Twins second half record?

[Brock Beauchamp]

The Twins are currently an AL-worst 32-56 on the season winning just 36.4% of their games.

 

In July, the Twins are 7-3.

 

Over the past month, the Twins are 14-15.

 

There are 75 games left in the season.

 

How many games do the Twins win to close out the season?

 

41 wins leads to a .546 record (41-34).

 

38 wins leads to a virtual .500 record (38-37).

 

35 wins leads to a .467 record (35-40).

 

32 wins leads to a .426 record (32-43).

 

27 wins leads to a .373 record (27-48), which would match their first half winning percentage at .360.

 

What do you predict?

[Circus Boy]

Something else to ponder: For two series in a row, the Twins have stopped losing streaks at one game. That boosts confidence.

[Major League Ready]

I voted for 38 wins primarily because their approach throughout the lineup has looked very good lately and the bullpen has stabilized.  I think the offense will be pretty good maybe even very good the rest of the year.  However, they will likely lose some players by the deadline that will cost us a couple games so 35 wins might be a better estimate.

 

Santana is the most probable.  I can't imagine Berrios won't be here as soon as someone is traded and its hard to say how he is going to do out of the gate.  Then, there is Suzuki.  The man has been very good the past couple months and he seems like a very likely trade candidate.  It will hurt us the rest of the year to lose him. 

 

40 wins is in the cards if the starters can get it together.  The would mean Berrios is good out of the gate and we get the good version of Gibson and Duffey.  We could move May back to the rotation but that move should be executed for next season.

[gunnarthor]

Well, we'll see.  Despite the record, the team does have the pieces already in place for a pretty solid offense and we're starting to see some of it come together.  The pitching is still suspect but hopefully Berrios is up soon.  So, I'll vote for 38 and hope for a lot more.

[jorgenswest]

Started this poll just prior to the half way point. I wonder of perceptions have changed in a week.

 

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/23075-twins-record-second-half/

 

Looking at the early results, one week has changed perception.

[Mike Sixel]

I went 35. I could see 38, I could also see 32. 

[goulik]

Being the eternal optimist, I wanted to say 41 but the truth is, I really hope they make several trades and the team may nose dive by the end of the month.

 

Current team? 500 or slightly above

 

Team without E. Santana, Dozier, or Nunez? This thing could spiral quickly

 

This thing is MORE of a crap shoot at this point than at the beginning of any year...

[Willihammer]

This lineup is so much better with Sano back in it. I vote 35.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Being the eternal optimist, I wanted to say 41 but the truth is, I really hope they make several trades and the team may nose dive by the end of the month.

Current team? 500 or slightly above

Team without E. Santana, Dozier, or Nunez? This thing could spiral quickly

This thing is MORE of a crap shoot at this point than at the beginning of any year...

 

That was my thinking also....but they won't totally tank with Sano and Kepler, and I think Berrios does well on his return (which should be next week, imo).

[Thrylos]

May I take the under, based on the Twins' record?

 

Here is the difference in winning percentage of the Twins' teams this decade between first half and second half

 

2015: -.085
2014: -.086
2013: -.038
2012: -.034
2011: -.160

 

Average: -.081

 

 

So a .283 record the second half would be the norm for the Twins this decade.... 

No clue why you would think that this team would be the exception...

 

[beckmt]

Teams this decade had very little talent in the starting rotation and the bullpen got overused and then blew  up.  I went with 35 though I could hope for less and the #1 pick in the draft next year, plus a big international pool(if that still exists,  best chance of all of the CBA to be changed). 

[70charger]

 

I went 35. I could see 38, I could also see 32. 

 

I did too. There are too many holes in the starting rotation to expect a winning record, but I think with the production we're seeing from guys like Sano and Kepler, plus the bullpen turnaround, plus the easing of Buxton's learning curve, the team won't be utterly terrible.

