8.5 back

[ffwfed31]

Since I have no life outside of watching Twins can we please reel off some w's vs kc tb kc tor to give me some false hope?

[D. Hocking]

That is one thing that has been frustrating about this year.  They really only needed to be mediocre this year to have a good shot of winning the division and the play-offs.

 

I would like to say that I have seen enough over the year (years) and be smart enough not to give in to false hope, but I suspect that is not the case.

[3balls2strikes]

Things are starting to get interesting in the AL Central standings. Crazier things have happened. On September 6th, 2009, the Twins were 7 games behind Detroit, and the Twins won the division. On July 13th, 2006, the Twins were 12 games behind Detroit and 9.5 games behind Chicago, and the Twins won the division. It can be done. 

[tvagle]

Magic Number Update:

 

Division: 83

Wild Card: 89

[DocBauer]

I am one of the biggest fans you will ever find. Been following them since I was 5 and I'm 52 now. Used to follow the prospects and milb via the Star Tribune, Baseball Digest, Sporting News, Baseball America and a short lived fan rag in the late 80's whose name I can't recall any longer. I LIVE ME SOME TWINS BASEBALL!

 

But even I, ever a contender for most optimistic fan, will admit to you that without a small miracle, the Twins are done from a contention standpoint for this season.

 

Just being a realist.

 

But whether you are rooting for, or against, Molitor, there is so much to watch for the second half! When will Buxton and Sano turn the corner and build for 2019, or still help this year? The Eddie & Eddie show is awesome. Berrios is awesome. Romero has flashed awesome and will be back! Slegers, solid and with enough ability to find a role, and the even more talented Gonsalves and Mejia are going to get auditions. Maybe I'm full of it because he's probably only going to end up being a nice 4th OF complimentary piece, but I'm loving watching some of the stuff Captain Caveman is doing.

 

What's really important, at this point, is how this team develops and comes together the second half. Sometimes, in the world of sports, finishing as a strong #2 can be very important.

[jkcarew]

Things are starting to get interesting in the AL Central standings. Crazier things have happened. On September 6th, 2009, the Twins were 7 games behind Detroit, and the Twins won the division. On July 13th, 2006, the Twins were 12 games behind Detroit and 9.5 games behind Chicago, and the Twins won the division. It can be done.

 

Forget about 2006...that was a borderline great team littered with all-stars and they won 96 games. The 2009 team only had to win 87...even that would require this Twins team to finish 47-27....and you have to believe Cleveland only plays 500 ball from here on out, even though they have a ton of games remaining against Detroit, KC, Chicago.

 

Sell free agents and play the young guys.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Forget about 2006...that was a borderline great team littered with all-stars and they won 96 games. The 2009 team only had to win 87...even that would require this Twins team to finish 47-27....and you have to believe Cleveland only plays 500 ball from here on out, even though they have a ton of games remaining against Detroit, KC, Chicago.

 

Sell free agents and play the young guys.

the Twins have the second easiest strength of schedule remaining on the season. Cleveland has the easiest remaining schedule.

 

Twins can and will keep chipping away at the AL central lead. Who knows, anything can happen.

 

That shouldn’t stop the Twins from bringing up the young guys. It’s the old guys like Morrison, Belisle, and Dozier who have under performed and put them in this position. Busenitz, Gordon and Vargas or Sano (if ready) can’t be any worse.

[Nine of twelve]

Whether the team is in contention or not I always hope we win today's game.

That said, preparing for 2019 should be a high priority for how this organization approaches the rest of the 2018 season. There's reason to expect productive full seasons from Buxton, Polanco and Sano. We have young position players and young pitchers who appear to be close. Give some of the youngsters major league experience this year so they will be more ready to make significant contributions next year.

[Number3]

"Whether the team is in contention or not I always hope we win today's game."

 

 Do your best to win win today's game while at the same time keeping the long season in mind and the future of the team in mind. That is the riddle of professional sports especially baseball with its 162 games.

The fact is that even the possibility of sneaking into the Central and facing the Yankees in the wc game again is too good to pass up. As long as the Twins can keep winning at home and stay within striking distance, please don't quit on this season. Sept. schedule looks exciting with 3 at Houston, 3 at home against Yankees, 3 at A's and rest against White Sox, Rangers, Tigers, and Royals. Finish the season with 7 Target games against Tigers and White Sox. Could be a lot of fun.

[Monkeypaws]

Amazing what a visit from by far the 2 worst teams in baseball can do for restoring the faith.

[Puckett34]

 

That is one thing that has been frustrating about this year.  They really only needed to be mediocre this year to have a good shot of winning the division and the play-offs.

 

I would like to say that I have seen enough over the year (years) and be smart enough not to give in to false hope, but I suspect that is not the case.

