2017 Staff Compared to 2018

[Mr. Brooks]

We need to get over it. Darvish didn't want to come here for reasons we don't know. Yes, the Cubs gave him more $$$ and more years. Personally, I am glad the Twins didn't go that far out with big dollars to a good pitcher...but not a real ACE. There were other reasons, perhaps including the lack of a Japanese community in Minneapolis.

 

Would Darvish be better than whomever we have as our #5. Maybe...Probably. But who knows, the decline we saw in the World Series may accelerate this year. Or he may go on the DL next month and miss half the year. Personally, I am glad we didn't restrict future contracts to our young kids by giving him a sixth of the maximum budget we can expect...for the next 6 years.

 

As for performance by Duffey or anyone else, we'll know how they are doing in a couple months. May be Duffey, hell, Jorge may earn the 5th starter slot. Let's give all these young guys who were breaking in last year a chance to give'em hell this year. I love this team and I will still love them if we don't sign another player.

Darvish MIGHT be one of our 5 best starters? Might?

Ok. I think you might be too biased to even make your argument honestly.

[Otto von Ballpark]

08/17/2017Lower Back Tightness10-Day Disabled List06/09/2016Right Shoulder Discomfort15-Day Disabled List03/25/2016Recovery From Right Elbow Surgery15-Day Disabled List03/01/2016Recovery From Right Elbow SurgeryDay-To-Day04/05/2015Right Elbow Surgery - Out For Season60-Day Disabled List03/07/2015Right Elbow Surgery - Out For SeasonDay-To-Day

 

Darvich also missed numerous starts while not going on the DL. He has averaged 166 innings in his 5 years of pitching.

Almost all of those missed starts are related to the same surgery, though. He first went down with elbow problems in late 2014, and they tried rest and rehab. Didn't work, and he had TJ surgery in March 2015. Standard recovery time meant he started his 2016 season a few months late. That accounts for virtually all of his missed starts.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Sometimes Plan A ends up being a disaster while Plan B and C work out much better. Plan A is usually spot on when written on paper but results dont follow.

Again, time will tell.

Of course, in this case, Plan A (Darvish) and most Plan B's and C's (1 year deals or internal options) aren't mutually exclusive. The best bet is actually a combination of the plans.

[laloesch]

Everyone is forgetting Tyler Duffey.  Could he be the pleasant surprise we all have been waiting for?

 

Duffey is a reliever. The problem with him is that he's got one out pitch (curve) and an average fastball. That is a reliever. Could he be a stop gap starter? Sure, but i'd rather they roll with Slegers as another option.

[mikelink45]

 

It's not that rookie pitchers can't be good. It's that none of the guys you mention other than Romero are projected to be better than Kyle Gibson at their peaks. Romero should be conserved for innings and probably debut putt of the pen.

The only reason this stings is because the opportunity to sign a Darvish doesn't come along very often for a team with our self-imposed budget restraints.

I never thought Darvish would sign with us so I do not see it as a missed opportunity, just a waste of time. If we use Romero while Santana is out we begin to build our best for the future.  I am content with Santana/Berrios ahead of Gibson - Mejia/Gonsalves/Sleger - if we find that we cannot use Romero all year.    I am not an inning saver.  All arms give out, so I want to use them in the best situation before that inevitable need for rest/operation.

[laloesch]

I never thought Darvish would sign with us so I do not see it as a missed opportunity, just a waste of time. If we use Romero while Santana is out we begin to build our best for the future.  I am content with Santana/Berrios ahead of Gibson - Mejia/Gonsalves/Sleger - if we find that we cannot use Romero all year.    I am not an inning saver.  All arms give out, so I want to use them in the best situation before that inevitable need for rest/operation.

Go with the youth. This will likely be a lost year anyways without another starter. Come May when Santana and May are back in the mix the team will likely be too far behind to be within striking distance of Cleveland anyways. Callup Romero, Gonsalves, Littell and see who can stick.

[Mike Sixel]

Go with the youth. This will likely be a lost year anyways without another starter. Come May when Santana and May are back in the mix the team will likely be too far behind to be within striking distance of Cleveland anyways. Callup Romero, Gonsalves, Littell and see who can stick.

Another year of Buxton and Sano lost? That seems like a bad plan.

[mikelink45]

 

im not a big fan of Tillman, but he could be a fine lotto ticket on a team with a solid 1-4 rotation. The Twins don’t fit that profile do they?

The rookies won’t have a long enough leash to accumulate -2.2 WAR but yes, they will most certainly be on that pace in shorter stretches. None of them have near enough experience past high A nor have they gotten any of the short term call ups to the bigs.

