Trade Thoughts

[Loosey]

I'm an optimist.  The optimist in my sees the Twins recent success as a positive sign that the future could be closer than we all thought a month ago.

 

The Lineup is firing on all cylinders, but the rotation is lacking.  Most of the trade partners the Twins have been tied to will be looking for an established veteran player, while the Twins will most likely looking for a young prospect in return (E. Santana for Young Player X).

 

But what if the Twins did things differently?  Yes, I believe trading Santana, Nolasco, Plouffe, etc is still necessary, but what about adding younger talent to fill in the holes left by some of those guys immediately?

 

One trade target I would have in mind is the Padre's Drew Pomeranz.  He isn't uber young, but he is only 27 years old and isn't a Free Agent until 2019.  I understand the Twins have pitching prospect galore in A+ and AA, but what they don't have is someone ready to start this year and next year at the Major League level outside of Berrios.

 

If the Twins can move Santana, Release/DFA Milone again and possibly get someone, anyone to bite on Nolasco the innings eater it will create rotation openings.

 

If the above three scenarios happen here is they have left as true Major League options:

 

Berrios

Gibson

Duffey

 

I don't want Pat Dean to fill out the any of those spots, I want real pitchers who can get out major league hitters.

 

I would like to see Trevor May fill one of those spots:

 

Now the rotations looks like this:

 

Berrios

Gibson

Duffey

May

 

If the price is right, Pomeranz could be a nice addition to the staff.  He won't be an Ace, but he won't be Tommy Milone or Kevin Correia either.

 

I would think it would take one of the Twins AA pitching prospects + a lower level prospect (Pomeranz is still relatively unproven himself).

 

The beauty of the trade is he is under control just the right amount of time.  If he performs well he becomes another asset and could be moved in 2017 or more likely 2018 when the rest of the teams AA pitching prospects can prove they are ready to make the jump to the majors.  Or they let him ride it out and let him go in 2019 if he is a good mid-rotation type guy.

 

What are your thoughts on the Twins making this type of trade this year?  And what do you think it would take to get a player like Pomeranz?

 

 

 

[howieramone2]

Our favorite team is looking to win right now. Santana won't go unless they get a major haul. More likely is Plouffe and/or Polanco.

[Loosey]

 

Our favorite team is looking to win right now. Santana won't go unless they get a major haul. More likely is Plouffe and/or Polanco.

God, I hope they aren't so delusionally crazy that they think they can get back into it.  

 

 

[amjgt]

Santana can be part of the solution. Don't trade him. Any of the other pitching FA signings can go, as far as I am concerned. I'll lump Milone in that group too.

 

The only bullpen arm that make any sense from the Twins perspective (less than two years left of cost control) and from the perspective of a potential trade partner (they are worth a damn) is Abad. I'm fine if he gets traded, but I wouldn't have any sense of urgency about it.

 

Plouffe. Nice enough guy, but he's just completely squeezed off of this roster. There is very little reason to keep him around. Sure, if you could trade Mauer, I could find a place for Plouffe, but I can't think there's any interest in Mauer, whereas, there might be a little interest in Plouffe. Trade him as soon as possible.

 

Dozier. I'd listen if people are making offers, but I'd need something pretty decent. Good cost control. Good production. Plays a decent 2b. He can totally be part of the solution, but I'd have to listen because Polanco is knocking at the door, playing very good at AAA, and runs out of options this offseason.

 

Suzuki. Sure. Why not? He's been hot enough that he actually has some value now. If we trade him and he plays well, his new team will probably activate that option year. I've heard some people say we could just get him back in the offseason. I don't buy it, and if he went back to "normal Kurt", we wouldn't want him back anyway.

[lukeduke1980]

 

Any chance the Twins could interest the Marlins in a Ricky Nolasco reunion. I think both organizations would be a happy and the player would be happy to have a reunion with a team he had some success with. A class high A short stop or pitching product if the Twins throw in Kennys Vargas and some cash. Pipe dream world trade I know but would be nice to open up a spot for May or Berrios and let each the player and organization move on from each other.

