What big named Free agent pitchers are available this off-season?

[Twodogs]

Just curious, is there anyone out there that could be that difference maker that the Twins could just go out and buy??  A new GM may get a little bit of early latitude with the owners to make the team good more quickly??

 

Just curious as to who will be available??

[TheLeviathan]

Pretty much no one.

[snepp]

 

Pretty much no one.

 

That's the general consensus. One of the weakest FA starting pitching crops in quite a while, at least the at top end.

[T_J]

Free Agency is pretty dry this off season. Next offseason might be the greatest FA class ever. You could make a potential All-Star team from this class. 

[old nurse]

Please do not be eating. Here is a list from Cot's

 

Starting Pitchers
Brett Anderson
Bronson Arroyo
Brandon Beachy
Andrew Cashner
John Danks
Jorge de la Rosa
R.A. Dickey
Scott Feldman
Jaime Garcia
Gio Gonzalez *
Jeremy Guthrie
Jason Hammel *
Jeremy Hellickson
Derek Holland *
Daniel Hudson
Edwin Jackson
Cliff Lee
Cory Luebke
Kris Medlen *
Matt Moore *
Charlie Morton *
Jon Niese *
Ivan Nova
Jake Peavy
Edinson Volquez *
Jered Weaver
C.J. Wilson
Travis Wood

[howieramone2]

There is at least 3 or 4 who could help. I understand there is not the $100+ million, sexy choice, but at this point in time, we only need one, possibly two to replace the Berrios types. We need to know if the billionaires are going to open up the checkbook. If not, will the new management team consider trading our young players and/or prospects?

[Vanimal46]

Falvey's going to need some magic up his sleeves. The Twins will need 2-3 off of the list old nurse provided as a 1 year flyer. Best case, 1-2 turn out good and they flip them for better players a la the Chicago Cubs. 

[gunnarthor]

Ivan Nova has really turned things around in Pittsburgh.  And he's one of the youngest guys on the list.  But I think trades are still the best possible route.

[laloesch]

I'd rather not go out and get more filler starters.  Let's 

 

Please do not be eating. Here is a list from Cot's

 

Starting Pitchers
Brett Anderson
Bronson Arroyo
Brandon Beachy
Andrew Cashner
John Danks
Jorge de la Rosa
R.A. Dickey
Scott Feldman
Jaime Garcia
Gio Gonzalez *
Jeremy Guthrie
Jason Hammel *
Jeremy Hellickson
Derek Holland *
Daniel Hudson
Edwin Jackson
Cliff Lee
Cory Luebke
Kris Medlen *
Matt Moore *
Charlie Morton *
Jon Niese *
Ivan Nova
Jake Peavy
Edinson Volquez *
Jered Weaver
C.J. Wilson
Travis Wood

 

 

Uff-da not a lot to be excited about there.

[nicksaviking]

 

There is at least 3 or 4 who could help. I understand there is not the $100+ million, sexy choice, but at this point in time, we only need one, possibly two to replace the Berrios types. We need to know if the billionaires are going to open up the checkbook. If not, will the new management team consider trading our young players and/or prospects?

 

There isn't a free agent available that should replace Berrios.

 

If Ervin Santana were a free agent, he'd be the top guy available. Just about everyone who is usable has an option that will be picked up and those that don't have options will get a qualifying offer. Rich Hill will almost certainly be retained by the Dodgers.

[ThejacKmp]

The other pitcher is Rich Hill.

 

I want to emphasize that I don't think the Twins should sign him (or any of the above for more than a 1 year filler deal) but he is an unrestricted free agent and should be near the top of any list. If you were going to gamble on a long-term deal this offseason, that's where I'd go. The warts are clear - Hill is 36 and has been injury prone in the past and during this year - but we can't deny that he has had a really nice year when healthy. He's pitched 105 innings with a 10.7K/9, 2.05 ERA and 2.53 FIP.

