Where do you see Tyler Duffey fitting on the staff going forward?

[Dantes929]

 

Where's your LH starter in that rotation? We can't survive without a lefty in the mix.

Not sure why that is.    I would actually like a knuckleballer instead.     That seems to mess with team's heads more than throwing left handed.    

[jimmer]

 

Not sure why that is.    I would actually like a knuckleballer instead.     That seems to mess with team's heads more than throwing left handed.    

Preeeety sure he was being sarcastic.

[DaveW]

I think Duffeys days as a starter are numbered, however I do think he could absolutely THRIVE in the bullpen as an 7th/8th inning type guy who can get you 6 outs when needed.

[jorgenswest]

I would give Duffey 50 starts. He has shown enough to have upside. I would give May the same. They are both in my rotation next year along with Berrios and Gibson. If you are going to develop your own pitching, there are going to be some rocky stretches.

 

I would give both that long stretch before the group in AA starts to hit the majors in 2018.

[FormerMinnasotan]

Duffey isn't blocking Berrios. Management was partly responsible (refer to Ryan interview about "earning it"), salaries committed (easy to understand ownership insisting on getting something for their money--and maybe punishing the FO for "their decision to sign this guy") and Berrios himself (initial performance poor). I'm confident come August he'll be up with the Twins--either at the expense of Nolasco or Milone. It makes no difference to me for which of those two.

 

I am confused why some rookies get "cut so much slack" by posters for their obvious shortcomings but Duffey, it's off with his head. He can finish this year in the rotation and add to his experience level. We have observed many times (with other players) that Rochester experience just doesn't "cut it". As far as next season, Duffey will be in the mix for the rotation. Trust me, there will be a merry-go-round of guys from the rotation to Rochester and/or the bullpen. There just isn't enough quality in the "first five" to etch their names in steel.

Berrios wasn't cut any slack after 4 starts. Yes his last start was horrible but over all he pitched just like a rookie. Duffey and Berrios were drafted in the same year with Berrios being a 1st round pick and Duffey being a 5th round pick. This also isn't the first string of rough starts Duffey has had, he had a 5 (or was it 6) start stretch where he posted an ERA over 8 over those starts. I just think the Twins have to give Berrios every opportunity to succeed just like they do for Duffey.

[70charger]

 

He'll go the way guys lacking elite power arms generally go.  Most likely, at best, he's Radke, Baker, Slowey, Blackburn--Pick one.  At best, he's a back of the rotation guy who might be able to help you get within a sniff of the playoffs but will never help you seriously contend for a title. 

You can't be serious.

 

No seriously, you can't if you equate Radke to Blackburn. Utterly and completely ridiculous.

 

 

[Vanimal46]

 

Not sure why that is.    I would actually like a knuckleballer instead.     That seems to mess with team's heads more than throwing left handed.    

As a former knuckleballer myself (because I couldn't throw a curve for a strike if my life depended on it) I endorse this move. 

[alarp33]

 

Duffey isn't blocking Berrios. Management was partly responsible (refer to Ryan interview about "earning it"), salaries committed (easy to understand ownership insisting on getting something for their money--and maybe punishing the FO for "their decision to sign this guy") and Berrios himself (initial performance poor). I'm confident come August he'll be up with the Twins--either at the expense of Nolasco or Milone. It makes no difference to me for which of those two.

 

I am confused why some rookies get "cut so much slack" by posters for their obvious shortcomings but Duffey, it's off with his head. He can finish this year in the rotation and add to his experience level. We have observed many times (with other players) that Rochester experience just doesn't "cut it". As far as next season, Duffey will be in the mix for the rotation. Trust me, there will be a merry-go-round of guys from the rotation to Rochester and/or the bullpen. There just isn't enough quality in the "first five" to etch their names in steel.

 

I found this humorous because in paragraph 1 you said Berrios isn't up because of his poor performance (4 starts)

 

And then in the 2nd paragraph asked why Duffey doesn't get cut any slack.  (ERA > 6 in 17 starts).  

 

More humor - I haven't seen Greg Maddux's name mentioned as a comp for Duffey as much in the past couple of months as I did in May

[Mike Sixel]

 

Thanks for the updated/better information. I have read in the past that young pitchers who increase their innings by more than 20 form one year to the next tend to have issues the following year.  Duffy went from 149 in 2014 to 196 in 2015 and is having trouble in 2016.  I think there is a real possibility that he is going through some arm fatigue which is effecting his mechanics. More to the point of this thread, I wouldn't send him to the bullpen just yet - starters are hard to find, he had success last year and this of all years is one where you can give someone some rope and not worry about results. I would DL him for 15 days, bring him back into the rotation and give him 3-4 more starts before consigning him to a bullpen role. We need starters... badly.  

