Twins, OAK a good match? Gibson & Odorizzi available

[h2oface]

 

 

May may be the best forgotten pitcher out there.

 

 

May may also be what he always has been. A mediocre piece. Or even worse after the surgery. May = hope and dreams, still. 

 

I wonder if Pineda has taken this opportunity to actually get in shape for once in his MLB career, or will bring the tonnage to the mound, still. To count on success the year after TJ is a huge risk. Better to plan on it not being a help, and have it be a surprise that forces its way into the rotation, if it happens.

[Dman]

 

We should just trade all of the veterans for minor league players.  Then we should trade all of our rookies because they will not be here when we are relevant again and we really need to build up our farm system.  In fact our AA and AAA guys wont even be here either so we should trade them until we have the strongest team or 16 year-olds playing in the gulf coast league and just maybe we can be relevant again before they reach the majors and then Free Agency in the next 15 years give or take.  We may have to do another tear down or two pushing our contention window out another 10 years or so making it 25 years before we are relevant again.   

 

Or we could just go for it this year.  I mean we do have some issues but a few of them have corrected themselves.  so if Rooker or Sano can make it up and mash or if Morrison hits when he gets back from the DL, that is our biggest problem solved.  

 

Grossman, Dozier, Garver, Cave, Polanco, and Mauer are hitting so we would only need a DH to step forward and another C to go with Garver and our offense should be in high gear.  We have 6 or 7 starters who should be starting for us.  The question is can we find a 4th or 5th starter who can pitch like a 3 to finish out the season and how will Santana do when he gets back?  The rotation and pen as a whole are average.  can we win enough games with an improved offense to contend if not win this year?  Contending to the end of the season is good enough for me if we try and do not win its ok, and better than quitting.  Finishing 1 or 2 games back of the playoffs at the end of the year is better than quitting now and walking away and loosing a bunch of games to close out the season,  Odds are against us winning the division but I would like to see how the next few weeks play out before i go all negative again.  I did give up a week ago and do not have high expectations yet.  But i would like to see if they can get hot now and make a run of it.  That is more fun than quitting on the season.   I hate quitting on the season

 

I don't know if a winning season is enough for me anymore.  While watching a crappy team really takes the joy out of the year in the age of super teams so does losing in the first round of the playoffs.  Does this Twins team look like it could compete with Houston, New York or Boston for seven games?  I don't think so.  Personally if they get some prospect Lotto tickets for rentals I am all in.  This team needs more depth and higher quality players.

 

Yeah, yeah I know the guys we have to trade likely won't get us any top 100 prospects but losing Lynn or Odo isn't going to really hurt this team either.  If the FO can find takers and get some quality prospects in return that is the direction I think can change this teams fortunes in the future.  Standing pat does nothing for me.

 

We have a second wave of young pitching coming up with Graterol, Enlow, Balazovic, Maybe a few others if we get lucky.  Try and find more quality arms in that range giving us greater odds of a few home grown number 2 or 3's.  We have a second wave of hitters coming up as well.  Let's try to build a super team instead of maintaining mediocrity.

 

[old nurse]

If Gibson  is Shark and Oakland thinks they can tweak one of the other two back to a greeat mid rotation pitcher,  who knows if the will overpay   The last time they made the big push Oakland ended up nothing and the trading tree ended up with the Cubs having the right in the world series. If Levine can pull that off he might be free of criticism for a week or two, 

[Badsmerf]

My first post on the baseball forum.... maybe all year....

 

The Twins would be crazy not to look into trading Gibson. Toy are all crazy to assume he has turned a corner and won't turn back into a pumpkin. If another team will give up some value, you trade him. Gibson is 30, and will almost certainly opt for free agency.

 

I'm on team fire sale.

[Danchat]

I would definitely want to trade Odorizzi if I could... the A's can get an extra year of him if they wish because I'm not sure I want the Twins to tender him in 2019. I'd be willing to trade Lynn for about anybody. Like, as in "any body".