Here's the thing though, outside of two separate 2-8 stretches (4/12-4/26 & 6/21-7/1), they have been the definition of mediocre.     Even a little over .500 at 36-32.    It hasn't been pretty for the most part and the hole they've dug may be too deep.    But I have no reason to believe that the roster as it currently stands cannot at least be competitive for the remaining 74 games.      I know you can't take away the 4-16 that I left off and this roster is also capable of that as well.

 

Now, this is subject to change if they sell off some valuable pieces.

 

I hate it when the optimism starts to creep back in.   Just let me be a curmudgeon or not.  This yo-yo business is exhausting.   

[ThejacKmp]

 

Forget about 2006...that was a borderline great team littered with all-stars and they won 96 games. The 2009 team only had to win 87...even that would require this Twins team to finish 47-27....and you have to believe Cleveland only plays 500 ball from here on out, even though they have a ton of games remaining against Detroit, KC, Chicago.

Sell free agents and play the young guys.

 

The Twins play 10 more games against Cleveland. If they go 8-2 in those games, they only need to make up 2.5 games. It's not about the overall record, it's the head-to-head.

 

That 2006 team was full of all-stars but it was also full of below replacement level players. Very top heavy. This Twins rotation doesn't have Santana but it has a much better 1-6 that can keep the Twins in games. The lineup has underperformed but that's what you want when making big comebacks - a team that should play better than it has.

 

The reality is that the free agents they have aren't going to fetch much (Lynn and Escobar might if the right team has a need but most of the AL is realistically looking to sell so this isn't a seller's market). If they can move Rodney, they should and bring up a AAA arm that might be better overall. Keep Escobar and sign him to an extension this offseason. See what happens. The Indians are flawed and the Twins have the potential to play much better than they have.

[ThejacKmp]

 

"Whether the team is in contention or not I always hope we win today's game."

 

 Do your best to win win today's game while at the same time keeping the long season in mind and the future of the team in mind. That is the riddle of professional sports especially baseball with its 162 games.

The fact is that even the possibility of sneaking into the Central and facing the Yankees in the wc game again is too good to pass up. As long as the Twins can keep winning at home and stay within striking distance, please don't quit on this season. Sept. schedule looks exciting with 3 at Houston, 3 at home against Yankees, 3 at A's and rest against White Sox, Rangers, Tigers, and Royals. Finish the season with 7 Target games against Tigers and White Sox. Could be a lot of fun.

 

If the Twins sneak their way to the top of the Central, they won't play the WC game. They'd play in the ALDS. There's realistically a better reason to go for it this year than there was last year. You stand a chance to win 5 games vs. 1

[gocgo]

 

If the Twins sneak their way to the top of the Central, they won't play the WC game. They'd play in the ALDS. There's realistically a better reason to go for it this year than there was last year. You stand a chance to win 5 games vs. 1

You think we have a better chance of winning a 5 game series against a superior team rather than winning a single game against a superior team?

[jkcarew]

 

That 2006 team was full of all-stars but it was also full of below replacement level players. Very top heavy. This Twins rotation doesn't have Santana but it has a much better 1-6 that can keep the Twins in games. The lineup has underperformed but that's what you want when making big comebacks - a team that should play better than it has.

The 2006 team had 9 players with a 2.5 WAR or better.  This team is on pace to have 4...with an outside chance at 6.  They don't compare whatsoever...especially if we consider how the current Twins 25-man roster is constructed.

 

True, they don't have to be that good if Cleveland is really bad in the second half.  I'm fine with the optimism.  Anything's possible.

 

But sell the free agents (doesn't matter that you will only get 'small' returns).  And play the young guys.

[Darius]

Worst case scenario:

 

The Twins go on a run and pull within 4-5 games. They decide to stand pat at the deadline, maybe even add a few minor pieces. They promptly fall back off the cliff shortly after the deadline.

 

No prospects returned for expiring contracts. Waiver deals don't work, or they get much less than they could have during the frenzy of the non-waiver deadline. No MLB playing time for current prospects (Gordon, etc).

[ThejacKmp]

 

You think we have a better chance of winning a 5 game series against a superior team rather than winning a single game against a superior team?

 

I think the risk/reward is higher. Scratch that. I know it. A 5 game series gives you at least three playoff games, one at home. The second wild card gives you one away game. Even if you win the one game, you then have a 5 game series where you've already used your best pitcher.

 

The reward for making a run this year is much higher than last year, when the Twins were chasing the second wild card and not the division.

[ThejacKmp]

 

The 2006 team had 9 players with a 2.5 WAR or better.  This team is on pace to have 4...with an outside chance at 6.  They don't compare whatsoever...especially if we consider how the current Twins 25-man roster is constructed.

