Article: Twins Daily Official MLB Draft Day 1

[Willihammer]

 

One more. 1st college bat taken since 2008:

 

Pedro Alvarez

Dustin Ackley

Christian Colon

Anthony Rendon

Mike Zunino

Kris Bryant

Kyle Schwarber

Dansby Swanson

Nick Senzel

If the Twins took McKay at 1-1, got Burger to fall to 35 and somehow Rooker as well at 37, they'd have three of the best college bats locked up. I'd be pretty stoked by that.

[Loosey]

 

With Terry Ryan out and a new guard in, I thought Twindom might not hear "it's coming down to money" for the first pick overall, but I guess that's wrong.

I don't think it's coming down to money means they are being cheap.  I think they are speaking terms of being able to get a guy to take less in order to pay someone later on more.  Either way the team will be paying out the entire allottment.

[Oldgoat_MN]

I wonder if the money angle is why Wright is out of the conversation.

Or maybe they don't like his mechanics.

Guess we'll probably never know.

Interesting and frustrating.

It's like the longest bullpen session of the year!

[mikecgrimes]

Anyone talking about money in the context of finances and not strategy is missing the point big time.  The Yankees Cubs Dodgers and Red Sox in this particular draft would all be trying the same thing.  Hunter Greene is good but as far as i can tell he is not so good you just use the #1 pick and the entire slot on him and call it a day without considering and potentially pulling off other options.

[Mike Sixel]

Some interesting stuff here:

 

Note the drop off after pick 25 or 30 or so....

 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/moneyballs-draft-advice-has-outlived-its-usefulness/

 

[mikecgrimes]

 

 

No one is saying that, but both of those pitchers were drafted ahead of the batter anyway. All I'm suggesting is that someone who argues that you should draft pitching has a merited argument. You're not winning a WS without it.

 

Except for this the Angles can get virtually any of the leading cy young candidates today with one phone call if they offer Mike Trout.

[jimbo92107]

 

Agreed. The velocity era isn't ending anytime soon. Every team is acquiring pitchers that throw 95+. Meanwhile our favorite team is targeting someone who throws 90. Awesome. 

Exactly. McKay has a chance to be a mediocre middle rotation guy for a decade. Yay!

Or, he could be an average 1B with a good bat. Yay!

 

Great pick...for a National League team.

Edited June 12, 2017 by jimbo92107

[drjim]

I think we basically agree, by question is if none of the other top 4 or 5 give them a bargain do they end up with their true #1 and is that Greene.

I wouldn't be surprised if Greene is not their #1, no matter the money. He's not unanimous.

[KirbyDome89]

 

Anyone talking about money in the context of finances and not strategy is missing the point big time.  The Yankees Cubs Dodgers and Red Sox in this particular draft would all be trying the same thing.  Hunter Greene is good but as far as i can tell he is not so good you just use the #1 pick and the entire slot on him and call it a day without considering and potentially pulling off other options.

For me it is in the context of strategy. I would rather they sign the best player at 1-1 regardless of how much of their allotment it uses up. 

[John Bonnes]

Do we have any names of mid 1st round picks that the Twins could have special interest in if they do save money with that first pick?

[Mike Sixel]

 

Do we have any names of mid 1st round picks that the Twins could have special interest in if they do save money with that first pick?

 

gotta be a HS pitcher, I'd think.

[mikecgrimes]

 

Exactly. McKay has a chance to be a mediocre middle rotation guy for a decade. Yay!

Or, he could be an average 1B with a good bat. Yay!

 

Great pick...for a National League team.

 

The idea of having him or Greene play the field 3 of the other 4 days intrigues me but the odds that once they are in triple A they are still prospects in both respects are slim and doing both probably hurts their ability to do the other.

[Bob Sacamento]

 

I don't think it's coming down to money means they are being cheap.  I think they are speaking terms of being able to get a guy to take less in order to pay someone later on more.  Either way the team will be paying out the entire allottment

Oh I know exactly what they meant but if the team takes someone they don't identify as the BPA in order to hopefully get a draftee faller then yes it's being cheap.  And they better spend their allotment (14,156,800) and then a little more as they can go up to 5% over (so ~14.8M) before they're penalized a draft pick.

