Half Measures

[drjim]

 

I can understand the view that the value Dozier and Santana provide the Twins next season is greater in the short term than the players they would receive in return. However, if the Twins can't sell because "their value isn't high," when is it expected to go up? Is Dozier going to have another 40+ HR season? Is Santana going to start 2018 like he did this season? Unlikely. The chance to sell either of them at peak value has come and gone. 

 

The disappointment isn't about what they received. I don't think anybody can complain too much about the return for Kintzler, Murphy, and Garcia. What is disappointing is that it feels like once again the Twins are in neutral rather than moving in a direction. Personally I would've liked them to either be big sellers or go after a starting pitcher. That isn't about wanting action, it's about a franchise that has sputtered along for 5+ years finally drawing a hard line. 

 

It's true that big changes this offseason can make up for another lackluster trade deadline and hopefully it does, but wasn't this deadline supposed to make up for the previous inactivity during the past offseason? Also wasn't the previous offseason supposed to bring big changes after the disaster that was 2016? I get that this FO hasn't been in place for a full season yet, so I guess they still getting the benefit of the doubt but I agree with the sentiment that so far they haven't done a whole lot to differentiate themselves from the previous regime. I believe the displeasure with the way the season/trade deadline has played out is warranted.

 

While I understand the desire to theoretically maximize return, the immediate result would be to create holes that they would have to subsequently expend resources to fill in the offseason. The Twins should absolutely plan on competing next year.

[mazeville]

I think screaming at the new GMs for "half measures" after one - one! - trade deadline is ridiculous.

 

The fact is, Brian Dozier isn't getting the trade offers we think he should receive. I'm personally glad they didn't settle on Dozier for Jose DeLeon, given what he's done in AAA this year.

 

And they can always trade Ervin Santana this offseason.

 

And remember, the Twins were until recently in contention for the AL Central and would have been stoned if they traded away players when they were close to first place. They then traded two free agents, one of whom was a flip after just one start, and involved the Twins taking on salary. That's the type of aggressive move the previous regime hated.

 

Give these guys some time. If they continue taking "half measures" this offseason, then by all means they should be worth some complaints. 

 

I hate -- HATE -- half measures, too. But I don't think this counts.

[bighat]

 

I really do not understand the issue people are having with Enns, and why they think that his ceiling is that of a journeyman reliever.   He did have injury set backs and was drafted out of College, so 26 is AAA is actually slightly below league average

 

Career AAA:
21 G, 17 GS, 104-1/3 IP, 8-3, 87 K (7.5 K/9), 36 BB (3.1 BB/9), 2.07 ERA, 1.083 WHIP

this season:

7 G, 7 GS, 39-1/3 IP, 1-1, 37 K (8.5 K/9), 10 BB (2.3 BB/9), 2.29 ERA, 1.017 WHIP

 

Here is Berrios' career AAA numbers:

 

36 G, 36 GS, 229-2/3 IP, 19-8, 250 K (9.8 K/9), 61 BB (2.4 BB/9), 2.51 ERA, 0.980 WHIP

 

Not a huge difference.  Yes Berrios is younger, but this is not about age, it is about effectiveness.  Enns is pretty much a MLB-ready starter with mid-end of rotation potential and 5+ seasons of team control.  Pretty much what Garcia was, without the youth and team control.
 

 

It is about age, though.  What we all want is a 22 year-old AAA pitcher who is ready to step up and start MLB games.  That was what we got in Mejia last year, and while we've experienced growing pains I think he has a future in the rotation. 

 

Trying to sell fans like me on a 26 year-old minor leaguer is like putting lipstick on a pig.  Littell is younger but he hasn't even got his feet wet at AA yet.  That's not what we wanted to get by trading a veteran starter to the Yankees. 

 

I'm not suggesting the Twins could have done better...I think they took the best offer they had.  Sadly, I think the reality is that the Twins don't have much that other teams want.  Falvine got what they could, but it was disappointing.

[alarp33]

 

It is about age, though.  What we all want is a 22 year-old AAA pitcher who is ready to step up and start MLB games.  That was what we got in Mejia last year, and while we've experienced growing pains I think he has a future in the rotation. 

 

Trying to sell fans like me on a 26 year-old minor leaguer is like putting lipstick on a pig.  Littell is younger but he hasn't even got his feet wet at AA yet.  That's not what we wanted to get by trading a veteran starter to the Yankees. 