 

True, they don't have to be that good if Cleveland is really bad in the second half.  I'm fine with the optimism.  Anything's possible.

 

But sell the free agents (doesn't matter that you will only get 'small' returns).  And play the young guys.

 

The Twins should be making much more targeted decision than “Sell everyone and bring up the young uns”. Especially because bringing up the young uns generally means giving up.

 

• Gordon is having trouble in AAA (he’s young and a testament to why we don’t promote guys after a month) and doesn’t look like he needs anything more than a September call-up. Trading Dozier now means you’re getting almost nothing, even if you pick up the salary. If he booms down the stretch, you can give him a QO and get a draft pick when he signs. Much more upside to hanging onto Dozier.
• Wade is also struggling in AAA a bit and doesn’t really fit this team. Robbie Grossman has little trade value but is a nice piece for the end of an MLB bench. Wade would mean having four LH outfielders and feels redundant. I’d like to see him finish strong in AAA, get a September cup of coffee, and compete with Cave for that 4th OF spot next year.
• Gonsalves and Romero could pitch in the majors but they’ve both struggled in AAA (or the majors) a bit and could use some time in AAA to iron things out. And even if they put it together, it’s also not like the Twins 5th rotation spot is set since Slegers is a #5 starter if all goes well. Trading Lance Lynn feels like giving up and I’m not sure you’d even get all that much for him. He’s definitely a guy you should wait til right before the deadline (both to see if the team storms back and to let him build more distance between his early season struggles) and then decide whether or not to move.
• • The bullpen is a place the Twins should be making some targeted sells. I’d shop Rodney, Reed, and Duke but I wouldn’t be taking “whatever the best offer is” and I wouldn’t sell all three. The Twins have some replacement arms coming up that would be interesting to try (and in the case of Rodney and Reed might not be much worse) but I don’t want to gut the pen. The Twins need to get the right thing back and balance getting something back vs. staying strong for another three to seven weeks.
• • Escobar is the interesting one. He’s a guy who profiles to get you something back (Nunez got you Mejia for example and his season was nowhere near Escobar). At the same time, with Dozier likely out after this season and Gordon/Sano scuffling in the minors, resigning Escobar (a team leader who speaks Spanish) seems like a good idea. You’re much more likely to sign him if you don’t trade him away. I’m not against trading Escobar but I’m looking for the right deal because then I have to go overpay in free agency. And I’m not sure you get that deal – there’s a ton of middle and corner infielders available this year so it’s a buyers’ market. I’d hold onto Escobar, especially since he’s a team leader. I might even start feeling him out about a contract extension, pointing out the glut of infielders hitting the market next year and the fact that he likes the TC.

 

I guess overall, I don’t see why the Twins should be selling unless they can swap a bullpen arm for something. They don’t have a strong chance to win the division but they have an outside shot. Most of their free agents aren’t worth much and those that have some value are guys that you may want to keep long-term (Escobar) or guys where the return might not be worth clearly waving the white flag (Lynn). None of the youth is demanding playing time that isn’t readily available.

 

Shop some pieces and see what happens into the deadline.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Worst case scenario:

The Twins go on a run and pull within 4-5 games. They decide to stand pat at the deadline, maybe even add a few minor pieces. They promptly fall back off the cliff shortly after the deadline.

No prospects returned for expiring contracts. Waiver deals don't work, or they get much less than they could have during the frenzy of the non-waiver deadline. No MLB playing time for current prospects (Gordon, etc).

 

how is that a worst-case scenario? Their pieces aren't worth anything that profiles to make a difference long-term. Escobar is the best bet and he's one of a dozen infielders on the market. Lynn has some value at the back of a rotation but after that, slim pickings.

 

Going on a run to 4-5 games would give young guys a shot at some meaningful games and give the season a high note and renewed optimism for next year. And the cost is minimal - iffy prospects and a playing time for guys who are struggling in AAA (except Romero, who has PT for Slegers whenever).

[Number3]

"If the Twins sneak their way to the top of the Central, they won't play the WC game. They'd play in the ALDS. There's realistically a better reason to go for it this year than there was last year. You stand a chance to win 5 games vs. 1"

 

Thanks for the correction. I dated myself again. I also admit that I too easily flip flop from "fire 'em all" to "go for it". All a fan can to is observe and react and, to me, sweeping Baltimore is no small feat as someone who used to go to Memorial Stadium and watch the Killebrew/Oliva Twins lose to the Orioles. I have always said that the Twins are basically in the same boat as the great majority of teams. So still rooting for them to go after every game and stay competitive is not really flip flopping.

[Loosey]

 

Amazing what a visit from by far the 2 worst teams in baseball can do for restoring the faith.

And the team you are chasing goes on a losing streak...