 

that "study" is bunk......there is zero evidence that is true. But, the myth lives on.

 

As for Duffey, sure, I'd leave him as a starter, why not? But, I think he ends up a bullpen arm next year.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Thanks for the updated/better information. I have read in the past that young pitchers who increase their innings by more than 20 form one year to the next tend to have issues the following year.  Duffy went from 149 in 2014 to 196 in 2015 and is having trouble in 2016.  I think there is a real possibility that he is going through some arm fatigue which is effecting his mechanics.

I think you mean 20%, not 20 innings.  His 2014-2015 increase still beats that, at 32%, but it's not that egregious.  His first full pro season (2013) saw a 72% increase over his college/pro innings from 2012.  He had another 23% increase from 2013-2014.

[Kwak]

 

I found this humorous because in paragraph 1 you said Berrios isn't up because of his poor performance (4 starts)

 

And then in the 2nd paragraph asked why Duffey doesn't get cut any slack.  (ERA > 6 in 17 starts).  

 

More humor - I haven't seen Greg Maddux's name mentioned as a comp for Duffey as much in the past couple of months as I did in May

Where did you read Greg Maddux in my post??? He isn't mentioned!

 

Berrios was demoted for poor performance. However I didn't claim that he "should have been demoted"--I only stated a fact. I think they could have given him a longer leash--but would concede that if his self-confidence was destroyed that "a step back" might be the right action. I really don't know what Berrios's state of mind was at the time, though we do know he "struggled" at Rochester for a bit before he turned the ship around to the right course. (OK enough clichés for a while).

 

Other players--also include position players. Duffey's ERA? Of course it's terrible--but if you actually read my post (there wasn't any humor in it!)--this season doesn't matter. Let the young guys struggle: like Sano in the field (any place in the field, he stinks there!) but more time as a fielder will be useful later, let Buxton play--maybe his hitting will improve. If it  doesn't, then start looking for a replacement; the same could be said for others--let them play this year! Then, assess things this fall. Berrios? (who I did mention several times)--his promotion can come next week. That gives all the time Anthony needs to make a decision (trade, bullpen, or cut bait) on Nolasco and Milone. Ergo, today, Friday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday--then promote Berrios (just like I have said before!).

 

[Mr. Brooks]

Although I think he's a reliever, not a starter, I'm fine giving him 25 more starts. It doesn't really matter at this point.

Someone needs to go down for Berrios though.

[mikelink45]

 

Matter of fact, last year and this year are pretty similar if you look at predictive stats like SIERA that look at peripherals.  Last year his SIERA was 3.83,  this year it is 4.18 (xFIP 3.64 vs 4.02.)  His problem has been that his HR/FB rate is 19.3% vs 7.9%, his BABIP .25 point higher (at .340) and his strand rate is 63.6% vs 79.6%.   With league normal HR/FB (10%), BABIP (.295) and LOB% (70%), his numbers start to look closer to the ones of last season.

 

His problem even last season has been when his opponents figured out that they can just lay off the curve and wait for the fastball...

 

Got to look beyond the 3.10 vs 6.18 ETA and the 5-1 vs 5-8 record

It would be nice to look beyond won and loss.  Maybe I can pretend we are actually a team with a winning record or are we at a point where wins don't count?  He does not have it.  He is missing something.  He is not new, he is scouted.  The other teams adjust.  How about us - do we adjust?

[mikelink45]

 

Matter of fact, last year and this year are pretty similar if you look at predictive stats like SIERA that look at peripherals.  Last year his SIERA was 3.83,  this year it is 4.18 (xFIP 3.64 vs 4.02.)  His problem has been that his HR/FB rate is 19.3% vs 7.9%, his BABIP .25 point higher (at .340) and his strand rate is 63.6% vs 79.6%.   With league normal HR/FB (10%), BABIP (.295) and LOB% (70%), his numbers start to look closer to the ones of last season.

 

His problem even last season has been when his opponents figured out that they can just lay off the curve and wait for the fastball...

 

Got to look beyond the 3.10 vs 6.18 ETA and the 5-1 vs 5-8 record

It would be nice to look beyond won and loss.  Maybe I can pretend we are actually a team with a winning record or are we at a point where wins don't count?  He does not have it.  He is missing something.  He is not new, he is scouted.  The other teams adjust.  How about us - do we adjust?

