How should the Twins approach their pitching depth

[Kelly Vance]

I'd extend Gibson, not trade him.  He has earned more respect that he is getting. I agree with finding another front line starter. If we have numbers to trade 3 for 1 I'd try to do that. 

 

I think the way to win a Series is to have two stud pitchers (Sale and Price level) and then some other guys until we go back to 1 and 2. 

 

Nobody has ever won a World Series with a ****ty pitching staff

[nicksaviking]

How is this not conflict of interest?

Yeah, it’s just, no words. I’m sure he’ll give up his agency upon being hired but how does he look Noah Syndergaard in the eye when he starts making decisions that are in ownership’s best interest at the player’s expense?

 

Or is this going to usher in some new era utopia where player interests and owner interests magically align. I would presume in the utopia where both players and owners are satisfied it means fans are doubly screwed?

[DocBauer]

I'd extend Gibson, not trade him.  He has earned more respect that he is getting. I agree with finding another front line starter. If we have numbers to trade 3 for 1 I'd try to do that. 

 

I think the way to win a Series is to have two stud pitchers (Sale and Price level) and then some other guys until we go back to 1 and 2. 

 

Nobody has ever won a World Series with a ****ty pitching staff

Liked your post. Agree and disagree with it.

 

Agree 100% on Gibson! Both with an extension and general lack of respect with some. Good start his first 2 seasons, horrible season and a half, followed by "figuring it out". He's a keeper!

 

Don't disagree, in theory, with a 3-1 or 4-1 trade for a front line SP. System depth allows for that.

 

But putting myself in the place of the FO, I see a still improving Berrios with Gibson, a potential stud in Romero, and a couple nice pieces in Odorizzi and Pineda, along with guys like Gonsalves, (who I like), Thorpe, a potential fast riser like Graterol, maybe Wells and Littell, and I wonder at making a big move at this time vs mid season or next off season.

 

Honestly, were I in charge, I'd bring in a pair of high quality bullpen arms to go along with what I have, might still have in guys like Reed, Reed, Curtiss, etc, and play out my rotation depth initially.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Liked your post. Agree and disagree with it.

 

Agree 100% on Gibson! Both with an extension and general lack of respect with some. Good start his first 2 seasons, horrible season and a half, followed by "figuring it out". He's a keeper!

 

Don't disagree, in theory, with a 3-1 or 4-1 trade for a front line SP. System depth allows for that.

 

But putting myself in the place of the FO, I see a still improving Berrios with Gibson, a potential stud in Romero, and a couple nice pieces in Odorizzi and Pineda, along with guys like Gonsalves, (who I like), Thorpe, a potential fast riser like Graterol, maybe Wells and Littell, and I wonder at making a big move at this time vs mid season or next off season.

 

Honestly, were I in charge, I'd bring in a pair of high quality bullpen arms to go along with what I have, might still have in guys like Reed, Reed, Curtiss, etc, and play out my rotation depth initially.

agreed on bullpen focus, but I don’t trust Pineda. I’d look for another mid rotation type.

[Rosterman]

The Twins have a lot of depth for pitching on their 40-man. Basically the major league AND Rochester pitching staffs. So, some can (should) go. But they really don't have names to take the place on the field side of the 40-man roster...yet.

 

You can never have too much pitching. You do have to look at who would work in 2020 when you have to make decisions on Gibson, Pineda and Odorizzi coming off the staff. Who will be out of options. Who might be pushed off the roster anyways (and can you trade them NOW). Remember, the Twins will have another 3-5 pitching candidates to add to the 40-man come 2020...possibly.

[Kirbek]

To heck with pitching.  Score some runs.  Take Mauer's pay plus the pay you would have gave a future Tommy John surgery recipient, and turn it into Bryce Harper's salary.  Trade Buxton away for some good relief pitching, and let's do openers.

[yarnivek1972]

agreed on bullpen focus, but I don’t trust Pineda. I’d look for another mid rotation type.

Not trusting Pineda either but another mid rotation type doesn’t move the needle. Go big or go home.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Not trusting Pineda either but another mid rotation type doesn’t move the needle. Go big or go home.

for the annual cost of one needle mover starter the FO can get two or three lights out relievers (or two lights out relievers and one ok starter) There’s 60 mil to spend this season, but 2 years from now, there’s not near as much payroll flexibility when the young core goes to free agency.

 

 

 

Relievers can provide much more bang for your buck and come on two or three year deal

[yarnivek1972]

for the annual cost of one needle mover starter the FO can get two or three lights out relievers (or two lights out relievers and one ok starter) There’s 60 mil to spend this season, but 2 years from now, there’s not near as much payroll flexibility when the young core goes to free agency.

