Sano is struggling with the curve

[The_Phantom]

I haven't heard much talk of this year, but I have lost track of how many times in the last week and a half or so that Sano has struck out on the exact same pitch. Put a curve ball just off the plate away just below  the knees and Sano will go for it every single time. 

 

Sano is a big part of our team this year and pitchers have figured him out. He needs a steady diet of curveballs in BP until he can recognize that pitch, I'm a bit worried about how long that is going to go on

[Brock Beauchamp]

I think it's suspect to say pitchers have figured out Miguel. Over the past seven days (five games), he's just been kinda bad (.642 OPS). The seven days prior, he was very very good.

 

Yeah, he seems to struggle with the curve but he also struggles with the slider. So do lots of players.

 

We'll need more than a few games of data to draw a conclusion.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=12164&position=3B/DH#pitchvalues

 

I think people tend to forget that Miguel only has 900 career plate appearances. Yeah, he's gonna get tricked by MLB pitching from time to time as pitchers give him a different look because they're bloody terrified of the man.

[Mike Sixel]

Sano will put up top 20-25 WAR this year. Not worried. 

 

He's 19th in fWAR right now, if this if "figured out", I'm not worried.

[Twodogs]

"Straight ball hit very much, curve ball bats are afraid."  

[Willihammer]

Its pretty clear he's up there hunting fastballs and he will whiff at offspeed stuff- if its executed just right. I haven't seen many swings and misses at offspeed stuff more than an inch or two off the plate (or fastballs for that matter). His eye is very good and overall I can't find much fault with his approach.

[djvang]

Scouting reports get around quickly. How many times did Torii strike out on that low outside breaking pitch he couldn't reach with a canoe paddle?

[The_Phantom]

 

Scouting reports get around quickly. How many times did Torii strike out on that low outside breaking pitch he couldn't reach with a canoe paddle?

Agreed. His clearly have gotten around right now. Just hoping he makes some adjustments quickly. 

[Danchat]

Fun fact: Sano's walked 14 times in 15 games so far. He's always going to strike out a lot, but if he can keep taking this many walks, I won't be worried about him.

[h2oface]

Fun fact: Sano's walked 14 times in 15 games so far. He's always going to strike out a lot, but if he can keep taking this many walks, I won't be worried about him.

How many strikeouts looking? Walks can be expensive.

 

It seems that our bats, including Sano, are missing the mistakes right down the middle. Our pitchers seem to not be so lucky with the opposition bats. I guess it is only a mistake if the batter hits it?

[Mike Sixel]

 

How many strikeouts looking? Walks can be expensive.

It seems that our bats, including Sano, are missing the mistakes right down the middle. Our pitchers seem to not be so lucky with the opposition bats. I guess it is only a mistake if the batter hits it?

 

Sano is 19th in fWAR right now, what is it people are expecting?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Sano is 19th in fWAR right now, what is it people are expecting?

A combination of Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, Barry Bonds, and Mike Trout, apparently.

 

All Sano needs to do is play an up-the-middle position better than anyone in history, hit 74 homers in a season, keep the batting average at .407 or above, never miss a pitch he swings at, and throw a complete game shutout every fifth day.

 

At that point, at least 98% of Twins fans will be on board with the guy.

[The_Phantom]

Sano is 19th in fWAR right now, what is it people are expecting?

Where did he rank in that last week out of curiosity? Missing on the same pitch repeatedly for the last 6-7 games is nothing to be ignored.

[Pius Jefferson]

He's going to be seeing plenty of walks unless he grows inpatient at the plate.

[h2oface]

One can be onboard and still notice things that are happening. It doesn't have to be twisted into a condemnation.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Where did he rank in that last week out of curiosity? Missing on the same pitch repeatedly for the last 6-7 games is nothing to be ignored.

i should hope Rowson and Sano noticed and are working on it.

 

I don't know exactly what the threshold is for SSS alerts, but 7 games is definitely a SSS alert.

[The_Phantom]

This is apparently still a huge problem with Sano's game. He was up in the 9th with the bases loaded last night and flailed at two straight garbage pitches low and outside. Obviously we needed those insurance runs.

 

He could be such an elite hitter if he'd figure this out

[ashbury]

One can be onboard and still notice things that are happening. It doesn't have to be twisted into a condemnation.

Mod note: There's been hyperbole on both sides in this thread so far. "Every single time," "pitchers have figured him out," led things off, and later "still a huge problem". Leads to "hitting .407" and so forth, intended as a remedy but can escalate. Fortunately most of the posts have been more in the middle ground and backed up with evidence, and even the hyperbolic ones have been constructive. Let's just stick to the topic and try to avoid hinting that certain opinions aren't permissible.

[djvang]

 

This is apparently still a huge problem with Sano's game. He was up in the 9th with the bases loaded last night and flailed at two straight garbage pitches low and outside. Obviously we needed those insurance runs.

He could be such an elite hitter if he'd figure this out

Torii Hunter was never able to lay off the low outside slider. Until Sano learns to lay off the garbage he's going to keep getting garbage. 

[twinsnorth49]

 

This is apparently still a huge problem with Sano's game. He was up in the 9th with the bases loaded last night and flailed at two straight garbage pitches low and outside. Obviously we needed those insurance runs.

He could be such an elite hitter if he'd figure this out

Could be an elite hitter?

 

 

Wut?

[stringer bell]

The thing I've noticed is that the walks are down and his BA is now .270. He's got 25 homers and over 70 RBI. IMHO, that is very good, but not elite.

 

There's room for the big man to grow--as a hitter.

[Mr. Brooks]

Could be an elite hitter?

