Dozier Trade Discussion Thread

[snepp]

Ok, let's pump the breaks on the chippy-ness a bit. This thread has been going pretty well for quite a while, let's not stop now.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Actually I speculated a similar trade on another forum of rabid MLB fans (including LA fans) and they actually all thought it was fair. I suggested Deleon, Alvarez, Sheffield(rated higher than Stewart) and a lottery ticket for dozier. Most thought it was fair. One fan of a rival al central team thought the dodgers got the better end of the trade just because dozier is a known commodity

Sheffield is not definitively rated higher than Stewart, see the Fangraphs article I referred you to earlier. Losing the MLB ready SP Stewart would almost certainly be more painful to the Dodgers than losing Sheffield, particularly when coupled with losing fellow MLB ready SP De Leon.

 

What forum was that? I don't think "rabid fans" necessarily means they are well-reasoned fans. A lot of "rabid fans" of MLB don't really follow the business or minor league aspects of the sport, so they pretty much always endorse whatever produces the most immediate and obvious MLB results.

[Otto von Ballpark]

So... closed group of internet commenters. Poster trying to prove a point can absolutely vouch for them being knowledgeable and impartial, though!

 

No source is perfect, but if your proposal is really that fair, I think you could cite a publically published, non-anonymous, non-homer piece advocating the same somewhere too. It's not like there's a shortage of such people writing about baseball -- many have been linked in these threads already, pegging a Dozier trade return as far less than what you are suggesting. (Even Dave's questionably optimistic source isn't going as far as your proposal.)

[AZTwin]

Sheffield is not definitively rated higher than Stewart, see the Fangraphs article I referred you to earlier. Losing the MLB ready SP Stewart would almost certainly be more painful to the Dodgers than losing Sheffield, particularly when coupled with losing fellow MLB ready SP De Leon.

 

What forum was that? I don't think "rabid fans" necessarily means they are well-reasoned fans. A lot of "rabid fans" of MLB don't really follow the business or minor league aspects of the sport, so they pretty much always endorse whatever produces the most immediate and obvious MLB results.

MLB.com rates Sheffield 6 spots ahead of Stewart. Fangraphs rates Stewart 3 spots ahead. When you get to these middling prospects, there is often a wider range of opinion and it's not surprising to see these discrepancies. Neither lights it up. I don't think it's unfair to say Sheffield is rated higher. He is by one publication and not by another.

 

And as I stated the forum is a closed group so it's not like I can just link it. But they are very knowledgeable. Many with connections within the media.

[BuxtonBandwagon]

I really enjoy seeing national writers opinions on trade ideas. That way there is no bias either way. Here is one from hardballscoop

http://www.scout.com/mlb/rumors/story/1742642-mlb-trade-ideas-week-1

De Leon+Calhoun+Buehler for Dozier

Seems good for both sides to me

[HawkeyeDodger]

 

I was reading the comments on today's MLBTR post, and one stuck out to me, noting that a year and a half of Nunez brought back a top #100 prospect with a 4/5 starter ceiling, but some think the Dodgers are reluctant to part with more than a top #50 prospect with a 3/4 ceiling. Interesting perspective. Never read the comments, btw. 

http://aarongleeman.com/2017/01/03/gleeman-and-the-geek-290-final-offers/

 

Interesting take from a Twins fan/blogger on Twitter.  I listened to their podcast while I was working tonight.  Not sure what the opinion is of this guy among Twins fans.  I do tend to agree with his take on his twitter page that some are highly underrating Deleon's value.  I've never heard of Deleon having a 3/4 ceiling.  It's been 2/3 from just about all scouting services/prospect reports.

[CiabanItReal]

 

Ok... hrs are not relevant statistics....Free agent HR leaders; C. Carter, and Trumbo, are barely drawing much interest in the free agent market, and Encarnacion had to settle for a short term contract.   

