Dozier Trade Discussion Thread

[nicksaviking]

 

Also, the market for Dozier is nonexistent, so why would I bid against myself and give up my top pitching prospects. 

 

Because it's not an auction. The Twins don't have to give him away.

 

I want a trade to happen, but if the Dodgers are stubbornly sticking with a lowball offer, I'm not above keeping him even if only to show the Dodgers that they aren't going to get a bargain simply because luck and happenstance are working for them by eliminating other suitors.

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

 

Lol yeah. It was a joke. I would give Dozier, buxton, Tyler Jay and Jorge for trout lol

Well, I wouldn't.  Trout may be the best, but you're trading one established star, one up-and-coming star and two good players for Trout. I'd rather have the four players, thank you.

 

[laloesch]

Either way this is all coming to an end soon.  Twins have stated as such out of fairness for Dozier.  I expect if we don't hear anything by Sunday it's dead dead.  Or until the Dodgers realize they NEED Dozier more than they initially thought, which would probably be mid season.

[Doomtints]

 

Either way this is all coming to an end soon.  Twins have stated as such out of fairness for Dozier.  

 

This is phase two of the "We want all offers ASAP" tactic.  "Gee, it's not fair to Dozier if we don't get a deal done now."

These are just words.  Time is not the key factor.  

[Doomtints]

 

I wonder why the idea that Dozier is going to significantly regress seems so obvious to so many. It appears that it is based on the 42 home runs. Therefore Dozier would not be that helpful to the Dodgers.

 

 

Who has been saying this?  I have seen this stated a few times now but I don't see anybody arguing that Dozier is about to turn into a pumpkin.  

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

 

You're essentially asking for two Jose Berrios and an MLB shortstop.

 

That's... Completely unreasonable.

 

The Twins couldn't agree to that deal quickly enough. Dozier is a very good player but he's not elite. Getting what boils down to two top 20 prospects and an MLB ready middle infielder is not going to happen.

Dozier is not "elite"? On several rankings, he is a top 3 second baseman. He's a right-handed batter – with significant power (42 homeruns in one season is nothing to sneeze at) and a very good defender. What does it take to be elite? 

[Oldgoat_MN]

Doomtints, on 05 Jan 2017 - 3:54 PM, said:
Who has been saying this?  I have seen this stated a few times now but I don't see anybody arguing that Dozier is about to turn into a pumpkin.

 

Significant regression from 6.5 WAR can still be well above pumpkin level.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Dozier is not "elite"? On several rankings, he is a top 3 second baseman. He's a right-handed batter – with significant power (42 homeruns in one season is nothing to sneeze at) and a very good defender. What does it take to be elite? 

If Dozier had even back-to-back seasons of 6 WAR, I'd probably consider him elite.

 

If he had three seasons of 5+ WAR, that's definitely elite. It's basically Ian Kinsler.

 

Dozier is a very good player coming off what might be a career year. I can't call him elite quite yet.

[Steve Lein]

 

Yes, the Dodgers play vs. the Giants and the Padres, two ballparks that are the toughest to hit hrs in. Those two ballparks have the fewest hrs hit there since 2010. 

 

I wonder if you read my follow-up comment? But I'll reiterate: S.F. and S.D. do not suppress home runs to dead pull LF. That is where Dozier hits them.

 

At&T Park was the toughest stadium in 2016 for HR's, except that dead pull LF is not why. Petco was slightly below average overall, but again, dead pull LF is not why. Arizona and Colorado were the 2nd and 3rd easiest HR stadiums, for obvious reasons.

 

If Dozier halves his HR output at home in Dodger Stadium, he's still going to hit 25+ overall, and potentially still lead the Dodgers as a team. He's also going to club a lot of 2B's, as he's had 33+ for the last four years. Some HR's in other stadiums besides Dodger Stadium, will also turn into 2B's. 

 

Instead of getting 42 HR's and 35 2B's, I can see ~40 2B's and ~30 HR's from him if he were in blue. That's essentially Joc Pederson-like production...At 2B...As a right-handed hitter.

