 will be different. 

[howieramone2]

 

I'm not sure we can even put those 2 on the really good list. May had a good short stint after TJS but is far from a proven commodity in the bullpen. Rogers had a lights out 2nd half and a pedestrian 1st half.

I agree. May pitched himself back into the mix, but no more than that.