Lindbergh: Buxton a Breakout Candidate

[Seth Stohs]

Ben Lindbergh from The Ringer is calling Byron Buxton the breakout king for 2017. 

 

He's struggled to transition to the big leagues. Terry Ryan and Doug Mientkieiwicz admitted he wasn't ready when he was called up, but he is poised to break out in a big way in 2017. 

 

https://theringer.com/2017-mlb-preview-minnesota-twins-byron-buxton-breakout-season-9da46c261223#.5se1nzkb7

 

He's been a prospect for so long, people think his development has been slow, and you could make that argument. 

 

 

Buxton has to be there, because he was, until recently, a top prospect — no, not a top prospect, the top prospect. Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, and MLB.com all ranked him no. 1 in 2014 and kept him in their top two in each of the next two springs. The raves matched the rankings: In 2014, then-Baseball Prospectus prospect writer (and current Cubs special assistant to the president and GM) Jason Parks reported that a non-Twins executive had told him Buxton had a Torii Hunter floor and a Willie Mays ceiling. The tool grades started at 60 (for power) on the 20–80 scouting scale and climbed higher from there. And last September, following his fourth promotion to the majors, Buxton appeared to deliver on the hype, batting .287/.357/.653 with nine home runs to go with his usual top-of-the-scale speed and defense in center, and tying for the major league lead in WAR.

 

[theBOMisthebomb]

The increase in media coverage gives the illusion that the development of Buxton has taken longer than it should have.  Back in the before the internet days, even diehard fans such as Twins Daily reader types, would have heard much less on a prospect like Buxton instead of wall to wall coverage from the day he was signed that we get now.  It would be a game changer for this organization if Buxton really is the breakout king of 2017.  

[mikelink45]

Let's hope.  His development is slower than fans would like, but not unreasonable for most MLB players.  Only a few, like Trout, can turn it around so fast at such a high level, and I know we all hoped that Buxton might be at that level.  I continue to hope that he will be on the Willie Mays track.  Here are the stats for Mays first two years:

Willie Mays Batting Stats for Years 1951 to 1952
Year Tm PA G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TB GDP HBP SH 
1951-1952 NYG 667 155 591 76 157 24 9 24 91 11 5 73 77 .266 .349 .459 .808 116 271 13 3 1 
 

That is Willie Mays - .266 average for two years. 274 his rookie year and 236 his sophomore season.  

 

[gunnarthor]

Well, if I'm looking at his ST stats correctly, Buxton has 10 hits and 8 of them are extra bases and a 7% walk rate and 17% K rate. So that seems promising in very SSS.

[Han Joelo]

Just ran across this article myself and came to share it, but thankfully Seth had beaten me to it.  Great article for Buxton fans.  This could be a fun year. 

 

Lindbergh's take on Chad Allen's reluctance to talk about the Twin's removal of Buxton's leg kick was interesting.  Sorry, no quote...

[drjim]

I still think the Hunter floor, Mays ceiling applies.

 

Injuries really set him back.

[mickeymental]

check out lindbergh's amusing book (cowritten with sam miller) called "the only rule is it has to work," which chronicles their efforts at actually running an independent minor league team. most enjoyable:

 

http://theonlyruleisithastowork.com/

[HitInAPinch]

If Buxton get's even close to a Torii Hunter level, it'll be a successful year.

[Jham]

When Bux was going crazy last fall, he was still striking out 35% of the time. Seems just as likely to go through a Kepler like regression as break out...

[Twins33]

When Bux was going crazy last fall, he was still striking out 35% of the time. Seems just as likely to go through a Kepler like regression as break out...

True, but as gunnarthor pointed out, he has been looking better this spring training.

 

Yes it's "just" spring training but last year during spring training he was at 34% k and 5% bb. This year so far he is at 18% k and 9% bb. So maybe, hopefully, he's figured something out.

[Jham]

True, but as gunnarthor pointed out, he has been looking better this spring training.

 

Yes it's "just" spring training but last year during spring training he was at 34% k and 5% bb. This year so far he is at 18% k and 9% bb. So maybe, hopefully, he's figured something out.

Let's hope! He's really talented and super fun to watch. Seems like a genuinely good guy. Humble and firey at the same time. Even if he's taken a step, the league will certainly adjust as well. Perhaps I'm a little cautious because of how bad he struggled initially.

[Vanimal46]

I give Buxton credit last year for continuing to have some success while he was getting his swing and mechanics tweaked every week. Parker is better than me at addressing this, but Buxton would get sent down to AAA, get his leg kick back and start swinging for the fences. When he got called back up, the leg kick was gone within 3-4 games, and he was told to hit the ball on the ground. 

I place more blame on the coaching staff for not having an agreed upon plan for Buxton last year to develop his swing. 

 

Keep the leg kick, keep swinging for the fences, and they may have a #3 hitter on their hands for the next 4-5 years. 

[Willihammer]

Saying Buxton has a Torii Hunter floor is really not fair, to Buxton or Hunter.

[laloesch]

 

I still think the Hunter floor, Mays ceiling applies.

Injuries really set him back.

 

That's one heck of a ceiling but i like the thinking.

[Mike Sixel]

I am going with 3.86754623 WAR, give or take...

 

I think he's going to be quite good this year.

[Doomtints]

Buxton is due.

 

Nevertheless, add this to a long line of predictions of his imminent "breakout."

[drjim]

Important thing to remember about Hunter is he didn't really break out until he was 25/26. Buxton is 23 this year. Way ahead of the curve. Just needs to stay healthy.

 

I would never predict that Buxton has the career length of Hunter, but I very much expect significantly better peak seasons.