Article: Analyzing Minnesota's Early Season Schedule

[Cody Christie]

Baseball is finally back... well almost. Twins fans are eager to put memories of last year's 103-loss season behind them. Building off a young core, Minnesota hopes many players take the next step. There will be many factors that contribute to the team's 2017 campaign but a fast start could help the team avoid a repeat of last year's poor performance.

 

Most of the first month of the season is filled with battles against AL Central foes. In fact, the club only has three games outside of the division. These contests will be critical to understanding where Minnesota fits in the divisional pecking order.Kansas City Royals

Home Series: 4/3, 4/5-4/6: Road Series: 4/28-4/30

The Twins struggled against the Royals last season with a combined 4-15 record. Three of their four wins against Kansas City came at Target Field. Minnesota pitchers allowed 124 runs against the 2015 World Series Champions. Minnesota's 65 runs scored was also their lowest total against any inter-divisional opponent.

 

Minnesota will see the Royals top three starters (Danny Duffy, Ian Kennedy, and Jason Hammel) in the first series. Ervin Santana gets the Opening Day nod as he posted a 4.55 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP against Kansas City last year. Hector Santiago fared even worse than Santana. He had a 10.93 ERA in three starts. Kyle Gibson faced the Royals three times and had a 6.75 ERA with a 1.85 WHIP.

 

Chicago White Sox

Road Series: 4/7-4/9: Home Series: 4/14-4/16

Minnesota's first road series of the year will come on the south-side of Chicago. The Twins went 7-12 against the White Sox last year including three road victories. Twins batters were outscored by 12 runs in those games (86 to 98) but that was the team's second highest run total in inter-divisional games.

 

Chicago went into rebuilding mode this off-season by trading away Chris Sale and Adam Eaton for a boat full of prospects. Lucas Giolito and Yoan Moncada will be names to watch in the years to come. For now, the Twins will have to hope their young core can find a way to win against one of the team's biggest rivals.

 

Detroit Tigers

Road Series: 4/11-4/13: Home Series: 4/21-4/23

The Tigers held Minnesota a 4-15 record during the 2016 campaign. All four of Minnesota's wins came in Detroit so the Twins will need to find a way to beat the Tigers at Target Field. Detroit scored 107-runs against Twins pitchers and Minnesota only saw 69 runs scored. Six of the team's first 22 games come against Detroit so the Twins will need to solve Detroit's curse in a hurry.

 

Detroit saw a rebound year in 2016 from many players in their core. Miguel Cabrera, Ian Kinsler, and Justin Verlander all looked like they were back to their old tricks. They finished in second place in the division and they have a chance to make a big step forward this year. It probably won't be enough to catch Cleveland but weirder things have happened in the baseball world.

 

Cleveland Indians

Home Series: 4/17-4/20

The defending AL Champions are the only divisional team the Twins play once in the season's first month. However, it is their longest series of the month (four games) and it does come at Target Field. Even with Cleveland running through the Central last season, Minnesota posted a 9-10 record against the Tribe while matching them in runs scored.

 

Cleveland rode tremendous pitching to being within a game of winning the World Series. This could result in a couple different directions for the coming season. The team could have a chip on their should and ride this momentum back to baseball's highest level. On the other hand, the team might not be able to overcome their October collapse and end up not living up to this year's lofty expectations.

 

Texas Rangers

Road Series: 4/24-4/26

Minnesota played two series against Texas in 2016 and won both of them. They finished with a 5-2 record and their .714 winning percentage, their highest total against any team. The Twins averaged almost nine runs per game while allowing less than 4.5 runs per game. Minnesota had their two highest run producing games (17 and 15 runs) against Texas.

 

Even though the Rangers struggled against Minnesota, the club won 95 games and finished in first place in the AL West. Texas did this while struggling in multiple areas of the game. Only the Twins and Athletic allowed more runs. It seems likely for the Rangers to regress in 2017 and the Twins will need to take advantage this fall back to the back.

 

Minnesota finished 7-17 during last April. How will the club fare in the season's first month? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

 

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[Rhino and Compass]

Call me crazy, but I don't think they will lose the first 9 games of the season this year. Even a 4-5 start will make the whole season that much more palatable

[akmanak]

Every year I am optimistic about the start of the season. You have to be when you are a fan or you would hate this team.

 

I like the schedule and I believe we will sweep against the Royals.

[DaveW]

Personally, I am jealous of the Royals early season schedule.

[rukavina]

22/25 April games in the Midwest?  I know there are some open days, but I would guess a handful of rainouts.

