2018 Expectations from 2017 Injured Pitcherrs

[strumdatjaguar]

It seems like the Twins will have an unusually high number of pitchers coming back from injury who could help them in 2018:  Perkins, Santiago, Hughes, May, Chargois, Burdi . . .  Whether a pitcher successfully bounces back from injury will be based on the nature of the injury, and the quality of talent and effort from each pitcher.   So who is likely to be washed up and who is not.  Here is my somewhat uncertain

take on three:

Perkins:  May be a LOOGY next year (even the new regime may show loyalty to local boy), but still unlikely.

Santiago:  Gone!

May: Will contribute in the bullpen for most of the season - maybe we'll get more.

 

[strumdatjaguar]

 

It seems like the Twins will have an unusually high number of pitchers coming back from injury who could help them in 2018:  Perkins, Santiago, Hughes, May, Chargois, Burdi . . .  Whether a pitcher successfully bounces back from injury will be based on the nature of the injury, and the quality of talent and effort from each pitcher.   So who is likely to be washed up and who is not.  Here is my somewhat uncertain

take on three:

Perkins:  May be a LOOGY next year (even the new regime may show loyalty to local boy), but still unlikely.

Santiago:  Gone!

May: Will contribute in the bullpen for most of the season - maybe we'll get more.

I'll add another to go out on a limb.   I think Phil Hughes' next surgery will fix the problem and he will contribute in the bullpen next year.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

What is O'Rourke's track record against lefties?

[yarnivek1972]

What is O'Rourke's track record against lefties?

Well, last year he gave up two hits to LHB in 26 at bats. Of course, one was a walk off HR.

[Thrylos]

 

It seems like the Twins will have an unusually high number of pitchers coming back from injury who could help them in 2018:  Perkins, Santiago, Hughes, May, Chargois, Burdi . . . 

 

Perkins and Santiago are free agents.  Good. Riddance.

 

May started a throwing program and hopefully he will be part of the Twins' rotation.   Chargois and Burdi hopefully will anchor the Twins' pen.  Hughes will likely have another one of the same surgery.  Fork stuck in him too.

[Thrylos]

 

 

What is O'Rourke's track record against lefties?

 

Forgot about him.  He is just tailor made to be a Saint.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

It seems like the Twins will have an unusually high number of pitchers coming back from injury who could help them in 2018: Perkins, Santiago, Hughes, May, Chargois, Burdi . . . Whether a pitcher successfully bounces back from injury will be based on the nature of the injury, and the quality of talent and effort from each pitcher. So who is likely to be washed up and who is not. Here is my somewhat uncertain

take on three:

Perkins: May be a LOOGY next year (even the new regime may show loyalty to local boy), but still unlikely.

Santiago: Gone!

May: Will contribute in the bullpen for most of the season - maybe we'll get more.

they'll buy out Perkins, can't pay 4.5 mil for a LOOGY. My prediction is he retires

 

I predict Hughes takes longer to come back from this surgery, returns mid year, still has nothing and goes back on the 60 day DL and stays there the following season as well until his contract is up

 

I think May could come back mid season into the rotation as an injury replacement.

[DaveW]

I think Perkins is back on a one year deal or a ST invite, based on how the next couple months go for him. Perkins is awesome, and if he is able to pitch halfway decent this year, bring him back on a one year, 2 mil deal with 3 mil more base on games finished. If he struggles, ST invite.

 

He's a great clubhouse guy, and it's not like this team is busting at the seams with bullpen depth anyways.

 

Santiago is gone.

 

Hughes: man, id love him to come back strong, I just have no faith in it, tough injury. Maybe he becomes a decent bullpen arm.

 

May; should be penciled into Gibson's rotation spot.

[Thrylos]

 

 

He's a great clubhouse guy,

 

Sure. Other when he throws his Rookie catcher under the bus on the papers.

 

Good. Riddance. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

May; should be penciled into Gibson's rotation spot.

Two small corrections:

 

1. Maybe should be very lightly pencilled into Gibson's rotation spot.

 

2. It's not Gibson's rotation spot.

 

But really, I question starting May in the rotation. Lots of time for him to show whether he has any feel for breaking stuff, which is often a problem coming out of surgery. I hope he's a lock for the rotation but it's a long road to April.

 

A league average May added to a league average Mejia and Santana, fronted by a good Berrios is actually a starting pitching rotation. We haven't seen one of those in MInnesota for over half a decade.

[Thrylos]

 

 

A league average May added to a league average Mejia and Santana, fronted by a good Berrios is actually a starting pitching rotation. We haven't seen one of those in MInnesota for over half a decade.

 

And where did an average pitching rotation take the Twins?   Not that far.   They need to do better than that.  They need at least one, if not 2 pitchers better than Berrios to say that they are going some place. 

(and the pen is another story altogether)

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Two small corrections:

 

1. Maybe should be very lightly pencilled into Gibson's rotation spot.

 

2. It's not Gibson's rotation spot.

 

But really, I question starting May in the rotation. Lots of time for him to show whether he has any feel for breaking stuff, which is often a problem coming out of surgery. I hope he's a lock for the rotation but it's a long road to April.

