What big named Free agent pitchers are available this off-season?

[Vanimal46]

 

About all I remember from the last five years is a whole lot of young guys -- some of whom were traded for -- who had no business playing in the majors either because they were not ready or were never going to be ready.

 

If you are talking about Hughes, Nolasco, Pelfrey -- those guys are in the minority and most of them were simply older versions of the young guys who had no business playing in the majors......

 

Hughes was a good pick up.  His extension was a terrible idea.  You could say the same for Suzuki if not for the fact that the Twins have not been able to find anyone even half as good as he is.  So there are roughly 1.5 players that fit your theory out of around 125 roster spots in the past five years.  

Remember the glory days when Glen Perkins was a hot commodity? Every ounce of value squeezed out of him. 

You're correct, the Twins haven't had many players of value over the last 5 years. Lucky us, there's 2 players that actually do this year! For once, I'd like to see what it's like to sell someone for an exciting return. 

[Kwak]

I am convinced that the main reason Falvey was selected was that he agreed that signing a bunch of old, tired (and likely expensive) arms was a fool's option. Payroll will be slashed (recall Ryan's strategy for '12 and '13?) before any spending will be considered.

[Doomtints]

 

If you're bad and you decide that you won't give up peak value players like Dozier and Santana out of fear you'll be worse, I find that terrible asset management.  We've bottomed out the fan base, we've bottomed out the record, it's time to be smart and realize what it's going to take to turn this around.

 

And if this offseason had some bounty of pitching that was literally overflowing and the market had all sorts of options to help our pitching, then MAYBE I'd consider that.  But it doesn't.  The FA crop is god awful both in top end talent an in depth.  Trade options are going to have ludicrious prices on them from the demand and lack of supply.  

 

Hanging on to Santana now is like the Hughes extension.  It's blindly believing something that is a mirage (our chances in 2017) should lead you to invest rather than maximize value.  

 

The combination of Ervin's age, contract, and performance coupled with the options available in the offseason should spell out a pretty simple gameplan: shop him.

 

We'll see I guess.  Good things could come out of him being traded PROVIDED other moves are made to address filling his spot. I'm understandably skeptical about this organization pulling that off, even with a new guy.  Few teams survive jettisoning their best player unless that player is a cancer in the clubhouse.  

[mazeville]

 

The Twins picked up Blyleven and Reardon in 1987, and they won the world series that year by the tiniest margin possible.  Are you saying they could have won the series with just 1 starting pitcher and no closer?  Just 1 good starter and the best set up man in the league was enough?  That's all they had without picking them up.  

 

To me there is no question that picking up those two players meant EVERYTHING to that team.  And neither of those two were jaw-dropping guys.  They were simply dependable guys.  And the pickups certainly did not fill up every hole on that team.  

 

Note that the Twins don't need to trade Dozier to pick up some dependable arms, so that's a straw man.  Overall, I'm hoping this aversion to signing and trading goes away quickly.  I'm not sure why fans ever bought into it, much less continuing to hold to it now that the strategy has failed miserably.

 

What are you even talking about? 

 

First, 1987 was built largely on luck because the team got into the playoffs with just 85 wins. The year before that the team won 71 games. So that was a 14-game improvement. That was nice. But consider this: This year's team will win, what, 58 games? Add 14 to that and you get ... 72 wins. 

 

Let's double that, and say they can somehow win 28 more games next year than they won this year. That's ... 86 wins. Fair to say they'd be in the wild card question. But they'd be in second place at best in all six MLB divisions with 86 wins based on this year's records. 

 

28 wins is a LOT of games. They would need to add nearly three Mike Trouts to the roster to make up for that gap.

 

It's not going to happen. 

 

This team has NOT had an aversion to signing players. They signed Ricky Nolasco, Phil Hughes and Ervin Santana to big deals and only one of them could be considered a success. Yet those signings came when the team still had some rebuilding to do and wasn't ready to take the next step into contention. AND those signings were largely of mid-tier free agents that should generally be avoided.

 

In any event, I was saying that no single veteran will take this particular team to the playoffs next year, and in fact no two or three veterans would do the trick. So it does not make sense for the new POBO to go out and trade prospects for veterans and to sign free agents (assuming, that is, any free agents would want to come play for a 100-loss team ...).

 

This is a rebuild job. Now, theoretically this team has the talent in place to make a relatively quick turnaround. But that pitching staff ... woof.

[Doomtints]

 

Remember the glory days when Glen Perkins was a hot commodity? Every ounce of value squeezed out of him. 

