Trade market for starting pitchers

[Mike Sixel]

 

 I wonder if Detroit will consider moving Verlander this offseason.

 

//ducks

 

first quality start of the post season! Only pitcher that lasted to the 6th (well, Sale did, but his manager is not too bright at managing pitchers, apparently). A missed opportunity, imo.

[drjim]

first quality start of the post season! Only pitcher that lasted to the 6th (well, Sale did, but his manager is not too bright at managing pitchers, apparently). A missed opportunity, imo.

It really seems like Verlander wanted no part of the Twins. Missed opportunity in not being good enough to be an attractive destination.

[Mike Sixel]

 

It really seems like Verlander wanted no part of the Twins. Missed opportunity in not being good enough to be an attractive destination.

 

We literally have no idea. All we know with any certainty is he's not here, and there is one less SP to trade for next year. 

[drjim]

We literally have no idea. All we know with any certainty is he's not here, and there is one less SP to trade for next year.

I don't know about literally no idea. Depends how much you believe reporting.

[Mike Sixel]

I don't know about literally no idea. Depends how much you believe reporting.

Fair. Either way, he's not here, and they have at least three questions at starting pitcher.

[drjim]

Fair. Either way, he's not here, and they have at least three questions at starting pitcher.

 

I was a strong advocate for pursuing Verlander until it was clear he didn't want to come.

[gunnarthor]

Twins were never going to pick up Verlander's salary.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I added the salaries on Spotrac. With Carrasco and Salazar, they do get to about $50M, but they're not on the ALDS roster.

 

Carrasco is on the roster. He is scheduled to start game 3.

[drjim]

Carrasco is on the roster. He is scheduled to start game 3.

Salazar is on the roster too, if not the rotation.

[USAFChief]

Twins were never going to pick up Verlander's salary.

If true, evidence ownership doesn't really care about winning.

[Thrylos]

 

 

I could live with a rotation like Santana, Cobb, Berrios, Gibson, Mejia if we improve the pen.

 

May may have something to say about this.

[Guest]

Carrasco is on the roster. He is scheduled to start game 3.

You're right. Ok, it's $50M for the whole staff. Still not breaking the bank.

[Thrylos]

The Twins need to sell high and buy low.  E. Santana's value will not be much higher than it is now, and he is due for regression.  With a 4.46 FIP and a 4.60 SIERA he is pretty much a sure bet to regress.  Someone will look at his 3.30 ERA, 16-8 record and 211 IP and value those numbers enough to give the Twins something good in return (young MLB-ready controllable pitching.)  Can he bring back someone like Francis Martes or  Tyler Glasnow (both buy low?)  Those are the kind of deals the Twins should explore.

[jorgenswest]

Love to have a Glasnow. He was lights out in AAA. Pittsburgh will have patience and he is likely ready to contribute next year. If they want to move him, they will find a return better than Santana.

 

If Houston doesn’t get to World Series, they may look to add veterans and really push for next year. Martes seems like a more feasible return for Santana. Martes probably not ready to make significant contribution next year. He really struggled in AAA. Love the upside.

[Thrylos]

 

Love to have a Glasnow. He was lights out in AAA. Pittsburgh will have patience and he is likely ready to contribute next year. If they want to move him, they will find a return better than Santana.

If Houston doesn’t get to World Series, they may look to add veterans and really push for next year. Martes seems like a more feasible return for Santana. Martes probably not ready to make significant contribution next year. He really struggled in AAA. Love the upside.

 

Agree with the assessment.  The names were just examples (thus the like.)  Those are the kind of players I think that the Twins should be after, while shedding older resources...

[Otto von Ballpark]

The Twins need to sell high and buy low. E. Santana's value will not be much higher than it is now, and he is due for regression. With a 4.46 FIP and a 4.60 SIERA he is pretty much a sure bet to regress. Someone will look at his 3.30 ERA, 16-8 record and 211 IP and value those numbers enough to give the Twins something good in return (young MLB-ready controllable pitching.) Can he bring back someone like Francis Martes or Tyler Glasnow (both buy low?) Those are the kind of deals the Twins should explore.

If the pitching is MLB ready, why would those teams give it up for Ervin? After his horrendous playoff performance, knowing his chances for regression at his age? Even assuming you can find a GM who is looking past those things about Ervin (not a good assumption, by the way), the odds that GM also has a young MLB ready pitcher to deal are probably quite low.

 

The two teams you cite are unlikely candidates to give us strong returns. The Pirates probably have no interest in giving up a potential cheap contributor for Erv's contract given that he is probably no better for them than another Ivan Nova, and the Astros rotation is stacked (Verlander, Keuchel, McCullers, McHugh, Morton, Peacock all controlled for 2018 or beyond).

