Dozier Trade Discussion Thread

[Riverbrian]

 

I'm not valuing Dozier to the reported return, lol. Boy, some homers really get their feelings hurt rather easily, lol. I was referring to the value of Dozier to the Dodgers winning during the season. Everyone knows  how much of a crap shoot the playoffs are, so its even harder to predict how much Dozier to the Dodgers winning it all might be worth. 

 

I agree on the Playoff crap shoot. However... Dozier would make the Dodgers better and when you are looking at a top heavy National League with the Mets, Nats, Cubs, Cards, Pirates and Giants. Add to that a big payroll and the reason for big payrolls is to produce a winner now. I'd say that pressure to get better would talk me into trying to get better now.

 

 

[jimmer]

 

Based on what do you infer that Alvarez ends up as a reliever. Have you personally even seen the guy pitch, or might you be a scout, talent evaluator, etc?

I have, though I must say that kind of post isn't really encouraging civil discourse.  Just saying

[jimmer]

 

I agree on the Playoff crap shoot. However... Dozier would make the Dodgers better and when you are looking at a top heavy National League with the Mets, Nats, Cubs, Cards, Pirates and Giants. Add to that a big payroll and the reason for big payrolls is to produce a winner now. I'd say that pressure to get better would talk me into trying to get better now.

They absolutely need to upgrade 2B and RH hitting.  He's a perfect fit.

[AZTwin]

AZTwin... I'm not going to hide your post but I'm gonna ask you to not make blanket assumptions.

 

I'm pretty sure Dodger Fans are just like Twins Fans. You'll probably find Dodger Fans that Overate their prospects and Dodger Fans that underrate their prospects and some Dodger Fans that rate them just right.

 

Also keep in mind the difference in value that Twins Fans have expressed on the value of Brian Dozier.

 

It's a difference of opinion and nothing more.

 

Now if you want to say that Dodger Fans have more money... Yeah... that would be true.

Most fans overrate prospects. Berrios is more likely to be a 3 or 4 than a 1. Same with Deleon. Alvarez projection is all over the map. He has just as much chance of being an ace as never making the majors. With his stuff, I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up in bullpen. Stewart as a 4 or 5. I would say those 3 plus a lottery ticket is worth Dozier

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Dave tweeted yesterday (i think) that talks are heating back up again and that his source is certain a deal will be done by end of business week.  

 

Yea or nay?  I'm gonna gamble and say yea.  Dozier for DeLeon, Alvarez and Stewart

 

Forced to decide one way or another, I will say 'nay'.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Zach Lee is no longer a Dodger. 

 

Ah, good point, was just looking at last year's AAA numbers and picked a dude.  Not sure the Dodgers have a AAAA player from what I am looking at.

[Riverbrian]

 

Most fans overrate prospects. Berrios is more likely to be a 3 or 4 than a 1. Same with Deleon. Alvarez projection is all over the map. He has just as much chance of being an ace as never making the majors. With his stuff, I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up in bullpen. Stewart as a 4 or 5. I would say those 3 plus a lottery ticket is worth Dozier

 

I only have opinions on pitchers that I've seen throw. I haven't seen DeLeon or Alverez throw and I refuse to rely on third party articles and rankings to form my opinions.

 

As strange as it may sound... My strong opinion on the Dozier rumors is 100% mine and was formed without having a strong opinion on the individual prospects being offered.

 

I want Falvey/Lavine to get what they want and not settle for less. I have no opinion on what would be less. 

 

Berrios... I've seen him pitch... Last year was a disappointment but it was going to be a disappointment with his command issues. Once he starts trusting his stuff against the best in the world... his command should improve and when that happens...  I think he has the stuff to be a top of the rotation guy. I'm glad he's a Twin... We are going to need him. 

[AZTwin]

I only have opinions on pitchers that I've seen throw. I haven't seen DeLeon or Alverez throw and I refuse to rely on third party articles and rankings to form my opinions.

 

As strange as it may sound... My strong opinion on the Dozier rumors is 100% mine and was formed without having a strong opinion on the individual prospects being offered.

