Article: The Darvish Contingency Plan

[USAFChief]

Your friendly neighborhood financial advisor would like to sell you some stock options, I bet.

Nope, don’t see the corallary, nor do I see player opt out options as very bad for teams.

 

In fact, were I a GM, I’d be inclined to encourage them, in hopes the players do well enough to exercise them.

[drjim]

Nope, don’t see the corallary, nor do I see player opt out options as very bad for teams.

 

In fact, were I a GM, I’d be inclined to encourage them, in hopes the players do well enough to exercise them.

Hard to envision how that plan could go awry.

[jud6312]

 

I can't wait for the Twins to offer Bryce Harper a 5/110 next offseason

Seems a bit risky ... unless you're talking 5/100 with a chance to get 10 more though incentives 

[Riverbrian]

 

Why would we want Odorizzi?

 

 

 

Through evolutionary processes over generations. The Minnesota Twins have evolved to the point where they depend on players like Odorizzi for Survival. 

 

Which is exactly how the World created the Dung Beetle. 

[Squirrel]

 

Why would we want Odorizzi?

 

Odorizzi. 143 IP last year. 7.97 K and 3.83 BB per 9 IP. Had a ridiculous and likely unsustainable babip of .227. Had a FIP of 5.43 and an xFIP of 5.10. Had a fWAR of 0.1. He has gotten worse in each of his last two seasons in practically every meaningful way.

Yeah ... that's truly the one I can't figure out. No. 

[cmoss84]

 

I wonder if Boston is regretting the David Price contract? 7 years $217M ouch. There should never be a team giving any pitcher over 30 a deal longer than 5 years tops. Sad part teams will over pay and get burned in the last 2 years if not more.

This is why guys like Archer are going to cost so much in trades...

[USAFChief]

Hard to envision how that plan could go awry.

Well, I agree. Unless you're being sarcastic, in which case, how does it go awry?

 

They end up paying for the end years of a long contract?

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Seems a bit risky ... unless you're talking 5/100 with a chance to get 10 more though incentives 

$110 million is a lot of money! Doesn't matter the player, Kershaw, Darvish, Bryce Harper, Kyle Gibson... it's a lot of money

[tarheeltwinsfan]

 

What does he deserve?

About $126,000,000.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

 

I guess now I'd just sign 2-3 pitchers on one year deals. Take your pick of the litter from Jason Vargas, Tillman, Garcia, Cashner, Hellickson...

I'd rather see some rookies get the 1st year jitters out and maybe, just maybe one will shine this year. Let's see what we've got in the minor league pitchers. And maybe we can sign another relief pitcher with some of the money we saved on not being able to sign Darvish.

[jimmer]

 

I'd rather see some rookies get the 1st year jitters out and maybe, just maybe one will shine this year. Let's see what we've got in the minor league pitchers. And maybe we can sign another relief pitcher with some of the money we saved on not being able to sign Darvish.

So the same strategy we have every year.

[tvagle]

Appreciate the discussion on 3 Options, my first intention was to not have to read more D-word posts..Mission Accomplished

 

Maybe a better way to posit this would be to say:

 

Would you rather trade for 4 years of Archer or 6 of someone like Honeywell and what would each take to get? I'm reading it'd take more for Honeywell than for Archer?

 

There's a strong Phil Hughes Odor-with-izzi...might have a year or two of success and then those flyballs start carrying further and further...I agree let's roll with the youngsters instead

 

Would only take Span back if Kepler was sent and it reduced the prospect haul needed...Maybin/Cargo's might be more productive for less than Span in this market

 

If Kepler and Romero get the talks going for Archer, Falvine have to bring that one home no?

[tvagle]

 

So the same strategy we have every year.

 

Been working so far...seems plausible

Edited February 12, 2018 by tvagle

[tvagle]

 

Why in heaven would the Rays would even think about including Honeywell in any trade?

 

This may be a bit of a stretch, but it is still the off season so why not a little extra hyperbole on why the Rays would consider trading Honeywell

 

From KLaw's top 100 review on #15 Brent Honeywell

 

'He's a different sort of character and was even suspended briefly in late August by the team (not the league) for undisclosed reasons, although the Rays universally praise his competitiveness and work ethic."

 

Here's the reach...there is a precedence for a top 10 ranked prospect being dealt very early in his career

Trevor Bauer dealt when he was the #5 ranked mlb prospect for a Swedish 1st Baseman (Lars Anderson) and future Twin Killer Didi G...so there could be a similar situation with a player KLaw begins his report with "Honeywell is "the screwball guy" in both senses of the term"...Rays grow tired of the act and look to move him 

 

May be a toilet paper thin correlation...and with 3 days before the 1st workout it's good to have positive negative thoughts going into the season!

Edited February 12, 2018 by tvagle

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Here's the reach...there is a precedence for a top 10 ranked prospect being dealt very early in his career

Trevor Bauer dealt when he was the #5 ranked mlb prospect for a Swedish 1st Baseman (Lars Anderson) and future Twin Killer Didi G...