[Mike Sixel]

I have very strong doubts about this team......but I won't criticize the FO for waiting a few more days before deciding on a path.....

[Loosey]

This is my favorite thread in a while.  Last week everyone was ready to unload the whole roster, blow it up, fire Molly, fire the front office and force Pohlad to the sell the team.  

 

But know after winning 5 in a row against two awful teams we all think they have a shot now.  Which in theory they do.  In all honesty, I think what happens through this weekend will be telling of what they do.  The Twins have KC and TB.  The Indians have Cincinnati then 4 against the Yankees.  

 

If Cleveland goes 2-4 and the Twins go 5-1 that is big swing at the All Star Break.  

 

That essentially puts the Twins 5 back.  

[Platoon]

False hope, or unfalse hope is the worst thing one could have for this bunch. But let's say you have it. Hope we squeak by Cleveland? To play real baseball teams? Maybe the Yankess? Until this orginisation is convinced that they truly need a new look in the roster, both 25 and 40 man, and some new field staff, we will remain looking forward to playing the dregs of the league for false hope. Someone made a prediction about an 11-0 finish before the ASG and getting to about 5 behind Cleveland. That would be a disaster to this orginisation equivalent to May of 2015.

[Platoon]

I have very strong doubts about this team......but I won't criticize the FO for waiting a few more days before deciding on a path.....

I wouldn't move now either, despite my skepticism. Things need to settle for OTHER teams Nor would I let a faux playoff run change my mind about the viability of this roster as a legitimate contender. Fool me once shame on you fool me twice, shame on (whoever fell for it)

[Brock Beauchamp]

If the Twins sell at the deadline, answer this question:

 

Exactly what do you expect they can get for any player who can't/won't be returning for 2019?

 

(the correct answer is "almost nothing")

 

So do you give up and get a pathetic return on expiring contracts or just play out the season and see what happens?

 

I'd rather see them ride it out considering what the return would be either way.

 

The one caveat being that an expiring contract is blocking a player you want to see in MLB through August and September.

[gocgo]

 

I think the risk/reward is higher. Scratch that. I know it. A 5 game series gives you at least three playoff games, one at home. The second wild card gives you one away game. Even if you win the one game, you then have a 5 game series where you've already used your best pitcher.

 

The reward for making a run this year is much higher than last year, when the Twins were chasing the second wild card and not the division.

OK, I can buy that reasoning.

[Brandon]

If we go 5-1 or 4-2 into the allstar break and gain a game or two on Cleveland, we should have some positive reinforcements/ developments on the way. I was ready to call it a season but soon I suspect we will have Buxton back

Sano in August if we keep winning and he drops 15 and refines his bat.

Santana

Pineda should be ready for a rehab stint soon.

If Rooker keeps hitting could he be up sooner than later?

Romero should be back soon as several relievers.

 

Polanco is already back

Mauer is showing signs of breaking his slump.

Dozier has started hitting with more power....remember he had a hr taken away from him the other day in an over the fence grab

 

Now if we can do something about C and DH were in business.

[jkcarew]

 

If the Twins sell at the deadline, answer this question:

 

Exactly what do you expect they can get for any player who can't/won't be returning for 2019?

 

(the correct answer is "almost nothing")

 

So do you give up and get a pathetic return on expiring contracts or just play out the season and see what happens?

 

I'd rather see them ride it out considering what the return would be either way.

 

The one caveat being that an expiring contract is blocking a player you want to see in MLB through August and September.

This is the best and only argument for not selling.  Until the last paragraph.  I would hope the Twins have at least one player (or at least think they do) that would require a sell based on the last paragraph.

 

Personally, I like next-to-nothing better than nothing for the expiring contracts, as nothing about this team justifies passing on anything, IMO. 

[KirbyDome89]

 

If the Twins sell at the deadline, answer this question:

 

Exactly what do you expect they can get for any player who can't/won't be returning for 2019?

 

(the correct answer is "almost nothing")

 

So do you give up and get a pathetic return on expiring contracts or just play out the season and see what happens?

 

I'd rather see them ride it out considering what the return would be either way.

 

The one caveat being that an expiring contract is blocking a player you want to see in MLB through August and September.

The return won't be more than lottery tickets, but why at least take that chance? They honestly have nothing to lose by moving off guys on short term deals.

 

There are plenty of relievers who frankly should be getting innings so I don't see a problem with trying to move Rodney or Duke. Belisle never should've been on the roster, so there's another spot. 

 

Is there really any point in continuing to feed ABs to Morrison or even Grossman? Buxton will be back up at some point and while I'm not a huge believer in Cave, he could certainly slide into the DH spot at that time. I'd take a bag of balls for Lynn and let Gonsalves, Romero, Mejia, and Slegers work through the rotation.