You're correct, the Twins haven't had many players of value over the last 5 years. Lucky us, there's 2 players that actually do this year! For once, I'd like to see what it's like to sell someone for an exciting return. 

 

Yeah but some of this stuff is ancient history now.  Morneau should have been traded two years earlier.

But this is a double edged sword.  The Twins should have kept the original Santana, Cuddyer, Punto, etc.  

 

It's a shame I have to go back so many years to be able to list off interesting players.  Ugh.

[Doomtints]

 

What are you even talking about? 

 

First, 1987 was built largely on luck because the team got into the playoffs with just 85 wins. The year before that the team won 71 games. So that was a 14-game improvement. That was nice. But consider this: This year's team will win, what, 58 games? Add 14 to that and you get ... 72 wins. 

 

Let's double that, and say they can somehow win 28 more games next year than they won this year. That's ... 86 wins. Fair to say they'd be in the wild card question. But they'd be in second place at best in all six MLB divisions with 86 wins based on this year's records. 

 

28 wins is a LOT of games. They would need to add nearly three Mike Trouts to the roster to make up for that gap.

 

It's not going to happen. 

 

This team has NOT had an aversion to signing players. They signed Ricky Nolasco, Phil Hughes and Ervin Santana to big deals and only one of them could be considered a success. Yet those signings came when the team still had some rebuilding to do and wasn't ready to take the next step into contention. AND those signings were largely of mid-tier free agents that should generally be avoided.

 

In any event, I was saying that no single veteran will take this particular team to the playoffs next year, and in fact no two or three veterans would do the trick. So it does not make sense for the new POBO to go out and trade prospects for veterans and to sign free agents (assuming, that is, any free agents would want to come play for a 100-loss team ...).

 

This is a rebuild job. Now, theoretically this team has the talent in place to make a relatively quick turnaround. But that pitching staff ... woof.

 

You think you're going against what I said but you're not.  I said straight up that the Twins won the world series by the tightest margins possible.  You can bet the farm that not having one of those two pickups I called out would have meant not winning the division.  

 

As for winning the division with 85 wins being an aberration -- sure.  But this was before the wild card.  It's much more possible for a team with 85 wins to go into the playoffs today.  But this is neither here nor there.  I'm not suggesting the Twins can make the playoffs simply by picking up two players.  I am, however, stating that there can be a much bigger improvement than one would expect and to not even try is the only sure way to fail.  We know that nearly everyone on this pitching staff needs to be replaced.

 

As for the team supposedly not having an aversion to sign free agents and listing off three guys in five years ... that doesn't really support your argument.  If they had signed ten market value players in five years, sure.  Instead the Twins went for youth and supplemented them with free agent geriatrics who tended to fail quickly.  Ryan's teams have been great at having players who are young and old, but almost no one in their peak years in between.  Those peak year guys will beat you all the time.

 

My theory is that Ryan's bosses got impatient with his process for rebuilding the pitching staff because all he did with the signings you mentioned was block the prospects he traded for previously.  In other words, Ryan's bosses got sick of his aversion to signing free agents.  

[TheLeviathan]

 

We'll see I guess.  Good things could come out of him being traded PROVIDED other moves are made to address filling his spot. I'm understandably skeptical about this organization pulling that off, even with a new guy.  Few teams survive jettisoning their best player unless that player is a cancer in the clubhouse.  

 

Skepticism I understand.  But we gotta trust this new guy.  If he flops with his trades and signings, we're screwed whether we take a rebuilding or push hard approach.  At the end of the day, any tactic we take requires him to push the right buttons.  As I said in the other thread, I'm just pushing my chips in on what is most probable for success as soon as possible.

[jimmer]

I wouldn't count on next offseason to be much better. With all the money in the game right now, and the tendency for teams to extend players early, teams are going to be keeping more and more of their great players/pitchers.  FA is going to continue to have not much value going forward.  It's going to have to be through international signings, trades and development of prospects.  All the things we excel at. :-)

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Falvey's going to need some magic up his sleeves. The Twins will need 2-3 off of the list old nurse provided as a 1 year flyer. Best case, 1-2 turn out good and they flip them for better players a la the Chicago Cubs. 

 

Sans some sort of trace, me thinks we are better off letting May, Berrios, Duffey, and Mejia duke it out next year for those spots with Gonsalves potentially entering the fray at some point... let's see who sinks and who swims... then you can go augment in 2018 when the class is much better. 

