Article: The Impending Rochester Rotation Crunch

[jimmer]

They aren't that incompetent to just let him go.

so, they are going to try and trade him? That should be interesting after he gets like 5M plus in arbitration. Edited December 6, 2017 by jimmer

[KirbyDome89]

 

Is that a worse outcome than if he had been rushed up two years, likely not pitched well, then likely been dfa'ed this offseason after missing a ton of time due to injury?

 

If he was good enough, they would have protected him on the 40 man.

That conclusion seems pretty absolute but we'll assume that scenario played out for every college arm they drafted. 

 

Would the lack of production matter? Does the DFA matter? Who cares if you're burning service time, you've already decided they aren't good enough to be protected on the 40 man anyway. If nothing else you would at least know what you're giving up. If they're so down on these college arms as to not care about protecting them then why the fuss about fast tracking them?

Edited December 6, 2017 by KirbyDome89

[nicksaviking]

 

He might surprise, but Slegers as a reliever really wouldn't profile as anything more than a long man, or possibly the 6th guy in a pen. 

 

 

I don't know, it seems to me the starters who get tossed to the pen thrive or dive with very little forewarning. Glen Perkins, Mike Minor, Wade Davis, (examples only, they were more well known for sure) all had good control but were rather blase at best as starters. They had pedestrian fastballs a slider and an off speed pitch, but they go to the pen and pick up 3 MPH on their fastball and become good relief pieces. 

 

Looking at Fangraphs data though, that velocity increase doesn't typically happen until the first full season away from starting. So regardless if it's Slegers or a guy like Tom Koehler who I was a bit interested in, if the team wants to give them a fair shake in the pen, they need to know going in that their roll is to come on in relief.

[drjim]

 

I don't know, it seems to me the starters who get tossed to the pen thrive or dive with very little forewarning. Glen Perkins, Mike Minor, Wade Davis, (examples only, they were more well known for sure) all had good control but were rather blase at best as starters. They had pedestrian fastballs a slider and an off speed pitch, but they go to the pen and pick up 3 MPH on their fastball and become good relief pieces. 

 

Looking at Fangraphs data though, that velocity increase doesn't typically happen until the first full season away from starting. So regardless if it's Slegers or a guy like Tom Koehler who I was a bit interested in, if the team wants to give them a fair shake in the pen, they need to know going in that their roll is to come on in relief.

 

I haven't dug into Minor a whole lot, seems mostly injury related, but I think generally a good profile for a starter to really good reliever transition is having a plus second pitch and not much of a third and fourth pitch. Probably more important than a couple tick jump in fastball.

 

I imagine the lag time is due partly to figuring out the transition. This is one reason I would potentially be in favor of Romero making the switch, but I think it is also smart to give him one more early look at being a starter.

 

The rest of the guys just seem like long men in the pen if they cant make it as a backend starter, not much of a plus pitch anywhere.

[nicksaviking]

 

so, they are going to try and trade him? That should be interesting.

 

Why would they let him go at all?

 

Maybe his last two months were a fluke, but considering the dramatic uptick in usage of his four-seamer and the dramatic reduction of his sinker, it seems like there is at least enough evidence that his strong second half production was due to the fact that he got on board with what the team was preaching and he'll continue to do so.

 

Seems odd he'd be kicked to the curb after he's done what was asked of him and it actually paid off.

[nicksaviking]

 

I haven't dug into Minor a whole lot, seems mostly injury related, but I think generally a good profile for a starter to really good reliever transition is having a plus second pitch and not much of a third and fourth pitch. Probably more important than a couple tick jump in fastball.

 

 

I'm always excited about a velocity jump but the effectiveness very well could be due to the secondary pitch. Though I'd think any velocity increase would also benefit a slider and a slider always does seem to be part of the package of starters turned good relievers.

[jimmer]

Why would they let him go at all?

 

Maybe his last two months were a fluke, but considering the dramatic uptick in usage of his four-seamer and the dramatic reduction of his sinker, it seems like there is at least enough evidence that his strong second half production was due to the fact that he got on board with what the team was preaching and he'll continue to do so.