[Vanimal46]

I went 32 wins mainly because I'm anticipating one or multiple veteran players traded in July/August. The lineup and bullpen are working well right now. But we've seen over the last 4-5 years when a bullpen is overused they start blowing games. The rotation has not been good enough to prevent an overworked bullpen.  

[HitInAPinch]

The Twins 2016 redo is in full motion now, with the exception of the starting staff.  That's only kinda started.  And anyway you look at it, more work needs to be done. 

 

Sano and Kepler have been fun to what, but the stats of both say more work needs to be done.  Buxton is making progress, but still learning.  Same with Rosaio.  BA-wise, Nunez and Suzuki are 1-2.

 

The bullpen is finally getting some rest, but improvement still needed.  IMHO: help is available via MiLB.

Starting Pitching?  The Milone experience should be over and Berrios brought up.  What to do with Nolasco?  E. Santana could be the 1 tradeable starter.  I'm not all that up on the real potential of the other MiLB starters.

 

Hmm, guess I'm somewhere between 38 and 27 wins.  Probably leaning towards 35 as the young players get more MLB development time.   

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I went 35. I could see 38, I could also see 32. 

Ditto.

[Major League Ready]

 

May I take the under, based on the Twins' record?

 

Here is the difference in winning percentage of the Twins' teams this decade between first half and second half

 

2015: -.085
2014: -.086
2013: -.038
2012: -.034
2011: -.160

 

Average: -.081

 

 

So a .283 record the second half would be the norm for the Twins this decade.... 

No clue why you would think that this team would be the exception...

For starters, they won 5 of the first 6 second half games.  Therefore, they would have to go 18-58 the rest of the way to produce the .283 win percentage you have predicted.  

 

I really dont know what number is reasonable because I think that is highly dependent on how many productive players are traded.  I do know that I would not base it on the average decline in win rate over the past few years.  That is an exceptionally poor methodology.

 

I hope they trade all of Santana, Nolasco, Abad, Nunez, Suzuki, and Plouffe.  We will fewer games but it is the best long-term approach and will actually enjoy watching the transformation to the players that will lead us back to contention.

[ashbury]

I went 35. I could see 38, I could also see 32. 

You mean that a team legitimately slotted to win N games based on available talent, even if that was knowable, might vary N-3 to N+3 due to random factors? Do I need to trot out the You Don't Say guy again?

 

Put me down for 35 wins in the poll. Plus or minus twenty.

[Vanimal46]

 

You mean that a team legitimately slotted to win N games based on available talent, even if that was knowable, might vary N-3 to N+3 due to random factors? Do I need to trot out the You Don't Say guy again?

 

Put me down for 35 wins in the poll. Plus or minus twenty.

Rookies, I tell ya. Don't people know you choose ONE number, then battle to the death that your prediction is right, and everyone else is wrong?*

*Other than the people that also chose your win total. 

[Dantes929]

Twins were 36-39 in their last 75 last year.    Sano, Rosario, Escobar, Duffey, Santana and Jepsen were all going very strong.   Hunter, Perkins, Dozier, Susuki were horrible and Mauer was poor.     I still believe that this team is better than last year in terms of talent and adding Kepler and  makes it better still and if Buxton figures it out who knows how good this offense can be.    Adding Berrios should help.    Of course none of this occurs in a vacuum.   In 75 games much depends on how the other team is playing and with call-ups who is playing.     Its really unfortunate that the AS break is now because baseball is a game of momentum and confidence.     What makes this season different is that 23 guys were playing horribly in the first 75 and now most of the guys are playing well.    If I had to bet I would say 38.   Whatever Vegas says I would bet the over.     

As Tom Kelly would say this is better than a .364 team.  

[Craig Arko]

Rookies, I tell ya. Don't people know you choose ONE number, then battle to the death that your prediction is right, and everyone else is wrong?*

*Other than the people that also chose your win total.

 

#rookielivesmatter

 

Sorry, couldn't resist.