Doesn't Ricky still vacation with Giancarlo?  One of their starters, Tom Koehler is sporting a Nolasco like 1.56 whip - at least Ricky can say his are usually against AL lineups.  And Miami is still in the wild card race.  We could add Plouffe and they can see what Bonds can do with him.

[Kwak]

We need Vanimal's photoshop from Game of Thrones/Unreasonable Trade Proposals turned into an emoji so we can reference similar to a "Like This".

[ashbury]

Our favorite team is looking to win right now.

If by "right now" you mean 2017, Ryan is quoted as saying as much. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/07/al-notes-red-sox-yankees-beltran-twins.html

 

If by "win" you mean a playoff push for this season, I think it'd be equally easy to dig up a quote saying no, he's a seller at the deadline this time around.

 

If you mean he wants to see his team finish strongly, split the difference between these two views, I suppose.

[Vanimal46]

 

We need Vanimal's photoshop from Game of Thrones/Unreasonable Trade Proposals turned into an emoji so we can reference similar to a "Like This".

Couldn't resist.... 



 

[Kwak]

The Twins have a history of being a "streaky" team. Even if July '16 emulates May '15, we should not be swayed. The 2017 season is like "Bali Hi" (​South Pacific). Trade the "peaking veterans" for youth and try this "rebuild" again. It should not be a secret that the Twins can find a shortcut to success--unless the "success bar" is lowered to .500 ball.

[clone52]

 

God, I hope they aren't so delusionally crazy that they think they can get back into it.  

 

Not this year, but I don't think you just dump Santana for garbage.  You dump if if you can get a decent return, but $13 million in 2017 and 2018 isn't a terrible price to pay for a pitcher of his caliber.

[diehardtwinsfan]

yeah, not sure I want to dump Santana... certainly would for the right offer, but I'd be trading Nolasco and Milone and DFAing them if there are no takers.  I'd trade Plouffe too.  Dozier is the guy I want a return for, but would actively seek to trade.  He's also the guy that could spark a bidding war. 

[Vanimal46]

yeah, not sure I want to dump Santana... certainly would for the right offer, but I'd be trading Nolasco and Milone and DFAing them if there are no takers. I'd trade Plouffe too. Dozier is the guy I want a return for, but would actively seek to trade. He's also the guy that could spark a bidding war.

 

Concur. I'm on the fence about Santana. Today I'm leaning towards trading him to get out of the commitment for his age 34-35 seasons. That could change tomorrow for all I know. Nolasco and Milone are most likely DFA candidates. Plouffe I'm not expecting anything of substance in a return. If there is zero interest by August, he can ride out the rest of the year in a bench role. A Dozier bidding war would be great.

[TheLeviathan]

Deal Santana if you get good value.  Ditto Dozier.  Ditto basically anyone other than Buxton-Sano-Berrios-Kepler.  Those are the only guys I'd make untouchable on the current/or near current roster.

[twinsnorth49]

Deal Santana if you get good value. Ditto Dozier. Ditto basically anyone other than Buxton-Sano-Berrios-Kepler. Those are the only guys I'd make untouchable on the current/or near current roster.

Yeah, pretty much this.

[Rosterman]

The Twins prospects are unproven. A team has to be getting rid of a high cost player to go after anyone the Twins currently see as playing in the future, or be in a total rebuild mode themselves. The Twins would be foolish to trade ANY prospect that MIGHT make an impact on their own team, especially for anyone approaching the end of arbitration or free agency themselves. At least this year and next year. They could trade blocked prospects with over-priced current players to get better lower class players (looking towards 2019 and beyond).

 

But we have to strongly remember that the Twins aren't the only team selling. And many other teams have cheap players they can move compared to our overpriced guys treading water.

 

plus, you can always bluff with the Twins and just hope they end up releasing guys (like Jepsen) that the Twins still have to pay.

 

We need two teams to show an interest in a player to get anything of value beyond immediate salary relief (and who is to say the Twins won't carry over salary to future seasons instead of writing everything off this year - not that major league baseball allows you to do that).