 

I would be very cautious about trading Gibson. I'd rather keep him in the rotation next year unless someone offers a worthwhile package for him.

[Badsmerf]

I would be very cautious about trading Gibson. I'd rather keep him in the rotation next year unless someone offers a worthwhile package for him.

Why? Did the twins can win 78 games instead of 75? Makes no sense. He is going to free agency, there is no reason not to trade him at peak value. The offer has to be right, but this team is going nowhere in 2019.

[Danchat]

 

Why? Did the twins can win 78 games instead of 75? Makes no sense. He is going to free agency, there is no reason not to trade him at peak value. The offer has to be right, but this team is going nowhere in 2019.

You mean he's going to free agency at the end of the 2019 season, right? He's a lock to be tendered for the 2019 season at this point. I do agree that he's at his peak value right now and it's the perfect time to trade him, but I do think we can compete in the 2019 season and he's our second best starter right now - I think it's fine to punt on 2018 but punting on 2019 would be foolish at this point.

[ChrisKnutson]

Great point on the fit. He's a fly ball pitcher, and his pitches get fouled off a ton. Perfect for Oakland.

Jake isn’t the type of guy that teams overpay for though, which begs the question, what is Odorizzi worth?

[Mr. Brooks]

Jake isn’t the type of guy that teams overpay for though, which begs the question, what is Odorizzi worth?

The rough equivalent of Jermaine Palacios, minus a half season worth of team control.

[USAFChief]

Why? Did the twins can win 78 games instead of 75? Makes no sense. He is going to free agency, there is no reason not to trade him at peak value. The offer has to be right, but this team is going nowhere in 2019.

Gibson is still under team control in 2019.

[Badsmerf]

You mean he's going to free agency at the end of the 2019 season, right? He's a lock to be tendered for the 2019 season at this point. I do agree that he's at his peak value right now and it's the perfect time to trade him, but I do think we can compete in the 2019 season and he's our second best starter right now - I think it's fine to punt on 2018 but punting on 2019 would be foolish at this point.

Yes. Why is next year going to be different? No use making terrible trades like Ramos for Capps, but they have to use the available talent to make this organization better. This will not be a championship caliber team next year, why hold on to a guy when a trade could potentially improve it for years to come?

[Badsmerf]

Gibson is still under team control in 2019.

And the twins are gong to miss the playoffs regardless.

[ChrisKnutson]

The rough equivalent of Jermaine Palacios, minus a half season worth of team control.

The closest comp I got to Palacios is SS Richie Martin, seems fair, maybe even a steal.

[nicksaviking]

Sure, I'll take any living human for Lance Lynn at this point.

For your Lance Lynn you receive one Ricky Nolasco. Congrats.

[tvagle]

 

Jake isn’t the type of guy that teams overpay for though, which begs the question, what is Odorizzi worth?

 

How about their #27 best prospect Santis Sanchez?

 

Big Arm might hit for power

 

 http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2018?list=oak

[Number3]

Everyone wants to be the GM. It amazes me that the 60-60-42 rule always works. Even the Twins made it to 59 in 2016 and maybe the Os won't make it this year but that's it. So 60 wins are practically guaranteed and so are 60 losses except for the few teams that manage to win 103+ games. So a team doesn't have to be great to be competitive; just stay competitive and make common sense decisions to put the best team on the field every game. It takes 2 to make a trade and more and more the young relatively unknowns are the ones making a difference. If the Twins can't scout well and find and develop the raw talent wherever it may be, they are doomed to remain middle of the pack; I don't care who they get for Lance Lynn.

[Dman]

 

I don't think trading Lynn or Odorizzi and continuing to try to compete for the division are mutually exclusive.  Neither is giving us that much more than one of the AAA pitchers could give and we have Santana coming back.  Trading Lynn is a no brainer and I'd trade Odorizzi if we can get a decent prospect in return. 