 

 

Wut?

I love Sano, and given he's still barely 24 years old, I think he will be an elite hitter someday.

But for now I think he's just a really good hitter, I don't think he's gained elite status yet.

To me, elite means one of the 5 or 6 best hitters in baseball.

He was that guy in April and May, unfortunately he's cooled off considerably since.

[bighat]

I was watching this yesterday - that low and outside pitch (fastball, curve, whatever) is a big problem for Sano right now. Would love to see him go the other way more often, but it seems like he's got HR on the brain right now.

[DJSim22]

 

I was watching this yesterday - that low and outside pitch (fastball, curve, whatever) is a big problem for Sano right now. Would love to see him go the other way more often, but it seems like he's got HR on the brain right now.

 

I agree, hes swinging and missing at low and outside junk as bad as Greg Gagne or Rich Becker did.  Let's hope he can adjust and lay off them.

[Twodogs]

It's probably a little more simple than all of this. He could just be in a slump right now. It's getting close to September, how many times has he played a full season in the bigs in his career? When he been hot and mashing he recognizes the pitch lays off of them and gets into hitter counts, when he's slumping a little he doesn't have the pitch recognition and doesnt lay off and ends up in a lot of pitcher counts. I don't think pitchers just all of the sudden realized oh snap, we've never tried throwing this guy a curve ball I wonder if that will get him out? I think soon he will bust out of his slump, he will recognize the secondary pitch, lay off it or foul it off and start mashing again. I mean when Polanco was going 4 for July I don't think anyone thought he couldn't hit one specific pitch, he was mired in a horrible slump at the time. JMO

[yarnivek1972]

Could be an elite hitter?

 

 

Wut?

I certainly wouldn't call his season elitle level. Mid .800s OPS. In terms of WAR he ranks SEVENTH among AL third basemen. That's barely above average. To me, elite level is an OPS in the mid .900 range or better. Sano has a BABIP of .385. Doesn't seem likely that he can keep that up forever, although for his career it's .365, over more than 1200 PA. So, maybe HE can. He certainly hits the ball hard enough. But it all comes back to strikeouts. His K rate in 2017 is not statistically different from either of the last two seasons. Roughly 35.5%. His BB rate is also unchanged from last year (roughly 10%) and down considerably from his rookie partial season.

 

I guess I was hoping to see more improvement. If this is who he is and who he will always be, I think that is a very big problem for the Twins. If he could cut his K rate to 20%, hell even 25%, he would be an MVP candidate. Clearly it has to be a focus point of the offseason. IMO the Twins won't be serious Championship contenders if Sano doesn't develop into an elite level hitter.

[Mr. Brooks]

Sano's offensive game is unchanged from last year? (Yarn from other thread)

His OPS is 80 points higher.

 

I agree, he's got a long ways to go to be an elite hitter, but at least give him credit for the 80 points of improvement he has made.

[yarnivek1972]

Sano's offensive game is unchanged from last year? (Yarn from other thread)

His OPS is 80 points higher.

 

I agree, he's got a long ways to go to be an elite hitter, but at least give him credit for the 80 points of improvement he has made.

Sano's OPS is also about 50 points lower thsn 2015. It perhaps would have been more accurate to say that there's been little, if any, improvement over the last TWO years. Also, nearly all of his OPS improvement this year is tied to his 35 point batting average increase which is in turn tied to his 60 point BABIP increase. So, one could argue, as I did, that there really hasn't been an improvement in his game, merely an improvement in his luck. As I said somewhere, his BABIP in 2017 is sky high (.385). Can he sustain that indefinitely? Probably not. His career BABIP is .365. Can he sustain that? Maybe. I'd say he's certainly capable of a BABIP of .330 to .350 for the next 5-7 years. But, without additional improvement, just a decrease in his BABIP next year to .350 drastically alters his batting average, on base, etc simply because he puts a relatively small number of balls in play.

[Old Twins Cap]

Sano leads the league in Ks.  His ABs are getting shorter.  He is swinging at pitcher's pitches.  Early in the season, he laid off those and took walks.

 

Sure, there's a precedence for what he is bringing right now:  Chris Carter, Adam Dunn, et al. 

 

But, no one made documentaries about those guys when they were 16.

 

He HAS to be more selective.  His Line Drive Rate is huge, --- when he hits the ball.

 

Compared to most players, he has to make only one adjustment:  swing at balls in the zone.

[Mike Sixel]

one article on him:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/is-miguel-sano-hurt-or-just-struggling/

 

[twinsnorth49]

 

I certainly wouldn't call his season elitle level. Mid .800s OPS. In terms of WAR he ranks SEVENTH among AL third basemen. That's barely above average. To me, elite level is an OPS in the mid .900 range or better. Sano has a BABIP of .385. Doesn't seem likely that he can keep that up forever, although for his career it's .365, over more than 1200 PA. So, maybe HE can. He certainly hits the ball hard enough. But it all comes back to strikeouts. His K rate in 2017 is not statistically different from either of the last two seasons. Roughly 35.5%. His BB rate is also unchanged from last year (roughly 10%) and down considerably from his rookie partial season.

I guess I was hoping to see more improvement. If this is who he is and who he will always be, I think that is a very big problem for the Twins. If he could cut his K rate to 20%, hell even 25%, he would be an MVP candidate. Clearly it has to be a focus point of the offseason. IMO the Twins won't be serious Championship contenders if Sano doesn't develop into an elite level hitter.

Fair enough, I guess I factor his age and the stretches where he does appear to be an elite hitter. No doubt his SO rate has to improve, which I think it will next season, there is plenty of time for adjustment.