Throwing them into the deep end will be painful. It can help develop for the future, but now is not the time for that as the hitting side of the game is ready now. Now is the time to acquire a veteran rotation

It would have been, but if Tillman is the best veteran than we need a different strategy and rotating our young starters through the season and getting them ready for the future is my preference. At this point I am worried that we might be expecting our hitting lineup to be more than it is ready for.  Buxton will become very productive, but the results aren't there yet.  Will he hold what he has done and then grow in the second half again?  I hope so.  Is Sano going to be given MLB punishment?  Can he stay healthy?  Kepler regressed last year - what makes us think he will regain his stroke?  Can Mauer sustain?  Zips does not think so.  Was Polanco's half year real and is he ready to stay at that level?  Who is our DH - walking Grossman or hopefully slugging Vargas?  Can Garver out hit Giminez?  Castro is not going to become a hit machine.  Where is Rosario - he is a big mystery. Lots of question marks for us to feel that this is our year.  

 

I go back to my premise - build up the young arms, keep working to improve our hitters, get that wild card this year if possible, but most important be positioning the team for a run that goes beyond a wild card or a one and done. 

[mikelink45]

 

Go with the youth. This will likely be a lost year anyways without another starter. Come May when Santana and May are back in the mix the team will likely be too far behind to be within striking distance of Cleveland anyways. Callup Romero, Gonsalves, Littell and see who can stick.

You can see some of my thoughts in another comment on this string.  I like the fact that you add May and Littlell to the mike.  Lots of arms - lets use them. 

[rdehring]

 

Darvish MIGHT be one of our 5 best starters? Might?
Ok. I think you might be too biased to even make your argument honestly.

I did not say he might be one of our 5 best starters.  I asked the question of whether he would be better than our #5 starter.  The reason is that if he were here, whomever ends up #5 would not.  I followed with the words, Maybe...Probably. 

 

Your somewhat harsh response indicates that you failed to read or understand what I was saying.  Should he get injured or continue his decline, MAYBE he wouldn't be better.  I then proceed to say, however, that he PROBABLY will be better.  To rip me a new one is clearly out of bounds had you thought about what I actually said.

[rdehring]

 

Duffey is a reliever. The problem with him is that he's got one out pitch (curve) and an average fastball. That is a reliever. Could he be a stop gap starter? Sure, but i'd rather they roll with Slegers as another option.

 

I believe several people have reported he will be given the opportunity to be a starter this spring.  And the curve I remember from two years ago was an amazing pitch, a pitch that he threw in two different ways.  If he would get back to where he was he could be that surprise we are hoping for (or need) this spring to make a difference.

[Vanimal46]

 

You can see some of my thoughts in another comment on this string.  I like the fact that you add May and Littlell to the mike.  Lots of arms - lets use them. 

 

There are lots of arms, but very few IMO are ready to be MLB caliber players at this point. Several of the names thrown out have little to no experience at the AAA level... Below are names and the career amount of innings they've thrown at their highest level of play. 

 

Littell: (85 IP at AA)

Gonsalves: (22.6 IP at AAA, 161 at AA)

Romero: (125 IP at AA)

Slegers: (15.3 IP at MLB, 148.3 IP at AAA)

Jorge: (7.6 IP at MLB, 14.3 IP at AAA)

 

That's a huge ask to count on this group to be successful MLB players. I'm afraid that's asking for a rotation of 30-50 innings of 8 ERA a piece.  

[drjim]

Given that there was one starter better than Berrios available in free agency, perhaps your expectations were set unreasonably high.

 

Is anyone confident that any free agent not named Yu Darvish will be markedly better than Berrios in 2018? I’m not.

I would be surprised if Darvish has the best season of the free agent signings.

[Mike Sixel]

I would be surprised if Darvish has the best season of the free agent signings.

One versus the field? That's kind of stacking the deck. If you are a team, signing one, which one do you pick? And if you go one year, what do you do next year?

[notoriousgod71]

 

Another year of Buxton and Sano lost? That seems like a bad plan.

They are just going down the same road they went down when we had Santana, Mauer, and Morneau.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I would be surprised if Darvish has the best season of the free agent signings.

Well, sure, but Darvish is the only guy that has a better than even chance of outperforming Berrios in 2018, in my opinion.

 

Maybe Arrieta depending how you view his 2017 and whether it was an aberration or the start of a decline.

 

But you're right that in all likelihood, someone outperforms Darvish in 2018... but good luck identifying that person today.

[ashbury]

That's true of any one individual decision.

Over the long run, Plan A should work out better than Plan B about 50% more often, using your hypothetical figures.

I think that's a fallacy.

 

Plan A for instance can involve the choice that, if you defer, you can't go back to.

 

An example would be looking at your players in April who can't be optioned, and if they don't pan out then you look at the players at AAA. Because, if you do things in the reverse order, you lose the players you can't option when you try to ask waivers - at least, the ones who are any good, leaving you only with the dregs no one else felt strongly about either.

 

Yet it could well be that the youngster stashed in AAA has the higher chance of success.

 

It could be the same logic holding here, as well. If the judgment was that Darvish was the kingpin log holding the current logjam, it costs nothing to wait and see how he plays out and whether you can get him for the money you want to spend. Of course, the risk is a miscalculation, where the Cobbs and Lynns do sign first and then you have pinned too much of your chances on Plan A. But, so far, the ordering of these top FA starters is not demonstrably amiss.

 

I don't know anything for sure, I am just challenging the notion that Plan A and Plan B are anywhere near as simple as we are making them out to be.