And the whitesox can't find a trade partner for Todd Frazier.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I really enjoy seeing national writers opinions on trade ideas. That way there is no bias either way. Here is one from hardballscoop

http://www.scout.com/mlb/rumors/story/1742642-mlb-trade-ideas-week-1

De Leon+Calhoun+Buehler for Dozier

Seems good for both sides to me

Thanks for the link. Not much of a track record on that writer (says it is the first installment of a trade ideas column) but it is interesting. Sounds like the writer might be a bit more eager to sell low on Buehler than the Dodgers would be, but that seems closer to an acceptable deal than AZ's proposal here.

[CiabanItReal]

 

MLB.com rates Sheffield 6 spots ahead of Stewart. Fangraphs rates Stewart 3 spots ahead. When you get to these middling prospects, there is often a wider range of opinion and it's not surprising to see these discrepancies. Neither lights it up. I don't think it's unfair to say Sheffield is rated higher. He is by one publication and not by another.

And as I stated the forum is a closed group so it's not like I can just link it. But they are very knowledgeable. Many with connections within the media.

MLB.com hasn't updated yet, Stewart could end up ranked ahead of Sheffield soon, and I think he has way less red flags than Sheffield, who pitched a few innings at the lowest levels, (which is Alverez biggest red flag) is a TJ survivor (which is JDL's red flag except JDL hasn't had surgery) and only has two pitches (which is Stewart's redflag, but stewart's slider looks at least average)

Also, I've often felt that Mayo tends to over rank recent draftees and signings. I.E. Bubba Starling was rated as one of the 20 best prospects in baseball right after being drafted.

[AZTwin]

http://aarongleeman.com/2017/01/03/gleeman-and-the-geek-290-final-offers/

 

Interesting take from a Twins fan/blogger on Twitter. I listened to their podcast while I was working tonight. Not sure what the opinion is of this guy among Twins fans. I do tend to agree with his take on his twitter page that some are highly underrating Deleon's value. I've never heard of Deleon having a 3/4 ceiling. It's been 2/3 from just about all scouting services/prospect reports.

Fangraphs has him as a 3 or 4. They give him 10 WAR for 6 years. For comparisons for twins fans, joe mays was with the twins for 6 years and had a slightly higher WAR. I think that's a fair projection. Certainly need much more than that. 10 WAR in 2 years is MUCH MUCH more valuable than 10 WAR in 6 years

[Otto von Ballpark]

And as I stated the forum is a closed group so it's not like I can just link it. But they are very knowledgeable. Many with connections within the media.

What media is informing their endorsement of your trade proposal?

 

What media is informing yours?

[TyTY23]

 

MLB.com rates Sheffield 6 spots ahead of Stewart. Fangraphs rates Stewart 3 spots ahead. When you get to these middling prospects, there is often a wider range of opinion and it's not surprising to see these discrepancies. Neither lights it up. I don't think it's unfair to say Sheffield is rated higher. He is by one publication and not by another.

And as I stated the forum is a closed group so it's not like I can just link it. But they are very knowledgeable. Many with connections within the media.

Since prospect development is not static as soon as top prospect list in published its really obsolete. Like someone mentioned MLB top prospects has not updated their list in a while, while FanGraphs just brought out theirs. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

Fangraphs has him as a 3 or 4. They give him 10 WAR for 6 years.

Projection/prediction is not "ceiling" though. That is what the other poster here was claiming.

[AZTwin]

Projection/prediction is not "ceiling" though. That is what the other poster here was claiming.

No but it's where he likely ends up. Best guess. We'd be fools to only consider the ceilings and not look at the percentages. I think that's the problem. People are selectively choosing to only point at the ceilings without acknowledging the chance that he never lasts in the majors.

[TyTY23]

 

Fangraphs has him as a 3 or 4. They give him 10 WAR for 6 years. For comparisons for twins fans, joe mays was with the twins for 6 years and had a slightly higher WAR. I think that's a fair projection. Certainly need much more than that. 10 WAR in 2 years is MUCH MUCH more valuable than 10 WAR in 6 years

And that the reason we all felt that JDL for Dozier is not fair. 

