Are we done jumping to conclusions on Falvey & Co. ?

[old nurse]

 

Greg Holland, Koji Uehara, Jetry Blevins, Matt Albers, Yusmeiro Petit -- I don't know if you really researched this.

Greg Holland slipped through ESPN's listing cracks as he was a free agent after the 2015 season. Albers and Pettit signed a minor league contracts, not a major league contracts. Blevins resigned with his same team and has more blown saves than any Twins reliever. The Twins have a left hander named Taylor Rodgers who does the same thing as Blevins. . Even at that,  of the over 60 some relief pitchers signed to short term or minor league deals  you can come up with 5 more. Hello, SIX having decent years. Odds of getting a difference maker short term are pretty slim.  Or do you go into things thinking when less than 1/10 pan out that there are great odds for success? 

 

Uehera's stat line on espn was higher than 3 Why one should not trust espn. They have Eddie Rosario a the Twins third best reliever. Do you think they have him confused with Gimmenez? http://www.espn.com/mlb/team/depth/_/name/min/minnesota-twins 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

The problem with this issue is that the existing Twins prospects should be getting the chance to prove themselves, or should have already had the opportunity.

 

JT Chargois, DJ Baxendale, Alan Busenitz, Trevor Hildenberger, all 26 years old. David Hurlbut 27 years old. All at AAA. These are not some young prospects. These are guys that have been in the Twins minor league system for some years with the exception of Busenitz who was acquired in a trade.

 

AS I have pointed out over and over again, the former and current management seems to be excited to plug in every waiver cut in major league baseball, but still has not given a thorough look at Chargois, or any look at the other 4 guys.

 

I get Chargois is injured, again. But while we carry a 37 year old reliever with a 8.22 ERA, why not give Hildenberger, guy that has had nothing but success in the minors all the way up the chain. He has a career 2.04 ERA and 10.4 K/9 with a WHIP of 0.875, a shot. If his effectiveness does not match the 8.22 ERA that would be surprising. But give him Belise appearances and lets see what happens.

 

Why carry a 36 year old left hander with a 5.09 ERA when we have LHP David Hurlbut sitting in AAA. I know that Hurlbut isn't regarded as a top level prospect and has been mostly a starter in his career, but he has pitched in relief (I have personally seen two relief appearances at Ft Myers) and being in his 7th year in the organization his performance deserves a shot.

 

I think Pressley and Boshers needs to be on the short leash and if it is pulled it is time to give Busenitz and/or Baxendale the next chance.

 

If these guys fail, then their is the next level. Luke Bard, who has missed so much time with injury is sitting in AA. Because of his injuries he is already 26 years old, but he has a 2.84 ERA and 52 Ks in just 31 innings. John Curtiss is the AA closer with a sub-1,00 ERA. He is 24 and needs to be looked at as the closer of the future. His chance should come sooner rather than later.

 

YOu really cannot tell if a player is going to be succesful until you give them a true chance. If we put off getting these guys up to the big leagues their time will pass, and why we continue to try out a string of Wilks, Rucisnskis, Turleys, Hestons, and Tepesches is beyond me when we have quality, experienced prospects waiting their chances.

according to Berardino Busenitz is on his way. Vindicated or still outraged?

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/MikeBerardino/status/875921684875890689

[The Wise One]

 

Right on cue Nick Turley pitching a hell of a game.  8 ER in 4.2 innings.  Keeps his ERA at just 12.46.  

 

I know they gave Jason Wheeler a shot and it probably went the way I thought it would.  But Jason deserved a chance.

 

I don't see were David Hurlbut can be any worse.  And if he is, then nothing is really lost than sending up these known replacement level players.  Give Hurlbut a chance.  Let him start the games Turley and Tepesch are getting, If he pitches well, see if you can work him in as teh 5th starter.  If not, you gave him a shot and either send him back to the minors or move him to a different organization for a 2nd shot with them.

 

Free.  David. Hurlbut.

You assail them for giving Turley a chance and failing when he was having a far better season than the others in Rochester.  How can Hurlbut be any worse?  Hurlbut did not miss as many bats in the minors would be one clue. He is not fooling the players he currently faces, better hitters will destroy him. 

[The Wise One]

 

The problem with this issue is that the existing Twins prospects should be getting the chance to prove themselves, or should have already had the opportunity.

