Half Measures

[DaveW]

Man, I really really want to give Falvey and Levine the benefit of the doubt, but man, this deadline was a disaster.

I am sick and tired of year in and year out of the Twins never fully committing to selling, buying or rebuilding.

If the plan was to actually SELL, then Santana, Dozier, Kintzler, Garcia, Castro and more all should have been unloaded. If the plan wasn't to sell, then there was no reason to trade Garcia and Kintzler for a guy who may be a #4/#5 if all things break right, and a bullpen arm potentially. (Meanwhile we already did give up Yonan for Garcia to begin with)

As a Twins fan this is especially frustrating, and if I were Dozier, I would be straight up pissed. Yes, the Twins prob weren't going to make the playoffs this year, but they were only a few games out, trading Kintzler (for scraps) now assures them that their pen has nobody that can close out games, and they are more or less doomed to finish in 4th or 5th in the division now. Meanwhile, they didn't do anything to make the 2018,2019,2020 teams better in any significant way.

Half measures was the Terry Ryan way, and unfortunately it appears to be the same thus far into this "new" regime.

[Loosey]

I don't think any of those trade pieces you are referring to are worth much to other teams.  Dozier and Santana are both under contract next season so there really was no rush to trade them for pennies on the dollar when they can attempt to get more in the off-season.  

 

I'm sure they were trying to get as much value as possible but if the current return on Santana is a B- prospect stuck in AA is worth it now?  Why not get that same prospect in the off-season?  

 

Few teams sell their entire roster at the trade deadline.  And if you look back at the history the ones who do usually have it backfire on them.

[drjim]

Why would they sell players that can help next year when returns clearly weren't good?

 

I would have preferred a minor buy over a minor sell, but there are in a position to not do anything too drastic.

[gunnarthor]

If Gray got 1 top 100 prospect, Santana's value was pretty low. Dozier was only worth De Leon. It's ok to keep those guys instead of selling for 50 cents on the dollar.

[Doomtints]

I think they did a great job. They upgraded Ynoa to two better prospects.

 

Kintzler's loss will be felt this year and they will have to address it during the offseason.

 

Dozier/Santana still have another year around these parts, so it only makes sense to trade them for immediate contributors. That's a tough trade to pull off. Contenders don't sell at the trade deadline, talent swap trades usually happen during the offseason.

 

If it turns out as you predict -- a couple more #4-#5 starters or relievers -- isn't this where the Twins are lacking?

[TonyInOmaha]

I would agree with you if Santana, Dozier, and Castro weren't under contract after this season.   Not trading them makes the 2018 and 2019 Twins better.    Plus, who's to say any of those players won't be shopped around after the season?

[Mike Sixel]

 

If Gray got 1 top 100 prospect, Santana's value was pretty low. Dozier was only worth De Leon. It's ok to keep those guys instead of selling for 50 cents on the dollar.

 

Gray got three top 100 prospects according to Fangraphs pre-season rankings.

[alarp33]

 

Man, I really really want to give Falvey and Levine the benefit of the doubt, but man, this deadline was a disaster.

I am sick and tired of year in and year out of the Twins never fully committing to selling, buying or rebuilding.

If the plan was to actually SELL, then Santana, Dozier, Kintzler, Garcia, Castro and more all should have been unloaded. If the plan wasn't to sell, then there was no reason to trade Garcia and Kintzler for a guy who may be a #4/#5 if all things break right, and a bullpen arm potentially. (Meanwhile we already did give up Yonan for Garcia to begin with)

As a Twins fan this is especially frustrating, and if I were Dozier, I would be straight up pissed. Yes, the Twins prob weren't going to make the playoffs this year, but they were only a few games out, trading Kintzler (for scraps) now assures them that their pen has nobody that can close out games, and they are more or less doomed to finish in 4th or 5th in the division now. Meanwhile, they didn't do anything to make the 2018,2019,2020 teams better in any significant way.

Half measures was the Terry Ryan way, and unfortunately it appears to be the same thus far into this "new" regime.

 

I'm not following this at all.  Why do you have to trade guys who are potentially going to be a part of 2018? What is wrong with trading 2 free agents to be? 

 

 

[drivlikejehu]

It's not credible to suggest improving the 2018 team by trading away Santana and Dozier for peanuts. The front office's intentions couldn't be any more clear - they don't think this is the year but hope to contend in the near future. 

[Vanimal46]

It's not like they were refusing to answer the phone about these players.... They were floated out as potential trade chips by most of the reputable reporters out there. 

The market for bats was really that bad this season. We've been trying to fit this square peg in a round hole trading Dozier for the last 1.5 years. Maybe it's time to accept that there's a VERY limited market for him, and it's time to move on from the fantasy of trading him for MLB-ready SP. 

