Trade market for starting pitchers

[gunnarthor]

So, just looking around the league a quick bit. Would a package of, say, Gordon (top 30 on most prospect lists) and Gonsalves/Romero (top 100 on most prospect lists) + 2 top 20 system prospects (Wade? Littel?) be enough for any of these guys?

These guys had good seasons on teams that should probably rebuild - 

Mets Jacob DeGrom - 3 years left - 30 years old next year. NL pitcher who has topped 200 just once (this year). 5 WAR pitcher last year.
Phillies Aaron Nola  - 4 years left - 25 next year - NL pitcher - 168ip is max so far. 4 WAR pitcher last year. Some injury history.

Pirates Gerrit Cole - 2 years left - 27 next year - NL pitcher - 200ip twice - 3 WAR guy last year - ace of Pirates pitching staff and huge former prospect. Never quite lived up to prospect billing but good starter.

Giants Madison Bumgarner - 2 years left at 12/year - stud pitcher with great reputation. Probably not likely to be moved as is arguably face of franchise and WS hero.

Blue Jays Marcus Stroman - legit ace this year - 6 WAR pitching in AL East. 3 years control left. Only 27 next year. Topped 200 twice. Short pitcher same issues you heard about with Berrios. Not sure Toronto is going to go full rebuild. Out pitched his fip, if you care.

A's Sean Manaea - 5 years of control. Not as good as the rest of these guys. Plays in Oakland which helps pitchers incredibly. Lowish k-totals. Former top 100 prospect. A's always looking to trade guys.

Tampa Archer - I don't think Tampa would move him, they aren't that far away. If they did, he's probably #1 on most lists and Twins would probably have to up their offer.

 

These guys had bad seasons on teams that should probably rebuild but are still young enough and were highly regarded prospects or older but might still have something.

 

Phillies Vince Velasquez - lots of strike outs, lots of walks. 26 next year.

Kevin Gausman - uber prospect, three years of control left. Has all the stuff, never quite put it together for a full season.

Reds Robert Stephenson - former top pitching prospect. Tons of walks, control issues. Not sure if starter or bullpen. Their Buxton prospect for years. Only 25 with lots of control years left but hasn't really figured it out for a while. Probably a better Alex Meyer type at this point.

Seattle - King Felix - bad season for him. Injured. Owed tons of money over next two years. Seattle would probably move him but he can veto a trade. 32 next year.

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

Why is Philly trading a 25 year old under control for 4 years?

Why are the A's trading a guy with 5 years control?

Neither of those make any sense for a rebuilding team to trade.

 

Bumgarner isn't being traded.

 

I doubt Archer is traded, but I'd consider that one.

Stroman? Again, I don't see the Jays punting. If they do, you'd have to do that one.

[Vanimal46]

Thanks for putting together this list. The package you're talking about Gordon + Romero/Gonsalves + 2 top 20 prospects sounds like a good starting point for negotiations. 

 

Out of the list, this would be my list of most appealing trade targets:

 

Stroman

DeGrom

Cole

Nola

Gausman 

 

 

The odds of San Francisco trading Bumgarner is less than 0%. 

[beckmt]

Biggest issue with a trade is that you are trading your top 2 closest to the majors pitching prospects to make it happen.  Twins need more possible arms, not less.  

Do not see a lot of hope with what the Twins have now.  Only Berrios and Mejia rate to be here 3 years from now.  

Santana and Gibson are very good at beating lite hitting bad or rebuilding teams, do not have as much confidence on them beating the teams the Twins need to beat.  

Twins may have to trade Sano, Rosario or Kepler headlining a deal to get a young pitcher already in the bigs with #1 or #2 starting potential to even get the needle to move.  With the pitching market what it is now, some GM's might even ask for two of them to make a deal.

[gunnarthor]

 

Why is Philly trading a 25 year old under control for 4 years?

Why are the A's trading a guy with 5 years control?

Neither of those make any sense for a rebuilding team to trade.

 

Bumgarner isn't being traded.

 

I doubt Archer is traded, but I'd consider that one.

Stroman? Again, I don't see the Jays punting. If they do, you'd have to do that one.

