2018 Expectations from 2017 Injured Pitcherrs

[twinssporto]

 

It seems like the Twins will have an unusually high number of pitchers coming back from injury who could help them in 2018:  Perkins, Santiago, Hughes, May, Chargois, Burdi . . .  Whether a pitcher successfully bounces back from injury will be based on the nature of the injury, and the quality of talent and effort from each pitcher.   So who is likely to be washed up and who is not.  Here is my somewhat uncertain

take on three:

Perkins:  May be a LOOGY next year (even the new regime may show loyalty to local boy), but still unlikely.

Santiago:  Gone!

May: Will contribute in the bullpen for most of the season - maybe we'll get more.

 

Great post but you forgot another injured player.  This one is not physical but mental.  Gibson should be sent away immediately.  Doesn't have the mental side of this game down yet.  Not sure he ever will.

[Mike Sixel]

 

If you listened to what Thad Levine had to say in his interview with Gleeman, Mike, you might get a little queasy. He mentioned injured six relief pitchers and said that they fully expected five of them to be contributors to the 2017 bullpen. I might miss one, but I recall Chargois, Burdi, Reed, Bard, O"Rourke, and maybe the last one mentioned was either May or Perkins. If I heard him correctly, he said all six will be healthy and ready to be counted on, then backtracked to say Burdi may need another half-season to rehab. He described the five of them as elite , words of that nature. For what it's worth, Bard and Reed are performing very well right now in Rochester, although we should note with great trepidation that so are Tonkin and Wimmers,,,

 

So in summary, it appears that Falvine's expectations for most of the injured pitchers is a good deal higher than yours and others here. Whether it's these guys or others, I've personally come to the conclusion that things may not be as dire as is commonly thought. Even without a single one of the "injured six", it's not impossible to think that Pressly can be fixed and join Rogers, Duffey, Hildenberger, and even Boshers and then be joined by the likes of Curtiss, Busenitz and Gee. And right there, you have 7-8 guys, none elite of course, and now put Hughes and May in the BP mix along with maybe even Perkins and five injured guys, and I can imagine Falvine adding very little potential bullpen help over the winter.

 

thanks for the update.

 

I would hope they don't repeat the mistake they made this last off season.

[bird]

 

Levine would never over sell optimism to a group of 100 fans on their podcast would he?

 

 

Did you listen to it? I thought he came across as forthright. I think Gleeman and Bonnes came away with the same impression.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Did you listen to it? I thought he came across as forthright. I think Gleeman and Bonnes came away with the same impression.

 

sigh. I might have to break my embargo of Gleeman and listen.....didn't he also comment on Garver? Did he explain why Garver is not up?

[Richie the Rally Goat]

 

Did you listen to it? I thought he came across as forthright. I think Gleeman and Bonnes came away with the same impression.

I did listen - and agree that he came across as straightforward. Putting an optimistic lens on a statement does not make it more or less honest or indirect. it's all shades.

 

I'm sure he has high expectations of that group. He's also proven himself to be somewhat pragmatic, and I doubt that he does not have a better "plan B" in the works for 2018 than he had for 2017. He's just not going to put out a tone that might cast doubt on individual players in the system or the system as a whole.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

If you listened to what Thad Levine had to say in his interview with Gleeman, Mike, you might get a little queasy. He mentioned injured six relief pitchers and said that they fully expected five of them to be contributors to the 2017 bullpen. I might miss one, but I recall Chargois, Burdi, Reed, Bard, O"Rourke, and maybe the last one mentioned was either May or Perkins. If I heard him correctly, he said all six will be healthy and ready to be counted on, then backtracked to say Burdi may need another half-season to rehab. He described the five of them as elite , words of that nature. For what it's worth, Bard and Reed are performing very well right now in Rochester, although we should note with great trepidation that so are Tonkin and Wimmers,,,

 

If that's true, and not just spin -- that is really, really worrisome.  Every one of those guys had already demonstrated pretty extreme volatility, with missed seasons, mediocre performances, etc.  Chargois was the only one who was both healthy and decent in 2016.

 

That's not to say cut them, but don't count on them -- certainly not to the point where you'd pass up on a Greg Holland opportunity, or sign Belisle and call it a day because you want to "reserve" multiple spots for this group to fill.

 

We'll see what they do this winter, though.  That will probably answer more questions about their previous offseason's strategy than anything the FO would say publicly right now.

[drjim]

 

If that's true, and not just spin -- that is really, really worrisome.  Every one of those guys had already demonstrated pretty extreme volatility, with missed seasons, mediocre performances, etc.  Chargois was the only one who was both healthy and decent in 2016.

 

That's not to say cut them, but don't count on them -- certainly not to the point where you'd pass up on a Greg Holland opportunity, or sign Belisle and call it a day because you want to "reserve" multiple spots for this group to fill.