[Thrylos]

I really do not understand the issue people are having with Enns, and why they think that his ceiling is that of a journeyman reliever.   He did have injury set backs and was drafted out of College, so 26 is AAA is actually slightly below league average

 

Career AAA:
21 G, 17 GS, 104-1/3 IP, 8-3, 87 K (7.5 K/9), 36 BB (3.1 BB/9), 2.07 ERA, 1.083 WHIP

this season:

7 G, 7 GS, 39-1/3 IP, 1-1, 37 K (8.5 K/9), 10 BB (2.3 BB/9), 2.29 ERA, 1.017 WHIP

 

Here is Berrios' career AAA numbers:

 

36 G, 36 GS, 229-2/3 IP, 19-8, 250 K (9.8 K/9), 61 BB (2.4 BB/9), 2.51 ERA, 0.980 WHIP

 

Not a huge difference.  Yes Berrios is younger, but this is not about age, it is about effectiveness.  Enns is pretty much a MLB-ready starter with mid-end of rotation potential and 5+ seasons of team control.  Pretty much what Garcia was, without the youth and team control.
 

 

[nicksaviking]

I didn't like how nearly every difficult decision Terry Ryan had to make saw him straddling the fence. This doesn't seem the same though. I think the half measure in this situation, and the one that Ryan likely would have taken, would have been to keep Garcia and Kintzler and do nothing else letting the team try to play for a .500 record.

 

We saw the return Sonny Gray got, Santana would have gotten much, much less and we already know Dozier's value on the trade market which is pretty clearly next to nothing, just as it was last off season. Except for people who absolutely have to have action right now, there was little downside to trying to move those two this off season when more teams might be interested. You still might not get a good return, but it's such a little risk to take.

 

Or as some posters prefer, keep them and add around them. Either way, this trade deadline wasn't a half measure.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'm all in favor of half measures, provided the front office starts making sweeping changes this offseason.

 

Add one solid SP and two good bullpen arms at the very least. Put that team on the field in 2018. Good things might happen.

 

Both Dozier and Santana can help the 2018 team win and if this front office makes moves to help that 2018 team, retaining both players could be the difference between contending in 2018 and contending in 2020.

[Winston Smith]

Just because you want to sell doesn't mean there has to be somebody out there that wants to buy!

[Mike Sixel]

 

I didn't like how nearly every difficult decision Terry Ryan had to make saw him straddling the fence. This doesn't seem the same though. I think the half measure in this situation, and the one that Ryan likely would have taken, would have been to keep Garcia and Kintzler and do nothing else letting the team try to play for a .500 record.

 

We saw the return Sonny Gray got, Santana would have gotten much, much less and we already know Dozier's value on the trade market which is pretty clearly next to nothing, just as it was last off season. Except for people who absolutely have to have action right now, there was little downside to trying to move those two this off season when more teams might be interested. You still might not get a good return, but it's such a little risk to take.

 

Sonny Gray returned 3 top 100 players on Fangraphs list.....and yet people keep typing that Gray was stolen.....Mateo is OPSing over .900 in AA, and will be a starting SS or CF (think what we want Lewis to be, basically), and if one of hte others recovers, that's a good trade.

 

I'm sympathetic to Dave's overall point, and that is that the FO needs to decide where it is, and act that way. It's certainly possible they are doing that, but it's hard to blame fans who have watched this team go half way for decades being annoyed when it appears that might be happening still/again. But like Nick, I don't think that happened here. For some reason, no one values Dozier, so trading him appears not to make sense right now. Santana? We don't know what they were offered, or what their off season plan is. If they don't add a legit SP this off season, they should trade Santana. Either try to win, or don't. So, while sympathetic to Dave's feelings, I am not yet ready to judge this FO.

[clutterheart]

 

 

Man, I really really want to give Falvey and Levine the benefit of the doubt, but man, this deadline was a disaster.

I am sick and tired of year in and year out of the Twins never fully committing to selling, buying or rebuilding

 

When the Indians traded Westbrook they netted Corey Kluber.  At the time Kluber was an older prospect and he was thought to be a #4 ish pitcher/inning eater.  Yet he had outstanding peripheral numbers. good SO /BB, good FIP and good breaking stuff.   So some prospect watchers were calling him a huge breakout candidate.  

 

Twins just netted 4 pitchers by giving up guys who probably were not going to be on the 2018 Twins.  For the most part they all have peripheral numbers to make them interesting potential breakout candidates.    

At the time, Falvey wasn't a key part of Cleveland's FO.  But he was around the people who made the decision and I am sure he learned a bit from them.  And I am not saying that these guys are going to turn into Cy Young caliber pitchers.  