And the Arizona GM, manager, and pitching coach were all dismissed from their posts within 2 years of that trade.

[FormerMinnasotan]

According to Jon Heyman the bidding for Jake Arrieta might come down between the Twins and Brewers (of course we have heard this before). But still if it is between us and Milwaukee there is no reason for us to be outbid by a lower market team like Milwaukee for Arrieta. He might have shown regression the last few years, but for what it’s worth Chris Archer has shown regression too and is a few years younger than Arrieta.

[Vanimal46]

According to Jon Heyman the bidding for Jake Arrieta might come down between the Twins and Brewers (of course we have heard this before). But still if it is between us and Milwaukee there is no reason for us to be outbid by a lower market team like Milwaukee for Arrieta. He might have shown regression the last few years, but for what it’s worth Chris Archer has shown regression too and is a few years younger than Arrieta.

FWIW, Lavelle E Neal 3 was just on 9 to noon with PA, and he said there's a "zero percent" chance the Twins sign Arrieta.

[TheLeviathan]

 

According to Jon Heyman the bidding for Jake Arrieta might come down between the Twins and Brewers (of course we have heard this before). But still if it is between us and Milwaukee there is no reason for us to be outbid by a lower market team like Milwaukee for Arrieta. He might have shown regression the last few years, but for what it’s worth Chris Archer has shown regression too and is a few years younger than Arrieta.

 

Yeah, but Milwaukee has a bigger market and better weather.

 

Wait....

[Otto von Ballpark]

Arrieta is the one Boras client out of the major FA SP.

 

While some said we didn't have the luxury of beating the Cubs offer for Darvish, I think waiting on Arrieta/Boras is probably a bigger luxury that we can't afford. We can't risk going into the season with our current crop of SP.

[jimmer]

Archer was better in 2017 than 2016.

 

He also tied for 9th in fWAR amongst all qualifying MLB starters (5th in AL). He is consistently very good in a division where the offenses are normally top notch.

 

Not exactly sure why so many seem to think he isnt really all that great. We trying to make ourselves feel better when we dont get him and be ready to scream overpay if someone else does?

[jimmer]

Yeah, but Milwaukee has a bigger market and better weather.

 

Wait....

someone like Cain would never go there...

[Platoon]

I don't think the opt out clause is cut and dried, bad or good. If you need a pitcher for a window of opportunity and you sign a six year FA, opt out or not 6 yrs is the most years possible. If your projected window is 3 years, win or lose you then have a chance of getting out of that contract. And if he walks, you still have that contract off the books and can resign someone else if you think It makes sense. Now if it's a younger arm, and your window is 4 years and he wants a 2 year out, then it's not a good idea. Point being, opt outs are not simple yes or no's.

[ashbury]

Yeah, but Milwaukee has a bigger market and better weather.

Didn't we just get done explaining how teams situated on a coast have a big advantage over us?

[laloesch]

 

FWIW, Lavelle E Neal 3 was just on 9 to noon with PA, and he said there's a "zero percent" chance the Twins sign Arrieta.

 

Yeah Arrietta does not want to play in Minnesota.....PERIOD.

[FormerMinnasotan]

FWIW, Lavelle E Neal 3 was just on 9 to noon with PA, and he said there's a "zero percent" chance the Twins sign Arrieta.

Ok then, how about Lance Lynn or Alex Cobb. It’s cute the Twins want to do something about their rotation yet when push comes to shove they “sit on their hands”. Cobb and Lynn won’t break the bank so to speak and I’m sure they would sign a 4 yr deal. To walk away with none of the top 4 free agent pitchers would tell me the Twins FO either a. doesn’t realize how poor our current rotation is, or b. still stubbornly plays by the old “Twins Way” rules and only signs bottom feeder reclamation projects ala Ramon Ortiz, Livan Hernandez, Jason Marquis, Mike Pelfrey, or Kevin Correa. We need to sign at least one of the top free agent pitchers to prove we are “in it to win it”, IMO.

[gil4]

 

Is it wrong for me to hope he is a bust in Chicago?

 

To paraphrase the horrible old song, if that's wrong, I don't want to be right.

[NewClearHarley]

If we are considering out of the box options to look at acquiring I'd suggest inquiring with Miami as to what it would take to lure Dan Straily and Adam Conley here. 

[Oxtung]

 

If we are considering out of the box options to look at acquiring I'd suggest inquiring with Miami as to what it would take to lure Dan Straily and Adam Conley here. 

Why not just sign Cobb or Lynn and keep the prospects?

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Shouldn't Cobb have been signed by now, or was that going to be a cakewalk too?

[NewClearHarley]

 

Why not just sign Cobb or Lynn and keep the prospects?

I'm in favor of signing Cobb too - not really a fan of Lynn. Cobb and Straily coming here would give us some proven depth and I like both better than the Jaime Garcia/Jason Vargas types. No harm in finding what the AAA Marlins are asking.