 

JT Chargois, DJ Baxendale, Alan Busenitz, Trevor Hildenberger, all 26 years old.  David Hurlbut 27 years old.  All at AAA.  These are not some young prospects.  These are guys that have been in the Twins minor league system for some years with the exception of Busenitz who was acquired in a trade.  

 

AS I have pointed out over and over again, the former and current management seems to be excited to plug in every waiver cut in major league baseball, but still has not given a thorough look at Chargois, or any look at the other 4 guys.

 

I get Chargois is injured, again.  But while we carry a 37 year old reliever with a 8.22 ERA, why not give Hildenberger, guy that has had nothing but success in the minors all the way up the chain.  He has a career 2.04 ERA and 10.4 K/9 with a WHIP of 0.875, a shot.  If his effectiveness does not match the 8.22 ERA that would be surprising.  But give him Belise appearances and lets see what happens.

 

Why carry a 36 year old left hander with a 5.09 ERA when we have LHP David Hurlbut sitting in AAA.  I know that Hurlbut isn't regarded as a top level prospect and has been mostly a starter in his career, but he has pitched in relief (I have personally seen two relief appearances at Ft Myers) and being in his 7th year in the organization his performance deserves a shot. 

 

I think Pressley and Boshers needs to be on the short leash and if it is pulled it is time to give Busenitz and/or Baxendale the next chance.

 

If these guys fail, then their is the next level.  Luke Bard, who has missed so much time with injury is sitting in AA.  Because of his injuries he is already 26 years old, but he has a 2.84 ERA and 52 Ks in just 31 innings.  John Curtiss is the AA closer with a sub-1,00 ERA.  He is 24 and needs to be looked at as the closer of the future.  His chance should come sooner rather than later.

 

YOu really cannot tell if a player is going to be succesful until you give them a true chance.  If we put off getting these guys up to the big leagues their time will pass, and why we continue to try out a string of  Wilks, Rucisnskis, Turleys, Hestons, and Tepesches is beyond me when we have quality, experienced prospects waiting their chances.    

Pitcher A holds the lead 11 out of the 13 times he takes the ball with the lead. Has only lost one game all season. Pitcher B has  held the lead  out of 10 games and has 4 losses but has 1/4 the era of pitcher A. Pitcher C is 7  years younger than the other 2 players and has held the lead in 11/14 games that mattered.  Which reliever has contributed more to their team winning?  ERA is nice to have low but in the end that does not matter as much as how many games they blow. The pitcher  that pitches well in blowout games but not so much in the tighter games will look better than the pitcher who pitching poorly in blowout losses and better in tight games.

[The Wise One]

I would add that the Twins had a pitcher last year that was a rookie chuck up an ERA of 8 as a starter.  Good thing they did not jettison that miserable pitcher.  Turley, like so many before him, still has a few things to figure out. The coaches need to see what is going on and determine if is fixable or is he another Pat Dean, a left handed Meyer or a competent starter.  

[HitInAPinch]

[Platoon]

Since I am terrified of heights, the only thing I will jump to is conclusions. And my conclusion is that if you could get inside Falvines head you would find out that (it) thought there was no chance to contend this year. Therefore, no reason to sign questionable RP. I dont think the teams current lofty status in the AL Central is or should change that. Making immediate moves to patch holes in this roster would have a negative, not positive impact over the next 4 years. And that's where I hope their focus is. I know it sucks to wait, but injuries, May of 2105, and some questionable decisions prior to their arrival have set this team back about a year.

[mikelink45]

Slow down.  It is not about jumping to conclusions, it is about waiting to see what they are going to do.  The draft was interesting and some think it was great, but wait three years.  They are pitching Turley, Gibson, Wilks, and Mejia in a series with our number one competitor and the bullpen is a revolving door.  We have had a long list of dumpster dives for the pitching staff.  

I do not say they are failing, but I am not reading to praise them either. 

[h2oface]

 

I havent seen anything that I would proclaim management as anything other than average. Ask the same question next year.

 

Exactly. Can we quit jumping to conclusions that this is a good draft, yet? Nothing but opinion so far. And Hunter Greene will be pitching for the Reds.