 

Which is why the Twins do need to strike in the favorable window Santana and Suzuki (and possibly Dozier) are giving them right now. Listen strongly and closely. You may just be releasing the Plouffe's and Nolasco's come August or the off-season.

[PseudoSABR]

The unfortunate/fortunate thing about the Twins pieces that have some value--Nunez, Santana, Dozier, even Plouffe--is that they are under team control for at least another year.  That gives the Twins leverage in not having to make a deal, but it also allows the foolhardy myth of being competitive next year to influence what the Twins may do.   

 

I fear that a team will have to overpay in terms of prospect-value to force the Twins hand.  So my prediction is nothing much happens.  

 

Edit: I forgot about Suzuki who should definitely be on the block, and given his batting line this year, his vesting option might be desirable to an acquiring club--to give that vesting option value (i.e. so the acquiring team can give Suzuki enough PAs to trigger) the Twins should look to deal him sooner rather than later.  The lack of credible major league catching, I also fear, may stay the Twins hand.

[drivlikejehu]

The option can just be exercised by the club. The vesting piece is the player side of the option.

[RedBull34]

To me saying trading a AA pitching prospect is heresy, seeing as Jay, Gonsalves, and Stewart are the names that spring to mind.  I don't want to see any of them traded!

[The Wise One]

 

To me saying trading a AA pitching prospect is heresy, seeing as Jay, Gonsalves, and Stewart are the names that spring to mind.  I don't want to see any of them traded!

Stewart, AB Walker, Ryan Eades  and a couple  of the lower level players drafted in the double digits that they want to take a flier on for 3 years of Sonny Gray. 2 preseason top 10 in the organization prospects a top 20, a couple of lottery tickets  Add Burdi and another player for Manaea

[PseudoSABR]

 

The option can just be exercised by the club. The vesting piece is the player side of the option.

Thanks. I mean that makes sense but for some reason the club option didn't occur to me.  

 

So much the better, as the option is an added attribute to Suzuki's trade value.

 

(Gosh, if the Twins don't deal him, they're gonna exercise that option aren't they...)

[shs_59]

for , me the Berrios, Sano, Buxton, Kepler off-limits 4-some , or four-some; can be lumped in there with Brian Dozier.

 

I think Dozier, not Mauer (obviously at this point) if the face of the franchise....

 

Too bad Dozier refers to the Twins as "they" though, when he's talking about them in the first person. (like in a post-game interview with FSN 's Marny Gellner) 

 

Instead of the Twins as We or Us or family, he refers to Twins as more of a business that i am currently working for and not in full agreement with 100% of the time, maybe its just a southern thing but it seems a bit odd.

 

Anyway, In other words, it would take a whole lot for a team to acquire Brian Dozier, i'm saying like 2 extremely quality young players or 3 total prospects all B- to B+ types.

[Loosey]

 

The unfortunate/fortunate thing about the Twins pieces that have some value--Nunez, Santana, Dozier, even Plouffe--is that they are under team control for at least another year.  That gives the Twins leverage in not having to make a deal, but it also allows the foolhardy myth of being competitive next year to influence what the Twins may do.   

 

I fear that a team will have to overpay in terms of prospect-value to force the Twins hand.  So my prediction is nothing much happens.  

 

Edit: I forgot about Suzuki who should definitely be on the block, and given his batting line this year, his vesting option might be desirable to an acquiring club--to give that vesting option value (i.e. so the acquiring team can give Suzuki enough PAs to trigger) the Twins should look to deal him sooner rather than later.  The lack of credible major league catching, I also fear, may stay the Twins hand.

I think the PA piece is just the guarantee of the option. If he is under the PAs it is just a regular club option.

[RedBull34]

 

Stewart, AB Walker, Ryan Eades  and a couple  of the lower level players drafted in the double digits that they want to take a flier on for 3 years of Sonny Gray. 2 preseason top 10 in the organization prospects a top 20, a couple of lottery tickets  Add Burdi and another player for Manaea

And why would the A's do this deal?  I would laugh and laugh and then hang up if I was Beane and I heard this deal.