 

Also, you have to consider how much that WAR is costing a team. Since JDL is barely coming into the league 10 WAR on a minimum contract must be worth a lot.  

[AlwaysinModeration]

http://aarongleeman.com/2017/01/03/gleeman-and-the-geek-290-final-offers/

 

Interesting take from a Twins fan/blogger on Twitter. I listened to their podcast while I was working tonight. Not sure what the opinion is of this guy among Twins fans. I do tend to agree with his take on his twitter page that some are highly underrating Deleon's value. I've never heard of Deleon having a 3/4 ceiling. It's been 2/3 from just about all scouting services/prospect reports.

He's now the editor of the Baseball Prospectus annual publication, so he's legit. And his cohost...is one of the founders of this site.

[BuxtonBandwagon]

 

Thanks for the link. Not much of a track record on that writer (says it is the first installment of a trade ideas column) but it is interesting. Sounds like the writer might be a bit more eager to sell low on Buehler than the Dodgers would be, but that seems closer to an acceptable deal than AZ's proposal here.

No problem. Here is another one link I found for one. This was over a month ago, but this return would wow all of us.

http://news2sports.com/mlb-trade-ideas-based-on-latest-offseason-week-5-news-rumors-and-speculation/

I don't think these people are well respected sports writers, but its interesting because they are neutral parties.

 

Anybody have ESPN insider? And wanna share what Buster Olney had to say

http://www.espn.com/blog/buster-olney/insider/post?id=15561

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

http://aarongleeman.com/2017/01/03/gleeman-and-the-geek-290-final-offers/

 

Interesting take from a Twins fan/blogger on Twitter.  I listened to their podcast while I was working tonight.  Not sure what the opinion is of this guy among Twins fans.  I do tend to agree with his take on his twitter page that some are highly underrating Deleon's value.  I've never heard of Deleon having a 3/4 ceiling.  It's been 2/3 from just about all scouting services/prospect reports.

Only about five people will get this but it's too good to pass up.

 

[Thegrin]

I am going to stop reading this thread.  If the new management were to trade Dozier for 4 De Leon level pitchers the Twins would still probably get robbed.  To trade Dozier, the Twins should get at least one Major League level shortstop and 2 De Leon level pitchers.  All of you that wanted Ryan to go will later look at this Dozier to the Dodger trade and wish Ryan was back. IF the trade is made.  I am hoping that this new braintrust will remember that the best trades are often the ones not made.

[TyTY23]

 

No problem. Here is another one link I found for one. This was over a month ago, but this return would wow all of us.

http://news2sports.com/mlb-trade-ideas-based-on-latest-offseason-week-5-news-rumors-and-speculation/

I don't think these people are well respected sports writers, but its interesting because they are neutral parties.

 

Anybody have ESPN insider? And wanna share what Buster Olney had to say

http://www.espn.com/blog/buster-olney/insider/post?id=15561

Yeah the first website is irrelevant. 

 

Here's what Olney said:

The Dodgers began talking to the Twins about Dozier weeks ago, but it’s worth remembering that in Andrew Friedman's years running the baseball operations, he has demonstrated time and again that he is loath to give up his best prospects. In previous opportunities, he wouldn't do it for Cole Hamels, he wouldn't for David Price and he wouldn't for Chris Sale. And if L.A. has an alternative target, in the Detroit Tigers' Ian Kinsler, there is some leverage.

[HawkeyeDodger]

 

He's now the editor of the Baseball Prospectus annual publication, so he's legit. And his cohost...is one of the founders of this site.

The first hour of the podcast was interesting for a podcast..  Said a year ago, he would have jumped at Deleon for Dozier straight up.  He doesn't even expect a Stewart to be added as a second piece let alone an Alvarez or Buehler.  Ranks Deleon as a top 2 prospect for over half the MLB teams.  He would expect someone closer to a 8th-10th Dodgers prospects to be added to Deleon which is closer to my guess of Deleon, De Jong, Rios, and Sheffield. 

