Sonny Gray Trade Target?

[Doomtints]

 

Sure, it would suck losing him, but the pitching situation is so bleak that they need to be creative acquiring to help right now. Frankly we can all keep talking about trading Dozier until we're blue in the face, but I don't believe there's a real market for him. 

 

There are a lot of tough choices ahead.  

[Mike Sixel]

 

There are a lot of tough choices ahead.  

 

this is certainly true.

[kab21]

 

Arrieta was terrible when he played in the AL.

Further evidence that any pitcher no matter how good can be picked apart and put into the 'not very good' pile.

[old nurse]

 

The FO is clearly trying to stack prospects, I don't think they deal any top prospects during the season. I'd deal Gordon 1 for 1 a #2-3 starter.

What I really want is for the Twins to go after Arrieta in free agency. Lure him away from the cubs with the promise of Buxton in center.

Most anyone would trade Gordon for a number 2 starter.  They cost more than a Gordon. A solid 4 costs more than Gordon

 

[old nurse]

 

The FO is clearly trying to stack prospects, I don't think they deal any top prospects during the season. I'd deal Gordon 1 for 1 a #2-3 starter.

What I really want is for the Twins to go after Arrieta in free agency. Lure him away from the cubs with the promise of Buxton in center.

Since pitching in the World Series, Arrietta must now think he is back in Baltimore. It is the only 100% logical explanation for this year.  Signing Arrietta would be great, but the team would have to hire a hypnotist to make him believe he was still pitching in the National league.

[Doomtints]

 

Further evidence that any pitcher no matter how good can be picked apart and put into the 'not very good' pile.

 

Not much picking apart is required. A two second view of his stats shows that he was not good in the AL.

 

Arrieta is going on record saying he is tired/fatigued from overwork. He will be 32 when the Twins could get him on the field. How much would the Twins pay for a guy who feels like he is cooked?

[Vanimal46]

Arrieta is going to be an interesting case to follow this winter. He's a client of Boras, who will use his 2015 and 2016 seasons as a justification to pay $25+ MM for his services. This year he's looking a lot more like his Baltimore days, and wouldn't get close to $25+ MM. 

 

He may have to wait it out a month or 2 to get the money he's looking for if he doesn't turn it around this season. 

[Comrade Bork]

Arrieta is going to be an interesting case to follow this winter. He's a client of Boras, who will use his 2015 and 2016 seasons as a justification to pay $25+ MM for his services. This year he's looking a lot more like his Baltimore days, and wouldn't get close to $25+ MM. 

 

He may have to wait it out a month or 2 to get the money he's looking for if he doesn't turn it around this season.

 

Yeah, my thoughts were, get him cheap after a down year. He's a much better bounce back candidate than some of the other guys the twins have signed. Only 3 years removed from a Cy young in a pitchers park.

 

Mostly I just want the twins to spend cash instead of prospects for starting pitching not named Pelfrey

[kab21]

 

Not much picking apart is required. A two second view of his stats shows that he was not good in the AL.

 

Arrieta is going on record saying he is tired/fatigued from overwork. He will be 32 when the Twins could get him on the field. How much would the Twins pay for a guy who feels like he is cooked?

His age is a valid reason to not sign him to a HUGE contract but there is no evidence that suggests he will go from a Cy Young contender (3.5 NL seasons) to a lemon (his AL history). It will be interesting to see what kind of contract he gets this offseason. Greinke shows that 5+/25+ is certainly possible.

 

His success in the NL had nothing to do with the NL/AL factor. He changed as a pitcher. The Cubs got him to throw a cutter instead of just trying to power his fastball past everyone and giving him 3 pitchers (plus an occasional changeup). Moving back to the AL won't change that.

 

And his interleague stats back up that he is a changed pitcher.

4GS - 2.16 ERA

6GS - 2.95 ERA

5 GS - 2.43 ERA

1 GS - 10.38 ERA (he is struggling this year)

[Mike Sixel]

 

His age is a valid reason to not sign him to a HUGE contract but there is no evidence that suggests he will go from a Cy Young contender (3.5 NL seasons) to a lemon (his AL history). It will be interesting to see what kind of contract he gets this offseason. Greinke shows that 5+/25+ is certainly possible.

 

His success in the NL had nothing to do with the NL/AL factor. He changed as a pitcher. The Cubs got him to throw a cutter instead of just trying to power his fastball past everyone and giving him 3 pitchers (plus an occasional changeup). Moving back to the AL won't change that.