[Squirrel]

First off, I don't think 'many' wanted to run Falvine out of town after the 1st day of the draft. That is an overstated generalization and mischaracterization of posters that I would like everyone to stay away from, please. I think many, myself included, were initially disappointed in the first pick and were thinking 'whaaaaat the ...?' And I think most of those many discussed that very reasonably, excluding myself with my overly dramatic and emotional 'DISAPPOINTED' post. Yes, there were a few who immediately thew out the old and tired whines of the FO being cheap or being the same as it ever was or needing to go, (and some of those posts were removed for being disrespectful, trolling or not on topic) but certainly not many posters went that route. By the second day I think most of those many backed away from their initial disappointment and frustration and thought, 'Well, okay, I see what you did there. I'm okay with that,' or better. Yes, some still expressed it wouldn't have been what they would've done or still expressed disappointment of not taking Greene 1:1, but so what? It's an opinion, and while maybe not filled with complete trust and being on board with everything, it is far from running anyone out of town. TD exists to discuss baseball, from all sides. While there are some who want to discuss the good of what's been done, some want to discuss that bad of what hasn't been. I see nothing wrong with that. In fact, it's those differences that make TD thrive. Personally, I'd like it if people stayed away from both extremes of 'all bad' or 'all good' or 'always happy with everything' or 'never happy with anything,' but just who those posters are, are also judgements of perspective. I think we should be careful of how we lump posters into generalized categories. While we may not always (or ever, in some cases) like what others say or how they think, bring it to the table in the form of discussion not accusation.

 

That said, the pitching, ugh. I'll give it through the season and off-season and even into next season, but I hope to see Falvine completely up to speed in what we have and don't have and address it accordingly. Personally, despite it being frustrating and not what everyone think should be done, I am willing to try to have at least that much patience. But I really do hope to see some movement to shore things up by all the upcoming deadlines of this season.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

 

SO NO, I AM NOT DONE JUMPING TO CONCLUSIONS.... FIRE FALVINE!!!! (strong whiff of sarcasm)(Am I officially the first to start this in replacement of TR?) 

Nope, someone registered with the Fire Falvey username the day he was hired...
 

[h2oface]

 

JT Chargois, DJ Baxendale, Alan Busenitz, Trevor Hildenberger, all 26 years old.  David Hurlbut 27 years old.  All at AAA.  These are not some young prospects.  These are guys that have been in the Twins minor league system for some years with the exception of Busenitz who was acquired in a trade.  

 

Pretty close to the age of being called career minor leaguers..............

[Otto von Ballpark]

Greg Holland slipped through ESPN's listing cracks as he was a free agent after the 2015 season. Albers and Pettit signed a minor league contracts, not a major league contracts. Blevins resigned with his same team and has more blown saves than any Twins reliever. The Twins have a left hander named Taylor Rodgers who does the same thing as Blevins. . Even at that, of the over 60 some relief pitchers signed to short term or minor league deals you can come up with 5 more. Hello, SIX having decent years. Odds of getting a difference maker short term are pretty slim. Or do you go into things thinking when less than 1/10 pan out that there are great odds for success?

 

Uehera's stat line on espn was higher than 3 Why one should not trust espn. They have Eddie Rosario a the Twins third best reliever. Do you think they have him confused with Gimmenez? http://www.espn.com/mlb/team/depth/_/name/min/minnesota-twins

I don't even know what you are trying to say anymore. Uehara's ERA is currently under 3, and a 3 ERA is a pretty arbitrary line anyway that doesn't really correlate with effectiveness or value (Duffey is at 3.03 today, for instance -- is he not a worthwhile addition to the Twins pen?).

 

Blown saves for middle relievers like Blevins are pretty meaningless without context. Blevins has 4, all before the 9th inning, of course, and in none of them did he leave with a deficit (just ties, and his team won 3 of those 4). In fact, he hasn't caused a deficit for his team all season, and he's had a higher average leverage than any Twin except Kintzler, so he's coming into a lot of close games.

 

And I'm not necessarily advocating that the Twins should have signed Blevins, just trying to show that opportunities weren't quite as dire as you were suggesting.

 

And a MLB front office isn't like a fan making picks. They can't just abstain if there aren't obvious solutions -- it's their job to find those solutions, obvious or not. The combo of Belisle and Breslow has been a predictably bad effort in that regard.

[howieramone2]

 

The problems this team has are all inherited from previous management.

 

To us dedicated fans it seemed obvious that the pitching staff needed 75% turnover. This would have seemed bonkers to any incoming GM -- even GMs who look at the stat sheets -- so it's not surprising that they wanted to take things slower and see things for themselves. 

All the best players also. Let's see if I can get this thru. LaVelle recently reported in the Strib that TR was in charge of international scouting when Sano, Kepler, and Polanco were signed. 