 

That's likely the 2nd most valuable offensive player on the Dodgers behind Seager, and though that's a pretty high bar, it's not by as much as you think.

[LenBarson]

 

Dozier is not "elite"? On several rankings, he is a top 3 second baseman. He's a right-handed batter – with significant power (42 homeruns in one season is nothing to sneeze at) and a very good defender. What does it take to be elite?

 

We must fight the urge to squabble over what "elite" means (Joe Flacco is NOT elite). Whether he is or isn't doesn't matter. This is as much about timing than anything. If we get to May and Dozier is slashing .210/.270/.350, we'll be wishing we took the De Leon + ? when we could've.

[TyTY23]

 

We must fight the urge to squabble over what "elite" means (Joe Flacco is NOT elite). Whether he is or isn't doesn't matter. This is as much about timing than anything. If we get to May and Dozier is slashing .210/.270/.350, we'll be wishing we took the De Leon + ? when we could've.

Joe Flacco is definitely not elite and while were at it E. Manning is overrated too.

[gunnarthor]

 

We must fight the urge to squabble over what "elite" means (Joe Flacco is NOT elite). Whether he is or isn't doesn't matter. This is as much about timing than anything. If we get to May and Dozier is slashing .210/.270/.350, we'll be wishing we took the De Leon + ? when we could've.

I dunno.  If De Leon is suffering from shoulder soreness in May, we might wish we didn't trade for him.

[DocBauer]

Question...and forget the contract talk involved...Hughes was a tremendous pickup in 2014 and still OK in 2015. Do we really know how his injury that wiped out '16 could have affected him in '15?

 

Regardless, were Hughes coming off a minor injury, combined with Santana, bounce back from Gibson, Santiago on board along with May and Berrios, are we even having the trade Dozier discussion? Or does the context of the trade change greatly?

[gunnarthor]

 

Question...and forget the contract talk involved...Hughes was a tremendous pickup in 2014 and still OK in 2015. Do we really know how his injury that wiped out '16 could have affected him in '15?

Regardless, were Hughes coming off a minor injury, combined with Santana, bounce back from Gibson, Santiago on board along with May and Berrios, are we even having the trade Dozier discussion? Or does the context of the trade change greatly?

Shoulder injuries are pretty bad.  I think the Twins should expect nothing out of Hughes and then be happily surprised rather than relying on him.  Let him have a few ST starts but if his fastball is still topping out at 88, he's probably cooked.  

 

As for your other point, there are some Twin pitchers who should be better just because they weren't this bad.  And guys like Mejia and Berrios should help as well.  

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

 

Again, that doesn't seem to be the suggestion.  I bet Nightengale is referring to the Twins wanting "more" from the group of De Leon, Alvarez, Bellinger, and Buehler, just like Heyman and Neal were doing.

 

I don't know if anyone has provided information about the availability of Stewart, Calhoun, Sheffield, etc.

I don't know if this counts as "In the media" but here is a Dodger site suggesting the team could afford to give up De Leon and Stewart (at least) for Dozier.
http://dodgerblue.com/would-brian-dozier-twins-trade-prove-too-costly-dodgers-prospects/2016/12/29/

[TyTY23]

I guess we aren't the only ones who are having trouble evaluating Dozier.

Here's an excerpt from Olney's top ten 2nd basemen article:
The evaluators' split decisions on Dozier are fascinating and perhaps present a window into the Twins' efforts to market him. Some club officials placed him high on this last -- as high as No. 2 overall, ahead of the likes of Cano and Kinsler -- while others assigned him the No. 10 spot because they're not entirely convinced that what he did in the second half of 2016 is a sign of what's to come.

[gunnarthor]

 

I guess we aren't the only ones who are having trouble evaluating Dozier.

Here's an excerpt from Olney's top ten 2nd basemen article:
The evaluators' split decisions on Dozier are fascinating and perhaps present a window into the Twins' efforts to market him. Some club officials placed him high on this last -- as high as No. 2 overall, ahead of the likes of Cano and Kinsler -- while others assigned him the No. 10 spot because they're not entirely convinced that what he did in the second half of 2016 is a sign of what's to come.

That would make sense.  