 

Would I want to bet he'll do that in the future and stay healthy? No way Jose. But at least there's upside if you went 3 years $55 million. He's a potential ace pitcher in a year where no one else has that upside. Tons of risk but at least there's a potential reward? I wouldn't make the move but I wouldn't be insanely upset if the Twins did.

[howieramone2]

 

There isn't a free agent available that should replace Berrios.

 

If Ervin Santana were a free agent, he'd be the top guy available. Just about everyone who is usable has an option that will be picked up and those that don't have options will get a qualifying offer. Rich Hill will almost certainly be retained by the Dodgers.

Berrios will start at Rochester, and probably resurface as a reliever.

[HitInAPinch]

I would bet that Falvey will want to stay the course with what the Twins have now and advance the development of Berrios, Duffey, etc.  That was really his thing in Cleveland.

 

Still hoping the Twins start next year with Berrios and Duffey in the bullpen.

[ThejacKmp]

 

If Ervin Santana were a free agent, he'd be the top guy available. Just about everyone who is usable has an option that will be picked up and those that don't have options will get a qualifying offer. Rich Hill will almost certainly be retained by the Dodgers.

 

Yeah, Hill would need a pretty crazy offer to not go to the Dodgers and it seems unlikely he's interested in a rebuild, even if its a potentially short rebuild. You'd have to go 3 years $60 mill+ and hope the Dodgers don't go right along. And that's if you think he's worth it (I don't, too old, too many injuries).

 

This above is why the Twins should trade Ervin this offseason. It seems counterintuitive for competitiveness but Santana is not likely to be a Twins during their next reign of dominance (anything but the most optimistic scenarios shows the Twins looking at 2018 and beyond while Santana is likely gone after 2018). He's got the potential to fetch some very nice prospects from a team that wants to win now, looks at the free agent market and cringes at the length of deals and lack of quality. (e.g. a Cubs/Nats/Dodgers team that disappoints this offseason, a Red Sox team weak on pitching, an Orioles/Jays/Tiggers/Royals team that sees it's window starting to close) 

 

Santana for 2 years is a godsend for a team that doesn't want to sign a big deal but wants an impact #3 type starter. The Twins can run out Berrios/May/Santiago/Gibson/Duffey/Meija/Hughes in 2017 and wait for Gonsalves/Jorge/Romero and whoever they get in a Santana deal (and maybe Dozier deal) to be ready in early-to-mid 2018.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Berrios will start at Rochester, and probably resurface as a reliever.

 

He's 22. Take your happy pill and look at his minor league stats. He's just young.

[Thrylos]

A rebuilding team does not need any old free-agent pitchers.  Got to see what you have.

 

[Doomtints]

 

 

 

Uff-da not a lot to be excited about there.

 

It doesn't have to be a lot.  If they pick up two starters from that list they will be making a huge difference. 

Throw in someone who can close and another who can set up, and you're already looking at a drastically different team next year.  

[DaveW]

 

Berrios will start at Rochester, and probably resurface as a reliever.

In a season featuring a treasure trove of hot takes, this might be the hottest of all

 

It is way way way way way way way way way way to early to suggest this. If he is still struggling in the majors in early 2019? Then maybe the discussion can start.

[mazeville]

 

There is at least 3 or 4 who could help. I understand there is not the $100+ million, sexy choice, but at this point in time, we only need one, possibly two to replace the Berrios types. We need to know if the billionaires are going to open up the checkbook. If not, will the new management team consider trading our young players and/or prospects?

 

For heaven's sakes. This is the problem the Twins got themselves into years ago.

 

Once again, no free agent will fix this team. No veteran will fix this team. They should not, absolutely not, trade prospects for veterans unless they have a logjam (like at first) and the player they receive in return is also young. 

 

They need to build for the long term. They need to look at trading guys like Ervin Santana and Brian Dozier for more prospects and they should find a way to fix their logjam at first base/DH/3B and they should also consider a long-term solution at short. This team's needs are so numerous that it's not even funny. But "opening the checkbook" ain't gonna help. Not at all.