 

Seems odd he'd be kicked to the curb after he's done what was asked of him and it actually paid off.

he had a good five game streak in there from mid August to mid Sept (4 games against the 12th, 13th and 15th scoring offense in the AL and then another against the lowest scoring team in baseball) Then his last three games we saw vintage Gibson: 17 innings pitched, 11 earned runs. Why are so many people convinced he finally turned it around (like when so.

many said they were convinced he turned himself around after his 2015 season ended)?

Edited December 6, 2017 by jimmer

[Thrylos]

 

Why would they let him go at all?

 

Maybe his last two months were a fluke, but considering the dramatic uptick in usage of his four-seamer and the dramatic reduction of his sinker, it seems like there is at least enough evidence that his strong second half production was due to the fact that he got on board with what the team was preaching and he'll continue to do so.

 

Seems odd he'd be kicked to the curb after he's done what was asked of him and it actually paid off.

 

Especially with a new pitching coach coming...

[drjim]

 

I'm always excited about a velocity jump but the effectiveness very well could be due to the secondary pitch. Though I'd think any velocity increase though would benefit a slider and a slider always does seem to be part of the package of starers turned good relievers.

 

Something that could also happen (not saying it would work for Slegers), is moving to the bullpen will lead to him dropping a couple of his secondary pitches and focusing on the best one, leading to it playing up in shorter stints, in addition to an uptick in the fastball.

 

But I wouldn't do that yet for Slegers, he will be needed for early starting depth.

[Nick Nelson]

 

he had a good five game streak in there from mid August to mid Sept (4 games against the 12th, 13th and 15th scoring offense in the AL and then another against the lowest scoring team in baseball) Then his last three games we saw vintage Gibson: 17 innings pitched, 11 earned runs. Why are so many people convinced he finally turned it around (like when so.
many said they were convinced he turned himself around after his 2015 season ended)?

He still had a 13% swinging strike rate in those final three starts, and struck out 20 hitters in 17 innings. That matters more than the results in my eyes, and helps to answer your final question.

[DJL44]

I think Mejia might be the guy moved to the bullpen. 21 starts and only 5 of them longer than 5 innings. Even with those short starts he was just average. .761 OPS against the first time facing a batter (which isn't that impressive), .933 OPS against the 2nd time. Very seldom in the game for a 3rd time around the lineup

[Danchat]

 

so, they are going to try and trade him? That should be interesting after he gets like 5M plus in arbitration.

Whoops, I had forgotten about how the Twins had tendered all their RFAs, so Gibson's under contract. I don't imagine they'd get much in a trade but it could be worthwhile. I wanted to believe this guy could be a #3 pitcher, but his performances are just so frustrating, fluctuating between a legit starter and pumpkin over the 2017 season.

[jimmer]

Whoops, I had forgotten about how the Twins had tendered all their RFAs, so Gibson's under contract. I don't imagine they'd get much in a trade but it could be worthwhile. I wanted to believe this guy could be a #3 pitcher, but his performances are just so frustrating, fluctuating between a legit starter and pumpkin over the 2017 season.

not to mention the 2016 season. His 2017 was practically a mirror image of his 2016.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

 

Is there any advantage to starting a pitcher coming off of injury (May - Tommy John surgery) in a warmer climate like Chattanooga or Fort Myers?

I'd think if he starts the season on the DL, he'd go to Extended Spring training first, no?

[bird]

 

So you think Slegers is more likely to be a good MLB pitcher than Thorpe? 

 

I get what your viewpoint is but I'm not all that convinced that we're seeing much more than a handful of anecdotal examples where and that there's a discernible pattern. There are probably as many examples of an organization aggressively promoting pitchers and watching them struggle mightily than there are of that same team being rewarded. I could be wrong about this, but I generally believe the readiness of all these players is defined by their own individual performances, and that development philosophy plays a very insignificant role.

[nicksaviking]

he had a good five game streak in there from mid August to mid Sept (4 games against the 12th, 13th and 15th scoring offense in the AL and then another against the lowest scoring team in baseball) Then his last three games we saw vintage Gibson: 17 innings pitched, 11 earned runs. Why are so many people convinced he finally turned it around (like when so.

many said they were convinced he turned himself around after his 2015 season ended)?