 

A league average May added to a league average Mejia and Santana, fronted by a good Berrios is actually a starting pitching rotation. We haven't seen one of those in MInnesota for over half a decade.

 

I have zero problems with May in the 5 spot if he's ready come spring. If not, I'm fine with a 60 day DL and one of our 5 or so 40 man guys in Rochester bouncing around on the occasional spot start until then.

 

I would, however, be very disappointed if they didn't get a very good starter this offseason to slate in that other open spot.

[drjim]

Sure. Other when he throws his Rookie catcher under the bus on the papers.

 

Good. Riddance.

Perkins was right.

[Thrylos]

 

Perkins was right.

 

"Right" to point a finger at a rookie teammate's deficiencies publicly, while he was the team's player's Union rep?  

 

Sure.

 

That was a response for the "a great clubhouse guy". 

[Brock Beauchamp]

And where did an average pitching rotation take the Twins? Not that far. They need to do better than that. They need at least one, if not 2 pitchers better than Berrios to say that they are going some place.

(and the pen is another story altogether)

Well, it just so happens I left out an entire rotation spot where the Twins can go find a legit pitcher.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I have zero problems with May in the 5 spot if he's ready come spring. If not, I'm fine with a 60 day DL and one of our 5 or so 40 man guys in Rochester bouncing around on the occasional spot start until then.

 

I would, however, be very disappointed if they didn't get a very good starter this offseason to slate in that other open spot.

In no way did I intend for that post to be read as "the Twins should not acquire a starter".

 

And May will start the season on the team unless something goes wrong. I hope it's in the rotation but we're still a long way from that point.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

In no way did I intend for that post to be read as "the Twins should not acquire a starter".

And May will start the season on the team unless something goes wrong. I hope it's in the rotation but we're still a long way from that point.

I wasn't saying you did.   Just contributing to what you said.

[Mike Sixel]

Hughes: If they count on him for starter, they are insane. He's had one awesome year, some bad years, and now two lost years. He had one great year, other than that, he's not be good or healthy.

 

May: I think you are looking at a bullpen arm at this point. But, I'd certainly see how he feels, and give him every opportunity to start. I just would not count on it.

 

Perkins: I'd let him go unless he's awesome this last month. I have my doubts, but if he can pitch, great.

 

Santiago: gone

 

Chargois, et. al in the minors: I would not count on any of them being ready to start the year, nor would I make my bullpen plans based on them being healthy and ML contributors next year. If they are, great! But none of them have proven much other than they can't stay healthy. If they put off fixing the bullpen again, I will be disappointed.

[strumdatjaguar]

I forgot to say:  I thinnk Hughes will find a way to come back and be a bullpen arm in 2018

[ashbury]

I forgot to say:  I thinnk Hughes will find a way to come back and be a bullpen arm in 2018

He might try, and even log a few innings, but count me among the sorrowful ones who will be surprised if he is effective for even a significant portion of the season.

[Danchat]

 

I forgot to say:  I thinnk Hughes will find a way to come back and be a bullpen arm in 2018

I hope that the Twins will have the bullpen at a state in 2018 where there isn't room for Hughes to be a reliever. Right now I would have Hildenberger, Rogers, and Pressly as locks and Boshers and Duffey as most likely on the team. That leaves 2 spots open - one hopefully for a free agent closer (none of these guys should be closing) and another for a potential FA add or young guy like Busenitz/Curtiss/etc. We have plenty of guys who can relieve - we really don't need Hughes in that mix.

[h2oface]

Falvey and Levine have to start making moves that revamps the pitching staff, and put a stamp on the future. This year was wasted. Time to step up to the plate. And for the pen.... Duffey, Hildenberger, Rodgers, Boshers, and especially Pressly and Tonkin..... are all replaceable, and Belisle is fools gold right now...... Fans have become numb and are accepting mediocre or worse as acceptable. The Dodgers entire active staff .... has a lower ERA than the highest pitcher... newly acquired Darvish's 3.81!  I am not inferring that the Twins could have the ability or money to assemble a staff like this....... but come on! Time to clean house and win!

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Two small corrections:

 

1. Maybe should be very lightly pencilled into Gibson's rotation spot.

 

2. It's not Gibson's rotation spot.

 

But really, I question starting May in the rotation. Lots of time for him to show whether he has any feel for breaking stuff, which is often a problem coming out of surgery. I hope he's a lock for the rotation but it's a long road to April.

 

A league average May added to a league average Mejia and Santana, fronted by a good Berrios is actually a starting pitching rotation. We haven't seen one of those in MInnesota for over half a decade.

May underwent TJ in late May, 8 month recovery to Early Feb when pitchers and catchers report?

 

I doubt it

 

More likely July or August 2018 return

[Heezy1323]

 

May underwent TJ in late May, 8 month recovery to Early Feb when pitchers and catchers report?

I doubt it

More likely July or August 2018 return

Agreed. In general, pitchers/teams are becoming more cautious and conservative in their return from TJ, not more aggressive. I think expecting a return before 12 months is likely unrealistic and would be the absolute best case scenario. I would be shocked if he was ready for ST.