[King]

Without reading this thread. I will add my opinion.

 

For starters, he has an xFIP- 94 which is that of an above average starter. His BABIP is .340 and HR/FB is 19.3%, both of which he's been unlucky in the run prevention department, and one of the reasons for the bloated ERA.

 

I would leave him in the rotation to work out any kinks and expect him to perform like a league average starter as soon as next season - which is a valuable piece, especially on his current contract.

 

I wouldn't mess around by yanking him and the rotation and the bullpen, like we have done with Trevor May (who I think should be in the rotation as well).

[twins_89]

I'd like to see Duffey and May swap roles for the rest of the year. That way the team could evaluate each in a role where they might be best suited to succeed.

[jimbo92107]

I could see Duffey trading places with Berrios for two or three weeks while Duffey straightens out his inconsistent mechanics. He's got the talent to be a good mlb pitcher, especially with his dominant curve. His biggest flaw is that his 4-seam fastball doesn't move a bit, and it hovers between 89 and 92mph. He should stop throwing his 4-seamer anywhere near the zone. Stick with the 2-seamer, learn a cutter to break left, then sprinkle in the change. Duffey's 4-seamer should be reserved for chin music and pitch-outs.

[Jham]

Duffey seems really due for one of those mysterious Twins "forearm strains" which will give Berrios a few starts without a full commitment.  I believe Duffey's future is in the rotation.  I predicted that last year's success was based on pinpoint control of the curveball that he threw at 2 speeds, which is almost impossible to do consistently.  More often feel comes and goes.  Think Boof Bonser.  But Duffey has a decent running fastball, and a change up is one of the easiest pitches to master, now that Neil is coming back.  Or maybe Eddie G can teach him that split which semi-revived Pelf's career.  Maybe this year's results will finally hammer home to Duffey that he needs an actual 3rd pitch (I remember him claiming he had 3 pitches in interviews because he throws 2 speeds of curve balls).  

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

I have to be honest that I have not seen many of his starts. Has anyone noticed any obvious sequencing and location predictability that may be leading to him getting lit up? It is my opinion and observation that Suzuki is a pretty poor sequence/location game caller, so just wondering if anyone has noticed this while Duffey has pithed.

[Vanimal46]

With the acquisition of new LH from the Giants, the odds increase for Duffey in the pen beginning in 2017.

[Otwins]

 

He'll go the way guys lacking elite power arms generally go.  Most likely, at best, he's Radke, Baker, Slowey, Blackburn--Pick one.  At best, he's a back of the rotation guy who might be able to help you get within a sniff of the playoffs but will never help you seriously contend for a title. 

I don't think Radke belongs in a group with Blackburn

[shs_59]

personally i don't think Duffey has the stuff to succeed in the American League as a starting pitcher (currently)

 

put him in the N.L and he's a future #3 or #4 starter long-term

 

Here, with 2 curveballs (1-7) and big slow curve, and 2 fast-balls and THATS IT all he throws , topping at 91 or 93 MPH.

 

he's a 5th starter, at best.

 

Duffey needs to develop either a cutter or a change-up thats actually worthy of being used.

[dxpavelka]

 

You can't be serious.

 

No seriously, you can't if you equate Radke to Blackburn. Utterly and completely ridiculous.

I'll give you that Radke was a better pitcher than Blackburn.But given that, where does Duffey line up in comparison to the two of them?

[dxpavelka]

 

I don't think Radke belongs in a group with Blackburn

I'll give you that Radke was a better pitcher than Blackburn.  But given that, where does Duffey line up in comparison to the two of them?

 

[dxpavelka]

 

I'll give you that Radke was a better pitcher than Blackburn.But given that, where does Duffey line up in comparison to the two of them?

I'll give you that Radke was a better pitcher than Blackburn.But given that, where does Duffey line up in comparison to the two of them?

[gocgo]

Wait...what?  Did you just quote yourself with the same quote?  I'm in a loop!

[King]

 

Wait...what?  Did you just quote yourself with the same quote?  I'm in a loop!

My mind has been blown.

[laloesch]

 

I'd like to see Duffey and May swap roles for the rest of the year. That way the team could evaluate each in a role where they might be best suited to succeed.

 

That's a good idea.  Keep in mind though that May would be getting the raw end of the deal as he's been in the reliever role all season and would not have the benefit of spring training to adjust.  He'd also have to be stretched out which would take several outings to accomplish.