[Twins33]

 

I guess we aren't the only ones who are having trouble evaluating Dozier.

Here's an excerpt from Olney's top ten 2nd basemen article:
The evaluators' split decisions on Dozier are fascinating and perhaps present a window into the Twins' efforts to market him. Some club officials placed him high on this last -- as high as No. 2 overall, ahead of the likes of Cano and Kinsler -- while others assigned him the No. 10 spot because they're not entirely convinced that what he did in the second half of 2016 is a sign of what's to come.

It's fine to not be convinced that his 2016 isn't a sign of what's to come. I think everyone in the world thinks that way.

 

Comparing Dozier to other qualified 2B from 2013-2015 (so not including his insane year)

 

4th in games played
3rd in PA
1st in HR
2nd in runs
5th in RBI
5th in SB
3rd in BB%
1st in ISO
22nd in BA
16th in OBP
5th in SLG
6th in WAR

 

That's a top 5-7 2B in all of baseball in my eyes. Add in the insane year and it likely gets even better. 2016 shouldn't be expected as "this is absolutely going to happen" but you also can't ignore what he's done the three years before that. He's underrated.

[Steve Lein]

 

I don't know if this counts as "In the media" but here is a Dodger site suggesting the team could afford to give up De Leon and Stewart (at least) for Dozier.
http://dodgerblue.com/would-brian-dozier-twins-trade-prove-too-costly-dodgers-prospects/2016/12/29/

 

I would definitely be on-board with the package suggested there:

 

De Leon, Stewart, Calhoun, and Sheffield

[DaveW]

Yeah like I said in 2014 he was a 4.7 WAr player, he was well on his way to that in 2015 before the injury issues derailed his 2nd half.

 

Dozier is hitting his peak age for power as well, his ISO has gone up every year. There is no reason why he can't be a 6 War player moving forward. IMo if healthy he will be atleast a 4.8-5.2 War per year player next 2 seasons.

 

People also never bring up his speed either. 20 SB is nothing to sneeze at.

[DaveW]

Also day one of joining the Dodgers Dozier becomes one of the Dodgers best two overall position players. Seager and Him.

[ashbury]

The evaluators' split decisions on Dozier are fascinating and perhaps present a window into the Twins' efforts to market him. Some club officials placed him high on this last -- as high as No. 2 overall, ahead of the likes of Cano and Kinsler -- while others assigned him the No. 10 spot because they're not entirely convinced that what he did in the second half of 2016 is a sign of what's to come.

This is why there is some upside to gambling on keeping Dozier and trying again to trade him in June or July. As an overly simple analysis, today a team such as the Dodgers might estimate him as a 3 WAR player for the 2 years on his contract. If a hot first half marks him as more like a 5 WAR player going forward, half a season remaining in 2017 plus all of 2018 is more WAR in total than 3 times 2.

[TyTY23]

 

Also day one of joining the Dodgers Dozier becomes one of the Dodgers best two overall position players. Seager and Him.

With all due respect, you don't know the Dodgers. 

[doscinco]

Also day one of joining the Dodgers Dozier becomes one of the Dodgers best two overall position players. Seager and Him.

Dozier isn't a better hitter or defender than Justin Turner. Base running and durability, maybe but he's not a better player.

 

I could also see Joc Pederson being better than Dozier going foward if he continues to improve like last season.

[Riverbrian]

 

I guess we aren't the only ones who are having trouble evaluating Dozier.

Here's an excerpt from Olney's top ten 2nd basemen article:
The evaluators' split decisions on Dozier are fascinating and perhaps present a window into the Twins' efforts to market him. Some club officials placed him high on this last -- as high as No. 2 overall, ahead of the likes of Cano and Kinsler -- while others assigned him the No. 10 spot because they're not entirely convinced that what he did in the second half of 2016 is a sign of what's to come.

 

Yep... The Dodgers get some skin in the game in terms of risk. 

 

However... The majority of the risk is with the Twins because Dozier will certainly improve the 2B position. 

[HawkeyeDodger]

 

Dozier isn't a better hitter or defender than Justin Turner. Base running and durability, maybe but he's not a better player.

