Sonny Gray Trade Target?

[Guest]

Here's the list of free agent starters. If, by some act of stupidity or stubborness, Arrietta isn't extended, he's going to go where the money is best. That ain't going to be Minnesota. http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/free-agents/starting-pitcher/

So, who among the rest, piques your interest? None really pique mine other than Pineda - who is also likely to be extended prior to October.

Yankees often don't extend in-season, so Pineda should be available.

 

Other interesting FA's include Darvish, Cueto, Estrada, Chatwood, Tanaka, Cobb and Shohei Otani, besides Arrieta. There may be other opt-outs.

 

Sonny Gray is a good pitcher, if healthy, so it wouldn't be a disaster if he were to be acquired, but there may be better uses of organization resources than to trade two players, such as Gordon and Gonsalves/Romero, who could be starters on the 2018 Twins. This year's team needs at least two starters, two relievers, and a left fielder and/or first baseman who will put up greater than 1.0 WAR. Trading two of next year's possible starters to fill just one of many positions needing upgrade would make it harder to fill all of the holes.

[brvama]

 

Archer would require much more than Gordon. Likely Gonsalves or Romero and a higher ranked prospect in A ball or lower like Diaz, Javier or Blankenhorn.

I stated in my post that it would be more that Gordon: "Of course, Gordon would be the primary piece, along with other prospects." 

 

Of your suggested names, whether it's Archer or anyone else, the only one that would cause me hesitation is Gonsalves, primarily b/c needing pitching I'm not a enamored giving up pitching that is closed to the majors. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

After watching the Cleveland series, I think the contender/pretender status is pretty clear.  We still have a couple more brutal weeks of baseball for the team to prove us right or wrong. 

 

Right now, I wouldn't give up anything for Gray (with the caveat that we should spend some money this offseason on above average or elite pitching).  Next year's team will need depth too, and having guys like Gonsalves/Romero ready to fill in when they need a pitcher will be just as important as having at least one more proven starter to compliment Santana and Berrios. 

[Vanimal46]

This is exactly the type of move the Twins should be making. It is very easy to see that the Twins biggest weakness this year and next year is pitching. All of Gray's advanced stats show him pitching at his best although his BAPIP, HR/FB% and ERA (all luck stats) have been poor. Check out his velocity, K:BB and swstr%.

 

Nick Gordon is a very good prospect but this wouldn't be a bad time to sell high on him if you can bring back an excellent pitcher. Don't let his .874 OPS fool you. He has a .395 BAPIP and a 22% K rate. I know that this criticism will immediately bring backlash. He is a very good prospect but he shouldn't be considered untouchable for a pitcher that would be a 2/3 (I think 2) for 2.5 years.

 

I don't want to trade Gordon but adding a pitcher like Gray completely changes my outlook for the team. People keep saying that this team isn't one player away but actually they are. A front end starter is that one player. They still need to find a few pieces in the bullpen but those aren't impossible to find (just look in the minors for example).

 

Gray

Santana

Berrios

 

this is a legit rotation

Concur 100%. Gray and his 2.5 years of control would be worth trading a prospect such as Gordon away for.

 

According to most every metric available to measure defense, Oakland ranks dead last this year. Letting him pitch behind a good defensive team like the Twins and his luck should turn around.

[Thrylos]

 

Reports are that Curtiss throws 95+ with movement and his K rates support that. Why do you say he isn't the type of hard thrower the team desires?

 

Check his BB rates out.

[Twodogs]

 

I'm very interested in trying to get someone like Sonny Gray, but there is absolutely no way I include Nick Gordon in the deal. I would like to keep Gonsalves, and there is no way I send Gonsalves and Romero in a deal for Gray. I know you have to give up good prospects to get major leaguers, but Sonny Gray does not cost a king's ransom in prospects right now. He was pretty bad last year and he is giving up a lot of hits again this year. 

 

Does Oakland have a bad defense? Maybe Gray is just unlucky right now. Can you justify making a major deal based on luck?

A Bird in the Major Leagues is worth at least two or three in the Bush leagues.

[kab21]

 

After watching the Cleveland series, I think the contender/pretender status is pretty clear.  We still have a couple more brutal weeks of baseball for the team to prove us right or wrong. 

 

Right now, I wouldn't give up anything for Gray (with the caveat that we should spend some money this offseason on above average or elite pitching).  Next year's team will need depth too, and having guys like Gonsalves/Romero ready to fill in when they need a pitcher will be just as important as having at least one more proven starter to compliment Santana and Berrios. 

If it were me I would trade for someone like Gray (2.5 years control) and make a splash in the FA pitching market.
 