Nobody is convinced, but if you're seriously asking why there is optimism from 2017 when folks were fooled in 2015 look at the dynamically different pitch usage his last two months of this past year:

 

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/outcome.php?player=502043&b_hand=-1&gFilt=&pFilt=FA|SI|FC|CU|SL|CS|KN|CH|FS|SB&time=month&minmax=ci&var=pcount&s_type=2&startDate=03/30/2007&endDate=12/06/2017

 

Considering the change coincided with the return from a recent demotion, it looks like he finally got the memo to lay off his bad sinker.

[yarnivek1972]

not to mention the 2016 season. His 2017 was practically a mirror image of his 2016.

This. Exactly. If you are expecting better results, you are setting yourself up for disappointment. I’m sure those are what Falvine’s expectations are. He’s still very tradeable. Any healthy pitcher is a tradeable commodity.

[drjim]

This. Exactly. If you are expecting better results, you are setting yourself up for disappointment. I’m sure those are what Falvine’s expectations are. He’s still very tradeable. Any healthy pitcher is a tradeable commodity.

So you want to have three holes instead of two?

 

Gibson is not great by any means, but it is a cheap contract and there are not a ton of alternatives floating around. It's a no brainer gamble for the Twins to take.

[jimmer]

 

Nobody is convinced, but if you're seriously asking why there is optimism in 2017 when folks were fooled in 2015 look at the dynamically different pitch usage his last two months of this past year:

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/outcome.php?player=502043&b_hand=-1&gFilt=&pFilt=FA|SI|FC|CU|SL|CS|KN|CH|FS|SB&time=month&minmax=ci&var=pcount&s_type=2&startDate=03/30/2007&endDate=12/06/2017

Considering the change coincided with the return from a recent demotion, it looks like he finally got the memo to lay off his bad sinker.

Like Gibson got the memo about his pitching in 2015, and Hughes got the memo about his pitching in 2014, and how Suzuki got the memo about his hitting in 2014? Remember Suzuki's mechanics fix, and Hughes fix cause of different pitch selection/grip and new home park?

 

Here's to hoping (cause I love being wrong when it means good things happened to our team), but I said after the 2015 season that he was going to be a drain on our rotation for years to come and we should trade him now.  I got slammed for my beliefs on him then too.  I was told he had finally figured it out, he was living up to his draft pick, things like that. I'll continue to have people be exasperated that I can't see the light on him after having 5 very nice game against horrible offenses who were having lost seasons.  As if that short sample size outweighs most of last season and all of 2016 (or, basically, his whole career minus 2015) and as if we know he'll stick to the changes (and that they'll continue to be effective).  Most players at 30 are who they are.

Edited December 6, 2017 by jimmer

[twinfan]

Prospects/Suspects- Call them what you will. Sometimes you have to take a chance and either trade 1-2 or put 1-2 in the rotation. I still say we will get something out of Hughes this season. I also wonder if Gibson turned the corner. We would not have made the playoffs without his contribution. Are there any free agents we can afford? How much would Fiers cost? 

[jimmer]

 

Prospects/Suspects- Call them what you will. Sometimes you have to take a chance and either trade 1-2 or put 1-2 in the rotation. I still say we will get something out of Hughes this season. I also wonder if Gibson turned the corner. We would not have made the playoffs without his contribution. Are there any free agents we can afford? How much would Fiers cost? 

We wouldn't have made the playoffs without his contribution?  How do you figure?  I mean, technically, everyone who played made a contribution, so in that sense, sure.  But his contribution was mostly about stinking up the joint almost the whole season.  For as well as he pitched for a month down the stretch, also have to include how he did the rest of the time cause all games count the same during  the season. There are plenty of pitchers who could have contributed like he did and we still get in.

 

71 SP in the AL had 150 more IP, he ranked 60th in FIP and WAR. For the ERA lovers, he ranked 64th.  He was 85th in WHIP.

 

He DID manage to get a lot of run support.  90 pitchers in baseball had 140 or more IP, he got the most run support: 6.62.  Next highest was 6.21 (and that was the NL).  The next highest in the AL was Cole Hamels and 6.13.

