Would You Trade Eduardo Escobar?

[Major League Ready]

 

If you can get a top 75 prospect for him - unlikely, I know - you do that.

 

If not, ride it out and QO the guy.

The only way the QO strategy makes any sense is if he keeps up the 900 OPS pace because another team would have to believe he is going to play much closer to that level than his career numbers if they are going to give up a draft pick and pay enough to lure him away from a QO. The last 2 weeks his OPS is 664 and and Wrc+ is 69 with a 209 BA. If he plays to his careers number for the remainder of the year, he could be signed for 2 years at very close to the QO or 3/24. 

 

His leadership does has value but people are giving far too much weight to a 2 month hot streak. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Last offseason proved that we are in a falling market. I don't think we get the return we got with Nunez. And Mejia has not helped the club much really. Nunez has been an All Star and a starter. I think you are discounting the known factor versus unknown prospect. EE is worth a lot more than a prospect, but for a 3 month rental, I doubt we get anything close to even Mejia.

The Twins still have control of Mejia for 4 years, and is already an effective 4th/5th starter. The need for the rotation was real and is still there as Bert is coming up.

 

Nunez was sign on a free agent deal, which was no guarantee he was coming back to the Twins. That was a very good trade and one that Falvine should be looking to replicate if possible with every expiring contract on the team.

[Kelly Vance]

 

The Twins still have control of Mejia for 4 years, and is already an effective 4th/5th starter. The need for the rotation was real and is still there as Bert is coming up.

Nunez was sign on a free agent deal, which was no guarantee he was coming back to the Twins. That was a very good trade and one that Falvine should be looking to replicate if possible with every expiring contract on the te

OK, so you like Mejia. But a quality 4/5 starter does not compute. He is POTENTIALLY a starter. He gets a spot start today. I hope he does well. But he needs to earn a spot and the label that you gave him.  I still consider him a minor leaguer on a call up, not a proven starter.  But I also hope I am wrong. 

[Major League Ready]

 

OK, so you like Mejia. But a quality 4/5 starter does not compute. He is POTENTIALLY a starter. He gets a spot start today. I hope he does well. But he needs to earn a spot and the label that you gave him.  I still consider him a minor leaguer on a call up, not a proven starter.  But I also hope I am wrong. 

He was a 1 WAR player in 98 IP and 21 appearances. Hopefully he has improved his control and whatever else they sent him down to work on. Seem pretty reasonable to believe he will be a 2 WAR SP and I think there is some additional upside. He was already in AAA when they traded for him. We have enough depth that I would rather they trade fort a A+ SP with more ceiling if possible.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

He was a 1 WAR player in 98 IP and 21 appearances. Hopefully he has improved his control and whatever else they sent him down to work on. Seem pretty reasonable to believe he will be a 2 WAR SP and I think there is some additional upside. He was already in AAA when they traded for him. We have enough depth that I would rather they trade fort a A+ SP with more ceiling if possible.

Twins are bad and Rochester is in shambles. They need AAA depth something awful, especially corner infield, and no such thing as too much pitching

[gman]

 

under control....as if that wasn't obvious. I'm not dealing Buxton, Sano, Kepler, Rosario....not unless it is something amazing. Nor Berrios or Romero.

 

sorry if somehow I wasn't clear.....

No it wasn't clear. Also, I was referring to anyone on current 25 man roster. As if that wasn't obvious.

[howeda7]

They're already going to trade Dozier, Lynn and Duke for sure and quite possibly Rodney. Yes, we need to get some depth, but we will be. I see zero reason not to be pushing hard for an extension right now. Also, can someone explain to me how the QO would be $17 million or whatever I've seen here? That seems way high. 

[beckmt]

 

They're already going to trade Dozier, Lynn and Duke for sure and quite possibly Rodney. Yes, we need to get some depth, but we will be. I see zero reason not to be pushing hard for an extension right now. Also, can someone explain to me how the QO would be $17 million or whatever I've seen here? That seems way high. 

I have seen the QO number around $18 million.  I would not want to be without Escobar next year, given the current state of the Twins.  Just depends on what he wants.  I think 3/$30 - $33 is in the park.  More if you believe his current stats are the new norm.  

I was stated today on the Twins broadcast that maybe Escobar is still feeling the effects of the Pprcello hit by pitch.  Give it a couple of more weeks to work out.