 

But I do think we ought to give the new FO some time to see if they are good at their jobs.  If just one of these guys breaks out, 2017 will look to be a turning point.  If they don't, was anything really lost?  

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

At the time, Falvey wasn't a key part of Cleveland's FO.  But he was around the people who made the decision and I am sure he learned a bit from them.  And I am not saying that these guys are going to turn into Cy Young caliber pitchers. 

This is something I'd like to know more about but haven't found any detailed information.

 

Falvey was a key part of Cleveland's front office during the Kluber (and subsequent) acquisitions, but that doesn't mean he was involved in those particular acquisitions. On the other hand, he's been given a lot of credit for the pitching staff Cleveland put on the field in recent years, which leads me to believe he had a hand in those acquisitions.

 

Anyway, I don't have any answers but if someone out there does, I'd love to read them.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

This is something I'd like to know more about but haven't found any detailed information.

 

Falvey was a key part of Cleveland's front office during the Kluber (and subsequent) acquisitions, but that doesn't mean he was involved in those particular acquisitions. On the other hand, he's been given a lot of credit for the pitching staff Cleveland put on the field in recent years, which leads me to believe he had a hand in those acquisitions.

 

Anyway, I don't have any answers but if someone out there does, I'd love to read them.

 

Whether he was integral in the acquisition or simply working in the FO, I think it is worth noting that he would have been well aware of how they went about identifying that talent... That's probably the more important piece.

 

But you really cannot argue with the methodology. I don't think Ryan and company would have ever put that much emphasis on the peripherals... walk rate maybe, but definitely not K rate.

[Kwak]

I heard a quote on TV (Jalen and Jacoby)  "...you're not just trading talent--you're trading salaries too."  Don't forget the roster slots either!  It's tempting to say "trade ___" but for what? Other teams over value their players just like the Twins (you?).  Plus, there are the implications of roster, salary, and "next season".

[Doomtints]

 

but definitely not K rate.

 

How is that definite?

 

Ryan's criteria was "cheap" and "will actually talk to us knowing we're so cheap."  If a peak era Johan Santana fit that criteria Ryan would have signed him....

[bluechipper]

I'm not sure how Dozier, or any other player on the roster, can be upset. The FO was buying, and then the team fell apart. It's on them.

[Steve Lein]

Well, I'm not sure what you expected to get for Kintzler.

 

Sure, he's a "closer" on the Twins, but a set-up guy at best on almost any other club, probably more like a middle-reliever on many as well. He also is just a 2-month rental.

 

I didn't think the Nationals were a good fit because they have so little for pitching prospects, but I'd venture they did the best they could of their options. Lot of people like things about the guy they did get.

 

Sounds like the asking price for Santana wasn't met, so what good would have accepting them done? You would have made yourself worse for the future, likely.

 

I don't know, I can't fault the team for these decisions. I don't think the window of competing was open for the Twins yet, so I like what they did.

 

Now, I think we have a complaint to be made about the Sonny Gray trade - I think the Twins could have made a very competitive package to what the Athletics got, and one that I wouldn't have been crushed over as a fan of all the Twins prospects.

 

Dustin Fowler was the top guy in the Yankees system that went, and he's around Gonsalves/Romero territory on National Top 100 lists. Then you're talking Wander Javier and Tyler Jay type guys for the other two pieces.

 

I would have met those demands. It was the Gordon and Romero/Gonsalves + scenarios being talked about that gave me pause.

 

But again, I like the prospects of 2018 a lot better than I liked 2017's. I think they were smart here.

[SF Twins Fan]

With the new FO in place this season was all about building out the FO i.e. analytics department, evaluations and clearing out players from the 40 man that won't be helpful moving forward.

 

It does sound like the FO has increased the number of employees in the analytics department but they haven't made any changes that I'm aware of.  Mainly because from reports they wanted to give everyone a clean slate to evaluate them.  

 

Now that we're past the trade deadline we've seen the FO make moves and be decisive on which players they want to keep and have gotten rid of players they don't want on the 40 man moving forward.  We'll see what other moves they make, but I'd assume at least 3 other players will be gone by the end of the season.  Most likely Colon, Gimenez and Belisle.

 

To me the real moves will start to happen once the season is over.  They will have had a full season to evaluate the entire organization from top to bottom and I'd put money on changes happening in the FO and along the coaching staffs as well.  The Twins now have a very deep farm system, even though it doesn't have a ton of top end talent it is very deep with quality players.  I'd also put money on some trades happening this offseason with the amount of starting pitching the Twins will have at AA and AAA.  Individually they might not fetch a ton but I could see them being included as part of a package to get a better pitcher.

