Sano is struggling with the curve

[Major League Ready]

 

Sano had demonstrated he is capable of recognizing pitching and practicing good plate discipline.  Lately he looks like Rosario did last year and the first 60 or 70 games this season.  ML pitchers wont throw you anything good if you are willing to swing at stuff off the plate. They fear Sano enough to try to get him to chase in every at AB.  Lately he has done opposing pitchers a favor and swung at a lot of junk.  It is very obvious the scouting report is breaking balls off the plate.  Rosario finally got sick of looking pitchers making him look bad.  Hopefully Sano will become more consistent in terms of plate discipline because opposing pitchers are always going to try to get him to bite.

 

He could also develop a 2 strike approach.  It gets frustrating watching him swing for the fence on tough pitches with a couple runners in scoring position.

[kab21]

A fair amount of regression (and predicted by some) was expected from his Apr/May numbers when his BAPIP was >.450. It is frustrating to not see any progression on the K rate from season to season though.

 

One interesting stat is that he ranks 45th out of 157 batters in zone % (balls thrown in the strike zone). I would have expected that % to be much lower considering a relative lack of protection. Another surprise is that he is exactly average for chasing outside of the zone. He is actually quite selective but doesn't make a lot of contact when he swings (2nd to last in the majors). Joey Gallo and Aaron Judge have very similar numbers FWIW.

[Ncgo4]

It's easy to forget just how young Sano, Buxton & Rosario are. As to Sano, if he finally makes a commitment to getting in shape over the off season, he might not just be a solid player. Ho could be a very special, elite player. Did I just channel PJ Fleck?

[yarnivek1972]

It's easy to forget just how young Sano, Buxton & Rosario are. As to Sano, if he finally makes a commitment to getting in shape over the off season, he might not just be a solid player. Ho could be a very special, elite player. Did I just channel PJ Fleck?

Yes, Sano is young. But the hope would be to see gradual improvement in his pitch selection and K rate. That hasn't happened. In 2015, his K rate was 35.5%. 2016 was 36.0%. 2017 35.8%. Essentially exactly the same all three years. That to me is concerning.

 

We have seen improvement in Buxton and finally this year in Rosario - in roughly the same PA totals as Sano btw. Sano simply needs to do better. Or he does risk being grouped with hundreds of guys that hit HR but strike out at a horrendous rate.

[Loosey]

 

Sano's OPS is also about 50 points lower thsn 2015. It perhaps would have been more accurate to say that there's been little, if any, improvement over the last TWO years. Also, nearly all of his OPS improvement this year is tied to his 35 point batting average increase which is in turn tied to his 60 point BABIP increase. So, one could argue, as I did, that there really hasn't been an improvement in his game, merely an improvement in his luck. As I said somewhere, his BABIP in 2017 is sky high (.385). Can he sustain that indefinitely? Probably not. His career BABIP is .365. Can he sustain that? Maybe. I'd say he's certainly capable of a BABIP of .330 to .350 for the next 5-7 years. But, without additional improvement, just a decrease in his BABIP next year to .350 drastically alters his batting average, on base, etc simply because he puts a relatively small number of balls in play.

Sano's BABIP is always going to be higher than (.330-.350)  When he makes contact he is averaging 94MPH of exit velocity.  If you hit the ball that hard you are going to get a hit more often than a normal hitter.  .385 might be a touch high to maintain, but the .365 he has for his career could be maintained, if he does limit strikeouts he will be one of the most feared hitters in baseball if he isn't already.

[yarnivek1972]

By early next season (mid May I project) Miguel Sano is going to crack the top 1000 of all time strikeouts.  In less than 1500 at bats.  Currently, at 557 tied for 998 are Charlie Neal and Pat Borders.  Miguel is at 461.  If he has a 15 year career or so, he likely passes Reggie.  The only active player threatening him now is Mark Reynolds.  But he would likely need 6 or 7 more seasons.  Giancarlo Stanton could threaten Reggie too if he plays long enough.  But Stanton's K rate is significantly lower than Sano's.

[drjim]

 

By early next season (mid May I project) Miguel Sano is going to crack the top 1000 of all time strikeouts.  In less than 1500 at bats.  Currently, at 557 tied for 998 are Charlie Neal and Pat Borders.  Miguel is at 461.  If he has a 15 year career or so, he likely passes Reggie.  The only active player threatening him now is Mark Reynolds.  But he would likely need 6 or 7 more seasons.  Giancarlo Stanton could threaten Reggie too if he plays long enough.  But Stanton's K rate is significantly lower than Sano's.

 

He won't keep this pace for 15 years. Ideally he makes the necessary adjustment or he won't make it that long when his bat starts to slow.

[drjim]

I'm optimistic he drops the k rate, but I suppose it is not inevitable.

 

Any chance this team has to sneak into the playoffs this year or really compete starting next year starts with him bumping up his performance a little. He's plenty good as is, but he needs to be great.

[yarnivek1972]

He won't keep this pace for 15 years. Ideally he makes the necessary adjustment or he won't make it that long when his bat starts to slow.

Adam Dunn's K rate actually went up through his career. Although, it was only above 31% in 2 of his 14 seasons. So, clearly one can last with that kind of hitter profile.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Sano is really struggling, and I wonder if Molitor is doing him a disservice continually playing him every game and batting him fourth

[FunnyPenguin]

It's not like he's just struggling with stuff outside the zone either, he just can't make contact with anything.  I could probably go out their and breeze my nasty 65 mph fastball that profiles closely to Giminez's past him

[drjim]

Adam Dunn's K rate actually went up through his career. Although, it was only above 31% in 2 of his 14 seasons. So, clearly one can last with that kind of hitter profile.

Dunn also walked much more and topped 38 hrs 8 times.

 

Sano has work to do if he can't drop his k rate.

[caninatl04]

I concur that Sano needs a change of pace-- move him down in the order, DH-him, etc.  Maybe move Rosario into clean up.

 

... and dare we move Bucks up?

[Ncgo4]

At 270, or so, Sano is one of the heaviest if not THE heaviest 3rd basemen of all times. It's a position that puts very serious physical demands on it's practicioners. Is it any wonder that Miguel hits real well for a week or 10 days and then seems to just run oughta gas? He's now 24, this tendency will not get better when he's 25, 26 or 27.

 

The worst part of this is it seems like no one else in the team wants himself or his team to succeed more than Sano does. The problem is that as soon as next year he will self-assign himself to the role of DH. It's a shame, but someone that weighs as much as a small Shetland Pony is not going to play in the field.

[yarnivek1972]

At 270, or so, Sano is one of the heaviest if not THE heaviest 3rd basemen of all times. It's a position that puts very serious physical demands on it's practicioners. Is it any wonder that Miguel hits real well for a week or 10 days and then seems to just run oughta gas? He's now 24, this tendency will not get better when he's 25, 26 or 27.

 

The worst part of this is it seems like no one else in the team wants himself or his team to succeed more than Sano does. The problem is that as soon as next year he will self-assign himself to the role of DH. It's a shame, but someone that weighs as much as a small Shetland Pony is not going to play in the field.

Pablo Sandoval is not exactly a light weight. I don't know what he weighs, but he's probably a head shorter than Sano.