[Riverbrian]

 

They're already going to trade Dozier, Lynn and Duke for sure and quite possibly Rodney. Yes, we need to get some depth, but we will be. I see zero reason not to be pushing hard for an extension right now. Also, can someone explain to me how the QO would be $17 million or whatever I've seen here? That seems way high. 

 

The QO is the mean salary of the top 125 players.

 

It was 17.4M last year.

17.2M the year before that. 

 

Next year hasn't been announced yet. 

[Major League Ready]

 

Twins are bad and Rochester is in shambles. They need AAA depth something awful, especially corner infield, and no such thing as too much pitching

Normally, I would agree that you can’t have too much pitching. However, next year they have Berrios / Gibson / Odorizzi and in all likelihood Romero set. That leaves Pineda, May, Gosalves as the best candidates for the 5th spot. That still leaves Slegers,  Littell and couple other like Stewart and Thorpe for depth. Graterol won’t be here next year but we can call him depth in the system.

We should also keep in mind we have $60M or so coming off the books and a FA SP is in the cards. Unless we actually land Machado (5% chance) I would think we sign a starter unless two of Romero / Gonsalves / Mejia shine the 2nd half.

 

Wouldn’t it make more sense to take a shot at a high upside guy over a depth guy at this point? The top teams are so far ahead of us that another Mejia will not move the needle.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Normally, I would agree that you can’t have too much pitching. However, next year they have Berrios / Gibson / Odorizzi and in all likelihood Romero set. That leaves Pineda, May, Gosalves as the best candidates for the 5th spot. That still leaves Slegers, Littell and couple other like Stewart and Thorpe for depth. Graterol won’t be here next year but we can call him depth in the system.

We should also keep in mind we have $60M or so coming off the books and a FA SP is in the cards. Unless we actually land Machado (5% chance) I would think we sign a starter unless two of Romero / Gonsalves / Mejia shine the 2nd half.

 

Wouldn’t it make more sense to take a shot at a high upside guy over a depth guy at this point? The top teams are so far ahead of us that another Mejia will not move the needle.

I wouldn’t have a problem with a high upside pitcher, but close to major league ready is my preference. There’s still health uncertainty with May and Pineda. Gonsalves and Littell could and probably should bolster the bullpen. Romero looks legit, but it’s real small sample. We had May and Santana pegged as depth this season, and may not see them in Twins uniforms this year.

 

What ever can go wrong, will go wrong. If it doesn’t, you’ve got bullpen help or trade pieces.

[beckmt]

Would trade Escobar for the right help.  Either a decent close to major league ready pitcher or some good prospect lottery tickets in A ball.  And then try and resign him after the season.

[Han Joelo]

Berardino wrote a great article about Escobar.  I highly recommend the read; details how Ozzie Guillen convinced Kenny Williams to keep him around, basically to save his life--he comes from a tough part of Venezuela, and has had 4 family members murdered.

 

Ozzie sums up by saying he'll likely get traded, but that he should re-sign with Twins anyway, even for less money, given the faith and trust the organization has given him, and the way he responded.  And, unspoken, I think Ozzie would jump at the chance to manage an Ed lead team.

[mngopherguy]

I don't want to trade him, but if you can't get him for 3/33 you have to trade him and possibly get him back in the off season.  I want someone in AA, that's when you know if a guy really has a chance or not.

[Monkeypaws]

If I ran an organization, I would reward good players with market-level contracts.

 

I would weed out deadwood.

 

I would not reward success with trades. You'll never have a cohesive team if you ship out good players like potato chips.

 

Trade at deadline is a pure loser mentality. Even if they are going to be free agents. You make an honest effort to keep such players.

[mngopherguy]

 

If I ran an organization, I would reward good players with market-level contracts.

 

I would weed out deadwood.

 

I would not reward success with trades. You'll never have a cohesive team if you ship out good players like potato chips.

 

Trade at deadline is a pure loser mentality. Even if they are going to be free agents. You make an honest effort to keep such players.

 

I understand your points, what if he doesn't take a "market level" contract? Then you need to trade him for something at the deadline.  There has to be some AA catcher out there who would be better than Wilson offensively or Garver defensively they could get. 

 

[jorgenswest]

If I ran an organization, I would reward good players with market-level contracts.

 

I would weed out deadwood.