[TheLeviathan]

 

Sans some sort of trace, me thinks we are better off letting May, Berrios, Duffey, and Mejia duke it out next year for those spots with Gonsalves potentially entering the fray at some point... let's see who sinks and who swims... then you can go augment in 2018 when the class is much better. 

 

Yup, in other words, recognize you are still in a rebuilding phase and act like it.  It's a bitter pill to swallow, but also the right pill to swallow.

[Kwak]

 

Yup, in other words, recognize you are still in a rebuilding phase and act like it.  It's a bitter pill to swallow, but also the right pill to swallow.

Th sales slogan for 2017: "If you thought last season was bad--wait'll you see next year!"

[Monkeypaws]

Has Johan Santana officially retired? I'd bring him in to do a vulcan mind-meld with Berrios.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Th sales slogan for 2017: "If you thought last season was bad--wait'll you see next year!"

Like it or not, there's not much to work with.  We all saw the offseason list... Nothing.  There's no point in doing a Pelfrey type signing in hopes you get a guy with a good year... The best names on that list are  ones that did well and are well past their primes.  Most never really had a prime.

 

No international FA is going to make things different next year.  I'm not up on the Cuban defector market, but finding a stud there is hardly a sure thing. Only real chance there is a Dozier trade, where you might end up with a high ceiling pitching guy that is near ready, but even that is not a sure thing since those guys tend to fall in the 'untouchable' category. 

 

We have plenty of guys that could be solid or above average contributors in the high minors. I think you have to roll with them and trust the new FO to put some coaching around them that can help with the transition.  Some will sink.  Some will swim, but you have to actually let them do it.  Come end of 2017, we will have a much better idea of what we need, a lower payroll with a few more guys off the books, and possibly the money needed to go get a nice pitcher.

[T_J]

Signing any free agent pitcher this offseason makes zero sense. This team is 2 years away from even being .500. When they are ready to make a postseason push, they can't have ****ty asset blocking any paths to younger, better players. They should roll with the kids and see what they actually have before investing in any FA players. They should trade any asset that won't be part of season three postseason push. 

[USAFChief]

It's not a sexy FA pitcher list, but ignoring free agency isn't a good strategy.

 

I would avoid any long term commitments from this group. However, hopefully our new PBO and GM can zero in on one or two short term deals that turn out to be fantastic bargains. One, two, or even three year deal(s) should absolutely happen. It's only money.

 

Those "finds" happen every year. Some GMs look like geniuses because they were able to spot the guy(s) likely to outperform their recent history, and then cash those assets in, either with W's or by flipping them at the deadline.

 

This team needs pitching. The most likely result of "Don't sign anyone, play the kids" is another half decade of suckage. I want the new leadership to augment the existing pitching, not wait for the magic beans to grow into magic beanstalks. And that means all avenues pursued, including free agency, even in a "bad year" for free agents. If all the new front office does is wait for "tomorrow, tomorrow" we might as well have kept Ryan.

 

There's no reason a good front office shouldn't be able to turn the position players on this team into a contender in a year or two. If Buxton, Sano et al aren't ready to compete by 2017, they likely never will be. Get on with it...that's why they hired a new front office.

[Dantes929]

In 2007 we came off a losing season and lost our best pitcher and our best outfielder and people asked how we could possibly compete.   The answer was that baseball is a team game and if enough players simply play better the results can be huge.     This isn't 2011 or 12 when we were relying on Plouffe Doumit, Casilla, Nishioka,De Vries and  Hendriks to step up their game.    Sano, Buxton, Kepler, Duffey May,  and Berrios having good seasons can have a profound effect on results.     I don't want to sign  Cliff Lee (is he still alive?) to a big 5 year contract but if we can get a Santana similar type  for less then go for it.    I hate to give up on any season before it has started and especially with guys who have finally arrived and maybe just needed to get their feet wet.

 

As far as Berrios goes  I thought he looked really god last night.  Down in the zone and his misses were way closer than they have been.  This following a 3 inning shutout that was rained out.     On a side note people say that umpires calls even out in the long haul (they don't but I really don't know how the Twins fared in that regard this season) but last night Sano was called out on a pitch that should have been a walk so instead of 1 on and no one out there was 1 out and no one on and we did not score.    The bottom half Berrios even more obviously had a strike 3 on Dyson but he walked and instead of 1 out no one on they had 1 on and no one out and they scored two.    Games turn on such things and it is not so much the results I am commenting on but to head off anyone saying 3 runs in 4.2 innings is a lousy outing.    Baseball has more nuance than that.