I think the reason you trade Nola (if you're Philly) is you trade him if you think this is a good sell high time and/or you're worried about his durability in the longterm. If they did trade him, I don't think Gordon/Gonslaves would actually be enough. The Phillies SN team discussed moving him at the deadline and basically wanted to be blown away.  Which is the right view for them to take. But if we think Nola moves the needle for us, do we blow them away (I don't think Gonsalves/Gordon is enough).

 

As for the A's, who knows. They're just moving pieces for no reason until they get funding. Manaea's not exactly an ace so a package like that looks good for a soft tossing lefty.

 

Agreed on Bumgarner but he's a great pitcher on the second worst team. I should have mentioned Matt Moore as a real possibility. Had a horrible season but two more option years and is still young. Do you want to gamble on a guy like him?

 

I think Archer and Stroman aren't likely since both teams probably feel that they can make a jump - hell, the 100 loss Twins did it! I think DeGrom is the most likely name on that list but I'm not sure how I feel about him.

[gunnarthor]

 

Biggest issue with a trade is that you are trading your top 2 closest to the majors pitching prospects to make it happen.  Twins need more possible arms, not less.  

Do not see a lot of hope with what the Twins have now.  Only Berrios and Mejia rate to be here 3 years from now.  

Santana and Gibson are very good at beating lite hitting bad or rebuilding teams, do not have as much confidence on them beating the teams the Twins need to beat.  

Twins may have to trade Sano, Rosario or Kepler headlining a deal to get a young pitcher already in the bigs with #1 or #2 starting potential to even get the needle to move.  With the pitching market what it is now, some GM's might even ask for two of them to make a deal.

I'm not suggesting both Gonsalves and Romero, just one + Gordon to headline the trade. Sorry if that wasn't clear.

 

I do think the Twins could make a package around Rosario as well and that might be more acceptable to other teams. 

[NapoleonComplex]

 

Why is Philly trading a 25 year old under control for 4 years?

Why are the A's trading a guy with 5 years control?

Neither of those make any sense for a rebuilding team to trade.

 

Bumgarner isn't being traded.

 

I doubt Archer is traded, but I'd consider that one.

Stroman? Again, I don't see the Jays punting. If they do, you'd have to do that one.

 

Agree with all of this. Top target on my list is deGrom. He is expendable, comes with control, and has dominant stuff when healthy. I believe a package Gordon + Gonsalves + 2 top 10 - 20 guys could swing it. I have too good a feeling about Romero to include him in any trade.

 

[DocBauer]

Thanks for your work! I also think you have a reasonable starting point for tradeable assets. I'm not opposed to a trade scenario such as these.

 

But I truly hope we can make a decent FA signing and hold on to our prospects for now. Doing so keeps depth and competition..

Santana might only be here 1 more season for instance...and keeping as much depth as possible opens up further trade possibilities down the road.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Not sure if Gordon + Gonsalves gets any top guys.  Both are decent prospects, but seem to be of the "higher floor" variety than higher ceiling types, and I don't see a team suddenly moving someone like, say, DeGrom or Stroman for that.

[Twodogs]

I don't think you try to do any of that.  I think you sign some free agents, spend some real money on a free agent pitcher, a good one, then you don't lose your prospects to replace Santana and Gibson in a year or so.  Gordon will need to replace Dozier when his contract is up also, if the Twins don't re-sign him or don't offer enough money, I mean it will be Dozier's last shot at a big deal so it will be hard for the Twins to bring him back with Gordon in the wings.  I say go after a real good starting pitcher, maybe a bullpen guy and keep the depth.  They may need to trade one or more of those guys at the deadline next year also depending on what situation they are in.

[gunnarthor]

 

Not sure if Gordon + Gonsalves gets any top guys.  Both are decent prospects, but seem to be of the "higher floor" variety than higher ceiling types, and I don't see a team suddenly moving someone like, say, DeGrom or Stroman for that.

That's a fair point. 

[Vanimal46]

 

I don't think you try to do any of that.  I think you sign some free agents, spend some real money on a free agent pitcher, a good one, then you don't lose your prospects to replace Santana and Gibson in a year or so.  Gordon will need to replace Dozier when his contract is up also, if the Twins don't re-sign him or don't offer enough money, I mean it will be Dozier's last shot at a big deal so it will be hard for the Twins to bring him back with Gordon in the wings.  I say go after a real good starting pitcher, maybe a bullpen guy and keep the depth.  They may need to trade one or more of those guys at the deadline next year also depending on what situation they are in.

