Twins make offer for Chris Archer

[jimmer]

Over the last four seasons, and while pitching against usually extremely tough offenses in the AL East, Archer ranks 5th for starters in the AL in fWAR.

 

Over the last THREE seasons, he ranks 3RD in the AL in fWAR. 3RD.

 

He has blemishes but you have to look hard. I think some people's idea of Ace might be a biiiit too high.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

He has blemishes but you have to look hard. I think some people's idea of Ace might be a biiiit too high.

Clayton Kershaw or GTFO.

[Mike Sixel]

Clayton Kershaw or GTFO.

Too injured. Seriously.

[FormerMinnasotan]

Over the last four seasons, and while pitching against usually extremely tough offenses in the AL East, Archer ranks 5th for starters in the AL in fWAR.

 

Over the last THREE seasons, he ranks 3RD in the AL in fWAR. 3RD.

 

He has blemishes but you have to look hard. I think some people's idea of Ace might be a biiiit too high.

I agree. At first I felt hesitant to want to do this, but Archer is a pretty good pitcher and is younger than Darvish. As much as I like Fernando Romero I think trading him, Max Kepler, Felix Jorge, and Tyler Wells (one of our better lower level prospects) could get us Archer. We have to get an impact arm and the Twins don’t seem too interested in the big 3 pitching free agents, so if they can pry Archer away even if it costs us a top pitching prospect (Romero), and a promising outfielder (Kepler) I believe we have no choice but to do it. Otherwise our best shot would be pitchers no one really wants (Tillman, Garcia, etc.).

[Monkeypaws]

Archer is but 2 years younger than Darvish, and has yet to have his arm explode.

 

Gutting the farm system for a guy who had an ERA over 4 the last 2 seasons.

 

Gimme Lynn or Cobb over that.

[Brandon]

We have too many prospects to gut the system for one player. We can trade five propects of variius degrees and still have a good system.

[jimmer]

ERA....

[twinsfanstreif]

I agree. At first I felt hesitant to want to do this, but Archer is a pretty good pitcher and is younger than Darvish. As much as I like Fernando Romero I think trading him, Max Kepler, Felix Jorge, and Tyler Wells (one of our better lower level prospects) could get us Archer. We have to get an impact arm and the Twins don’t seem too interested in the big 3 pitching free agents, so if they can pry Archer away even if it costs us a top pitching prospect (Romero), and a promising outfielder (Kepler) I believe we have no choice but to do it. Otherwise our best shot would be pitchers no one really wants (Tillman, Garcia, etc.).

I'd be ok with your offer, it's the combo of Kepler, Romero, AND Gordon that makes me hesitant to endorse it, that trade could backfire on us big time as those are not high rated lower level prospects, all three of those guys could contribute this year or next and are all highly rated, that is way different than someone like Javier or Lewis who could both stall out in the lower levels, there is much more risk involved and that should be a factor. Think of the Santana trade for us, while it is a little different because Santana was requiring a large contract, we really only got one (kind of) MLB ready guy in Gomez who was rushed and realistically a few years away, one top prospect who was 18, and a couple of fillers.

[jimmer]

 

I'd be ok with your offer, it's the combo of Kepler, Romero, AND Gordon that makes me hesitant to endorse it, that trade could backfire on us big time as those are not high rated lower level prospects, all three of those guys could contribute this year or next and are all highly rated, that is way different than someone like Javier or Lewis who could both stall out in the lower levels, there is much more risk involved and that should be a factor. Think of the Santana trade for us, while it is a little different because Santana was requiring a large contract, we really only got one (kind of) MLB ready guy in Gomez who was rushed and realistically a few years away, one top prospect who was 18, and a couple of fillers.

People going after Santana knew he wasn't going to play for the Twins and he was due a huge contract that had to be done before the trade was even done and way before 4 seasons of control.  Twins had zero leverage.

 

I wouldn't bat an eye losing Kepler Gordon and Romero for Archer.

[Oxtung]

 

Gordon is in the top fifty prospects for some.... And kiriloff in the to 100....

 

I'm assuming you're objecting to the word "quality" to describe Gordon and Kiriloff which is valid.  It was a poor use of descriptive language. My point was that none of those guys are elite and that is the coin of the realm with regards to trading for a premiere player.