[Platoon]

First off, I don't think 'many' wanted to run Falvine out of town after the 1st day of the draft. That is an overstated generalization and mischaracterization of posters that I would like everyone to stay away from, please. I think many, myself included, were initially disappointed in the first pick and were thinking 'whaaaaat the ...?' And I think most of those many discussed that very reasonably, excluding myself with my overly dramatic and emotional 'DISAPPOINTED' post. Yes, there were a few who immediately thew out the old and tired whines of the FO being cheap or being the same as it ever was or needing to go, (and some of those posts were removed for being disrespectful, trolling or not on topic) but certainly not many. By the second day I think most of those many backed away from their initial disappointment and frustration and thought, 'Well, okay, I see what you did there. I'm okay with that,' or better. Yes, some still expressed it wouldn't have been what they would've done or still expressed disappointment of not taking Greene 1:1, but so what? It's an opinion, and while maybe not filled with complete trust and being on board with everything, it is far from running anyone out of town. TD exists to discuss baseball, from all sides. While there are some who want to discuss the good of what's been done, some want to discuss that bad of what hasn't been. I see nothing wrong with that. In fact, it's those differences that make TD thrive. Personally, I'd like it if people stayed away from both extremes of 'all bad' or 'all good' or 'always happy with everything' or 'never happy with anything,' but just who those posters are, are also judgements of perspective. I think we should be careful of how we lump posters into generalized categories. While we may not always (or ever, in some cases) like what others say or how they think, bring it to the table in the form of discussion not accusation.

That said, the pitching, ugh. I'll give it through the season and off-season and even into next season, but I hope to see Falvine completely up to speed in what we have and don't have and address it accordingly. Personally, despite it being frustrating and not what everyone think should be done, I am willing to try to have at least that much patience. But I really do hope to see some movement to shore things up by all the upcoming deadlines of this season.

I would bet a box of Dunkin Donuts that Falvine is extremely aware of what his pitching staff looks like. I, like others hope that before we turn completely back into a pumpkin this year some of the like of Melotakis arrive for an audition. While I have no idea whether any of those arms will stick, it would seem necessary to sort out the chaff. The problem the Twins have is their pitching is so bad, so sparse, that their is no easy fix. Their might not even be a difficult one. If you cannot get a pitcher for BD, that leaves the Buxtons and Sanos. Sadly time might be our only solution. And that's not easy to contemplate.

[flags]

 

 

 

man, way to steal my thunder with visual aides 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I know it sucks to wait, but injuries, May of 2105, and some questionable decisions prior to their arrival have set this team back...

I refuse to wait another 80+ seasons for this so-called window of contention.

[Platoon]

I refuse to wait another 80+ seasons for this so-called window of contention.

Dyslexsia sucks. My worst attack was last year when I could not figure out why the Twins were not in the playoffs after winning 103 games?

[jimmer]

  http://www.dumpaday.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/dyslexia-cure-found-funny-pictures.jpg

 

[Oldgoat_MN]

The Twins tried to sign Mike Napoli in the off-season. The 35 year old signed with Texas. His OPS last year was .800.

 

Both Robbie Grossman and Kennys Vargas had an OPS over .800 last year. Both are under team control for a while (Vargas until 2022, Grossman until 2021). Both are hitting better than Napoli this year.

 

I'm not going to judge them on any single move. It occurs, however, that they have the opinion that guys they sign (like Haley & Beilse) are more likely t get a shot at getting and keeping a position than the guys that they inherited.

That makes me uncomfortable.

[mlhouse]

 

What's the difference between Hurlbut and Turley?  Or Andrew Albers for that matter...

 

 

You don't know, nor do I.  The only way to know is to give them an opportunity.

[mlhouse]

 

i don't yet fault the FO for the handling of minor leaguers yet. It's the middle of June, lots of time. Recycling quad-A guys isn't my favorite either, but sometimes it's required.

I don't see acquiring free agents or making trades in direct conflict with promoting minor leaguers. This bullpen is awful and there's plenty of room for all of the above.

 

 

Except we need to push the internal prospects first.  This is the cheapest course.  Find the players that work, then fill in the holes.  We are still one year from even thinking about competing.  

[mlhouse]

 

Pretty close to the age of being called career minor leaguers..............

 

Certainly, if they are never given a chance.  What I condemn the front office the most is that we have had multiple 95+ loss seasons, and some of these guys who have been successful in the minors have not been given any opportunity.