 

Ervin solidifies rotation depth more than he helps at the top end , and he is probably more valuable to the Twins in that capacity (with our paucity of viable SP) than he is to anyone else in trade.

[Otto von Ballpark]

If Houston doesn’t get to World Series, they may look to add veterans and really push for next year. Martes seems like a more feasible return for Santana. Martes probably not ready to make significant contribution next year. He really struggled in AAA. Love the upside.

How does Ervin help the Astros push for the WS? See my post above about their SP already controlled for 2018 or beyond. If they don't get it done this year, they will probably aim a lot higher than Ervin.

[Tomj14]

 

I wouldn't trade Gonsalves or Romero they are best two pitchers we got coming up to the big leagues I would package a trade with Gibson ,kohl Stewart and Wander Javier to the Mets for DeGrom. If that doesn't I turn around try send them to Dodgers for Walker Buehler and trade after one of those go out sign bullpen help and Alex Cobb so the rotation with one of those trades and the signing of Cobb be 

 

Buehler/DeGrom

Berrios

Santana

Cobb

Mejia 

 

Bullpen

hildenberger

Rogers

Busenitz

May?? 

FA

FA

CL

Gibson, Stewart and Javier aren't getting DeGrom, or anybody else on the Mets. If you want DeGrom and I do, it starts with Romero or Gonzo, plus Gordon and probably Kepler or Rosario, or a couple of prospects with huge upside and maybe an injury history.

The only team that I see that would want Gibson in a trade is St. Louis, because they will turn him around and magically become a #2.

 

If I am GM, I am calling the Mets and asking about their starters and what it would take get any of them. (Harvey, DeGrom, Martz, Syndergaard, Lugo, Wheeler, etc..

[Tomj14]

 

The Twins need to sell high and buy low.  E. Santana's value will not be much higher than it is now, and he is due for regression.  With a 4.46 FIP and a 4.60 SIERA he is pretty much a sure bet to regress.  Someone will look at his 3.30 ERA, 16-8 record and 211 IP and value those numbers enough to give the Twins something good in return (young MLB-ready controllable pitching.)  Can he bring back someone like Francis Martes or  Tyler Glasnow (both buy low?)  Those are the kind of deals the Twins should explore.

and one failed drug test from missing a whole year correct?

[laloesch]

first quality start of the post season! Only pitcher that lasted to the 6th (well, Sale did, but his manager is not too bright at managing pitchers, apparently). A missed opportunity, imo.

Only in your dreams would Detroit trade Verlander to a division rival.

[Major League Ready]

 

The Twins need to sell high and buy low.  E. Santana's value will not be much higher than it is now, and he is due for regression.  With a 4.46 FIP and a 4.60 SIERA he is pretty much a sure bet to regress.  Someone will look at his 3.30 ERA, 16-8 record and 211 IP and value those numbers enough to give the Twins something good in return (young MLB-ready controllable pitching.)  Can he bring back someone like Francis Martes or  Tyler Glasnow (both buy low?)  Those are the kind of deals the Twins should explore.

 

I like the out of the box thinking.  Most people are probably thinking we need to keep Erv and add but I don’t see a formula where that approach gets us past the Indians in the next couple years.  It’s a great long-term play if we can get a good return on Santana and this year looks to be a seller’s market. 

 

This would be a great approach if we could pick up Cobb or Lynn.  That would mean we go with Berrios, Lynn or Cobb, Gibson, Mejia, and the 5th spot to May, Slegers or Gonsalves.  Maybe we can pick-up a rebound candidate as well.  Then, when Mauer’s salary (plus Santana/Hughes) comes off the books, we spend some money on a free agent(s) as our core is entering their prime.

 

If we traded Erv and added Cobb or Lynn, we should still have payroll room to bring back Kintzler and one other RP.   We should also be able to establish one or two of the several power arms that are in the minors now.

[Tomj14]

 

I like the out of the box thinking.  Most people are probably thinking we need to keep Erv and add but I don’t see a formula where that approach gets us past the Indians in the next couple years.  It’s a great long-term play if we can get a good return on Santana and this year looks to be a seller’s market. 

 

This would be a great approach if we could pick up Cobb or Lynn.  That would mean we go with Berrios, Lynn or Cobb, Gibson, Mejia, and the 5th spot to May, Slegers or Gonsalves.  Maybe we can pick-up a rebound candidate as well.  Then, when Mauer’s salary (plus Santana/Hughes) comes off the books, we spend some money on a free agent(s) as our core is entering their prime.