[Dr. Evil]

I like Granite. No issues for me with trading Kepler.

[jorgenswest]

Based on the Quintana trade, someone will offer a prospect at least as promising as Lewis. Trading for a pitcher is going to hurt. Lewis has to be on the table.

[TheLeviathan]

It probably doesn't help that all the guys we're talking about - Kepler, Gordon, Romero - are not at the height of value.  This is probably as low as Gordon has been.

 

It's just not ideal.  But I'd be more willing to venture down this sort of non-ideal path if I thought it really ticked the club forward.  I'm not convinced it does.

[AZTwin]

 

It probably doesn't help that all the guys we're talking about - Kepler, Gordon, Romero - are not at the height of value.  This is probably as low as Gordon has been.

 

It's just not ideal.  But I'd be more willing to venture down this sort of non-ideal path if I thought it really ticked the club forward.  I'm not convinced it does.

 

Let's not forget that recently Kepler was a top 30 prospect.  Gordon is a top 50 prospect.   Romero is top 75 prospect and Jorge has nice potential.  It would be a pretty good haul  

[mudcat14]

Tampa recently traded the face of their franchise plus ca$h, for Span & 3 prospects (only one of whom cracked the Rays Top 30 list,) in order to save about $60 million.  Are we seriously saying they'd balk at an offer for Archer and Span that included Kepler and two of our Top 30 not named Lewis, Gonsalves or Gaterol, plus perhaps 1-2 lesser rated prospects, in order to clear the $48 million committed to those two?  I'd probably cross Rooker & Enlow off the list too and still be confident a deal could be worked out. 

 

Don't know who said it, but Money can be a pretty powerful motivational tool. Right now, the Twins have it and the Rays want it.  Span could be a solid bridge in RF until I suppose Wade or Rooker are ready.  He might be a good influence on the young regulars too.    

[Mr. Brooks]

Tampa recently traded the face of their franchise plus ca$h, for Span & 3 prospects (only one of whom cracked the Rays Top 30 list,) in order to save about $60 million. Are we seriously saying they'd balk at an offer for Archer and Span that included Kepler and two of our Top 30 not named Lewis, Gonsalves or Gaterol, plus perhaps 1-2 lesser rated prospects, in order to clear the $48 million committed to those two? I'd probably cross Rooker & Enlow off the list too and still be confident a deal could be worked out.

 

Don't know who said it, but Money can be a pretty powerful motivational tool. Right now, the Twins have it and the Rays want it. Span could be a solid bridge in RF until I suppose Wade or Rooker are ready. He might be a good influence on the young regulars too.

The difference is that probably upwards of 15 teams would have high interest in attaining Archer. So, they aren't going to have to settle for a lesser haul, just to clear salary.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Let's not forget that recently Kepler was a top 30 prospect.  Gordon is a top 50 prospect.   Romero is top 75 prospect and Jorge has nice potential.  It would be a pretty good haul  

 

Well, sure, but that's not where they are right now.  Gordon had a rough end to last year and he's all over the place on prospect lists.  Romero had a lot of hype last year, but it didn't translate into a dramatic rise up the boards either.  

 

I'm not dismissing any of their value going forward, I'm just saying right now is a sub-optimal time to be shopping this package.  

[mudcat14]

 

The difference is that probably upwards of 15 teams would have high interest in attaining Archer. So, they aren't going to have to settle for a lesser haul, just to clear salary.

 

Agreed, we are be bidding against other teams.  But I don't think there are 15 that can offer a comp to Kepler + two Top 30 Organizational prospects and a willingness to take Span off the books as well.  Truth is, none of us know if the Twins are even in a group willing to offer that.  I would.  But that's just me.

[Rosterman]

Will Romero or Jorge crack the Twins rotation, especially if they add, say, Archer? Both on the 40-man taking up places. Nick Gordon.....what is his worth? Did he make Baseball America's Top 100? Is he that far ahead of Lewis, Javier or.....Palacios?

 

Interesting. Bring back Carlos Gomez? $33 million for four years control is a decent deal!