This type of rotation starts to look good

 

FA pitcher

Gray

Berrios

Santana

 

Hughes (still going to be here) Mejia - Romero/Gonsalves (the not traded prospect) to fill out the rotation 

 

If people are concerned about the farm system then I would be interested in dealing Dozier separately for prospects to restock. It doesn't have to be done in the same deal. Escobar/Polanco starting at 2B/SS is acceptable to me.

 

If people don't like Gray then start recommending other possible trade targets. That are actually plausible trade candidates (some rumors).

[Oxtung]

If it were me I would trade for someone like Gray (2.5 years control) and make a splash in the FA pitching market.

 

This type of rotation starts to look good

 

FA pitcher

Gray

Berrios

Santana

 

Hughes (still going to be here) Mejia - Romero/Gonsalves (the not traded prospect) to fill out the rotation 

 

If people are concerned about the farm system then I would be interested in dealing Dozier separately for prospects to restock. It doesn't have to be done in the same deal. Escobar/Polanco starting at 2B/SS is acceptable to me.

 

If people don't like Gray then start recommending other possible trade targets. That are actually plausible trade candidates (some rumors).

That would certainly change the outlook going into next season. It probably depends on the exact cost in prospects for Gray.

[Pardon My Dinger]

If the Twins tried to use Stewart as a major piece of a Gray trade, the A's hang up the phone and don't take a return call.

They change their phone number and create a Facebook event to give out their new number and invite everyone but the Twins.

[jorgenswest]

Everyone would want to add Gray to the rotation.

 

The question is whether they are willing to pay the price. I think it is going to cost some team a very good starting pitching prospect and a very good up the middle prospect. If there is enough competition an upside A-Ball player could be added.

 

It isn't a matter of not wanting Gray. It's a matter of not wanting to pay the price.

 

I don't want to pay the price. I am not going to join those that would say if... and then come up with a very favorable deal. That's playing both sides of the debate. It is going to take a couple top 100 guys and the Twins don't have many of those. It's going to hurt.

[Mike Sixel]

 

If it were me I would trade for someone like Gray (2.5 years control) and make a splash in the FA pitching market.
 

This type of rotation starts to look good

 

FA pitcher

Gray

Berrios

Santana

 

Hughes (still going to be here) Mejia - Romero/Gonsalves (the not traded prospect) to fill out the rotation 

 

If people are concerned about the farm system then I would be interested in dealing Dozier separately for prospects to restock. It doesn't have to be done in the same deal. Escobar/Polanco starting at 2B/SS is acceptable to me.

 

If people don't like Gray then start recommending other possible trade targets. That are actually plausible trade candidates (some rumors).

 

they couldn't deal Dozier with 2 years on his deal, coming off a career year. What will they get for him this time?

 

I doubt very much this FO deals multiple prospects for 1 player. I see the opposite in them, trying to get more prospects.

 

As for any FA, he'll be much worse than any of the three you list above, imo. Seems very unlikely they'll sign one of the 2-3 decent/good ones that will be there.

[howieramone2]

 

If they cannot beat competitive teams at home, they need to sell, not buy...

No team in the history of baseball, has thrown in the towel when they are only 2 games out of first this early in the season.

[howieramone2]

 

Reports are that Curtiss throws 95+ with movement and his K rates support that. Why do you say he isn't the type of hard thrower the team desires?

I wasn't aware he threw that hard. Is so, he fits.

[kab21]

 

That would certainly change the outlook going into next season. It probably depends on the exact cost in prospects for Gray.

That is my biggest point in being aggressive. Right now the Twins are a middle of the pack team. Next year they will be a middle of the pack team. If they keep their prospects (Gonsalves and Romero) they need to get lucky to be anything more than a middle of the pack team in 2019. That isn't okay with me since the Twins are putting together a solid offense (about 15th by OPS in the MLB) with upside for more. This team should be in go mode in the short term future and all I read about is wait and even some want to rebuild. I find this very frustrating.

If it is me then I roll the dice and try to acquire a #2/3 starter in a trade for a couple of good prospects (it might not work but I won't shoot it down before trying) and make a signing splash. And I really think that is one of the big reasons that the Twins drafted Royce Lewis (and a second hitter). It gives them depth and flexibility to trade in the farm system.

[AZTwin]

What about a guy like Yu Darvish or Ivan Nova?

[brettbrett88]

 

After watching the Cleveland series, I think the contender/pretender status is pretty clear.  We still have a couple more brutal weeks of baseball for the team to prove us right or wrong. 