 

And he got demoted.

Edited December 6, 2017 by jimmer

[dgwills]

 

It happens, esp. if they do not have plus to plus plus stuff.  Just like Liam Hendiks whose 2.89 ERA, 1.079 WIP, 8.1 K/9, 2.4 BB/9 career MiLB numbers are in the ballpark of Kyle Hendricks's (2.94 ERA, 1.098 WIP, 7.7 K/9, 2.2 BB/9) and Stephen Gonsalves's (2.39 ERA, 1.087 WIP, 9.7 K/9, 3.3 BB/9). 

 

For every Kyle, there is a Liam.

There was I time that I thought they were the same guy and that Liam just turned things around after leaving the Twin's. Led to a couple of confusing conversations  with my friends that are cubs fans.

[Shane Wahl]

I could actually imagine both Slegers and Enns ending up in the MLB pen eventually.

 

[yarnivek1972]

So you want to have three holes instead of two?

 

Gibson is not great by any means, but it is a cheap contract and there are not a ton of alternatives floating around. It's a no brainer gamble for the Twins to take.

If the Twins don’t have 5 pitchers better than Kyle Gibson, they aren’t legitimate title contenders IMO.

[Thrylos]

 

I'd think if he starts the season on the DL, he'd go to Extended Spring training first, no?

 

Not necessarily.  If he starts the season on the DL as soon as he is game ready, he will probably make some rehab starts likely with the Miracle and then with Chattanooga or Rochester.  

 

One important point:  May has another option left, which can be useful to eg. help him build endurance in Rochester, even if he is not crisp with his pitches and would be a liability if in the majors (where it counts.)

[SydneyTwinsFan]

After a nightmare start, Gibson was pretty solid for the last 4 months of the season:

 

From 1 June - 21 GS; 121.1 IP; 4.23 ERA; 7.1 K/9; 2.9 BB/9

 

Over the same period:

Santana - 22 GS; 134.1 IP; 4.15 ERA; 7.4 K/9; 2.2 BB/9

Berrios - 21 GS; 119.0 IP; 4.16 ERA; 8.5 K/9; 3.0 BB/9

 

Of course games played in April and May count just of much, and yes the sample size is a bit arbitrary. I don't know whether the last 4 months represents a "turning of the corner" or a sample size fluke, but to argue Gibson wasn't a contributor over a long period of the season is a bit unfair IMO.

[drjim]

If the Twins don’t have 5 pitchers better than Kyle Gibson, they aren’t legitimate title contenders IMO.

That may be true. But they should probably focus on getting three pitchers before they worry about getting rid of Gibson.

 

I would still say last year showed that they can make the playoffs with Gibson in the rotation. Probably don't want him starting in the postseason though.

[old nurse]

 

Prospects/Suspects- Call them what you will. Sometimes you have to take a chance and either trade 1-2 or put 1-2 in the rotation. I still say we will get something out of Hughes this season. I also wonder if Gibson turned the corner. We would not have made the playoffs without his contribution. Are there any free agents we can afford? How much would Fiers cost? 

Fiers will probably get a 2 year deal worth about 20 million. If he is your free agent starter added he would  cost any shot at competing in the playoffs.  If you signed him because you traded Gibson, he only costs a little money  that could have been better spent elsewhere.

[yarnivek1972]

That may be true. But they should probably focus on getting three pitchers before they worry about getting rid of Gibson.

 

I would still say last year showed that they can make the playoffs with Gibson in the rotation. Probably don't want him starting in the postseason though.

I would say there was a very clear line in the AL this past year. The Twins were not nearly as good as the other 4 teams in the playoffs. Not nearly. And even further behind the top two.

 

So, yeah, if no one else in the AL gets better they can make the playoffs with Gibson in the rotation. Didn’t say they couldn’t. But making the playoffs doesn’t make a team a legitimate title contender. The pretenders are pretty quickly dismissed in the current playoff format.

Edited December 7, 2017 by yarnivek1972

[Linus]

I guess I'm surprised that anybody thinks the Twins system has too many good pitchers. I'll believe it when they show they should be in the big leagues.