 

We'll see what they do this winter, though.  That will probably answer more questions about their previous offseason's strategy than anything the FO would say publicly right now.

 

I really wouldn't take any of their words on future strategy all that seriously. I would expect them to talk up internal options.

[nicksaviking]

 

sigh. I might have to break my embargo of Gleeman and listen.....didn't he also comment on Garver? Did he explain why Garver is not up?

 

He did talk about Garver but not a timeline. I don't like it but barring injury he probably has to wait until September unless the FO believes Molitor would actually stop writing in Castro, Grossman and Mauer on every lineup. Molitor's managing for his job, you know he's going to sit the rookie if veterans are available to him. And I wouldn't want Garver getting the short end of a platoon split with Castro, I'd want him playing nearly every day.

 

Does your Gleeman embargo stem from that one podcast where he was less than professional to John? I forget what the debate was about but there is one incident that just sticks out vaguely in my mind but still always leaves a lingering sour taste.

[nicksaviking]

 

If that's true, and not just spin -- that is really, really worrisome.  Every one of those guys had already demonstrated pretty extreme volatility, with missed seasons, mediocre performances, etc.  Chargois was the only one who was both healthy and decent in 2016.

 

That's not to say cut them, but don't count on them -- certainly not to the point where you'd pass up on a Greg Holland opportunity, or sign Belisle and call it a day because you want to "reserve" multiple spots for this group to fill.

 

We'll see what they do this winter, though.  That will probably answer more questions about their previous offseason's strategy than anything the FO would say publicly right now.

 

It sounded more to me like Lavine liked how many options there were. Obviously no front office is actually going to expect six new bullpen pieces to emerge next year, particularly injured ones. I mean if you needed one or two to emerge and there were six different high ceiling guys who have a chance to do it, that sounds like pretty good odds to me as well.

 

I didn't take it at all to mean that the team was going to rely on a half dozen injured minor leaguers to make up the bullpen next year. It just sounded like the team liked what they saw in these guys. I mean aside from shredded UCLs.

[diehardtwinsfan]

yeah, I won't lose sleep if they don't get a 'closer', but I'll be a bit more upset if they choose to not get someone they can count on. What's the worst case, you have 6 or 7 arms in the pen you can count on and more in the minors b/c there is no room?  That's when you trade from strength.

[drjim]

 

He did talk about Garver but not a timeline. I don't like it but barring injury he probably has to wait until September unless the FO believes Molitor would actually stop writing in Castro, Grossman and Mauer on every lineup. Molitor's managing for his job, you know he's going to sit the rookie if veterans are available to him. And I wouldn't want Garver getting the short end of a platoon split with Castro, I'd want him playing nearly every day.

 

Does your Gleeman embargo stem from that one podcast where he was less than professional to John? I forget what the debate was about but there is one incident that just sticks out vaguely in my mind but still always leaves a lingering sour taste.

 

Garver wouldn't even catch if he came up right now. Would be an occasional DH. So only getting the short end of a catching platoon would not be the problem.

[Mike Sixel]

 

He did talk about Garver but not a timeline. I don't like it but barring injury he probably has to wait until September unless the FO believes Molitor would actually stop writing in Castro, Grossman and Mauer on every lineup. Molitor's managing for his job, you know he's going to sit the rookie if veterans are available to him. And I wouldn't want Garver getting the short end of a platoon split with Castro, I'd want him playing nearly every day.

 

Does your Gleeman embargo stem from that one podcast where he was less than professional to John? I forget what the debate was about but there is one incident that just sticks out vaguely in my mind but still always leaves a lingering sour taste.

 

goes way back. When his site was growing, and he literally said he wanted more interactions and conversations, I really ramped up posting (like here, since none of my friends really like baseball). He mocked me for that on a chat. Then he mocked me on a podcast for suggesting anyone would want to see them do one live, then did one live a month later......so, ya, mock your fans. Good idea.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

It sounded more to me like Lavine liked how many options there were. Obviously no front office is actually going to expect six new bullpen pieces to emerge next year, particularly injured ones. I mean if you needed one or two to emerge and there were six different high ceiling guys who have a chance to do it, that sounds like pretty good odds to me as well.

Not as good odds as you would think.  The Twins already tried it in 2015 and 2016 with basically the same group and it failed pretty spectacularly both times.

 

My take is, given what we've been starting with, there's not going to be a shortage of available opportunities in the pen. So don't hold back so much on adding more options.

[Mr. Brooks]

Garver wouldn't even catch if he came up right now. Would be an occasional DH. So only getting the short end of a catching platoon would not be the problem.

Well I'm assuming the idea of him platooning with Castro would include Gimenez being cut or traded.