 

I want Falvey/Lavine to get what they want and not settle for less. I have no opinion on what would be less.

 

Berrios... I've seen him pitch... Last year was a disappointment but it was going to be a disappointment with his command issues. Once he starts trusting his stuff against the best in the world... his command should improve and when that happens... I think he has the stuff to be a top of the rotation guy. I'm glad he's a Twin... We are going to need him.

I'm glad he's a twin too but he has a hump to get over just as all prospects do. Baseball prospects bust at a rate far greater than a sport such as football

[Riverbrian]

 

I'm glad he's a twin too but he has a hump to get over just as all prospects do. Baseball prospects bust at a rate far greater than a sport such as football

 

The Twins were really humpy last year 

 

[DaveW]

Ah, good point, was just looking at last year's AAA numbers and picked a dude. Not sure the Dodgers have a AAAA player from what I am looking at.

AAAA shouldn't be taken literally, it's just the "value" they would prefer to give up, someone with a very very very small chance of having a significant upside.

 

I would also say that's a chris Davis was never a AAAA type. He was a former top prospect who was labeled a "bust" too early. A AAAA type is a chris collabello or Pat Dean. Of course some of those guys defy the odds from time to time as well.

 

Twins however would prefer a lottery ticket type guy. (Think of liriano when he was included in the deal? Maybe?)

[TyTY23]

 

I have, though I must say that kind of post isn't really encouraging civil discourse.  Just saying

I'm sorry it came across a little aggressive didn't mean it that way. I just simply wanted to know what background did he have in making such inference. 

[Craig Arko]

The Twins were really humpy last year 

 

[TheLeviathan]

 

AAAA shouldn't be taken literally, it's just the "value" they would prefer to give up, someone with a very very very small chance of having a significant upside.

I would also say that's a chris Davis was never a AAAA type. He was a former top prospect who was labeled a "bust" too early. A AAAA type is a chris collabello or Pat Dean. Of course some of those guys defy the odds from time to time as well.

Twins however would prefer a lottery ticket type guy. (Think of liriano when he was included in the deal? Maybe?)

 

Well, at the point Chris Davis was labeled a "bust" he was seen as a guy that would crush AAA pitching but wouldn't be able to make it in the majors.  The difference between Davis and Colabello is one of them figured it out.  

 

So, like I said, not all AAAA guys are the same.  Some have former pedigree worth investing in and for that I'm game.  But I've been advocating the Twins pursue those types for awhile.

[Brock Beauchamp]

yeah, I'd be very happy with De Leon and Buehler. And I've been saying all along I think Bellinger and Alvarez were off limits in a trade for Dozier.

Obviously, I'd like to see the Twins get more than that but it's not a competely unreasonable deal, provided Buehler's rehab was on track and he didn't have any obvious health issues.

[BuxtonBandwagon]

I am really curious as to who the AAAA guy could be. It's easy to find lots of lottery tickets in the Dodgers farm system, but not many AAAA types. Either way if we get JDL + Alvarez + one more for Dozier it's a very good trade IMO.

[jimmer]

 

I am really curious as to who the AAAA guy could be. It's easy to find lots of lottery tickets in the Dodgers farm system, but not many AAAA types. Either way if we get JDL + Alvarez + one more for Dozier it's a very good trade IMO.

If we get JDL+Alvarez and no one else, still a very good trade IMO :-)

[AZTwin]

I am really curious as to who the AAAA guy could be. It's easy to find lots of lottery tickets in the Dodgers farm system, but not many AAAA types. Either way if we get JDL + Alvarez + one more for Dozier it's a very good trade IMO.

I honestly think de Jong or Stewart are AAAA types

[Cory Engelhardt]

I honestly think de Jong or Stewart are AAAA types

Stewart isn't.

[nytwinsfan]

 

AAAA shouldn't be taken literally, it's just the "value" they would prefer to give up, someone with a very very very small chance of having a significant upside.

I would also say that's a chris Davis was never a AAAA type. He was a former top prospect who was labeled a "bust" too early. A AAAA type is a chris collabello or Pat Dean. Of course some of those guys defy the odds from time to time as well.