 

I would not reward success with trades. You'll never have a cohesive team if you ship out good players like potato chips.

 

Trade at deadline is a pure loser mentality. Even if they are going to be free agents. You make an honest effort to keep such players.

So difficult though.

 

Did they reward Phil Hughes with a market level extension? Joe Mauer? Ryan Doumit? Jared Burton? How do you know if your good player of 2018 is going to be the deadwood of 2019 or 2020?

 

They need to pay based on projected future performance rather than a reward for past performance. We need a front office that is among the best at projecting forward.

[Mike Sixel]

If I ran an organization, I would reward good players with market-level contracts.

 

I would weed out deadwood.

 

I would not reward success with trades. You'll never have a cohesive team if you ship out good players like potato chips.

 

Trade at deadline is a pure loser mentality. Even if they are going to be free agents. You make an honest effort to keep such players.

Keeping Perkins did what?

[Bob Sacamento]

Jesus, after reading a couple of pages I'm just shocked at some of the response.  If Escobar is still a Twin by August 1st then the front office royally screwed up just saying.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I wouldn't call Escobar a "building block" as the original poster posed the question, but he is definitely the type of guy you want to have for continuity and because he can play. Someone drew a comparison to Zobrist -- I thought that wasn't too far off despite the WAR disparity at the age 29 season. Escobar is the type of guy who would fit in with the Cubs and their philosophy of positional flexibility. I think he's the one vet who needs to stay. Unless you are wowed by an offer. And teams have been sniffing around about Esco for years, so he's obviously valuable.

[Major League Ready]

 

I wouldn’t have a problem with a high upside pitcher, but close to major league ready is my preference. There’s still health uncertainty with May and Pineda. Gonsalves and Littell could and probably should bolster the bullpen. Romero looks legit, but it’s real small sample. We had May and Santana pegged as depth this season, and may not see them in Twins uniforms this year.

What ever can go wrong, will go wrong. If it doesn’t, you’ve got bullpen help or trade pieces.

 

I am right with ya. Closer is always better. My thought was that we don't have a trade chip that will net a high ceiling AA prospect. EE might if he stayed hot until the deadline but he has been off the last 50 or so ABs. He would need to heat up again. Lynn was looking good of late until today. Let's hope he is great in his next 5 starts and gets traded. I would think Dozier would have to go nuts for the next month to bring that kind of prospect.  

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Jesus, after reading a couple of pages I'm just shocked at some of the response.  If Escobar is still a Twin by August 1st then the front office royally screwed up just saying.

I wouldn't say they necessarily screwed up -- with Escobar's modest history, there may not be a great market for him. No guarantee they could flip him for another Mejia. If the best offer is some more nondescript minor league relievers, maybe the best move is to keep him and hope he re-signs on a short-term cheap deal for our 2019 team which will probably need infield help. (To say nothing of the 2018 benefits if we're still hanging around the fringes on contention at the deadline -- we still have 10 head-to-head games with Cleveland after July 29.)

[Tomj14]

 

I am right with ya. Closer is always better. My thought was that we don't have a trade chip that will net a high ceiling AA prospect. EE might if he stayed hot until the deadline but he has been off the last 50 or so ABs. He would need to heat up again. Lynn was looking good of late until today. Let's hope he is great in his next 5 starts and gets traded. I would think Dozier would have to go nuts for the next month to bring that kind of prospect.  

Maybe we could a prospect or two to sweeten the deal?

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Maybe we could a prospect or two to sweeten the deal?

 

That's pretty rare in deadline trades. If the guy isn't viewed as a difference maker, you won't be getting an elite prospect back, and teams are not likely to give up elite talent when a quality prospect is tossed back there way. They'd rather just trade a quality guy and keep the elite guy.

[mngopherguy]

 

Jesus, after reading a couple of pages I'm just shocked at some of the response.  If Escobar is still a Twin by August 1st then the front office royally screwed up just saying.

 

So trade him for the sake of trading him?  Even if all they get is a lottery pick?

[The Wise One]

If you view the season as sunk then you trade Escobar. The season is not sunk yet, but close. Escobar his hitting well enough to warrant more than a lottery pick. His name recognition might not be good enough to get more than a prospect ranked in a system's 5-10 range.   Of course a wily GM would know what assets have been undervalued in a system and manage to steal a couple.