 

If we traded Erv and added Cobb or Lynn, we should still have payroll room to bring back Kintzler and one other RP.   We should also be able to establish one or two of the several power arms that are in the minors now.

I also like the outside the box thinking but what are we expecting for Santana? If Romero or Gonzo where on another team , would you trade Santana for one of them, or would you need more? I just don't see the value of trading Santana in the offseason.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I also like the outside the box thinking but what are we expecting for Santana? If Romero or Gonzo where on another team , would you trade Santana for one of them, or would you need more? I just don't see the value of trading Santana in the offseason.

 

I'd trade ESan for a top 50 SP prospect that was less than half a year from being in the majors, yes. If you think those are that, then yes. But only IF they signed a FA SP to take his place. If not, then I really don't know what to think about them even trying or not....

[prouster]

If the pitching is MLB ready, why would those teams give it up for Ervin? After his horrendous playoff performance, knowing his chances for regression at his age? Even assuming you can find a GM who is looking past those things about Ervin (not a good assumption, by the way), the odds that GM also has a young MLB ready pitcher to deal are probably quite low.

 

The two teams you cite are unlikely candidates to give us strong returns. The Pirates probably have no interest in giving up a potential cheap contributor for Erv's contract given that he is probably no better for them than another Ivan Nova, and the Astros rotation is stacked (Verlander, Keuchel, McCullers, McHugh, Morton, Peacock all controlled for 2018 or beyond).

 

Ervin solidifies rotation depth more than he helps at the top end , and he is probably more valuable to the Twins in that capacity (with our paucity of viable SP) than he is to anyone else in trade.

I agree about Pittsburgh and Houston. Seattle had interest in Santana at the deadline. I don't know enough about their system to have an opinion on the matter, though.

[nicksaviking]

Only in your dreams would Detroit trade Verlander to a division rival.

I don't know about that, but he was hesitant to go to Houston who is one of the four best teams in the league and likely will be through the remainder of his deal.

 

I think there was next to no chance he was going to waive his no trade clause to go to Minnesota when he knew better clubs were asking for him.

 

I don't think there is anyone to blame for not getting Verlander except Verlander himself; he held all the cards.

[Tomj14]

 

I'd trade ESan for a top 50 SP prospect that was less than half a year from being in the majors, yes. If you think those are that, then yes. But only IF they signed a FA SP to take his place. If not, then I really don't know what to think about them even trying or not....

are Gonzo and Romero going to be top 50 prospects?

[Mike Sixel]

 

are Gonzo and Romero going to be top 50 prospects?

 

probably not, .....but I'm not sure. I'm guessing they are both in 75-100 range....and I'd have to think longer about that. But, I'd probably still consider it. ESan is only going to age and fall off, and one more year of him, vs a FA SP signed for 3 years and a number 4/5 minor leaguer? I think I choose the second one. 

[Tomj14]

 

probably not, .....but I'm not sure. I'm guessing they are both in 75-100 range....and I'd have to think longer about that. But, I'd probably still consider it. ESan is only going to age and fall off, and one more year of him, vs a FA SP signed for 3 years and a number 4/5 minor leaguer? I think I choose the second one. 

How about really thinking outside the box, and trading Santana for a prospect(s) and then turning around and trading prospects for a Archer or DeGrom?

They way I see it now is that we don't have any great prospects close to being ready we do have a bunch of good prospects and not a lot of room for them, so turn some of quantity for quality.

[OldTimeTwinkie]

The key to the Twins moving forward from here is going to be this front office. If they are really good at talent evaluation they will trade prospects for pitching and/or free agents. Everybody does these things but only a few have success. The last regime was not good at pitching evaluation. If these guys can hit on their moves we are in the money if not ..... Let's hope these guys are stars then good things will fall in place.

[Major League Ready]

 

I also like the outside the box thinking but what are we expecting for Santana? If Romero or Gonzo where on another team , would you trade Santana for one of them, or would you need more? I just don't see the value of trading Santana in the offseason.

 

If you are only thinking about next season, then there is no value.  If you are satisfied with a shot at the 2nd wild card, then there is no value.  Keeping Santana and even adding Cobb or Lynn still does not even get you close to the Indians, Astros, Redsoxs, and Yankees.  If you are thinking about the next 6-7 seasons and becoming a serious contender, it could be extremely advantageous.  Obviously, that depends on how the players we get in trade work-out.   OIf course, Santana could easily decline given his age.

 

If you want to build a true contender, the type of out out the box thinking Thyros provided is going to be necessary.  Perhaps not specifically trading Santana but that concept.