[mikecgrimes]

 

 

For me it is in the context of strategy. I would rather they sign the best player at 1-1 regardless of how much of their allotment it uses up. 

 

Do you ever play fantasy football auction drafts, you'll quickly learn how bad of an approach that is.

[jimbo92107]

 

I get that. I'd be way more excited if he sat in the mid-90's, but with his other pitches and his control, I can see him at the top of a rotation. A lot of pitchers succeed throwing 90-94.

In fact, we see Erv Santana's fastball averaging about 92-93 these days. Problem is, we also know Santana can dial it up to 96, and so do hitters. That's one factor that makes his pinpoint 93 heat more effective, and the fact that he can drop his off-speed stuff on a gum wrapper. 

 

If McKay's 91-92 heat (fading after 60 pitches) has pinpoint accuracy, and his off-speed stuff is similarly accurate, then we have a possible Maddux on our hands, and a big yay for that. If not, then we have a middle rotation guy, which is not what you want from the draft's very first pick. With that, you should get somebody better than Jose Berrios, somebody that will be right near the top of BA's top mlb prospect list. 

[mikecgrimes]

The key to me is where does the couple million dollar advantage pay off most, If you sprinkle in an extra $500,000 every pick you can be getting top 50 talent even in the 5th or 6th round.  At the top of the draft it is only an advantage in years of a clear #1.

[Mike Sixel]

Fangraphs "last" mock up.

 

they will also be doing a google hanouts thing.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/fangraphs-2017-mock-draft-final-edition/

 

[Bob Sacamento]

 

Do we have any names of mid 1st round picks that the Twins could have special interest in if they do save money with that first pick?

Some prep pitchers that look to fall are Hans Crouse, Blayne Enlow, Blake Heatherly, Alex Scherff, some are saying Baz though I doubt he drops that low.

Edited June 12, 2017 by Bob Sacamento

[KirbyDome89]

 

Do you ever play fantasy football auction drafts, you'll quickly learn how bad of an approach that is.

This draft has nothing to do with football or fantasy. 

[Sweetwater]

I've flipped to Greene again. Lock it in,

[Steve Lein]

 

Do we have any names of mid 1st round picks that the Twins could have special interest in if they do save money with that first pick?

 

Would definitely be HS pitchers. Shane Baz is the (pipe)dream, but there has been smoke on him. MN guy Carlson is probably next on the list you'd want that for but not that likely, either.

 

There will be guys that fall. They can shoot for the guy they want, but that will be fluid as the picks roll in.

 

[Vanimal46]

Sigh... After 13 pages, I'm mentally prepared to be disappointed tonight hearing Brendan McKay's name selected. 

[Roaddog]

I'm going Lewis. Just a hunch

[King]

 

Sigh... After 13 pages, I'm mentally prepared to be disappointed tonight hearing Brendan McKay's name selected. 

It sucks that there is no talent at the top of this draft like a Harper or Strasburg. Not a great year to have the first overall pick but then again Moniak wasn't a stud 1st overall pick last year either.

 

Edited June 12, 2017 by King

[jimmer]

The new FO management is either bold and willing to take risks, or it's a conservative, risk-adverse FO. 

[Vanimal46]

 

It sucks that there is no talent at the top of this draft like a Harper or Strasburg. Not a great year to have the first overall pick but then again Moniak wasn't a stud 1st overall pick last year either.

 

Yeah I would like to take the chance on Greene, Gore, or Wright. Out of the top 5 usual suspects on mock drafts, McKay was last on my preference list for what that's worth. 

[Vanimal46]

 

The new FO management is either bold and willing to take risks, or it's a conservative, risk-adverse FO. 

 

Sounds like the latter if the pick is McKay. 

[John Bonnes]

The devil is going to be in the details. If their strategy gets money that allows them to sign some prospect considerably up the chart from 35 and 37, you can argue that they did both: mitigate risk by getting more talented guys AND chased upside by getting higher quality players. 

[Comrade Bork]

 

Sigh... After 13 pages, I'm mentally prepared to be disappointed tonight hearing Brendan McKay's name selected. 

I've got an hour left to root for Greene.  Optimism holding strong!!    (cause why not lol)

[InfraRen]