[gunnarthor]

The Twins have lots of options, really.  They could trade players other than Dozier.  Even though he slumped a bit, Kepler probably has good trade value.  Santana might be sought after. They could bundle prospects.  Most lists still have them with 4 or so top 100 prospects, plus solid depth.

 

The FA market isn't great but a guy like Ivan Nova won't break the bank, he's a groundball pitcher with decent peripherals and relatively young.

 

I suspect Falvey will try to rectify the defense as a means of helping the pitching staff.  I suspect that means some sort of upgrade at catcher and short stop.  Maybe elsewhere.  

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The Twins picked up Blyleven and Reardon in 1987, and they won the world series that year by the tiniest margin possible.  Are you saying they could have won the series with just 1 starting pitcher and no closer?  Just 1 good starter and the best set up man in the league was enough?  That's all they had without picking them up.  

 

To me there is no question that picking up those two players meant EVERYTHING to that team.  And neither of those two were jaw-dropping guys.  They were simply dependable guys.  And the pickups certainly did not fill up every hole on that team.  

Blyleven was actually acquired in 1985, and he was a career 127 ERA+ pitcher at the time in the midst of a 128 ERA+ season (and coming off of a 144 the year before).  Third place Cy Young finishes both seasons.  The bulk of a Hall of Fame case already established.  You might be selling him short here.  He's really nowhere near Santana, Hughes, Nolasco, or any of the pitchers on this winter's list, which was the context of that comment and this discussion.

[Doomtints]

 

Blyleven was actually acquired in 1985, and he was a career 127 ERA+ pitcher at the time in the midst of a 128 ERA+ season (and coming off of a 144 the year before).  Third place Cy Young finishes both seasons.  The bulk of a Hall of Fame case already established.  You might be selling him short here.  He's really nowhere near Santana, Hughes, Nolasco, or any of the pitchers on this winter's list, which was the context of that comment and this discussion.

 

I love Blyleven.  But you have to look at this through the lens of the era.  Look at what the Twins traded to Cleveland to get Blyleven.  It was total junk.  People talk about Ryan's Pierzynsky trade but this trade was astounding and resulted in a championship.

 

If that's all the Indians could get for Blyleven, clearly teams thought he was done.  We ought to keep this in mind as we poo-poo this list of free agents available.  The people poo-pooing this list would also have been poo-pooing the Blyleven trade.  And believe me, I was there -- a lot of people did that very thing even as he put up good numbers as a Twin.

 

And, yes, this sentence is only being added so I can write poo-poo one additional time in this response.  

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I love Blyleven.  But you have to look at this through the lens of the era.  Look at what the Twins traded to Cleveland to get Blyleven.  It was total junk.  People talk about Ryan's Pierzynsky trade but this trade was astounding and resulted in a championship.

 

If that's all the Indians could get for Blyleven, clearly teams thought he was done.  We ought to keep this in mind as we poo-poo this list of free agents available.  

The Cleveland front office was not known for its acumen, that decade or several of the preceding ones.

 

We did trade them Jay Bell, a 19 year old shortstop who was barely a year removed from being the #8 overall pick in the draft, more than holding his own at high-A at the time (and moved up to AA for Cleveland without missing a beat).

 

Could Nick Gordon be a part of a "total junk" trade package this winter?

[Doomtints]

 

The Cleveland front office was not known for its acumen, that decade or several of the preceding ones.

 

We did trade them Jay Bell, a 19 year old shortstop who was barely a year removed from being the #8 overall pick in the draft, more than holding his own at high-A at the time (and moved up to AA for Cleveland without missing a beat).

 

Could Nick Gordon be a part of a "total junk" trade package this winter?

 

Hopefully stealing away their front office will be the new Blyleven trade for the Twins.  

[Twodogs]

 

About all I remember from the last five years is a whole lot of young guys -- some of whom were traded for -- who had no business playing in the majors either because they were not ready or were never going to be ready.

 

If you are talking about Hughes, Nolasco, Pelfrey -- those guys are in the minority and most of them were simply older versions of the young guys who had no business playing in the majors......

 

Hughes was a good pick up.  His extension was a terrible idea.  You could say the same for Suzuki if not for the fact that the Twins have not been able to find anyone even half as good as he is.  So there are roughly 1.5 players that fit your theory out of around 125 roster spots in the past five years.  

 

 

 

If you are talking about Hughes, Nolasco, Pelfrey -- those guys are in the minority and most of them were simply older versions of the young guys who had no business playing in the majors......