[DocBauer]

Hughes: I feel bad for him. He certainly has worked hard to rehab and reinvent himself. But a second similar surgery that is already an iffy, at best, proposition? I think he's done.

 

Perkins: Still a way to go, even beyond his next 3 scheduled outings. I am not optimistic, but, if he can sit in the low 90's, he has a chance as a useful lefty in the pen. Though I doubt he'll ever regain his old form. A strong month and a half? Might be worth a 1 year prove it deal with incentives. Would similar to adding a similar FA.

 

Santiago: Gone.

 

May: Still think he has a shot to claim a rotation spot, while in competition with a number of young arms. But the start of the season may be expecting too much.

 

Burdi: Rehab and further development. A possible mid season addition with no further setbacks. Probably sometime in the second half, maybe September.

 

Chargois: Unless his injury is something worse than reported...and considering some of the bad luck we've had of late I'm holding my breath...no reason he can't be full strength by ST. But missing most of this season, I'd say he's a couple months in to 2018 before his debut.

[drjim]

May underwent TJ in late May, 8 month recovery to Early Feb when pitchers and catchers report?

 

I doubt it

 

More likely July or August 2018 return

His surgery was in March. But I don't think he'll be ready opening day. Probably late April or May. No reason to push him.

[Rosterman]

Perkins Twins fate depends on well he pitches if he comes back. Otherwise, he will be out there looking for another contract. Being a lefty, he should be able to find work as a setup man, depending on hisprice. But we will see.

 

Hopefully Hughes will become an insurance writeoff.

 

Don't see the Twins offering Santiago a contract. And doubt that they should go to arbitration with Gibson at this point.

 

The sad thing about May is that he won't be able to step fulltime into the rotation until 2019. Next year will be an innings buildup year, a well as working out kinks.

 

O'Rourke may not make the 40-man. But he will be invited and looked at if he doesn't sign elsewhere.

 

Twins have to think about Burdi...long and hard. They have to make a decision on Chargois. Maybe he will be the next Zach Jones, remember that guy?

 

 

 

 

[bird]

 

Hughes: If they count on him for starter, they are insane. He's had one awesome year, some bad years, and now two lost years. He had one great year, other than that, he's not be good or healthy.

 

May: I think you are looking at a bullpen arm at this point. But, I'd certainly see how he feels, and give him every opportunity to start. I just would not count on it.

 

Perkins: I'd let him go unless he's awesome this last month. I have my doubts, but if he can pitch, great.

 

Santiago: gone

 

Chargois, et. al in the minors: I would not count on any of them being ready to start the year, nor would I make my bullpen plans based on them being healthy and ML contributors next year. If they are, great! But none of them have proven much other than they can't stay healthy. If they put off fixing the bullpen again, I will be disappointed.

 

If you listened to what Thad Levine had to say in his interview with Gleeman, Mike, you might get a little queasy. He mentioned injured six relief pitchers and said that they fully expected five of them to be contributors to the 2017 bullpen. I might miss one, but I recall Chargois, Burdi, Reed, Bard, O"Rourke, and maybe the last one mentioned was either May or Perkins. If I heard him correctly, he said all six will be healthy and ready to be counted on, then backtracked to say Burdi may need another half-season to rehab. He described the five of them as elite , words of that nature. For what it's worth, Bard and Reed are performing very well right now in Rochester, although we should note with great trepidation that so are Tonkin and Wimmers,,,

 

So in summary, it appears that Falvine's expectations for most of the injured pitchers is a good deal higher than yours and others here. Whether it's these guys or others, I've personally come to the conclusion that things may not be as dire as is commonly thought. Even without a single one of the "injured six", it's not impossible to think that Pressly can be fixed and join Rogers, Duffey, Hildenberger, and even Boshers and then be joined by the likes of Curtiss, Busenitz and Gee. And right there, you have 7-8 guys, none elite of course, and now put Hughes and May in the BP mix along with maybe even Perkins and five injured guys, and I can imagine Falvine adding very little potential bullpen help over the winter.

 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

His surgery was in March. But I don't think he'll be ready opening day. Probably late April or May. No reason to push him.

ahhh crap article was from March and it was about May.... man I gotta look a bit closer

 

 

Thanks for clarifying and agreed, 11-12 months recovery plus 2-3 months of "spring training" puts April to June timeframe.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

If you listened to what Thad Levine had to say in his interview with Gleeman, Mike, you might get a little queasy. He mentioned injured six relief pitchers and said that they fully expected five of them to be contributors to the 2017 bullpen. I might miss one, but I recall Chargois, Burdi, Reed, Bard, O"Rourke, and maybe the last one mentioned was either May or Perkins. If I heard him correctly, he said all six will be healthy and ready to be counted on, then backtracked to say Burdi may need another half-season to rehab. He described the five of them as elite , words of that nature. For what it's worth, Bard and Reed are performing very well right now in Rochester, although we should note with great trepidation that so are Tonkin and Wimmers,,,

 

So in summary, it appears that Falvine's expectations for most of the injured pitchers is a good deal higher than yours and others here.

Levine would never over sell optimism to a group of 100 fans on their podcast would he?