Where do you see Tyler Duffey fitting on the staff going forward?

[Vanimal46]

After taking us all by surprise last season by keeping the Twins in contention, Tyler Duffey has certainly floundered this season. He's completed 6 or more innings in 8 of 17 starts this season, and trending in the wrong direction the last 2 starts. It could be a sophomore slump, or it could be where teams have enough data on him now to know what's coming. 

Can we go into 2017 penciling him in the starting rotation again? Is he better suited for the bullpen? What do you think?

[alarp33]

I would love to hear an explanation from the FO/ Manager on why he was picked to be a starter and May was chosen to go to the bullpen.  

 

 

2017: Berrios, May, Gibson, Santana (if he's still around) and Trade or FA signing.  

 

Should be plenty of openings in the bullpen for Duffey to get a shot there, perhaps as the long man who can make starts if needed. 

[HitInAPinch]

AAA.   What the Twins pitching staff has been trying to teach him [ example:  working on his most important pitch (curve) to be more north/south ] isn't sticking.  Lessons not learned are for MiLB. 

 

If he were to rebound like he did last year, that would be a different story.  It's just not happening now.  All part of the development process.  It's just getting too brutal. 

 

Send Duffey down now, bring up Jose Berrios and plan on both being a part of the MLB rotation next year.

[gunnarthor]

I don't have a problem with letting him continue to try starting but not at the expense of Berrios.  As a starter, he has shown some potential but when his control is off as bad as last night ....  But I'd still rather move Nolasco to the pen than Duffey.  And if they want to fix him at AAA as a starter, that's ok too.

[Thrylos]

What happened last night is what happens when you have a pitcher with only one good pitch, that happens not to be a fastball, and that good pitch is not working for him.  They laid off the curve and waiting for hitable fastballs.

 

Duffey is not a starting pitcher.  He can be a good setup man in the pen, and he should be there.  If the Twins have any sense, they will stretch May and switch them

[Mike Sixel]

I think he's a bullpen arm. Shocking since his college thought he was a reliever.......

[tobi0040]

What happened last night is what happens when you have a pitcher with only one good pitch, that happens not to be a fastball, and that good pitch is not working for him.  They laid off the curve and waiting for hitable fastballs.

 

Duffey is not a starting pitcher.  He can be a good setup man in the pen, and he should be there.  If the Twins have any sense, they will stretch May and switch them

You guys beat me to it. Duffey has two pitches and May has four. Duffey probably throws 95 out of the pen and has a good curve. He could be an asset there. Switch these guys.

 

Unfortunately this isn’t that complicated.

[gunnarthor]

May has nothing to do with Duffey.  I think they should give him a shot at starting as well.  Although he's been so bad this year that Molitor probably isn't ready to let that happen.  And that's the problem, Molitor thinks he's a reliever just like Meyer.  I like that they are giving Duffey the shot, they should for May as well - although I do think that May would have to be sent to down to stretch out a bit before starting here.  

[mikelink45]

I do not know.  Last year was great, this year was horrible.  He was handed the job and Berrios was sent down.  The Berrios handling will always frustrate me, but the patience that Duffey has been shown in comparison makes the decision making even more difficult to understand.

 

I suspect Duffey will be a starting pitcher in the future, a curve ball pitcher can induce too many passed balls for a reliever.  But beyond, Gibson, Berrios, Santana I am now sure how I can see the future rotation. 

 

The minor league reports seem to show Jay and Stewart moving up and a few more with some promise, but like most of the readers we only have the words that Seth posts (which I really appreciate).  

I know we will still have Nolasco next year and we have Hughes for three more years so for now I guess they round out the starting five until someone comes in and actually creates a plan.

[Steve Lein]

Even when he's been good (last year and at times this year), I've always thought his place ultimately would be in the bullpen.

 

A bit odd to say that, considering he's been their best reliever to starter conversion by far, but for all the love J.T. Chargois is getting as a reliever, some may forget he shared the closer duties with Duffey at Rice, and was the better of the two the year they were drafted (11.9 vs. 9.1 K/9, threw 14 more innings, better ERA, better BAA) even though Chargois went in the 2nd round and Duffey in the 5th (big fastball played into that).

 

If the Twins aren't going to clear a rotation spot by trading Santana or unloading Nolasco or anyone else, I would think his spot is prime for Berrios to take over.

[Everyday Eddy]

Duffey is mentally and mechanically a mess right now.    I saw a different release point on every pitch last night.    Needs to be sent down to figure it regardless if he's a bullpen arm or starter going forward

[Winston Smith]

Let's hope the new GM does a total overhaul of the pitching development in the minors.