 

Mejia was 23 when the Twins traded for him.  He had started 7 games at AAA.  You say Littell hasn't gotten his feet wet at AA, but he's started 7 games there.  What's the difference.  

 

By the way, Littell is 21 years old, almost 2.5 years younger than Mejia.  

 

If you want to complain about a trade, have at it.  But it would help if you stuck to facts.  

 

BTW, no mention that this veteran pitcher the Twins traded to the Yankees was acquired just 10 days prior for a hell of a lot less return?

[Rosterman]

As someone said, just because you want to sell, you have to have a buyer.

 

That they unloaded two players that will be free agents and that they really weren't going to resign was for the best. They can now revisit these guys and get them cheaper if the market isn't there for them, compared to the restrictions they would have if the guys left you as a free agent.

 

We now enter August. This is when you can jettison some players and get salary relief and maybe a prospect in return. Time to say good-bye to fringe guys who don't figure into 2018 plans...if you have someone you wish to try and replace them with. I do hope the Twins stay away from waiver wire claims themselves and just stick with promoting prospects.

 

But then we have 40-man roster issues. If you are on the 40-man, 25 of you have to be ready to play in the major leagues. It's nice if everyone else is capable of time in the majors. This year the Twins have six guys on the cusp. Garver should be here in September. Palka needs to bust his butt after his disabled stint. We already saw Rosario and Jorge who are still a year away. Romero is also a year away and it would be nice to see him. Vielma should take the place of any of our abundance of SS that could be jettisoned in August. We need to see WHY these guys were 40-man protected (shades of Adam Brett Walker). And if there are prospects that contribute, that may not be longterm (think Slegers for one), you still should looksee. Can they give you whatever any of these minor league free agents did?

[DocBauer]

While I was in the neutral or small buy mode, considering where they were sitting, I like what they accomplished. Who knows how good any of these guys will turn out to be, but there is some potential there.

 

Belisle and Giminez will probably be gone in August in small deals.

 

By Santana is still quite good and helps this club next season. Right now, there just doesn't seem be be a good market for Dozier. I really like Garver and have hopes for him, but why trade Castro? Run with rookie Garver and nobody else?

 

The fundamental player core for this team is here, with a couple solid pieces available at AAA and AA, and only going to get better. There are a few solid arms, with more on the way, and more needed.

 

What this team needs is another quality SP and a couple nice bullpen arms to go with what is already here. They don't need a complete sell off and continued rebuild.

[Mike Sixel]

 

While I was in the neutral or small buy mode, considering where they were sitting, I like what they accomplished. Who knows how good any of these guys will turn out to be, but there is some potential there.

Belisle and Giminez will probably be gone in August in small deals.

By Santana is still quite good and helps this club next season. Right now, there just doesn't seem be be a good market for Dozier. I really like Garver and have hopes for him, but why trade Castro? Run with rookie Garver and nobody else?

The fundamental player core for this team is here, with a couple solid pieces available at AAA and AA, and only going to get better. There are a few solid arms, with more on the way, and more needed.

What this team needs is another quality SP and a couple nice bullpen arms to go with what is already here. They don't need a complete sell off and continued rebuild.

 

they also need to hit, much, much better. While the core might be here, they need to play better.

 

And, 1B, DH, and 2B are open in just 1.5 years....

[Sweetwater]

Totally disagree with the OP. Ryan likely wouldn't have done the Garcia or Kintzler trades. Those were savvy. This FO is more proactive while being realistic about the chances of immediate contention.

[drock2190]

 

If Gray got 1 top 100 prospect, Santana's value was pretty low. Dozier was only worth De Leon. It's ok to keep those guys instead of selling for 50 cents on the dollar.

 

You think Calhoun was offered in that deal? He's had a pretty good year, albeit he only really profiles as a DH. 

 

So would you do a Calhoun Dozier swap today?

[drjim]

Totally disagree with the OP. Ryan likely wouldn't have done the Garcia or Kintzler trades. Those were savvy. This FO is more proactive while being realistic about the chances of immediate contention.

Bring back Ryan!

[KirbyDome89]

 

While I understand the desire to theoretically maximize return, the immediate result would be to create holes that they would have to subsequently expend resources to fill in the offseason. The Twins should absolutely plan on competing next year.

Like I said, the argument certainly has merit. I was in the pro trade camp, but there is no doubt next season would be tough if they sold Ervin. Right now I see a team that needed to significantly outperform their peripheral stats, and needed Ervin to have a career year just to melt down near the trade deadline. They certainly can compete in 2018 and I hope they do, but I'm not banking on another year like this from Ervin, and unless they finally deliver on the sweeping changes this offseason I wouldn't consider a playoff berth likely. Based on what we've seen from this FO so far it's questionable at best whether those changes occur. 