 

The harder choices are Dozier, Gibson and Santana, both of whom could help us be more competitive in the second half.   I would keep Santana and exercise his option next year if he's healthy.  Dozier looks like he is leaving but I'd try to keep him on a 2 year deal if that's possible.  It probably isn't, so I'd keep him this year and take the risk of him walking away next year. Gordon isn't ready and at the rate he's going isn't going to be ready next year either.  We always have Escobar or Adrianza/Polanco as fallback options, particularly if Sano can come back and play 3B.

 

Finally, KEEP Gibson. Solid #2/3 guys don;'t grow on trees. We have one for this year and at least next.  Keep him and try to sign him longer term, particularly if he'll take 3 years or less after next year. DO NOT trade Gibson unless we get MLB ready pitching talent or a serious hitter that we have confidence will be an .800 or higher OPS guy and who is 28 or under. In other words, don't trade him. 

 

I think it depends on how you view this team but I have gone back and forth on Dozier and Esco as well.  If they could get them to sign two year deals with maybe a third option year I would be fine just rolling with them.  Since that is unlikely I think it makes sense to trade one or both of them if the return is reasonable.  I say trade them because there is no guarantee they sign with the Twins after this year and even if the Twins magically caught the Indians and made the playoffs this team isn't built to compete with NY, Boston, or Houston. 

 

Trading Gibson is a tough one.  He is an older pitcher with fairly recent success.  Is it sustainable?  Seems to be but selling high wouldn't be a terrible idea either.  It would take getting a top 100 prospect in return (preferably a pitcher) and a couple of other decent pieces to get that done and I don't know if the Twins can find a partner to get that anyway.  The return would have to be good because if he pitches well next year then the worst the Twins could do is lose him on a QO and likely get draft pick compensation.  But trading essentially one year of control for another six on the prospects gained is like trading in your old car for a new one.  Just have to be careful not to get a lemon.

 

I don't see Santana factoring in this year unless he comes back hot and they get him through waivers.  His health is still too uncertain for teams to want to deal for him.  He is also quite old so his value is very limited.  I don't see teams being willing to give much up for him. Twins are likely best off seeing how he does this year and triggering his option if they believe he is an asset to the roster next year.

[jorgenswest]

If the Twins believe in Gibson they need to keep him into next year. A year from now they can trade him if they are sellers and get nearly the same return.

 

One risk is that he will not pitch well and they missed an opportunity to sell high. Another risk is that they will trade him and a year from now be looking for a starter at the deadline performing like Gibson. At that point they have to give the prospect value back and have that pitcher for less than half a season.

 

Unless they think his performance will drop off they need to keep him until they find five better starters.

[TheLeviathan]

 

If the Twins believe in Gibson they need to keep him into next year. A year from now they can trade him if they are sellers and get nearly the same return.
 

 

I disagree.  I think a great deal of his value right now is tied up in the amount of team control he has.  Next year he is a rental.  This year he is not.

[Mike Sixel]

 

If the Twins believe in Gibson they need to keep him into next year. A year from now they can trade him if they are sellers and get nearly the same return.

One risk is that he will not pitch well and they missed an opportunity to sell high. Another risk is that they will trade him and a year from now be looking for a starter at the deadline performing like Gibson. At that point they have to give the prospect value back and have that pitcher for less than half a season.

Unless they think his performance will drop off they need to keep him until they find five better starters.

 

It simply isn't true the return is the same with less control. See FG trade series for evidence....

[jorgenswest]

It simply isn't true the return is the same with less control. See FG trade series for evidence....

Right now teams must see Gibson as a little bit of a question mark going forward. He still hasn’t had a full season of good performance. At best he has to be seen as reliably improving the back end of a rotation for a contender.

 

If he continues his performance over the next year teams will have much more confidence that he can be a viable starter in play off games. Though he will have less service time he will be a more desired pitcher.

 

The gamble for the Twins is whether they bet on this being his high point or whether they think he can sustain this level. If they believe he can sustain this level they need to keep him into next year.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Right now teams must see Gibson as a little bit of a question mark going forward. He still hasn’t had a full season of good performance. At best he has to be seen as reliably improving the back end of a rotation for a contender.