 

Here's the list of SP free agents (not including potential opt-outs like Tanaka, Cueto, etc.) 

Who would you spend some real money on?

[Blake]

 

Here's the list of SP free agents (not including potential opt-outs like Tanaka, Cueto, etc.) 

Who would you spend some real money on?

The one who has OWNED New York over the last few years. And yes, that would be the first data point I looked at.

[prouster]

Here's the list of SP free agents (not including potential opt-outs like Tanaka, Cueto, etc.)

 

Who would you spend some real money on?

As far as FA starters go, I like Cobb. He's put up good performances and is likely affordable. Darvish would be great. He'd also be really, really surprising. Otani is also likely to come over from Japan. Again, he would be great, but the actual chances of getting him to sign here might actually be 0%.

 

So Cobb. Maybe Lance Lynn. In my opinion, any free agent starter they sign is likely to be a mid rotation arm at best. That's not a bad thing, but it means they also need to work on building a better pen.

[Vanimal46]

 

As far as FA starters go, I like Cobb. He's put up good performances and is likely affordable. Darvish would be great. He'd also be really, really surprising. Otani is also likely to come over from Japan. Again, he would be great, but the actual chances of getting him to sign here might actually be 0%.

So Cobb. Maybe Lance Lynn. In my opinion, any free agent starter they sign is likely to be a mid rotation arm at best. That's not a bad thing, but it means they also need to work on building a better pen.

 

Those are both possibilities. Both may receive a qualifying offer as well. So the Twins would be out a 2nd round pick (I think) if they chose to sign either/or. 

 

EDIT: I also agree with your 2nd paragraph. If they go with the mid rotation arm, the bullpen needs a shut down reliever. If they aim higher with a top of the rotation arm, perhaps they can get away with a $2-3 MM signing and internal options for the bullpen. 

[Loosey]

 

As far as FA starters go, I like Cobb. He's put up good performances and is likely affordable. Darvish would be great. He'd also be really, really surprising. Otani is also likely to come over from Japan. Again, he would be great, but the actual chances of getting him to sign here might actually be 0%.

So Cobb. Maybe Lance Lynn. In my opinion, any free agent starter they sign is likely to be a mid rotation arm at best. That's not a bad thing, but it means they also need to work on building a better pen.

I think Cobb is the most realistic.  Maybe after making the playoffs and showing ownership that this team the way they are currently constructed can compete with a legitimate Top end rotation piece(s) and a lockdown bullpen and allow the team to go out and spend on their needs.  

 

In the past there were holes and lots of them.  Now, they can pin point to the 2 biggest needs and if they fix it can be for real contenders.

[Loosey]

 

Those are both possibilities. Both may receive a qualifying offer as well. So the Twins would be out a 2nd round pick (I think) if they chose to sign either/or. 

Cobb in an UFA this offseason.  Can they receive QO's?

[Loosey]

 

Those are both possibilities. Both may receive a qualifying offer as well. So the Twins would be out a 2nd round pick (I think) if they chose to sign either/or. 

 

EDIT: I also agree with your 2nd paragraph. If they go with the mid rotation arm, the bullpen needs a shut down reliever. If they aim higher with a top of the rotation arm, perhaps they can get away with a $2-3 MM signing and internal options for the bullpen. 

The QO rule changed this year too.  Unless a team is already over the luxury tax they don't have to pay with a 2nd round pick anymore.  It's now a 3rd rounder instead.  This rule was put into place so good, not great players don't get held hostage by their current teams like Ian Desmond and get paid fractions of what they would get in a true free market.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I don't think you try to do any of that.  I think you sign some free agents, spend some real money on a free agent pitcher, a good one, then you don't lose your prospects to replace Santana and Gibson in a year or so.  Gordon will need to replace Dozier when his contract is up also, if the Twins don't re-sign him or don't offer enough money, I mean it will be Dozier's last shot at a big deal so it will be hard for the Twins to bring him back with Gordon in the wings.  I say go after a real good starting pitcher, maybe a bullpen guy and keep the depth.  They may need to trade one or more of those guys at the deadline next year also depending on what situation they are in.