[TyTY23]

 

I am going to stop reading this thread.  If the new management were to trade Dozier for 4 De Leon level pitchers the Twins would still probably get robbed.  To trade Dozier, the Twins should get at least one Major League level shortstop and 2 De Leon level pitchers.  All of you that wanted Ryan to go will later look at this Dozier to the Dodger trade and wish Ryan was back. IF the trade is made.  I am hoping that this new braintrust will remember that the best trades are often the ones not made.

You're right, JDL, Alvarez, Stewart, and Seager for Dozier it's fair.

 

This is also the best way for the Twins to get a couple of major league ready pitchers they can develop for the next 6 years. Dozier is probably gone in 2 years. If this trade is not made and a market for Dozier does not develop, the Twins would have missed a golden opportunity to start their rebuild.  

[CiabanItReal]

 

No but it's where he likely ends up. Best guess. We'd be fools to only consider the ceilings and not look at the percentages. I think that's the problem. People are selectively choosing to only point at the ceilings without acknowledging the chance that he never lasts in the majors.

Yeah, but those are just the averages of his projections, the same site projects Bellinger for 10.4 war over 6 years and Hunter Renfroe for 2.4. I would take those projections with a bowl of salt.

[AZTwin]

You're right, JDL, Alvarez, Stewart, and Seager for Dozier if fair.

Just as silly as doing a trade preselected by dodgers of only their riskiest of prospects.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

To trade Dozier, the Twins should get at least one Major League level shortstop and 2 De Leon level pitchers.

You're essentially asking for two Jose Berrios and an MLB shortstop.

 

That's... Completely unreasonable.

 

The Twins couldn't agree to that deal quickly enough. Dozier is a very good player but he's not elite. Getting what boils down to two top 20 prospects and an MLB ready middle infielder is not going to happen.

[CiabanItReal]

 

I am going to stop reading this thread.  If the new management were to trade Dozier for 4 De Leon level pitchers the Twins would still probably get robbed.  To trade Dozier, the Twins should get at least one Major League level shortstop and 2 De Leon level pitchers.  All of you that wanted Ryan to go will later look at this Dozier to the Dodger trade and wish Ryan was back. IF the trade is made.  I am hoping that this new braintrust will remember that the best trades are often the ones not made.

The dodgers don't have a major league ready SS, and if they did, they would just have him play 2nd, then we wouldn't be talking about a trade at all. Unless you mean Seager?

[BuxtonBandwagon]

 

Yeah the first website is irrelevant. 

 

Here's what Olney said:

The Dodgers began talking to the Twins about Dozier weeks ago, but it’s worth remembering that in Andrew Friedman's years running the baseball operations, he has demonstrated time and again that he is loath to give up his best prospects. In previous opportunities, he wouldn't do it for Cole Hamels, he wouldn't for David Price and he wouldn't for Chris Sale. And if L.A. has an alternative target, in the Detroit Tigers' Ian Kinsler, there is some leverage.

You're right it is irrelevant. But thanks a lot for sharing the insider info.

 

Also another one I found was an article by Anthony Castrovince, an MLB.com columnist.

His idea was De Leon+Alvarez+Sheffield for Dozier

[DaveW]

 

Are there really rumors about the angels being "in" on Dozier? I could believe the angels calling and seriously being interested in a reliever or something, but Dozier?

No, it's what Doogie reported though, and the Angels shot it down almost instantly, hence the spin.

[DaveW]

 

Sorry to break it to you but every team does this. Its just part of the dance. 

Yes, that is true, but few teams have looked as obvious and inept as the Twins have over the years when it comes to these sort of "leaks"

Sano's "weight issue" comes to mind.

[DaveW]

 

The guy who broke the signings of Turner and Jansen has tweeted that the Dodgers have set this weekend as a deadline to get this deal done.

Yup, I can confirm this. I reported this a couple days ago on twitter that the deal would have to be done this week. My source however said they see it happening/going through FWIW.