 

And his interleague stats back up that he is a changed pitcher.

4GS - 2.16 ERA

6GS - 2.95 ERA

5 GS - 2.43 ERA

1 GS - 10.38 ERA (he is struggling this year)

 

his HR numbers and LOB numbers are really bad this year. All the other numbers look about the same or even better than last year or the year before. I'd expect his ERA and HR and LOB numbers to all get better as the year goes on, and for him to be at/near the top of the pitching contracts signed next year.

[Doomtints]

 

His age is a valid reason to not sign him to a HUGE contract but there is no evidence that suggests he will go from a Cy Young contender (3.5 NL seasons) to a lemon (his AL history). It will be interesting to see what kind of contract he gets this offseason. Greinke shows that 5+/25+ is certainly possible.

 

His success in the NL had nothing to do with the NL/AL factor. He changed as a pitcher. The Cubs got him to throw a cutter instead of just trying to power his fastball past everyone and giving him 3 pitchers (plus an occasional changeup). Moving back to the AL won't change that.

 

And his interleague stats back up that he is a changed pitcher.

4GS - 2.16 ERA

6GS - 2.95 ERA

5 GS - 2.43 ERA

1 GS - 10.38 ERA (he is struggling this year)

 

I think it's unlikely that he will be dominant again considering his recent comments to the press that he is tired and overworked + his age.

 

He was very good in his peak years.

[yarnivek1972]

I would be curious to know if some of the same people saying Santana is too old to be relied on are saying go after Arrietta. Arrietta is only 3 years younger, meaning if he signs a 5 year deal he would be older at the end of it than Santana will be after next season.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I would be curious to know if some of the same people saying Santana is too old to be relied on are saying go after Arrietta. Arrietta is only 3 years younger, meaning if he signs a 5 year deal he would be older at the end of it than Santana will be after next season.

 

Except you get those three years as part of the package. If you are buying ANY really good free agent, it is likely you are paying for 1-2 years of decline. The question is, are the first 2-4 years worth the decline years? For me, it would depend on the price. 

[Doomtints]

 

I would be curious to know if some of the same people saying Santana is too old to be relied on are saying go after Arrietta. Arrietta is only 3 years younger, meaning if he signs a 5 year deal he would be older at the end of it than Santana will be after next season.

 

And Santana isn't talking to the press about how he is too tired to perform.

[yarnivek1972]

Except you get those three years as part of the package. If you are buying ANY really good free agent, it is likely you are paying for 1-2 years of decline. The question is, are the first 2-4 years worth the decline years? For me, it would depend on the price.

Given that Arrietta is already showing signs of decline, the price better be pretty good.

[Brandon]

I think trading for Gray makes a lot of sense.  We give up one of our starting ptcher prospects Gonsalves, Jorge or Thorpe , Gordon and a reliever and or someone like Palka or another prospect in the 25-30 ranking (or there can be lots of other variations of prospects) and we have a rotation next year of Gray, Berrios, Santana, May with Hughes, Mejia, Sledgers, Romero, and probably Jorge competing for the 5th spot next season  and if Thorpe is kept he could be up by the end of the season.

 

On a side note I think Dozier may have a depressed market as a free agent since there won't be so many suitors so I can see him signing a 4 year 48-60 million contract and I doubt it gets to 60 probably in the low 50's unless it gets to 5 years then 70-75 is possible, but again how many teams will want to pay that for a second baseman?  only LA maybe if the one they acquired falters.  I say that to say I think we have a good chance of retaining Dozier and we do have lots of middle IF prospects in the minors.

 

also note We have 4 more seasons of Sano after this 1, before he leaves as a Free agent.  Why not try to win in all 5 of them between now and then?

 

and last note or question to ponder as well.  Will we be having 40 man roster issues as more of our depth gets up the ladder?  I mean will we have to leave some good talent off the 40 man roster this year and expose to rule 5 draft?  who all needs to be added this year?  If we stand to loose talent that way we might as well trades and consolidate some prospects into players we can keep for several years.

 

and FYI in the chatroom today at MLBtraderumors.com they mentioned putting out a Sonny Gray piece tomorrow for who it would make sense to acquire him.  There are 9 teams featured so be on the lookout and see what they think we should do.

[Loosey]

 

Except you get those three years as part of the package. If you are buying ANY really good free agent, it is likely you are paying for 1-2 years of decline. The question is, are the first 2-4 years worth the decline years? For me, it would depend on the price. 