 

 

 

Relievers can provide much more bang for your buck and come on two or three year deal

First, I don’t happen to agree that 2 lights out relievers are more valuable than a legit ace. 2 relievers will pitch 150-165 innings. An ace should get 200 easy or he isn’t a true ace. I realize the game has changed even since Gardy said this but I still cringe when I recall his rationalization for keeping Johan in the pen rather than letting him start way back when. Second, I don’t think there are 3 available lights out relievers.

 

Unless MLB increases roster sizes, IMO reliance on relievers to pitch more and more of the game is a recipe for disaster.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

First, I don’t happen to agree that 2 lights out relievers are more valuable than a legit ace. 2 relievers will pitch 150-165 innings. An ace should get 200 easy or he isn’t a true ace. I realize the game has changed even since Gardy said this but I still cringe when I recall his rationalization for keeping Johan in the pen rather than letting him start way back when. Second, I don’t think there are 3 available lights out relievers.

 

Unless MLB increases roster sizes, IMO reliance on relievers to pitch more and more of the game is a recipe for disaster.

there were 10 or 11 pitchers that exceeded 200 innings in 2018. I don’t believe any of them to be free agents.

 

Johan relieving is irrelevant, and I agree, if you can throw like deGrom or Johan, let her buck! I just don’t see it as likely that the Twins can acquire that from the outside, and if they do, it’s a prospect that “comes out of nowhere” in 3 years but the TD minor league die hards have fawned over for 2 years

[Squirrel]

So it sounds like the Mets are going to hire this Brodie van Wagonen guy to be their GM. His current job is as agent to half of the Mets team including deGrom and Syndergaard. I mean this is all very pretty weird, and it should be fun to see how screwed up the Mets end up, but I'm thinking it's going to be a pretty safe bet that those two pitchers will NOT be available this off season?

If I were those two I’d be looking for a new agent.

[bird]

If guys like Slegers and Littell are not good enough to force their way into the rotation ahead of Odorizzi, I don't see why they make sense as bullpen pieces. The Twins need to set their sights equally high there.

 

Frankly, they need to set their sights high enough to go outside the system, now, for a front line starter and a shut down reliever. Push the others back, and if the ones who get voted off the island aren't better than the the other candidates for the AAA rotation? Trade a guy like Slegers to a team with crap for AAA depth in exchange for a pitcher you like in their system down in the lower levels. 

 

Falvey needs to focus on improving the quality of this pitching staff. It needs to be better than league average if they want to go anywhere. If FA options aren't enticing or feasible, go the trade route, but they need another starter that equals or exceeds Gibson and Berrios as the standard for a front line starter. And they need another reliever that stacks up well compared to May and Rogers.

 

I'd be inclined to use Romero in relief. Maybe Stewart too, if he can throw it over the plate more consistently.

 

I'm actually kind of encouraged to think of Slegers and Littell as maybe fighting for a spot in the AAA rotation. We went a number of years where those types weren't even there as the first call-up when the inevitable injury required it. Ideally, you want a AA rotation 5-deep with prospects as good or better than them.

[USAFChief]

If guys like Slegers and Littell are not good enough to force their way into the rotation ahead of Odorizzi, I don't see why they make sense as bullpen pieces. The Twins need to set their sights equally high there.

 

Frankly, they need to set their sights high enough to go outside the system, now, for a front line starter and a shut down reliever. Push the others back, and if the ones who get voted off the island aren't better than the the other candidates for the AAA rotation? Trade a guy like Slegers to a team with crap for AAA depth in exchange for a pitcher you like in their system down in the lower levels.

 

Falvey needs to focus on improving the quality of this pitching staff. It needs to be better than league average if they want to go anywhere. If FA options aren't enticing or feasible, go the trade route, but they need another starter that equals or exceeds Gibson and Berrios as the standard for a front line starter. And they need another reliever that stacks up well compared to May and Rogers.

 

I'd be inclined to use Romero in relief. Maybe Stewart too, if he can throw it over the plate more consistently.

 

I'm actually kind of encouraged to think of Slegers and Littell as maybe fighting for a spot in the AAA rotation. We went a number of years where those types weren't even there as the first call-up when the inevitable injury required it. Ideally, you want a AA rotation 5-deep with prospects as good or better than them.

Concur.

 

When u watch the postseason, what you DONT see is AAA pitching.

[RaymondLuxuryYacht]

Most starters figure out the Majors within their first 25 IP.  Ergo, time to bail on Gonsalves

[yarnivek1972]

Most starters figure out the Majors within their first 25 IP. Ergo, time to bail on Gonsalves

Like Jose Berrios did?