If he continues his performance over the next year teams will have much more confidence that he can be a viable starter in play off games. Though he will have less service time he will be a more desired pitcher.

The gamble for the Twins is whether they bet on this being his high point or whether they think he can sustain this level. If they believe he can sustain this level they need to keep him into next year.

 

If he sustains it....so what?  He's going to be 32 by the end of his team control.  His trade value will never be higher and he won't be a Twin by November of 2019.

[Dman]

 

If the Twins believe in Gibson they need to keep him into next year. A year from now they can trade him if they are sellers and get nearly the same return.

One risk is that he will not pitch well and they missed an opportunity to sell high. Another risk is that they will trade him and a year from now be looking for a starter at the deadline performing like Gibson. At that point they have to give the prospect value back and have that pitcher for less than half a season.

Unless they think his performance will drop off they need to keep him until they find five better starters.

 

Are you sure you understand trade value?  If the Twins traded Gibson and he has a good season again next year then that team can either trade him at the deadline or offer the QO and gain a draft pick.  So they have an opportunity to get value back.  That would be factored into the trade so the Twins would expect to get much more than a potential supplemental 1st rounder or deadline rental deal because as you said they have the potential to get that next year or keep Gibson if they are in contention.  So no I doubt they will get nearly the the same return next year.

 

In the deal with the Giants we only got Meija a borderline top 100 pitcher because Nunez had an extra year of control and if I remember correctly the Giants were able to get value back as they traded him to another team the next year.  Typically rentals get you a top 10 to 20 player in a teams system and or maybe a lotto ticket.  That is a pretty big difference in return IMO.  That extra year of control carry's a lot of value for the team receiving the player.  value the Twins would need to receive to move him.

 

Your point about the risk of moving him with no one to truly to replace his production next year is a good one.  The Twins would have to decide if they think this team as constructed can really compete next year or whether they need to build toward toward a different window of contention.  If they don't trade him and stink with Gibson next year then they wasted an opportunity to get better as well.  So there is risk both ways.

[laloesch]

 

We should just trade all of the veterans for minor league players.  Then we should trade all of our rookies because they will not be here when we are relevant again and we really need to build up our farm system.  In fact our AA and AAA guys wont even be here either so we should trade them until we have the strongest team or 16 year-olds playing in the gulf coast league and just maybe we can be relevant again before they reach the majors and then Free Agency in the next 15 years give or take.  We may have to do another tear down or two pushing our contention window out another 10 years or so making it 25 years before we are relevant again.   

 

Or we could just go for it this year.  I mean we do have some issues but a few of them have corrected themselves.  so if Rooker or Sano can make it up and mash or if Morrison hits when he gets back from the DL, that is our biggest problem solved.  

 

Grossman, Dozier, Garver, Cave, Polanco, and Mauer are hitting so we would only need a DH to step forward and another C to go with Garver and our offense should be in high gear.  We have 6 or 7 starters who should be starting for us.  The question is can we find a 4th or 5th starter who can pitch like a 3 to finish out the season and how will Santana do when he gets back?  The rotation and pen as a whole are average.  can we win enough games with an improved offense to contend if not win this year?  Contending to the end of the season is good enough for me if we try and do not win its ok, and better than quitting.  Finishing 1 or 2 games back of the playoffs at the end of the year is better than quitting now and walking away and loosing a bunch of games to close out the season,  Odds are against us winning the division but I would like to see how the next few weeks play out before i go all negative again.  I did give up a week ago and do not have high expectations yet.  But i would like to see if they can get hot now and make a run of it.  That is more fun than quitting on the season.   I hate quitting on the season

 

Your joking right?  This team isn't going for it in 2018 nor are the going to make the playoffs. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'm not ready to punt on 2019 by trading both Odorizzi and Gibson (particularly Gibson).

 

This team is going to have a boatload of money going into the offseason and it's unlikely 2019 Cleveland is better than the current Cleveland team. The rest of the division is a joke and will continue to be a joke next season.