It also depends on if he is already in the decline?  If so you are buying based on the past and are pay for his decline.

[Mike Sixel]

 

It also depends on if he is already in the decline?  If so you are buying based on the past and are pay for his decline.

 

correct. But like I said, if his HR and LoB numbers go back to normal (his other numbers are), he's a good pitcher again. No one will know until the future!

[70charger]

 

correct. But like I said, if his HR and LoB numbers go back to normal (his other numbers are), he's a good pitcher again. No one will know until the future!

 

Time machines: the next moneyball!

 

brb, calling Billy Beane.

[yarnivek1972]

Time machines: the next moneyball!

 

brb, calling Billy Beane.

Where's Doc Brown...

[Guest]

Check his BB rates out.

Real good over the last month. Three walks and four hits over 11.1 innings. 17 K's.

[nicksaviking]

I would be curious to know if some of the same people saying Santana is too old to be relied on are saying go after Arrietta. Arrietta is only 3 years younger, meaning if he signs a 5 year deal he would be older at the end of it than Santana will be after next season.

I'm not interested in Arrietta barring some kind of unlikely short-term, get-back-on-the-market kind of deal.

 

But I still wouldn't begrudge anyone who is interested in him for not also wanting Santana. These are different pitchers and three years in age is huge.

[jimbo92107]

 

Arrieta was terrible when he played in the AL.

Wasn't that before Arrieta started doing pilates? He credits these intense core exercises with his improvement as a pitcher. 

[yarnivek1972]

I'm not interested in Arrietta barring some kind of unlikely short-term, get-back-on-the-market kind of deal.

 

But I still wouldn't begrudge anyone who is interested in him for not also wanting Santana. These are different pitchers and three years in age is huge.

Yes, but no one is suggesting that Santana be extended further than he is already signed. At which point he will be 35, 36 if he vests his option. If Arrietta signs a 5 year deal after this season, he'll be 36 in the last season of it. So, by trading Santana and signing Arrietta you maybe extend the window for this core of offensive players by a year or two. And that's if Arrietta is as good as Ervin, which is by no means certain. He certainly won't be as cheap.

[Brandon Warne]

So, uh....rough night tonight

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

So, uh....rough night tonight

Gray indeed allowed 5 runs in the first (to the Astros, so Twins fans can relate!), but zero after that through 5 innings.

[kab21]

 

I think it's unlikely that he will be dominant again considering his recent comments to the press that he is tired and overworked + his age.

 

He (Arrieta) was very good in his peak years.

He was merely 'very good'. Are you kidding? This is what I am talking about picking holes in any starter (trade/FA target or not).

 

I would be curious to know if some of the same people saying Santana is too old to be relied on are saying go after Arrietta. Arrietta is only 3 years younger, meaning if he signs a 5 year deal he would be older at the end of it than Santana will be after next season.

There really hasn't been an argument to go after Arrieta in this thread. The argument in this thread is that some people think he has only been 'very good' and pretty much every pitcher in baseball would be picked apart similar to Gray has. Arrieta has been completely dominant and it had nothing to do with him pitching in the NL. He may or may not be on the downward slope (certainly debatable). 

 

 

[old nurse]

Arrietta is an example of the frailty of pitching.  Speed is down. Command is down.  GB% is down. OF defense behind him is worse than before hence making his numbers worse.  Arrietta belongs in the discussion of trades because  if they fall further behind the Brewers Arrietta is a free agent at the end of the year. Sell him and sign him is their MO. The Twins are not going to rent him, but somebody might.

[Doomtints]

 

He was merely 'very good'. Are you kidding? This is what I am talking about picking holes in any starter (trade/FA target or not).

 

This is a very interesting viewpoint, that saying a player was "very good" is disparaging and nitpicking.

[kab21]

 

This is a very interesting viewpoint, that saying a player was "very good" is disparaging and nitpicking.

Arrieta was one of the best pitchers in baseball the last 3 seasons with the Cubs.

 

2.42 ERA (2nd in baseball) with a 2.72 FIP (Tied for 2nd) and a 3.01 xFIP (5th)

 

Yes, it is disparaging to call that very good. It is elite and he wasn't going to simply revert back to his Baltimore days if he moved to the AL.

His age is valid concern going forward but he has been an elite pitcher (until this season). No doubts about it.