[nicksaviking]

 

Garver wouldn't even catch if he came up right now. Would be an occasional DH. So only getting the short end of a catching platoon would not be the problem.

 

It would be if Garver's playing time was basically just picking up Gimenez's at bats. As I mentioned, I'd be skeptical that Molitor would let Garver cut into Mauer or Grossman's playing time.

[nicksaviking]

 

Not as good odds as you would think.  The Twins already tried it in 2015 and 2016 with basically the same group and it failed pretty spectacularly both times.

 

My take is, given what we've been starting with, there's not going to be a shortage of available opportunities in the pen. So don't hold back so much on adding more options.

 

Lavine didn't say, nor did I get the impression that they were going to ignore free agency because of these guys. Lavine just liked them, which as others have pointed out, what else would he say.

[Dantes929]

 

And where did an average pitching rotation take the Twins?   Not that far.   They need to do better than that.  They need at least one, if not 2 pitchers better than Berrios to say that they are going some place. 

(and the pen is another story altogether)

Starting pitching was not the reason for the Twins postseason woes so I will say it took them to the playoffs  where they had a chance and going way back to 87 a below average rotation took them farther.    Of course it would be nice to have more pitchers better than Berrios.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Lavine didn't say, nor did I get the impression that they were going to ignore free agency because of these guys. Lavine just liked them, which as others have pointed out, what else would he say.

Sure, I was mostly referring to last offseason, when they actually did hold back on adding more options.

[drjim]

 

Well I'm assuming the idea of him platooning with Castro would include Gimenez being cut or traded.

 

Obviously it includes that. My response was another way of saying that's not happening right now.

[howieramone2]

 

It would be if Garver's playing time was basically just picking up Gimenez's at bats. As I mentioned, I'd be skeptical that Molitor would let Garver cut into Mauer or Grossman's playing time.

Let's hope so.

[bird]

 

It sounded more to me like Lavine liked how many options there were. Obviously no front office is actually going to expect six new bullpen pieces to emerge next year, particularly injured ones. I mean if you needed one or two to emerge and there were six different high ceiling guys who have a chance to do it, that sounds like pretty good odds to me as well.

 

I didn't take it at all to mean that the team was going to rely on a half dozen injured minor leaguers to make up the bullpen next year. It just sounded like the team liked what they saw in these guys. I mean aside from shredded UCLs.

 

Precisely how I interpreted his comments. Not overselling, but describing with what I thought was optimism between the guard rails. Like most others, I want one Greg Holland-type winter FA signing at the very least. Bullpen guys are the most fungible asset class.

[nicksaviking]

 

Let's hope so.

 

Yeah, God forbid a right-handed hitter takes away some at bats from a first baseman with a .568 OPS against lefties and a .743 OPS overall.

[Mr. Brooks]

Obviously it includes that. My response was another way of saying that's not happening right now.

Except we don't know that.

We can assume the FO likes Gimenez, but it wouldn't shock me if he was traded tomorrow.

[drjim]

 

Except we don't know that.
We can assume the FO likes Gimenez, but it wouldn't shock me if he was traded tomorrow.

 

I would be quite impressed if they traded Gimenez tomorrow after the team battled back to 1.5 games out.

[Mr. Brooks]

I would be quite impressed if they traded Gimenez tomorrow after the team battled back to 1.5 games out.

Well, I understand catchers value is probably the most difficult to measure. That said though, Gimenez has 0.1 bWAR on the year.

Cutting/trading him is unlikely to affect our w/l record the rest of the way.

[S.]

I understand that its fun to compete and watch good baseball, and I'm certainly enjoying it more than the last few seasons, but c'mon, does anyone actually think this team can compete in the playoffs? Our entire pitching staff only has 2 pitchers that could really be considered above average. We regularly trot out lineups with multiple players who wouldn't even make a 25 man roster on other teams. We've been completely slaughtered by the teams who will undoubtedly be making the playoffs. Go compare the Dodgers or Astros or Red Sox rosters to ours and you're going to see an uphill battle in every pitching matchup for us, and their lineups are drastically better. Hell, the Dodgers have a full rotation worth of pitchers that I'd trust more than Ervin or Berrios. And after those two, we don't have a single starting pitcher or relief pitcher who is even remotely trustable.

 

Yeah, I understand that if we make it to the playoffs, crazy things could happen and there is some minuscule chance we might make a push, but that chance is far too low to be trading away prospects for. If we can get a RP or two for cheap to help us out down the stretch, that'd be great, but it'd be crazy to trade away players that could help us in 2018/19/20 for some rentals this year.

[gman]

An injured reliver that appears to be missing from the lists is Jay.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

An injured reliver that appears to be missing from the lists is Jay.

maybe on purpose?