[Loosey]

 

After taking us all by surprise last season by keeping the Twins in contention, Tyler Duffey has certainly floundered this season. He's completed 6 or more innings in 8 of 17 starts this season, and trending in the wrong direction the last 2 starts. It could be a sophomore slump, or it could be where teams have enough data on him now to know what's coming. 

Can we go into 2017 penciling him in the starting rotation again? Is he better suited for the bullpen? What do you think?

 

I think the bullpen is probably the long-term solution for him.  He has one plus MLB pitch.  His fastball seems pretty flat and doesn't get much faster than 91.  If he isn't locating his fastball near perfect he gets rocked.  If he can locate his fastball perfectly he is a good pitcher, but that in my opinion is difficult to do consistently for 6+ innings every 5 days.

 

Now if you pitch him every other day and couple days in a row here and there out of the pen for an inning of two I think his repertoire can play in the majors consistently.

 

[Thrylos]

 

I do not know.  Last year was great, this year was horrible.  

 

Matter of fact, last year and this year are pretty similar if you look at predictive stats like SIERA that look at peripherals.  Last year his SIERA was 3.83,  this year it is 4.18 (xFIP 3.64 vs 4.02.)  His problem has been that his HR/FB rate is 19.3% vs 7.9%, his BABIP .25 point higher (at .340) and his strand rate is 63.6% vs 79.6%.   With league normal HR/FB (10%), BABIP (.295) and LOB% (70%), his numbers start to look closer to the ones of last season.

 

His problem even last season has been when his opponents figured out that they can just lay off the curve and wait for the fastball...

 

Got to look beyond the 3.10 vs 6.18 ETA and the 5-1 vs 5-8 record

[DocBauer]

He may ultimately turn our to be a reliever. Maybe even a good one. But at this point, I'd still keep working him as a SP. We've seen some of what he is capable of, even in this disappointing season. Not saying he doesn't have stuff to work on, or that he lacks consistency. But has he even pitched the equivalent of a full ML season yet? I just have a hard time already deciding he's a reliever.

 

He shouldn't be up at Berrios expense either. But then again, we have a guy or two in the current rotation that should be gone and gone soon.

 

And, as always, May back to starting in my book.

[Willihammer]

I'm not giving up on Duff the starter yet. Bert is right, IMO. When he keeps the front side closed, his curveball is devastating. When he flies open, like he has lately, he hangs em. Bert thought he could take a page from Ryan Pressly with using glove hand to stay closed. I'd send him down and tell him to figure out how to stay closed. But keep him in a rotation definitely.

[FormerMinnasotan]

Cosidering the options coming up by next year in the minors, and the Twins using Duff to block Berrios or May this year unless he is going to the bullpen I wouldn't be too committed to keeping him for 2017. Duffey in reality is a 2 pitch pitcher with his "2nd" pitch being an average at best fastball that clocks around 90 with no real movement. Sounds like a back end to bully type of pitcher to me. I mean when you have guys like Berrios, May, Gonsalves, Jay, Stewart, Romero, and Jorge waiting in the wings a pitcher like Duffey is expendable and NOT NEEDED on a Twins team like this.

[d-mac]

I think Duffey and Berrios should be flip-flopped right now. I can see Duffey getting one more shot next year in the rotation and see how that goes. Next year's rotation should be Berrios, May, Gibson, Duffey, (FA high risk/reward type or Wheeler). 

 

Duffey's lack of a true third pitch makes will make it difficult for him up here as a starter, but it is not impossible, he could turn into a solid, cost controlled starter. Taking that chance now and next year (since we aren't contending) is worth the risk. But it should not happen at the expense of Berrios or May. 

 

FWIW, Duffey's peripherals are not that bad this year, not as good as last year obviously, but his ERA should be in the low 4's. He is giving up harder contact this year, but that doesn't explain an unsustainably low strand rate of 63.6% or a HR/FB of 19.3%.

 

EDIT: He's got redonkulous home/road splits with his HR/FB rate, it's more than 2x higher on the road than home!

[tobi0040]

Duffy almost looks like he's running out of gas. He ramped up the innings last year to 138 from 111 in 2014 and he's already at 85 this year. I would suggest either a breif trip back to AAA and reduced load, or a 15 day DL stint with Berrios taking his spot. Wheeler can take the spot of Nolasco in the unlikely event we can get rid of Ricky. We then have a few starts to evaluate where Berrios and Wheeler are in their development. Let's see if Duffy can get his form back as a starter after a brief breather. If not, put him in the bullpen in September.