 

[caninatl04]

Its hard to believe that a 1-8 start would actually be an improvement.

 

If counting on my fingers can be trusted, that's what, 25 games?  Normally, I would guess 10-15, but given the weakness of the division, how about 12-13?

 

And yes, the O/U on these games should be, what, 12? (Actually, I'm expecting to see a lot of 8 1/2 O/U's)

[Danchat]

Our first non-divisional game isn't until April 24th... it would be nice to have a series with a non AL-Central team in the first three weeks.

[TonyInOmaha]

I'm seeing a lot of cynicism after the 25-man roster has been set, so it'll be interesting to see what people predict for April.

 

Having an early season schedule heavy with AL Central teams should only help since the division is pretty weak with the Royals down, White Sox rebuilding, and Tigers a big question mark for me.

 

I say the club stays right around .500 in the 12-14 win range.

[wavedog]

With the division games we should get off to a decent start but I am still feeling the burn from last season.  So seeing as we have not changed much from last year's approach - we will try to best last year's start and go 0-22 for April with 3 rainouts giving us some blessed relief from the losses. Now that I have set that low expectation anything else will be a plus for me.  I aim very low.

 

[killertwinfan]

2-7, 3-6 after the first 9, keeps the door open for a 70 win season. I think it is an extremely remote possibility of going 0-9 again butIf this young group gets down on themselves early, we are in for another 100 loss season.  

[Mike Sixel]

10 or so wins is my prediction for April. 

[Dave The Dastardly]

Hope springs eternal. Especially if you're a Twins fan. So this spring I'm hoping the Twinks won't be eternally in the Central cellar. 

 

Funny, it just occurred to me that my friends think I'm an optimist. But when it comes to the Twins, my beer mug is always two thirds empty.

 

Maybe if I got hypnotized...

[Dantes929]

It looks a little friendlier than some years.   Never cared for facing Detroit in the first series back when they had the top rotation.   Hopefully miss Verlander first time around.     Going to cheer them on in the opener.    Hopefully get off to a good start.   Can't win em all if you don't win the first one.

[markos]

Assuming everyone adheres to a strict 5-man rotation over the course of the month, the Twins will end up missing Verlander, Carrasco and Hamels. They will face Quintana twice, and Darvish, Duffy, Salazar each once. Rodon is currently on the DL. Overall, probably an average slate considering the teams, but definitely could be worse.

 

Royals (Twins rotation number on bottom)
1,2,3,2,3,4 // Duffy only once
1,2,3,3,4,5
White Sox
4,5,1,5,1,2 // Rodon on DL. Get Quintana twice
4,5,1,5,1,2,
Tigers
3,4,5,2,3,4 // miss verlander
2,3,4,2,3,4
Rangers
5,1,2 // miss Hamels (currently #3) in rotation
5,1,2
Indians
3,4,5,1 // miss Carrasco
3,4,5,1

[TonyInOmaha]

Assuming everyone adheres to a strict 5-man rotation over the course of the month, the Twins will end up missing Verlander, Carrasco and Hamels.

 

That's a big assumption with so many off days early in the season. Plus, playing in AL Central cities in April comes with a high likelihood of some rain outs that increase the chance of skipping the #5 starter a time or 2.

[Walter's Whites]

Other than the White Sox (who could maybe fit in to this category), I see one problem for the Twins schedule.

 

Every team is better than us.

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

 

Other than the White Sox (who could maybe fit in to this category), I see one problem for the Twins schedule.

 

Every team is better than us.

At least on paper. That's one reason they actually suit up and play the games. (Of course the biggest reason is MONEY.)

[Circus Boy]

 

22/25 April games in the Midwest?  I know there are some open days, but I would guess a handful of rainouts   snowouts.

 

FTFY.

[akmanak]

What is scary is that the month of April can really decide our season pretty quickly.

[twinssporto]

First game we end up using 4 pitchers to eek out a win (the first opening day win in awhile). Second game we end up using 7 pitchers to eek out another win.  Third game we end up using 8 pitchers to build on the momentum and get our third win in a row.  Same for game 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 and 9.  After a nine game win streak to start the season and averaging 8 pitchers a game, Molitor and the front office look like geniuses for taking 13 pitchers north.

 

We're gonna win Twins, we're gonna score! We're gonna win Twins what's that baseball score?....

 

 

[bighat]

I think the Twins finish April with a 9-16 record.  Molitor gets fired by June 1.  

[BoofBonser]

 

I think the Twins finish April with a 9-16 record.  Molitor gets fired by June 1.  

I don't see him being fired unless it's another 100 loss season... and that would be at the end of the year