 

I agree 100%....all it takes is the Indians to have a bad series at the Orioles and the Twins to up their game against the White Sox and we'll be back (or close) to all square before you can say supercalifragilisticexpialidocious!

[brettbrett88]

 

No team in the history of baseball, has thrown in the towel when they are only 2 games out of first this early in the season.

 

Yeah..Rocky never gave up!

[Vanimal46]

 

What about a guy like Yu Darvish or Ivan Nova?

 

Maybe on Nova. Darvish is a rental and will most certainly sign for big $$$ this off-season. 

[ashbury]

Yeah..Rocky never gave up!

Approves:

 

[Comrade Bork]

The FO is clearly trying to stack prospects, I don't think they deal any top prospects during the season. I'd deal Gordon 1 for 1 a #2-3 starter.

 

What I really want is for the Twins to go after Arrieta in free agency. Lure him away from the cubs with the promise of Buxton in center.

[USAFChief]

The FO is clearly trying to stack prospects, I don't think they deal any top prospects during the season. I'd deal Gordon 1 for 1 a #2-3 starter.

What I really want is for the Twins to go after Arrieta in free agency. Lure him away from the cubs with the promise of Buxton in center.

I think they'll have better luck using Ben Franklin pics in the center.

[yarnivek1972]

The FO is clearly trying to stack prospects, I don't think they deal any top prospects during the season. I'd deal Gordon 1 for 1 a #2-3 starter.

 

What I really want is for the Twins to go after Arrieta in free agency. Lure him away from the cubs with the promise of Buxton in center.

I'm not sure that's a promise that can be kept. At some point, Buxton is going to have to hit like a MLB player to keep his job. Other than a couple weeks in May and a couple more last September, he never really has.

[Doomtints]

Re: Sonny Gray, reports are that the Astros are already talking to the As about him.

 

Four things:

 

1) Considering trading off assets like Gordon for Gray is lunacy.

2) Good luck outbidding the Astros in any case.

3) Why trade off a prospect in a year where the Twins will either not make the playoffs or will make another 1st round exit? The As don't need Dozier.

4) Gray might not be a free agent until 2020, but he is going to be expensive going forward. This could be a bust for a guy who might not be good enough to make a playoff starting roster.

 

 

[Vanimal46]

 

Re: Sonny Gray, reports are that the Astros are already talking to the As about him.

 

Four things:

 

1) Considering trading off assets like Gordon for Gray is lunacy.

2) Good luck outbidding the Astros in any case.

3) Why trade off a prospect in a year where the Twins will either not make the playoffs or will make another 1st round exit? The As don't need Dozier.

4) Gray might not be a free agent until 2020, but he is going to be expensive going forward. This could be a bust for a guy who might not be good enough to make a playoff starting roster.

 

1) Disagree. This could very well be the high point of Gordon's value, and Gray fills a very immediate, specific need for the Twins. Could be a #3/#2 at his best, and controlled for 2.5 years. 

2) Yes, this is probably true.

3) Are we throwing up the white flag in the middle of June? Who says they don't have a chance at making the playoffs?

4) The Twins haven't had any issues paying $10-15 MM for players. And Gray could most certainly make a playoff starting rotation. 

[Doomtints]

 

1) Disagree. This could very well be the high point of Gordon's value, and Gray fills a very immediate, specific need for the Twins. Could be a #3/#2 at his best, and controlled for 2.5 years. 

2) Yes, this is probably true.

3) Are we throwing up the white flag in the middle of June? Who says they don't have a chance at making the playoffs?

4) The Twins haven't had any issues paying $10-15 MM for players. And Gray could most certainly make a playoff starting rotation. 

 

I can appreciate your patience. Until recently I was there with you, however it seems this team's pitching is not ready.

 

I'm not understanding point #1. I don't think you trade an asset for a "#3 at best" type of pitcher, esp. when someone like Santana won't be around long and you have to think about his replacement.

 

Regarding point #3, I think they have a shot to make the playoffs, however I think it is unlikely that they will. Furthermore, if they make the playoffs, they are not likely to win a playoff series regardless of who they pick up because they can't/won't pick up 2 starters and 5 relievers. Thus, picking up one player for this year is a pointless idea.

 

Regarding point #4, you are describing the previous GM's propensity to pay in this range for pitchers who were good once. This GM, hopefully, has different ideas. Look at Gray's splits -- rather than just his FIP -- and tell me with a straight face how he is on the road to a 3.50 ERA (2+ years ago) again instead of a 5.50 ERA (last year) again.  Any smart team that bets on Gray would be doing so for this year only. Any good years beyond this one would be an unexpected bonus. Gray's future in the league is likely that of a journeyman unless he pulls a Cy Young year out of his back pocket.