 

Do you have any actual data or examples to back that statement up or are you pulling it out of thin air?

[USAFChief]

Like Jose Berrios did?

 

Do you have any actual data or examples to back that statement up or are you pulling it out of thin air?

I'm guessing there was a touch of sarcasm in the post you quoted.

[Doomtints]

 

I'm guessing there was a touch of sarcasm in the post you quoted.

 

Most readers figure out Sarcasm within the first 25 characters.Ergo, time to bail on this Thread

[RaymondLuxuryYacht]

 

I'm guessing there was a touch of sarcasm in the post you quoted.

A touch????

[ashbury]

Most readers figure out Sarcasm within the first 25 characters.Ergo, time to bail on this Thread

[Riverbrian]

 

 

I think the way to win a Series is to have two stud pitchers (Sale and Price level) and then some other guys until we go back to 1 and 2. 

 

Nobody has ever won a World Series with a ****ty pitching staff

 

This always sounds great and it's the type of statement that can get people to their feet and say "Yeah Get Us Sale and Price". 

 

The only problem... it's not exactly true. 

 

Of the 4 starting pitchers that Boston has used in the playoffs... Sale and Price have the worst stats. They haven't been bad but they haven't been lights out.

 

It has been Eovaldi who has been lights out. Porcello has been their 2nd best pitcher.

 

And going into the Playoffs... All the talk in Boston was about how they needed to get starting pitching at the deadline,nobody was really trusting Price anymore and the assumption was that he could end up back in the bullpen like the year before.  Speaking of last year... Sale made two appearances in the 2017 playoffs and was absolutely killed.

 

Back to this year... All the Sox added at the deadline to feed the screaming masses was Eovaldi, a guy who throws 100 but hasn't had a healthy or productive season since... I don't know... a long time ago. Meanwhile, Brock Holt, Eduardo Nunez, Jackie Bradley Jr are coming up big while Mookie Betts has not.

 

In Milwaukee, Orlando Arcia had a .576 OPS during the season and it was Arcia with all his might trying to do his best to drag the dead Brewer offense around come playoff time because Yelich, Moustakas and Schoop were nowhere to be found and it wasn't Kershaw that killed the Brewer offense because it was another so-so off season for the undisputed stud of the mound... Clayton Kershaw.  

 

The Brewers very nearly out-dueled Kershaw and crew with Chacin, Miley and Woodruff, a dead offense led by Arcia and bullpen options. 

 

Yes... I recognize that Bumgarner and Jack Morris happened and they were performances for the ages. But... the game is in a clear shift now. 

 

The Royals won in 2015 with their bullpen. 

 

Andrew Miller with the Indians in 2016 took things a step further. The Indians just about won it all with Kluber, Miller leading in innings while Tomlin did just enough and Bauer stunk up the joint. 

 

I'm not saying that the Twins shouldn't go get Sale, Price, Kershaw or the equivalent. I agree with you on that. I'll welcome them with open arms but, personally... I'm past the point of looking at attractive names.

 

I just want performance now. I'm just plain tired of watching a guy with a 5 plus ERA anywhere on the pitching staff. 

 

It's a new world and the Twins just need to identify "Pitching Period" and then figure out how to proportion the innings accordingly. 

 

At some point, the analysts in the front office are going to come to the conclusion that it is questionable to give Jake Odorizzi 164 Innings and Taylor Rogers 68 Innings when Rogers was better. We are so locked into roles that Rogers can only throw 1 inning at a time and Odorizzi has to throw at least 5 to 6 innings every time without putting a monkey in the wrench. 

 

It took 1443 innings to get through 2018. There are about 13 roster spots reserved for pitchers. This is where Baldelli gets to figure out who gets the innings and I am praying to the baseball gods, the front office, Rocco Baldelli and TwinsDaily that the ones who get the innings in 2019 are the ones who actually get people out.

 

[Riverbrian]

Where did McCullers spend September? In the Astros Bullpen along with ex-starters McHugh and Peacock. Where Joe Musgrove pitched out of before being traded to the Pirates and then seemlessly returned to the rotation with the Pirates with good result and his arm not falling off. 

 

Where is Maeda? In the Bullpen along with Urias and Wood. This is how teams with starting pitching depth handle starting pitching depth. They don't get confused by the "S" or "R" in front of the "P". 

 

We have bullpen space to handle our overflow.. 

 

We have multiple pitchers with options to control the amount of our overflow. 

 

 

[ashbury]

At some point, the analysts in the front office are going to come to the conclusion that it is questionable to give Jake Odorizzi 164 Innings and Taylor Rogers 68 Innings when Rogers was better.