[Doomtints]

 

For heaven's sakes. This is the problem the Twins got themselves into years ago.

 

Once again, no free agent will fix this team. No veteran will fix this team. They should not, absolutely not, trade prospects for veterans unless they have a logjam (like at first) and the player they receive in return is also young. 

 

They need to build for the long term. They need to look at trading guys like Ervin Santana and Brian Dozier for more prospects and they should find a way to fix their logjam at first base/DH/3B and they should also consider a long-term solution at short. This team's needs are so numerous that it's not even funny. But "opening the checkbook" ain't gonna help. Not at all.

The Twins picked up Blyleven and Reardon in 1987, and they won the world series that year by the tiniest margin possible.  Are you saying they could have won the series with just 1 starting pitcher and no closer?  Just 1 good starter and the best set up man in the league was enough?  That's all they had without picking them up.  

 

To me there is no question that picking up those two players meant EVERYTHING to that team.  And neither of those two were jaw-dropping guys.  They were simply dependable guys.  And the pickups certainly did not fill up every hole on that team.  

 

Note that the Twins don't need to trade Dozier to pick up some dependable arms, so that's a straw man.  Overall, I'm hoping this aversion to signing and trading goes away quickly.  I'm not sure why fans ever bought into it, much less continuing to hold to it now that the strategy has failed miserably.

[gocgo]

No way you do a 3 year deal for any 30+ year old pitcher.  Not smart.  Weaver has been bad this year but might want to reunite with Erv.  However, he's 33 and coming off a horrible year.  Would you rather take a chance on him or a young guy?  I'd go with a young guy in our own system before him.

[Linus]

I'd rather have Dennis Weaver than Jarod Weaver.

 

They shouldn't spend a dime on any of these guys. Trade Dozier and a prospect for a good pitcher under 30

[Vanimal46]

 

No way you do a 3 year deal for any 30+ year old pitcher.  Not smart.  Weaver has been bad this year but might want to reunite with Erv.  However, he's 33 and coming off a horrible year.  Would you rather take a chance on him or a young guy?  I'd go with a young guy in our own system before him.

Weaver was never a fire ball pitcher by any means... But, he's throwing an 83 MPH fastball the last 2 years. Stick a fork in that guy. 

[TheLeviathan]

Ervin Santana would be head and shoulders the best pitcher available in FA.  If the list up thread doesn't slap you as a giant neon sign saying "shop him!", I'm not sure what will.

 

Pitching will be going for premium prices this offseason, in terms of money and available talent in trades.  Get in on that.

[Doomtints]

 

Ervin Santana would be head and shoulders the best pitcher available in FA.  If the list up thread doesn't slap you as a giant neon sign saying "shop him!", I'm not sure what will.

 

Pitching will be going for premium prices this offseason, in terms of money and available talent in trades.  Get in on that.

 

Shop him so the Twins have ZERO dependable starters?

 

You trade veterans when you think you have someone ready to fill their shoes.  Not before.  Otherwise you are (best case) moving holes around or (most likely case) creating more holes.  The Twins are about 8 pitchers short of a serviceable staff.  Turning that number into 9 won't make the rebuild any easier.  

 

Ryan made this exact error when he arrived by trading away the outfield for prospects.  

[TheLeviathan]

 

Shop him so the Twins have ZERO dependable starters?

 

 

One versus Zero is still a terrible team.  8 versus 9 is still a terrible team.  It's going to take us some time to fix the pitching staff, more time than Ervin has as a Twin.

 

This has sell high or regret it later written all over it.

[Doomtints]

 

One versus Zero is still a terrible team.  8 versus 9 is still a terrible team.  It's going to take us some time to fix the pitching staff, more time than Ervin has as a Twin.

 

This has sell high or regret it later written all over it.

 

We will simply need to agree to disagree.  The Twins can crawl out of the cellar next year with some pick ups and progressively move up the division in the following years.  This only will work if they don't dig themselves into a deeper hole.  You are advocating staying in the cellar for another three years, as if five years wasn't enough already.  I'm not sure why anyone would be absolutist about gutting the franchise when doing so has been proven to not be the cure to a struggling team.   