[Squirrel]

 

While I understand the desire to theoretically maximize return, the immediate result would be to create holes that they would have to subsequently expend resources to fill in the offseason. The Twins should absolutely plan on competing next year.

I don't think it would create too much of a hole to trade Dozier; nor do I think it would result in the team having to expend much resources to fill that slot. Santana, on the other hand ... two very different scenarios imo. And the call of 'Trade them, trade them' and lumping them together is very shortsighted.

[Kwak]

Santana and Dozier can be traded next July.  Neither will come with a guaranteed contract (deadweight!) attached.  A trade will be easier to make and fetch just as much (likely more) than this past July.  It would be a pipe dream to think that any other Twins player in his 30's would be attractive to another team.  The stink of being on a 100+ loss team takes awhile to wash away. 

[DocBauer]

they also need to hit, much, much better. While the core might be here, they need to play better.

 

And, 1B, DH, and 2B are open in just 1.5 years....

Yep. Would appear the depth is there to replace Dozier, even now. And as I've mentioned elsewhere, would really like to see a FA/trade to acquire a quality 1B to play with Mauer, alternate DH duty, and take over full time in 2019.

[yarnivek1972]

Yep. Would appear the depth is there to replace Dozier, even now. And as I've mentioned elsewhere, would really like to see a FA/trade to acquire a quality 1B to play with Mauer, alternate DH duty, and take over full time in 2019.

Some reason that couldn't be Dozier? He has the power for first. I'm really not sure there will be a lot of 20 HR hitters available on the market.

[drjim]

Some reason that couldn't be Dozier? He has the power for first. I'm really not sure there will be a lot of 20 HR hitters available on the market.

I'd bank on Sano at 1B in 2019.

[DocBauer]

Some reason that couldn't be Dozier? He has the power for first. I'm really not sure there will be a lot of 20 HR hitters available on the market.

I've advocated for that previously. I think his bat plays fine there, he has tons of experience on the right side, would seem to have the range, etc. The one objection I've heard is his lack of height as hes only 6'...maybe...and I suppose that could be a concern.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I just don't get complaining about the recent acquisitions. When the Twins were good, every year they had an arm come up and perform. That was one of the pillars of those contending teams. They had guys like Slowey, Blackburn, Baker, Silva, et al step up and fill a need at the league minimum.

 

Yeah, those players turned back into pumpkins after a season or three but the Twins getting $500k guys to fill out the back of the rotation helped them into the postseason on a regular basis.

 

I don't see the downside here. The Twins lost Kintzler, sure, but was he a guy we wanted back in the first place? Maybe if he signs for two years, $14m but I don't know if he'll be had for that price (and there's nothing stopping the Twins from offering him that in November).

 

This team badly needs pitching to compete over a full season. If even one of the guys they acquired gives them back of the rotation performance for two seasons, that could be the difference between 82 wins and packing it in on October 1st or 86 wins and a postseason berth.

 

With these guys now in the system, that means the front office might be able to save $7m or so on yet another Correia/Pelfrey type (gag) and put that into a legitimate pitcher who can post 3+ WAR over several seasons. Or it means one of those guys steps up in June and the Twins don't need to acquire another starter at the deadline, allowing them to burn prospects on another position of need.

 

Flexibility is good. Deep farm systems are good.

[Mike Sixel]

I just don't get complaining about the recent acquisitions. When the Twins were good, every year they had an arm come up and perform. That was one of the pillars of those contending teams. They had guys like Slowey, Blackburn, Baker, Silva, et al step up and fill a need at the league minimum.

 

Yeah, those players turned back into pumpkins after a season or three but the Twins getting $500k guys to fill out the back of the rotation helped them into the postseason on a regular basis.

 

I don't see the downside here. The Twins lost Kintzler, sure, but was he a guy we wanted back in the first place? Maybe if he signs for two years, $14m but I don't know if he'll be had for that price (and there's nothing stopping the Twins from offering him that in November).

 

This team badly needs pitching to compete over a full season. If even one of the guys they acquired gives them back of the rotation performance for two seasons, that could be the difference between 82 wins and packing it in on October 1st or 86 wins and a postseason berth.