 

We can talk about competing with New York, Boston, and Houston but I just want to see the damned postseason again.

 

The risk of competing and losing players next season outweighs the modest returns on those players this season, IMO.

 

Build the best damned team you can, run with it, and hope the young players take the necessary step forward.

[Dman]

 

I'm not ready to punt on 2019 by trading both Odorizzi and Gibson (particularly Gibson).

 

This team is going to have a boatload of money going into the offseason and it's unlikely 2019 Cleveland is better than the current Cleveland team. The rest of the division is a joke and will continue to be a joke next season.

 

We can talk about competing with New York, Boston, and Houston but I just want to see the damned postseason again.

 

The risk of competing and losing players next season outweighs the modest returns on those players this season, IMO.

 

Build the best damned team you can, run with it, and hope the young players take the necessary step forward.

 

If they traded Gibson the return would not be modest.  The Post season is nice it makes for a fun year watching the team but when you get killed in the first round what is the point?  You need to build a team that can compete with the big boys or the result is essentially the same.  Do the things necessary to get there and you will get there.  Do things to just make it and you will be mediocre forever.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

If they traded Gibson the return would not be modest.  The Post season is nice it makes for a fun year watching the team but when you get killed in the first round what is the point?  You need to build a team that can compete with the big boys or the result is essentially the same.  Do the things necessary to get there and you will get there.  Do things to just make it and you will be mediocre forever.

If you're another team, what would you give up for Gibson? A top 25 prospect?

 

I wouldn't. So what would you give up? A top 50 prospect? I'd hesitate on that, too.

 

So exactly what kind of game-changer are you expecting here? Gibson will get a decent return but nothing guaranteed, not even close to it.

 

And even if you get a good player in return, you usually have to deal with a player sucking up negative WAR appearances for awhile, which hurts your team before it helps.

 

I don't care about the chance of advancing in the 2019 postseason right now, I care about the chance of getting there. Because none of us know how 2019 will shake out. What happens if Buxton comes back strong? Or Sano? Or Rooker comes out of nowhere? Or Gonsalves is a stud?

 

Put yourself in the situation to succeed so that if young players turn you from an 85 win team into a 95 win team, you're ready for it.

 

The time has passed to sit on your hands and wait for the prospects. Let's see a real attempt to win some ****ing baseball games. If you end the season with just 83 wins and miss the postseason and the most significant free agent casualty is Kyle Gibson, **** it. I don't care.

[Mr. Brooks]

I'm not ready to punt on 2019 by trading both Odorizzi and Gibson (particularly Gibson).

 

This team is going to have a boatload of money going into the offseason and it's unlikely 2019 Cleveland is better than the current Cleveland team. The rest of the division is a joke and will continue to be a joke next season.

 

We can talk about competing with New York, Boston, and Houston but I just want to see the damned postseason again.

 

The risk of competing and losing players next season outweighs the modest returns on those players this season, IMO.

 

Build the best damned team you can, run with it, and hope the young players take the necessary step forward.

Trading Odorizzi isn't punting 2019. He's got 0.5 bWAR, after posting negative bWAR last year.

He's a replaceable back of the rotation starter.

 

Of course that means the return will be minimal as well.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Trading Odorizzi isn't punting 2019. He's got 0.5 bWAR, after posting negative bWAR last year.
He's a replaceable back of the rotation starter.

Of course that means the return will be minimal as well.

Absolutely. It's not as if I'd throw a fit if they traded Odorizzi, I just don't see the point.

[alarp33]

 

 

The time has passed to sit on your hands and wait for the prospects. Let's see a real attempt to win some ****ing baseball games. If you end the season with just 83 wins and miss the postseason and the most significant free agent casualty is Kyle Gibson, **** it. I don't care.

 

I don't understand this line of thinking in the least. Thankfully the front office knows their job is to build a consistent winner, not playing to win a division only in 2019 and forgetting about the future beyond that