[Mike Sixel]

Archer is but 2 years younger than Darvish, and has yet to have his arm explode.

 

Gutting the farm system for a guy who had an ERA over 4 the last 2 seasons.

 

Gimme Lynn or Cobb over that.

Gutting? That seems hyperbolic....

[mudcat14]

If... Kepler went to Tampa in some kind of Archer deal, do we engage the Brewers about Domingo Santana as a replacement?  Odd man out in Milwaukee.  A 25-year old Dominican RH batter with big power but massive K's. 

 

Discuss.  

[Mike Sixel]

If... Kepler went to Tampa in some kind of Archer deal, do we engage the Brewers about Domingo Santana as a replacement? Odd man out in Milwaukee. A 25-year old Dominican RH batter with big power but massive K's.

 

Discuss.

just sign a free agent, and wait for Wade, Lewis, Rooker,et.al.... Don't trade for an OF. They have plenty of money, and there are free agents, why not sign a guy and keep the prospects?

[darin617]

 

If... Kepler went to Tampa in some kind of Archer deal, do we engage the Brewers about Domingo Santana as a replacement?  Odd man out in Milwaukee.  A 25-year old Dominican RH batter with big power but massive K's. 

 

Discuss.  

I would rather sign a free agent than trade more prospects. Sign Melky Cabrea to a 1 year deal & hope either Granite or possibly Wade will be able to take over full time in 2019.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Tampa recently traded the face of their franchise plus ca$h, for Span & 3 prospects (only one of whom cracked the Rays Top 30 list,) in order to save about $60 million.

They traded Longoria because he was about to get no-trade rights in April. They have no such urgency to move Archer.

 

Heck, if an outfielder gets injured in spring training, a team may take a good portion of Span's salary for nothing. No need to water-down a potential Archer return just to move Span right now.

[ChrisKnutson]

I really like Kepler's potential as an all around player, so I instead of possibly sacrificing multiple future contributors the Twins maybe should look into signing Julio Teheran of the Braves and free agent Andrew Cashner.

 

Also, I'm pretty sure there are plenty of other teams out there willing to trade starting pitchers as controllable as Archer, just not as talented/expensive. But who else?

[Mike Sixel]

I really like Kepler's potential as an all around player, so I instead of possibly sacrificing multiple future contributors the Twins maybe should look into signing Julio Teheran of the Braves and free agent Andrew Cashner.

 

Also, I'm pretty sure there are plenty of other teams out there willing to trade starting pitchers as controllable as Archer, just not as talented/expensive. But who else?

Why trade for bad players? Not sure I understand.

[Monkeypaws]

 

Gutting? That seems hyperbolic....

Well, what is Tampa bay gonna take but the cream?

 

Nobody has the Twins at the top of their farm system rankings. 

 

Hey, haven't I read you yourself advocating free agent over trade? 

[Otto von Ballpark]

Also, I'm pretty sure there are plenty of other teams out there willing to trade starting pitchers as controllable as Archer, just not as talented/expensive. But who else?

Not really. I mean, you want to find another team's version of Mejia? They will be cheaper than Archer of course but they won't really be cheap -- what motivation would their team have to sell them cheaply? Put yourself in their position, why would the Twins trade Mejia for cheap now?

[Oxtung]

 

Based on the Quintana trade, someone will offer a prospect at least as promising as Lewis. Trading for a pitcher is going to hurt. Lewis has to be on the table.

How much value does a guy in rookie ball really have? Sure, he was the #1 overall pick but he is raw and 4 years away. Does anyone know any trades where the main piece was a player in rookie ball?

[ChrisKnutson]

I sorta follow statcast, velocity, and pitches when it comes to pitching and 5 younger guys stood out to me as relatively affordable trade targets with talent similar to Chris Archer (also including Julio Teheran).

 

Luis Castillo (Reds), Luis Gohara (Braves), Jose Urena (Marlins), Luis Cessa, (Yankees), and Dinelson Lamet (Padres).

 

To me personally, Lament especially stood out, something was different about him when he faced of against Erv and the Twins lineup (missed a lot of bats). For Lament, probably wouldn't have to give up Kepler, since the San Diego Padres badly need to replenish their system.