[Dantes929]

 

The Twins are currently an AL-worst 32-36 on the season winning just 36.4% of their games.

 

In July, the Twins are 7-3.

 

Over the past month, the Twins are 14-15.

 

There are 75 games left in the season.

 

How many games do the Twins win to close out the season?

 

41 wins leads to a .546 record (41-34).

 

38 wins leads to a virtual .500 record (38-37).

 

35 wins leads to a .467 record (35-40).

 

32 wins leads to a .426 record (32-43).

 

27 wins leads to a .373 record (27-48), which would match their first half winning percentage at .360.

 

What do you predict?

Correction would be that they are 32-56 rather than 32-36.   I see you posted it today which either means you are wrong and they have 74 games left which means we are off to a 1-0 start for the final 75 or that you think there will be a game 163 in which case I like the way you think.

[bird]

 

May I take the under, based on the Twins' record?

 

Here is the difference in winning percentage of the Twins' teams this decade between first half and second half

 

2015: -.085
2014: -.086
2013: -.038
2012: -.034
2011: -.160

 

Average: -.081

 

 

So a .283 record the second half would be the norm for the Twins this decade.... 

No clue why you would think that this team would be the exception...

 

No clue as to why you would think any of those numbers are relevant to this team this year.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Correction would be that they are 32-56 rather than 32-36.   I see you posted it today which either means you are wrong and they have 74 games left which means we are off to a 1-0 start for the final 75 or that you think there will be a game 163 in which case I like the way you think.

It was a typo.

[Mike Sixel]

Has anyone looked at SoS the rest of the way?

 

As for Buxton.....I think this is who he is this year, with some small progress. Next year, imo, is the year of progress (this is clearly just a guess).

[Mike Sixel]

 

You mean that a team legitimately slotted to win N games based on available talent, even if that was knowable, might vary N-3 to N+3 due to random factors? Do I need to trot out the You Don't Say guy again?

 

Put me down for 35 wins in the poll. Plus or minus twenty.

 

heh.......I could also see a lot less, but I have to squint more on those. Weird how bell curves work....

[Craig Arko]

heh.......I could also see a lot less, but I have to squint more on those. Weird how bell curves work....

Maybe it's a step distribution, or a sawtooth distribution.

[ashbury]

Maybe it's a step distribution, or a sawtooth distribution.

I am working on wins-forecasting software that will be a Dirac delta distribution, but it's still got a few bugs I have to work out.

[TNTwinsFan]

The starting pitching just isn't there. I think Santana is moved and Berrios is called up. Rotation is something like:

 

Gibson

Duffey

Nolasco

Berrios

Milone

 

I see too many hiccups from all of them to get too optimistic. If they play .500 ball the rest of the way I'd be a happy fan.

[Major League Ready]

 

Being the eternal optimist, I wanted to say 41 but the truth is, I really hope they make several trades and the team may nose dive by the end of the month.

Current team? 500 or slightly above

Team without E. Santana, Dozier, or Nunez? This thing could spiral quickly

This thing is MORE of a crap shoot at this point than at the beginning of any year...

And if the above is not enough to make the 2nd half hard to predict, let's add ...

 

Can Kepler continue to produce at this level or will the league adjust?

 

What about Vargas?  That dude looks like a different player.  Is he for real?

 

Rosario has actually demonstrated some discipline and guess what, he is pretty productive hitting balls in the strike zone.  Will he lose his mind (discipline) again?

 

How about Buxton?  You would like to think he will follow the same pattern and adjust to the next level.

 

What about Berrios and Chargois?  What will they contribute and how long will it take them to contribute at the ML level.

 

I am sure we could come up with a few more.  How to predict is beyond me but I am feeling a lot better about the future.  All of the above are interesting topics on their own.

[wsnydes]

 

Rookies, I tell ya. Don't people know you choose ONE number, then battle to the death that your prediction is right, and everyone else is wrong?*

*Other than the people that also chose your win total. 

Poll response by combat.