 

As I said, I get JT Chargois.  He might have entered the total write off stage, a 26 year old minor leaguer who has missed two full seasons because of injury, and now injured against for what appears to be the bulk of a season. NOt much you can do about that except it made zero sense last season not to hand him the closer job for most of the season and let him sink or swim.  

 

But, a guy like Trevor Hildenberger is another story.  His minor league career has been nothing but spectacular.  His minor league career WHIP < 1 and his K/9 > 10.  He is 26 years old and the expiration date of his baseball career is approaching.  Why not bring him up and give him Belise appearances?  Could he do worse?  

 

FOr those that are talking about Hurlbut and "not missing many bats", sure ,I get it.  I am not arguing that they bring him up and make him their #1 starter.  Instead, I am arguing that he has been a pretty good minor league pitcher for the organization and they should give him a chance over some waiver wire guy who failed in some other organization.  If he sucks, he sucks and we can send him back to AAA until he retires or he joins some other organization.  But at least give the guy a chance.  His AAA stats are as good as the other guys they have tried out.

[dgwills]

 

Who are the many top baseball minds?  I've seen Callis extol the Twins drafting prowess, but have not seen others say the Twins had a fantastic draft.

I would enjoy reading more on this from other experts.

Yeah. I don't really see it. They did have a huge draft pool which makes any strategy look good, but I don't think they did very well. Here's my thoughts (I posted this in another thread as well).

The draft really comes down to Leach as some other posters have mentioned. So let's say the consensus view is that the tier one players in this draft are Greene, Mckay, and Wright. Tier 2 is Gore and Lewis (I believe this to be the case although there are people who would put Gore or Lewis in tier 1). You're already getting Rooker and likely Enlow without saving money on the first pick. Maybe you have to save a little in the later rounds to make this happen. Who do you have to add to that equation to make it worth taking a tier 2 player over a tier 1 player with the first pick? I'd say it would have to be someone like Baz or Carlson. Or anyone in-between.
The Twins were able to get some good players in the later rounds that would not be possible with this strategy, but the odds of any of them becoming mlb average players is really low.
Maybe the Twins out scouted the other teams and saw a lot of value that others did not see. This is something that will have to be proven since there is not any track record of the Twin's doing this.

[Darius]

Nothing wrong with scepticism until they earn otherwise.

 

I don't really care what bloggers and sports writers say about the draft, frankly. Sure, it looks good on paper. But, let's see how it plays out before crowning them.

 

Aren't you kind of jumping to conclusions also, just on the opposite side of the coin as the critics?

[Craig Arko]

Jumping to a conclusion perfected.

 

[Will]

Kyle Wright signed with the Atlanta Braves for $7 Million bonus.  Good luck with those high school players!

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Except we need to push the internal prospects first. This is the cheapest course. Find the players that work, then fill in the holes. We are still one year from even thinking about competing.

theres 6 holes in the pitching staff. Can't fill all those holes from the minors. Agreed, the FO needs to audition minor leaguers, but "when" is the rub. I don't think all of the guys mentioned are, or ever will be, ready. I have trust that Falvine will bring them up as they are deemed ready.

 

They are competing now. Need to do what's best for today for the big league club, and for the development of the young/milb players

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

The Twins tried to sign Mike Napoli in the off-season. The 35 year old signed with Texas. His OPS last year was .800.

 

Both Robbie Grossman and Kennys Vargas had an OPS over .800 last year. Both are under team control for a while (Vargas until 2022, Grossman until 2021). Both are hitting better than Napoli this year.

 

I'm not going to judge them on any single move. It occurs, however, that they have the opinion that guys they sign (like Haley & Beilse) are more likely t get a shot at getting and keeping a position than the guys that they inherited.

That makes me uncomfortable.

 

I think it's clear that they saw a problem with club house culture.  While I'm not a fan of Napoli, and the killer Bs have not been that good, I think quite a few of us here had much of the same perception, and I don't think it's an accident that so many guys are taking steps forward this year.  Those vets are bringing value, even if it doesn't show up...

 

Now the good thing is that as the culture changes, eliminating dead weight will not suddenly create a void for the new guys going in.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I think it's clear that they saw a problem with club house culture. While I'm not a fan of Napoli, and the killer Bs have not been that good, I think quite a few of us here had much of the same perception, and I don't think it's an accident that so many guys are taking steps forward this year. Those vets are bringing value, even if it doesn't show up...

 

Now the good thing is that as the culture changes, eliminating dead weight will not suddenly create a void for the new guys going in.

Interesting that the clubhouse culture improved as soon as we got off to a hot start and did some winning...