 

As other people have said there was no reason to get rid of Santana, Dozier and Castro if the price wasn't right and since they can help the team next season.  Let the season play out, hopefully a few more prospects are promoted to AAA and to the Twins, and let's see what happens this offseason.  If the Twins sign or trade for a #1/#2 in the offseason and go into next season with the new pitcher, Santana, Berries, Mejia and someone else that is a very good rotation to begin the year especially with all of the options they should have at the AAA.

[Mr. Brooks]

I really do not understand the issue people are having with Enns, and why they think that his ceiling is that of a journeyman reliever. He did have injury set backs and was drafted out of College, so 26 is AAA is actually slightly below league average

 

Career AAA:

21 G, 17 GS, 104-1/3 IP, 8-3, 87 K (7.5 K/9), 36 BB (3.1 BB/9), 2.07 ERA, 1.083 WHIP

this season:

7 G, 7 GS, 39-1/3 IP, 1-1, 37 K (8.5 K/9), 10 BB (2.3 BB/9), 2.29 ERA, 1.017 WHIP

 

Here is Berrios' career AAA numbers:

 

36 G, 36 GS, 229-2/3 IP, 19-8, 250 K (9.8 K/9), 61 BB (2.4 BB/9), 2.51 ERA, 0.980 WHIP

 

Not a huge difference. Yes Berrios is younger, but this is not about age, it is about effectiveness. Enns is pretty much a MLB-ready starter with mid-end of rotation potential and 5+ seasons of team control. Pretty much what Garcia was, without the youth and team control.

 

Those numbers are only even remotely close if you are only looking at ERA.

Look at the k and bb rates. Miles apart.

[DaveW]

I'm not sure how Dozier, or any other player on the roster, can be upset. The FO was buying, and then the team fell apart. It's on them.

Were they actually "buying"?

 

They completely failed all season long to fix the bullpen at any point. That is the most frustrating thing to me, so many guys were left on the roster for far far far too long in that pen.

[darin617]

What's the point of a fire sale if all you get back are a bunch of minor leaguers? All that will do is give you more players that will be needed to be protected unless they are really young and if that is the case they won't be ready anytime soon so that won't help a quick rebuild.

[DaveW]

What's the point of a fire sale if all you get back are a bunch of minor leaguers? All that will do is give you more players that will be needed to be protected unless they are really young and if that is the case they won't be ready anytime soon so that won't help a quick rebuild.

Seems to have worked out ok for the Cubs and astros..... everyday that goes by, dozierand Santana lose more and more value...

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

What's the point of a fire sale if all you get back are a bunch of minor leaguers? All that will do is give you more players that will be needed to be protected unless they are really young and if that is the case they won't be ready anytime soon so that won't help a quick rebuild.

 

well, generally winnings teams don't want to trade away the guys that got them there. Honestly, I'm trying to figure out the angst here. They were out of it, and traded away guys that won't be around next year. They aren't punting on 2018, just giving themselves more options down the road.

 

I'll echo what others said. They still need pitching in 2018, so yes, they need to get it (both starters and relievers), and that needs to be done this offseason.

[nicksaviking]

 

Seems to have worked out ok for the Cubs and astros..... everyday that goes by, dozierand Santana lose more and more value...

 

I think the market has already confirmed they have marginal value at best and it likely hasn't changed since last winter. Certainly they have much, much less value than us Twins fans would like. Dozier plays an undesirable position and Santana likely is more expensive, older, and strikes out too few batters to move the needle.

[KirbyDome89]

I can understand the view that the value Dozier and Santana provide the Twins next season is greater in the short term than the players they would receive in return. However, if the Twins can't sell because "their value isn't high," when is it expected to go up? Is Dozier going to have another 40+ HR season? Is Santana going to start 2018 like he did this season? Unlikely. The chance to sell either of them at peak value has come and gone. 

 

The disappointment isn't about what they received. I don't think anybody can complain too much about the return for Kintzler, Murphy, and Garcia. What is disappointing is that it feels like once again the Twins are in neutral rather than moving in a direction. Personally I would've liked them to either be big sellers or go after a starting pitcher. That isn't about wanting action, it's about a franchise that has sputtered along for 5+ years finally drawing a hard line. 

 

It's true that big changes this offseason can make up for another lackluster trade deadline and hopefully it does, but wasn't this deadline supposed to make up for the previous inactivity during the past offseason? Also wasn't the previous offseason supposed to bring big changes after the disaster that was 2016? I get that this FO hasn't been in place for a full season yet, so I guess they still getting the benefit of the doubt but I agree with the sentiment that so far they haven't done a whole lot to differentiate themselves from the previous regime. I believe the displeasure with the way the season/trade deadline has played out is warranted.