Twins however would prefer a lottery ticket type guy. (Think of liriano when he was included in the deal? Maybe?)

 

What's the hold up, Dodgers offering still more AAAA types?

[Oldgoat_MN]

I am at the point that if the Dodgers get Dozier I will be pulling for them to win it all!

 

And if we keep Dozier I will chuckle every time the Dodgers lose 1-0 or 2-1 to a LH pitcher.

 

I can be such a jerk sometimes...

[TyTY23]

 

I am at the point that if the Dodgers get Dozier I will be pulling for them to win it all!

 

And if we keep Dozier I will chuckle every time the Dodgers lose 1-0 or 2-1 to a LH pitcher.

 

I can be such a jerk sometimes...

That's a good plan since you won't have much to cheer for during the baseball season.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Sorry. Yes, my point was not fully fleshed out in my previous post. Basically, I was trying to point out that not ALL extensions are bad at this point and some would even enhance his trade value. So there might (might!) be a window where an extension is a win-win for the twins and Dozier. Especially since it isn't crazy to think that a 32-year-old Dozier might have very few options if he has a bad 2018, kind of like Desmond in after 2015.

If he's bad in 2018, sure you can extend him, but who cares at that point? They still would have wasted his current value. They could trade him now with a plan to re-sign if his performance fades for all I care.

 

Even the value of a one year deal like Ian Desmond got this past season will be lower thanks to the new FA comp pick rules.

[DocBauer]

Dozier checks every box the Dodgers need: inexpensive, quality glove, RH power and OPS with some speed. He makes their team better where they are not, and increases their chances of winning. Even if it's 2 games, it could mean the difference of the division, home field, or a game 7.

 

And the Dodgers have a deep enough system...and pockets...to part with a handful of quality prospects. You don't add quality by trading little in return. And the Twins take on the "gamble" of said prospects turning out to be quality players for them.

 

JDL, Alvarez and one of the often mentioned "prospect" arms, be it Stewart or otherwise, is a very fair 3 for 1 IMO. Both teams get what they want and need, nobody gets taken.

[BuxtonBandwagon]

 

Dozier checks every box the Dodgers need: inexpensive, quality glove, RH power and OPS with some speed. He makes their team better where they are not, and increases their chances of winning. Even if it's 2 games, it could mean the difference of the division, home field, or a game 7.

And the Dodgers have a deep enough system...and pockets...to part with a handful of quality prospects. You don't add quality by trading little in return. And the Twins take on the "gamble" of said prospects turning out to be quality players for them.

JDL, Alvarez and one of the often mentioned "prospect" arms, be it Stewart or otherwise, is a very fair 3 for 1 IMO. Both teams get what they want and need, nobody gets taken.

This is a great point, he literally checks every box the Dodgers need. Also there's been a lot of talk that the Dodgers probably will win the division which is true, but remember last year it took a major Giants 2nd half collapse for them to do it. This team overcame a Kershaw injury with their SP depth but what if Turner or another everyday player gets hurt? That'll hurt their lineup a ton, and this is an average Dodger lineup. Although he is not an ideal one but Dozier also gives them a leadoff hitter. It's a perfect fit for the Dodgers. So that should inspire the Dodgers to offer up a little more for him.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

JDL, Alvarez and one of the often mentioned "prospect" arms, be it Stewart or otherwise, is a very fair 3 for 1 IMO. Both teams get what they want and need, nobody gets taken.

Unfortunately, I am less and less sure this has been offered. I would feel taken if I were the Dodgers giving that up.

[TyTY23]

 

This is a great point, he literally checks every box the Dodgers need. Also there's been a lot of talk that the Dodgers probably will win the division which is true, but remember last year it took a major Giants 2nd half collapse for them to do it. This team overcame a Kershaw injury with their SP depth but what if Turner or another everyday player gets hurt? That'll hurt their lineup a ton, and this is an average Dodger lineup. Although he is not an ideal one but Dozier also gives them a leadoff hitter. It's a perfect fit for the Dodgers. So that should inspire the Dodgers to offer up a little more for him.