 

It's a complete garbage deal.  Stewart is the only one with real value that you mentioned.

 

[ashbury]

It's a complete garbage deal.  Stewart is the only one with real value that you mentioned.

A data point: I had an opportunity a few weeks ago to ask Pawtucket manager Kevin Boles to scout his upcoming opponent, the Rochester Red Wings. The first player he mentioned was ABW, and power was naturally what he pointed to.

 

That's a very imprecise data point, for various reasons I won't bother going into in a thread such as this. But it at least tells me Walker is on other teams' radar. "Real" value? Yeah, who knows.

[RedBull34]

 

A data point: I had an opportunity a few weeks ago to ask Pawtucket manager Kevin Boles to scout his upcoming opponent, the Rochester Red Wings. The first player he mentioned was ABW, and power was naturally what he pointed to.

 

That's a very imprecise data point, for various reasons I won't bother going into in a thread such as this. But it at least tells me Walker is on other teams' radar. "Real" value? Yeah, who knows.

I mean fair enough but if Palka (and I'm keeping in mind before his recent tear) only fetched Hermann, ABW is definitely not going to be the swing piece in a deal that get's Gray.

 

Also, and unrelated, I'm curious if this is like he's a power threat like Sano, or more like Cerrano from Major League (now throw him a curve!)?

[jorgenswest]

The Twins should not be competing in this market for arms. There will be more desperate teams in the pennant race that will overpay. Teams have to overpay for younger arms with some team control in July. The demand far exceeds the supply.

[ashbury]

Also, and unrelated, I'm curious if this is like he's a power threat like Sano, or more like Cerrano from Major League (now throw him a curve!)?

As far as the Red Sox are concerned, I don't think I'd push very far with what their AAA manager had to say. (So why did I even bring it up? Because it's a data point.)

[The Wise One]

 

And why would the A's do this deal?  I would laugh and laugh and then hang up if I was Beane and I heard this deal.

 

It's a complete garbage deal.  Stewart is the only one with real value that you mentioned.

The prospects returned in the Gio Gonzales deal were not highly ranked at the time of the trade. You never know what Beane will do.AB Walker, one year in their system and he could replace the departing Butler.  Mostly I posted that proposition because of your comment on  the trading of AA pitching.  Heresy to garbage. 2 b prospects a c+prospect is garbage. 2 unranked prospects are garbage, yet the turmoil over Hu was rampant.. A clever trader and the board would have ammo for how stupid the Twins are

[GMinTraining]

 

Also, and unrelated, I'm curious if this is like he's a power threat like Sano, or more like Cerrano from Major League (now throw him a curve!)?

 

ABW has 20 of his 34 XBH's on off speed pitches this year.  Dozier leads the Twins with the same number of  XBH's (34)?  You can't lead your league for 3 straight full seasons in Total Bases and Extra Base Hits and be considered a HR or nothing type player.  Don't doubles and triples count?  Why are his 100+ minor league doubles excluded from conversations?  Defintely more than a HR player - Complete power in his game along with those strikeouts.  To overlook complete package is crazy.

[Rosterman]

You have to listen closely to everyone and counter as fast as possible. The stock of Twins players in is flux. You want value, but you also want to dump salary (although doubtful that any savings will carry over to higher futures.

 

A guy could be worth even less next season. And you roadblocked a future prospect or two.

 

You listen. You deal. You go forth. Any decision you make now reflects on the Twins in 2018 and beyond. Next year will happen. You can adjust your needs if you see fit in the free agent or minor free agent market. But by freeing up monies, you can reinvest in someone that MIGHT work as well, if not better, than what you currently overpaid for now.

 

Sadly, we still have Perkins and Hughes on the books for next season.

 

Of course, if anyone would claim these guys (or even Mauer) in August...I would be so tempted to let them walk and then deal with it going forth...get them back if they don't find a future home and you see promise heading into their waning years.

 

But job number one: CHANGE IN THE FRONT OFFICE then change on the field staff and change in the minor league system.

 

The Twins Way is NOT the way!