As noted above, his predictive stats have been about the same the last two years.

 

Luck has swung. He was really lucky last year and not so much this year. But the reality remains, can he succeed with two pitches as a starter? His fastball is about average. So one plus pitch and another ok pitch.

 

If he ever loses command or can't throw the curve for a strike (which has happened) hitters just sit on the fastball.

[Mike Sixel]

For those that are big into scouting.....and not advanced stats....it is hard to make the case a 2 pitcher pitcher is a starter.....

[Willihammer]

He does throw a changeup. Arguably his best pitch this season actually.

[bustedstuff88]

Why do the Twins seem to have the situation of a pitcher being good for one year then being bad the rest of their time hear more often than other teams?

 

Sure once data is collected on a guy teams can have his number more but.....come on. Nobody else seems to have this problem as often as we do.

 

Then to make it worse they go to another team and have a career renaissance. Something stinks here...

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Duffy almost looks like he's running out of gas.  He ramped up the innings last year to 138 from 111 in 2014 and he's already at 85 this year. I would suggest either a breif trip back to AAA and reduced load, or a 15 day DL stint with Berrios taking his spot.

I think you are missing some levels with your innings counts.  Here are Duffey's total innings (MLB + minors), by year:

 

2013: 121

2014: 149.1

2015: 196

2016 so far: 105.1

 

I think the simpler explanation is more likely -- he's just pitched poorly this year.  Pitchers who consistently struggle often give the impression they are worn down.

[Linus]

I don't believe he will have consistent success as a starter with that fastball. It's really mediocre at best and batting practice when off. He might be good out of the pen for an inning or two where he could pitch backwards

[dxpavelka]

He'll go the way guys lacking elite power arms generally go.  Most likely, at best, he's Radke, Baker, Slowey, Blackburn--Pick one.  At best, he's a back of the rotation guy who might be able to help you get within a sniff of the playoffs but will never help you seriously contend for a title. 

[HitInAPinch]

 

He does throw a changeup. Arguably his best pitch this season actually.

Thanks.  I thought I had heard 'changeup' in the broadcasts.  His mechanics are messy and he's overthrowing to compensate.  IMHO

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

I personally feel that he seems like a guy who could be very good as a late innings reliever. Might be able to amp up his velo a tick or two, and make his curve more difficult to hit then too.

[Dantes929]

He was very good last year because he had great command.    His fast ball was fine because it was hitting corners and he was throwing curveballs for strikes or just off the plate.    This year his command has been bad and his cruveball a bit flat..   IMO, that is all it is.     He still has the stuff to be a starter.  Just like Liriano and Crain and Berrios, send him down and let him work it out.   In the mean time bring Berrios up because he deserves it.     Sometimes it is simply up to the player.    I am rooting for Duffey to find his command again and have the rotation of Berrios, Gibson, May, Duffey and Santana.   The fact that there are enough question marks there make me want to keep Santana.

[Vanimal46]

He was very good last year because he had great command. His fast ball was fine because it was hitting corners and he was throwing curveballs for strikes or just off the plate. This year his command has been bad and his cruveball a bit flat.. IMO, that is all it is. He still has the stuff to be a starter. Just like Liriano and Crain and Berrios, send him down and let him work it out. In the mean time bring Berrios up because he deserves it. Sometimes it is simply up to the player. I am rooting for Duffey to find his command again and have the rotation of Berrios, Gibson, May, Duffey and Santana. The fact that there are enough question marks there make me want to keep Santana.

Where's your LH starter in that rotation? We can't survive without a lefty in the mix.

[Kwak]

Duffey isn't blocking Berrios. Management was partly responsible (refer to Ryan interview about "earning it"), salaries committed (easy to understand ownership insisting on getting something for their money--and maybe punishing the FO for "their decision to sign this guy") and Berrios himself (initial performance poor). I'm confident come August he'll be up with the Twins--either at the expense of Nolasco or Milone. It makes no difference to me for which of those two.

 

I am confused why some rookies get "cut so much slack" by posters for their obvious shortcomings but Duffey, it's off with his head. He can finish this year in the rotation and add to his experience level. We have observed many times (with other players) that Rochester experience just doesn't "cut it". As far as next season, Duffey will be in the mix for the rotation. Trust me, there will be a merry-go-round of guys from the rotation to Rochester and/or the bullpen. There just isn't enough quality in the "first five" to etch their names in steel.