 

Hughes was a good pick up.  His extension was a terrible idea.  You could say the same for Suzuki if not for the fact that the Twins have not been able to find anyone even half as good as he is.  So there are roughly 1.5 players that fit your theory out of around 125 roster spots in the past five years.  

I wonder if the Angels would consider taking Santiago back for Nolasco and Meyer??  

[old nurse]

 

It's not a sexy FA pitcher list, but ignoring free agency isn't a good strategy.

I would avoid any long term commitments from this group. However, hopefully our new PBO and GM can zero in on one or two short term deals that turn out to be fantastic bargains. One, two, or even three year deal(s) should absolutely happen. It's only money.

Those "finds" happen every year. Some GMs look like geniuses because they were able to spot the guy(s) likely to outperform their recent history, and then cash those assets in, either with W's or by flipping them at the deadline.

This team needs pitching. The most likely result of "Don't sign anyone, play the kids" is another half decade of suckage. I want the new leadership to augment the existing pitching, not wait for the magic beans to grow into magic beanstalks. And that means all avenues pursued, including free agency, even in a "bad year" for free agents. If all the new front office does is wait for "tomorrow, tomorrow" we might as well have kept Ryan.

There's no reason a good front office shouldn't be able to turn the position players on this team into a contender in a year or two. If Buxton, Sano et al aren't ready to compete by 2017, they likely never will be. Get on with it...that's why they hired a new front office.

Outside of Nova or Hellickson there is no one on that list that would appear to be healthy enough to be a competent starter for a whole season. Perhaps you could shed some light on what pitcher would fill that role? Hector Santiago when the Twins non tender him?

[twinssporto]

If Falvey is like most people in a leadership position he probably has an idea or vision of where he wants this team to be in the short-term and long-term.  I'm assuming his vision for the short-term and long-term future would be similar to most people on TD too. Falvey's planned goals for the future probably looks something like this:

 

Short-term 2017 goal:  Improve team to .500 ball or better. 

This shows the fan base we are improving and it makes Falvey look good to his bosses.  In addition, it starts to build up morale and confidence on a team that clearly lacks both of those things.

 

2018 goal: Make playoffs

Now the fan base is really engaged and the team's acting and playing like winners.

 

2019 goal:  Win World Series

 

In order to make some forward progress he will need to do a combination of things.  Retain some good veterans, make some good trades, do a few free agent signings and bring up some more youth. 

 

If we trade away all of our good veterans or talent now to get even more youthful it will take years before we can even take that first step of improving to a .500 ball club. 

 

[jimmer]

I hope he has REALISTIC goals.

[USAFChief]

If competing for a WS title by 2019 isn't a realistic goal, we hired the wrong guy.

[Doomtints]

 

If competing for a WS title by 2019 isn't a realistic goal, we hired the wrong guy.

 

The Cubs went from 100+ losses to 97 wins and the playoffs in 3 years and to the most dominant team in the league in 4 years.  This is the benchmark. 

[gunnarthor]

I think we're a bit pessimistic (for good reason) but the team does have some good things going for it.  As Klaw noted, we do have some nice young talent already.  The offense is solid and should continue to get better.  The real problem is pitching, which ideally Falvey has a plan for.  It was probably brought up in his interview.

 

[TheLeviathan]

 

The Cubs went from 100+ losses to 97 wins and the playoffs in 3 years and to the most dominant team in the league in 4 years.  This is the benchmark. 

 

I agree, we should be aiming for the playoffs in 2-3 seasons.  That means you treat 2017 like the Cubs treated 2013.  You sign a guy or two to fill out your rotation and hope to flip them.  You look for Jake Arrieta floating around somewhere waiting to get gobbled up.  You trade guys like Ryan Dempster (Ervin Santana) for a talent like Kyle Hendricks.  (Admittedly, this was 2012, but not that different than doing it this offseason)  You treat your team like you're still rebuilding because you are.

 

Please, use the Cubs as an example and see what they did right.  They weren't delusional about "always try to contend!"  They reset, acquired assets, sold off the ones that wouldn't be there in several years, and built a talent base.  Just as we should be doing, even if it's hard to swallow another ugly season.

 

2019 is a real possibility.....if we don't treat 2017 like one.

[howieramone2]

 

He's 22. Take your happy pill and look at his minor league stats. He's just young.

Take a look at the bottom of his scouting reports. If his ceiling is Gibson's or Santiago's, our favorite team would do the happy dance.