 

there are no good FA pitchers, and if you squint and decide there are, you think the Twins will outbid the other teams for one of them?

[Mike Sixel]

 

As far as FA starters go, I like Cobb. He's put up good performances and is likely affordable. Darvish would be great. He'd also be really, really surprising. Otani is also likely to come over from Japan. Again, he would be great, but the actual chances of getting him to sign here might actually be 0%.

So Cobb. Maybe Lance Lynn. In my opinion, any free agent starter they sign is likely to be a mid rotation arm at best. That's not a bad thing, but it means they also need to work on building a better pen.

 

so, there are maybe 3-4 good SPs, and you think demand will be so low that they are affordable?

[OldTimeTwinkie]

Just read an article listing the most disappointingly player on each team and what caught my attention was that the majority of them were pitchers who had promising seasons then Frizzeled out. Trading position prospects that are highly rated for pitchers do not seem like a good bet. Any thoughts?

[Mike Sixel]

 

Just read an article listing the most disappointingly player on each team and what caught my attention was that the majority of them were pitchers who had promising seasons then Frizzeled out. Trading position prospects that are highly rated for pitchers do not seem like a good bet. Any thoughts?

 

At some point, you need pitching. How do you propose getting it if you won't trade for it?

 

How are all those draft picks across MLB working out? Over, what, 100 are picked every year? 200? How do those odds work out?

[SF Twins Fan]

Does Jason Vargas do anything for anyone?

[gunnarthor]

 

Does Jason Vargas do anything for anyone?

well, he's affordable, I suppose.

[smoot27]

I doubt we trade for a top tier pitcher. I think it's far more likely we sign a mid rotation guy and add a couple quality bullpen addictions. Maybe we get an Alex Cobb type to put 2nd in the rotation.

 

I could live with a rotation like Santana, Cobb, Berrios, Gibson, Mejia if we improve the pen.

 

We likely gave away several games this year throwing out Hughes, Santiago, Sledgers, Wilk and Turley.

 

This rotation with Romero/Gonsalves on deck would at least represent a modest improvement.

 

With a quality reliever (Tony Watson/Bryan Shaw) and some BP depth, we should have a realistic shot at 90+ wins.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

As far as FA starters go, I like Cobb. He's put up good performances and is likely affordable. Darvish would be great. He'd also be really, really surprising. Otani is also likely to come over from Japan. Again, he would be great, but the actual chances of getting him to sign here might actually be 0%.

So Cobb. Maybe Lance Lynn. In my opinion, any free agent starter they sign is likely to be a mid rotation arm at best. That's not a bad thing, but it means they also need to work on building a better pen.

 

Otani is interesting due to his age. He's essentially capped at what he can get. I've got to think things like endorsements/marketing will mean a lot to him.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I doubt we trade for a top tier pitcher. I think it's far more likely we sign a mid rotation guy and add a couple quality bullpen addictions. Maybe we get an Alex Cobb type to put 2nd in the rotation.

I could live with a rotation like Santana, Cobb, Berrios, Gibson, Mejia if we improve the pen.

We likely gave away several games this year throwing out Hughes, Santiago, Sledgers, Wilk and Turley.

This rotation with Romero/Gonsalves on deck would at least represent a modest improvement.

With a quality reliever (Tony Watson/Bryan Shaw) and some BP depth, we should have a realistic shot at 90+ wins.

 

Almost no team has a realistic shot at 90+ wins.

[smoot27]

Almost no team has a realistic shot at 90+ wins.

Only 2 playoff teams didn't win 90.

[Guest]

Twins can't afford to pay full price for an ace or ace potential with long term control, nor do they want to take the risk that, after paying full price, the pitcher gets injured. Instead, what they can do is get another #3- type starter to solidify the rotation, then get an ace rental at the trade deadline.

 

They can also reasonably expect for more from some or all of Berrios, Mejia, Gonsalves, Romero and May.

 

They can also reasonably expect the bullpen to be better with young pitchers contributing more this year and the team hopefully signing a higher tier of free agent.

[Guest]

Does Jason Vargas do anything for anyone?

I think he's done well for his family.