This is not an average lineup by any measure. The Dodgers also led the league in players in the DL last year. If they can sustain a successful season with so many injuries I think they will be alright this year. Also, last year everyone wrote the Dodger off and gave the division to the Giants or the DBax when the Dodgers lost Greinke and the Giants sign Cueto and others. 

[HawkeyeDodger]

 

It's actually quite ridiculous that they aren't being more aggressive for their window. Not sure I would approve as a fan. I would rather increase my odds at a World Series ring than maybe have 1 of 3 prospects turn out to be something one day. When you consider the bust rate of top prospects it's even more absurd

You need to remember that Stan Kasten runs the Dodgers and his #1 priority is being good for a long time just like the Braves were under his leadership.  The Dodgers for the last 4 years have been trying to win while they rebuild the farm system. It was an utter mess under McCourt.  Tanking like the Cubs did wasn't an option.  The resisted deals for Price, Hamels, Sale, etc.  They aren't an all in team. They don't have a small window to win.  It's more like a short window until Ethier, Crawford, Gonzalez, McCarthy, and Kazmir are off the books.  Kasten sees a much bigger window with Bellinger, Seager, Turner, Pederson, Puig, Toles, Verdugo, Grandal, Urias, Kershaw, Alvarez, Buehler, Deleon(if he isn't traded), Jansen, etc.  All except Turner are in their 20"s and most under 25.  

[AZTwin]

You need to remember that Stan Kasten runs the Dodgers and his #1 priority is being good for a long time just like the Braves were under his leadership. The Dodgers for the last 4 years have been trying to win while they rebuild the farm system. It was an utter mess under McCourt. Tanking like the Cubs did wasn't an option. The resisted deals for Price, Hamels, Sale, etc. They aren't an all in team. They don't have a small window to win. It's more like a short window until Ethier, Crawford, Gonzalez, McCarthy, and Kazmir are off the books. Kasten sees a much bigger window with Bellinger, Seager, Turner, Pederson, Puig, Toles, Verdugo, Grandal, Urias, Kershaw, Alvarez, Buehler, Deleon(if he isn't traded), Jansen, etc. All except Turner are in their 20"s and most under 25.

 

For a team so close it seems like a losing strategy to rely on highly risky prospects and players to improve rather than acquiring a known star. Jmo of course

[Otto von Ballpark]

This is a great point, he literally checks every box the Dodgers need. Also there's been a lot of talk that the Dodgers probably will win the division which is true, but remember last year it took a major Giants 2nd half collapse for them to do it. This team overcame a Kershaw injury with their SP depth but what if Turner or another everyday player gets hurt? That'll hurt their lineup a ton, and this is an average Dodger lineup. Although he is not an ideal one but Dozier also gives them a leadoff hitter. It's a perfect fit for the Dodgers. So that should inspire the Dodgers to offer up a little more for him.

They have the prospects to make an in-season trade if circumstances warrant. And they are actually better suited to do that if they don't give up a ton right now for Dozier.

 

Look at 2016 -- they cheaply patched 2B in the offseason, and went out and got a SP and an OF as needed at the deadline.

[HawkeyeDodger]

 

Even on a team level, I'd caution against reading too much into a single season's splits.

 

Justin Turner is a RHB but somehow put up a 77 wRC+ vs LHP last year, after posting a 133 in that split over 2014-2015.  What do you project him to do vs LHP in 2017?

 

Puig was one of their leaders vs LHP in 2016, but he was shuttled to the bench and minors for awhile.  Him returning to a full-time role in 2017 should give them a boost vs LHP, even if he doesn't rebound to his all-star status.

 

Not that it can't be a consideration for them, but it's not clear that they have to make it a major priority right now.  RHB platoon options are probably pretty cheap, and could be even cheaper in July.  (I imagine the 2016 Dodgers would have been better off getting a RHB instead of Josh Reddick at the deadline, as he proceed to post a negative-31 wRC+ in 33 PA vs LHP!)

SVS and Thompson being injured also hurt.  Unless SVS is traded I expect him to give Gonzalez more days off against lefties this season.  He's also a very capable platoon partner in LF with Toles or Ethier.