[Doomtints]

 

The FO is clearly trying to stack prospects, I don't think they deal any top prospects during the season. I'd deal Gordon 1 for 1 a #2-3 starter.

What I really want is for the Twins to go after Arrieta in free agency. Lure him away from the cubs with the promise of Buxton in center.

 

Arrieta was terrible when he played in the AL.

[Vanimal46]

 

I can appreciate your patience. Until recently I was there with you, however it seems this team's pitching is not ready.

 

I'm not understanding point #1. I don't think you trade an asset for a "#3 at best" type of pitcher, esp. when someone like Santana won't be around long and you have to think about his replacement.

 

Regarding point #3, I think they have a shot to make the playoffs, however I think it is unlikely that they do. Furthermore, if they make the playoffs, they are not likely to win a playoff series regardless of who they pick up because they can't/won't pick up 2 starters and 5 relievers. Thus, picking up a player for this year is a pointless idea.

 

Regarding point #4, you are describing the previous GM's propensity to pay in this range for pitchers who were good once. This GM, hopefully, has different ideas. Look at Gray's splits -- rather than just his FIP -- and tell me with a straight face how he is on the road to a 3.50 ERA again instead of a 5.50 ERA again.  Any smart team that bets on Gray would be doing so for this year only.

 

To clarify point #1, I'm thinking Gray is a #3, and at his best a #2. The Twins have middle IF assets at the MLB level (Polanco and Dozier) mid-level (Gordon, Vielma) and the lowest levels (Royce, Javier) which makes someone like Gordon someone I would consider trading.

 

Sure, it would suck losing him, but the pitching situation is so bleak that they need to be creative acquiring to help right now. Frankly we can all keep talking about trading Dozier until we're blue in the face, but I don't believe there's a real market for him. 

 

To rebut your point #3, would it be so bad to lose in the 1st round this season after losing 90+ games 5 out of the last 6 seasons? I'd rather the young core get some sort of competitive playoff experience and build upon that. At least show they want to compete to convince Sano, Buxton, and Berrios this is a place to stay long term. 

 

Finally, to rebut point #4, I can't talk much about what adjustments Gray needs to make to become a 3.50 ERA pitcher again. Just by viewing defensive metrics, Oakland is not doing any of their pitchers favors. They're ranked dead last in most every category they report on. As we saw last year with the Twins, if the defense is atrocious, the pitching is going to crumble as well. 

[yarnivek1972]

To clarify point #1, I'm thinking Gray is a #3, and at his best a #2. The Twins have middle IF assets at the MLB level (Polanco and Dozier) mid-level (Gordon, Vielma) and the lowest levels (Royce, Javier) which makes someone like Gordon someone I would consider trading.

 

Sure, it would suck losing him, but the pitching situation is so bleak that they need to be creative acquiring to help right now. Frankly we can all keep talking about trading Dozier until we're blue in the face, but I don't believe there's a real market for him.

 

To rebut your point #3, would it be so bad to lose in the 1st round this season after losing 90+ games 5 out of the last 6 seasons? I'd rather the young core get some sort of competitive playoff experience and build upon that. At least show they want to compete to convince Sano, Buxton, and Berrios this is a place to stay long term.

 

Finally, to rebut point #4, I can't talk much about what adjustments Gray needs to make to become a 3.50 ERA pitcher again. Just by viewing defensive metrics, Oakland is not doing any of their pitchers favors. They're ranked dead last in most every category they report on. As we saw last year with the Twins, if the defense is atrocious, the pitching is going to crumble as well.

The flaw in that theory is that this year the Twins defense ranks among the best in the league yet most of the pitchers are still terrible. The conclusion I draw is that better defense doesn't make BAD pitchers better.

[Vanimal46]

The flaw in that theory is that this year the Twins defense ranks among the best in the league yet most of the pitchers are still terrible. The conclusion I draw is that better defense doesn't make BAD pitchers better.

Sure, that's true. Gray is also immensely more talented than who the Twins are allowing to take the mound 3 out of 5 games.

 

I'm just assuming that Gray's stat line this season is driven by bad luck pitching for a horrific defensive team. Maybe it's a mechanical flaw too but I'm certainly not technical enough to know that kind of stuff.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

Sounded like the plan of the Front Office is to add more prospects around the trade deadline.

Went back and listened again.

 

It was a little more nuanced. Full speed ahead! * 

 

 

*likely to second place in the ALCentral and wild card contention