I could also see Joc Pederson being better than Dozier going foward if he continues to improve like last season.

I agree about Turner, but Joc has a ways to go still.  The potential is there and youth is on his side.

[CiabanItReal]

 

It's true that a lot of what we as fans see is dated.  Sickels has slowly been rolling out his top team prospect lists as has fangraphs and BA.  But there isn't a new top 100 out yet. So we don't have a lot of new information.  But even among the different sites, there's a lot of disagreement.  Alvarez has some obvious flags but huge ceiling - nearly everyone agrees on that.  But how you weigh those is an open question.

 

At the end of the day, I figured Dozier would be worth a couple top 100 prospects and another piece or two - that seems comparable to the Gomez/Friers deal, the Zorbrist deal, the Giles deal.  I don't think two top 100 prospects means two top 30 prospects.  But I also know that I don't have an accurate read of all the prospects current valuation.  The Dodgers have 6 top 100 prospects per mlbpipeline's last list + Buehler, Sheffield, Stewart and Lux.  The teams should be able to come to some sort of agreement unless one side is just set on ripping off the other - which doesn't happen in real life that much.

IDK last year Todd Frazier with 2 years left on his contract only got the Reds one top 50-100 prospect back, and a major league ready OF with platoon problems and a weak arm that keeps him in LF.

And that top 50 prospect was a SS.

And now the whitesox can't trade him. Frazier is actually a crazy good comp for Dozier offensively and defensively, though he plays 3b instead of 2b. You could say Dozier being under guaranteed contract instead of in arbitration add's some extra value, and I'd agree but really how much?

Maybe if Dozier's 2016 was luck driven I could see this, but it wasn't. His ISO has improved for 4 straight years now, the power is real and not a fluke, the majority of his home runs were absolute bombs that would be clear the fences in pretty much every ball park in baseball, he is still in the prime of his career and 28-32 is when a players power typically hits it's peak as well.

He additionally is a + defender at 2B and a ++ runner on the base paths, you are looking at a guy who should at the very least give you 30 HR and close to 20 SB. That's pretty freaking good.

If he continues to hit like he did after his slow start in 2016, then you are looking at a guy who is knocking on the door for 50 HR next year.

His obp jumped 30 points despite no difference in his K or BB rates, while his slugging has been rising for four years, it saw a sudden spike over 100 points higher than his CAREER best at the time, no one is suggesting he's a bad player, but lets not pretend he's suddenly turned into something he isn't.

 

If he continues to his like he did last year he could hit 50? He couldn't even continue to hit like he did last year, or he would have hit 50. That's why his numbers dropped down to a respectable but not Ruthian, 263/.323/.561 basically Dozier had two insane months where he slugged over .700 June and August. He couldn't even sustain that pace in two consecutive months because his July looked more normal too, .242/.319/.505 I don't think anyone is optimistic enough to believe 50 is seriously on the table, not even the twins.

[Strato Guy]

Let's not forgot about Dozier's intangible qualities that cannot be quantified. He is well respected in the club house and is a great team player. WAR figures and other stats are not the only thing to consider when evaluating worth.

[drivlikejehu]

 

And now the whitesox can't trade him. Frazier is actually a crazy good comp for Dozier offensively and defensively, though he plays 3b instead of 2b. You could say Dozier being under guaranteed contract instead of in arbitration add's some extra value, and I'd agree but really how much?

 

Actually it's a horrible comp, because Frazier is 2 years older, has 1 year left that will be similar in cost to Dozier's 2 remaining years combined, and Frazier is coming off his worst full season while Dozier is coming off his best. 

 

They are similar players in some respects, but not in terms of trade value. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

I don't know if this counts as "In the media" but here is a Dodger site suggesting the team could afford to give up De Leon and Stewart (at least) for Dozier.

http://dodgerblue.com/would-brian-dozier-twins-trade-prove-too-costly-dodgers-prospects/2016/12/29/

No, that's not in the media, it's a fan blog. There has been plenty of fan speculation here and elsewhere about Stewart, Calhoun, etc. But no media reports about what role they are playing (if any) in the actual negotiations.