 

With these guys now in the system, that means the front office might be able to save $7m or so on yet another Correia/Pelfrey type (gag) and put that into a legitimate pitcher who can post 3+ WAR over several seasons. Or it means one of those guys steps up in June and the Twins don't need to acquire another starter at the deadline, allowing them to burn prospects on another position of need.

 

Flexibility is good. Deep farm systems are good.

Given they refuse to call up the future at all, why should I assume they have any confidence in the future?

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Deep farm systems are also good for making trades. Did the Twins even contact Oakland about Gray?

[adorduan]

 

Given they refuse to call up the future at all, why should I assume they have any confidence in the future?

Yup. Every time they run Colon out there makes this point.

[yarnivek1972]

I've advocated for that previously. I think his bat plays fine there, he has tons of experience on the right side, would seem to have the range, etc. The one objection I've heard is his lack of height as hes only 6'...maybe...and I suppose that could be a concern.

Mientkiewicz was only 6'0". Yeah, I'm aware he was listed at 6'2". I have a picture of myself with him somewhere. I'm a hair under 6'0". He was barely taller than me.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Given they refuse to call up the future at all, why should I assume they have any confidence in the future?

I don't like the current state of the pitching staff but the prospects will get here at some point. I wish that was now, but the front office disagrees with me on that subject.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I don't like the current state of the pitching staff but the prospects will get here at some point. I wish that was now, but the front office disagrees with me on that subject.

 

If anything, it should show us that Ryan wasn't exactly behaving out of the ordinary when he did the exact same things. Like it or not, they seem convinced that Gonsalves and company are not ready. I don't get it either, but I'm not a baseball talent evaluator... all I can do is drool over the stat lines.

[yarnivek1972]

If anything, it should show us that Ryan wasn't exactly behaving out of the ordinary when he did the exact same things. Like it or not, they seem convinced that Gonsalves and company are not ready. I don't get it either, but I'm not a baseball talent evaluator... all I can do is drool over the stat lines.

These same talent evaluators felt Felix Jorge was ready and that Byron Buxton was a good fit for the 3 spot. What makes their judgement beyond reproach?

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

These same talent evaluators felt Felix Jorge was ready and that Byron Buxton was a good fit for the 3 spot. What makes their judgement beyond reproach?

Buxton at 3 was a Molitor thing...

 

I don't think anyone said Jorge was ready either. He may have been the best option, but that's a far cry from being ready.

[yarnivek1972]

Buxton at 3 was a Molitor thing...

 

I don't think anyone said Jorge was ready either. He may have been the best option, but that's a far cry from being ready.

The word from the insiders on this site at the beginning of the season indicated that Buxton third was a Falvey dictum.

 

If the logic is that the Twins aren't bringing up Gonsalves, etc because the FO feels they aren't ready then the same logic indicates that Jorge was brought up because the thought was he was ready. You are trying to have it both ways. That whiffs of towing the company line.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

These same talent evaluators felt Felix Jorge was ready and that Byron Buxton was a good fit for the 3 spot. What makes their judgement beyond reproach?

I don't think anyone is saying their judgment is beyond reproach - after all, I disagree with their rotation decisions and diehard appears to feel the same way - but it's not as if I'm working with anything beyond a stat line.

 

This is one of those situations where I wish the front office would be a little more transparent. Just give us a single sentence about why Colon is starting games for this team in August. Maybe they have a legit reason. Maybe they don't. I'd just like to know a little more about their thought process.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

If the logic is that the Twins aren't bringing up Gonsalves, etc because the FO feels they aren't ready then the same logic indicates that Jorge was brought up because the thought was he was ready. You are trying to have it both ways. That whiffs of towing the company line.

Not to be a grammar snob but it's "toe the line" (personal pet peeve of mine).

 

Anyway, what choice did they have with Jorge? Or are we talking about the old front office? Anyway, the mistake with Polanco was made 6-7 years ago in rookie ball. He would be out of options this season either way. It's such an old mistake it may have even happened during Smith's tenure (I think it did but don't feel like looking it up now).

 

I'm not saying mistakes weren't made, only that the Polanco mistake borders on ancient history.

[drjim]

The word from the insiders on this site at the beginning of the season indicated that Buxton third was a Falvey dictum.

 

If the logic is that the Twins aren't bringing up Gonsalves, etc because the FO feels they aren't ready then the same logic indicates that Jorge was brought up because the thought was he was ready. You are trying to have it both ways. That whiffs of towing the company line.

There is also a difference between a spot start as part of a doubleheader and calling up a pitcher to take regular turns in a rotation. Huge difference.