 

I would wager that Falvey would never consider making the team any worse in the short term.  It's possible to get improved prospects without creating holes upon holes.  At some point you have to draw the a line and call it the bottom, the worst acceptable state.  Once you hit that, you stop cutting and start building.  If Falvey wants a lower bottom than 100+ losses, we're in for another decade of garbage on the field.  I'm guessing he's not like that.

[Vanimal46]

 

We will simply need to agree to disagree.  The Twins can crawl out of the cellar next year with some pick ups and progressively move up the division in the following years.  This only will work if they don't dig themselves into a deeper hole.  You are advocating staying in the cellar for another three years, as if five years wasn't enough already.  I'm not sure why anyone would be absolutist about gutting the franchise when doing so has been proven to not be the cure to a struggling team.   

 

I would wager that Falvey would never consider making the team any worse in the short term.  It's possible to get improved prospects without creating holes upon holes.  At some point you have to draw the a line and call it the bottom, the worst acceptable state.  Once you hit that, you stop cutting and start building.  If Falvey wants a lower bottom than 100+ losses, we're in for another decade of garbage on the field.  I'm guessing he's not like that.

I would also hope that Falvey realizes the market for SP this winter, realizes that Ervin's approaching the edge of the cliff, and gets real value for someone like that.

Instead of the last regime that squeezed every ounce of value out of players, and let them stay an additional year after that. 

[Doomtints]

 

I would also hope that Falvey realizes the market for SP this winter, realizes that Ervin's approaching the edge of the cliff, and gets real value for someone like that.

Instead of the last regime that squeezed every ounce of value out of players, and let them stay an additional year after that. 

 

About all I remember from the last five years is a whole lot of young guys -- some of whom were traded for -- who had no business playing in the majors either because they were not ready or were never going to be ready.

 

If you are talking about Hughes, Nolasco, Pelfrey -- those guys are in the minority and most of them were simply older versions of the young guys who had no business playing in the majors......

 

Hughes was a good pick up.  His extension was a terrible idea.  You could say the same for Suzuki if not for the fact that the Twins have not been able to find anyone even half as good as he is.  So there are roughly 1.5 players that fit your theory out of around 125 roster spots in the past five years.  

[TheLeviathan]

 

We will simply need to agree to disagree.  The Twins can crawl out of the cellar next year with some pick ups and progressively move up the division in the following years.  This only will work if they don't dig themselves into a deeper hole.  You are advocating staying in the cellar for another three years, as if five years wasn't enough already.  I'm not sure why anyone would be absolutist about gutting the franchise when doing so has been proven to not be the cure to a struggling team.   

 

I would wager that Falvey would never consider making the team any worse in the short term.  It's possible to get improved prospects without creating holes upon holes.  At some point you have to draw the a line and call it the bottom, the worst acceptable state.  Once you hit that, you stop cutting and start building.  If Falvey wants a lower bottom than 100+ losses, we're in for another decade of garbage on the field.  I'm guessing he's not like that.

 

If you're bad and you decide that you won't give up peak value players like Dozier and Santana out of fear you'll be worse, I find that terrible asset management.  We've bottomed out the fan base, we've bottomed out the record, it's time to be smart and realize what it's going to take to turn this around.

 

And if this offseason had some bounty of pitching that was literally overflowing and the market had all sorts of options to help our pitching, then MAYBE I'd consider that.  But it doesn't.  The FA crop is god awful both in top end talent an in depth.  Trade options are going to have ludicrious prices on them from the demand and lack of supply.  

 

Hanging on to Santana now is like the Hughes extension.  It's blindly believing something that is a mirage (our chances in 2017) should lead you to invest rather than maximize value.  

 

The combination of Ervin's age, contract, and performance coupled with the options available in the offseason should spell out a pretty simple gameplan: shop him.