[Dantes929]

 

I would be surprised if Darvish has the best season of the free agent signings.

I wouldn't be surprised if he has the best season.   He is the most likely to do so but I wouldn't take him against the field.    I hope we get Cobb.  There are no guarantees there either but he also is   a year farther from his surgery and his first year back , while it doesn't wow a lot of people, wowed me.    If a year farther from his surgery allows him to get the feel for his change up (considered his best pitch) then it wouldn't be a stretch to say he could be a front line guy.    His two seasons prior to surgery were sub 3.00 ERA.   His first one post surgery was sub 4.00 in the AL East.   At  worst, it feels like we would pay free agent pricing (inflated) for a #3 and that is what we get.  At best we pay free agent pricing for a #3 and we get better than that.  

[Brandon]

If the front office is so smart, they should know that their lowball offer would be rejected. They could spent their time getting ahead if the curve with the other free agents. But they chose to put all their eggs in one basket. Not Smart. I bet we could have signed one of the other starters to a bargain deal but it looks like we are behind on getting one of them as well.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I'm not necessarily arguing against taking a shot on Tillman.

But, these signings aren't black and white.

In addition to the two options of him either bouncing back, or being terrible and easy to cut, there is also the grey area where he's bad enough to hurt you a little but, but not awful enough to give up on quickly.

more likely Tillman is bad but there aren’t any better options ready in the first half of the season (that wouldn’t hurt their development)so ride him out or find another scrap heap Bartolo type deal.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Everyone is forgetting Tyler Duffey. Could he be the pleasant surprise we all have been waiting for?

forgetting and dismissing are different things

[drjim]

Well, sure, but Darvish is the only guy that has a better than even chance of outperforming Berrios in 2018, in my opinion.

 

Maybe Arrieta depending how you view his 2017 and whether it was an aberration or the start of a decline.

 

But you're right that in all likelihood, someone outperforms Darvish in 2018... but good luck identifying that person today.

But that is kind of the point. They can regroup and throw more numbers at the rotation and take a chance they click.

 

And starters will be available at the deadline.

[laloesch]

 

Another year of Buxton and Sano lost? That seems like a bad plan.

 

Any suggestions?  Seeing as they didn't sign Darvish.

[Vanimal46]

But that is kind of the point. They can regroup and throw more numbers at the rotation and take a chance they click.

 

And starters will be available at the deadline.

That would be fine for the 5th spot in the rotation. Right now the Twins are throwing numbers from #3 on down in the rotation.

 

Oh boy, I can't wait to discuss how expensive the rental FA will be in July and the refusal to give up prospects!

[drjim]

 

That would be fine for the 5th spot in the rotation. Right now the Twins are throwing numbers from #3 on down in the rotation.

Oh boy, I can't wait to discuss how expensive the rental FA will be in July and the refusal to give up prospects!

 

I do think a willingness to trade prospects (when in competition) will be one clear way that the current front office is different than the previous regime.

[jimmer]

 

I do think a willingness to trade prospects (when in competition) will be one clear way that the current front office is different than the previous regime.

we'll see.

[Vanimal46]

I do think a willingness to trade prospects (when in competition) will be one clear way that the current front office is different than the previous regime.

I hope so. Because willingness to go after top FAs is pretty similar.

[drjim]

 

I hope so. Because willingness to go after top FAs is pretty similar.

 

That's a reality of the market/revenue/payroll situation.

[Han Joelo]

Call it dumb luck, because in some ways (I don't know ti what degree,) it was.  But the FO's Plan B or F or whatever it was regarding augmenting the relief corp is looking good.  I'm fine with criticizing the way it went down with Darvish, but I'm also waiting to see how it all shakes out.  Including the actual games being played.

 

I think my irrational hope that Romero has a Liriano-like season is only as irrational as any hope I had that Darvish (or Otenai) would be a Twin.  Probably less.  Any way, the uncertainty inherent in sports matchups, is what makes it all...sporting.

 

(Say sport/sporting to yourself a few times, and see how absurd it starts to sound.)

[Twinfan & Dad]

There are lots of arms, but very few IMO are ready to be MLB caliber players at this point. Several of the names thrown out have little to no experience at the AAA level... Below are names and the career amount of innings they've thrown at their highest level of play. 

 

Littell: (85 IP at AA)

Gonsalves: (22.6 IP at AAA, 161 at AA)

Romero: (125 IP at AA)

Slegers: (15.3 IP at MLB, 148.3 IP at AAA)

Jorge: (7.6 IP at MLB, 14.3 IP at AAA)

 

That's a huge ask to count on this group to be successful MLB players. I'm afraid that's asking for a rotation of 30-50 innings of 8 ERA a piece.

 

 

Well noted. At what point do you take the training wheels off though? There used to be a belief that if a starting pitcher had command of 3 pitches and had experience above AA, that pitcher could be viewed as getting closer to showtime. For a reliever that throws gas its 2 pitches of command. Just saying that each pitcher should be evaluated on their own merits. Sometimes young pitchers with command can make the jump quicker.