One pitcher gets his appearances cherry-picked by the best analytics the team can muster. The other is told by the manager, "go as hard as you can, for as long as you can". The disparity in performance might not hold up if either one found himself in a different role.

[Riverbrian]

 

One pitcher gets his appearances cherry-picked by the best analytics the team can muster. The other is told by the manager, "go as hard as you can, for as long as you can". The disparity in performance might not hold up if either one found himself in a different role.

 

Very true but the walls are coming down. We are going to find out if Rogers can throw two or three innings. He used to start in the minors. 

 

The Rays have blurred the lines... Baldelli was part of the line blurring. Ryan Yarbrough started 6 games for the Rays and he was 2nd on the team in innings pitched with 147. The Rays are going to continue to get more innings out of the bullpen and less innings out of starters and I'm willing to bet the Twins will be trying the same. 

 

There were 1443 innings pitched by the Twins in 2018. A similiar amount to be pitched in 2019. 13 roster spots reserved for pitching and a disparity between how many innings thrown by bad starters and how many innings thrown by lights out relievers. 

 

The disparity is going to close. Divide 1443 by 13 roster spots and that's what pitching could end up looking like. 

[nicksaviking]

Concur.

When u watch the postseason, what you DONT see is AAA pitching.

Nonsense. I’ve seen Brian Duensing start not one, but two different playoff games.

 

 

Oooooh....

[The Wise One]

 

Nonsense. I’ve seen Brian Duensing start not one, but two different playoff games.


Oooooh....

That is why the Cubs have not returned to the world series. THE CURSE OF DUENSING

[mlhouse]

The fact that this is a question really proves what I have been saying these past couple of years.  These questions should have answers.   We should already know enough about almost all of these pitching prospects to move forward.  But we don't.   More time is going to have to be wasted to answer the questions.

 

Gonsalves.  Romero.  Stewart.   Curtiss.   Vasquez.  Moya.  Meijia.  Even Luke Bard.   You can pretend that these are "young" prospects, but next season the youngest amongst this group will be 24 years old.  And we don't have a real clue if any of them will be contributors going forward despite lots and lots of losses, and mediocre at best guys pitching instead of them.

[Platoon]

I thought Romero got sort of the shirt end of the deal considering his arm talent and the Twins place in the standings. I agree that you can never have too many pitchers. But if you restrict them to labels such as SP or RP your list can get bogged down. With the emphasis on short starts, and "openers" some of these guys should be converted to BP arms, or packaged for a MI. The Twins cunundrum is they have plenty arms. But will any rise above the level of mediocrity. Avoiding attrition should not be the main reason you keep a pitcher.

[The Wise One]

 

The fact that this is a question really proves what I have been saying these past couple of years.  These questions should have answers.   We should already know enough about almost all of these pitching prospects to move forward.  But we don't.   More time is going to have to be wasted to answer the questions.

 

Gonsalves.  Romero.  Stewart.   Curtiss.   Vasquez.  Moya.  Meijia.  Even Luke Bard.   You can pretend that these are "young" prospects, but next season the youngest amongst this group will be 24 years old.  And we don't have a real clue if any of them will be contributors going forward despite lots and lots of losses, and mediocre at best guys pitching instead of them.

 Gonsalves will turn 24 during the season. Age and development does not matter when the ceiling is high. See Kluber, Corey. See Hicks, Aaron as recent examples. of late bloomers. Doe the team ditch all the 24-25 year old players that are not superstars? The sold off Ryan Pressly was 29 and still developing. There is no simple formula for when to give up. 

[caninatl04]

I still think Flavine will use all of their “new guys goodwill” clock and will not try to compete in 2019. Instead, I see just about everyone on the above list being auditioned this year. I agree that should have happened in August and Certainly September this year.

 

On a different note, the available free agent SS with the second highest WAR last year was the Tigers’ Iglesias— a career .270 zero power hitter. I could see the Twins going after him with a two or three year contract while moving Polanco to second.

[yarnivek1972]

I still think Flavine will use all of their “new guys goodwill” clock and will not try to compete in 2019. Instead, I see just about everyone on the above list being auditioned this year. I agree that should have happened in August and Certainly September this year.

 

On a different note, the available free agent SS with the second highest WAR last year was the Tigers’ Iglesias— a career .270 zero power hitter. I could see the Twins going after him with a two or three year contract while moving Polanco to second.

If the Twins aren’t going to try to contend next year, what is the point of that acquisition? Roll with Adrianza until Gordon is deemed ready enough for a shot.