Article: Examining Potential 40-man Additions

[bluechipper]

 

Wimmers is an interesting case. He's closing in Rochester, so they must see some value in him. But, he's not up. If he's not up this year, I'll be disappointed if they protect him. Not valuable enough to test him out on a terrible, lost season, but valuable enough to protect? That would seem odd to me....

Wimmers has a 4.35 ERA with 7.3 K/9 this year between AA and AAA, and he's 27 years old. His draft position is basically the only reason he'd be added and called up this year.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Wimmers has a 4.35 ERA with 7.3 K/9 this year between AA and AAA, and he's 27 years old. His draft position is basically the only reason he'd be added and called up this year.

 

I basically agree....am really surprised he is closing in AAA right now......and not one of the young guys they supposedly believe in.

[DJL44]

Adds: Mitch Garver, Stuart Turner, Daniel Palka, Fernando Romero, Lewis Thorpe, Felix Jorge

 

Possible: Jason Wheeler, Zack Jones

[bluechipper]

 

Wimmers wasn't protected last year, and he's a former number 1 who appears to be near MLB ready in the pen, and would be an easy addition for a team.  I'm not sure if his upside has dropped to low-leverage reliever, but I would think he'd be adequate in that role making a waiver claim more palatable for a team that still harbors hope for his former upside.  I don't think the Twins protect him, I'm not even saying I'd protect him, but he'd interest me if I'm another team.

Yorman Landa, Tonkin, DSan, and Pat Dean are all on the 40 man and also on my watch list.  I'd consider exposing any or all of these players come the end of the year.  

Why would you consider adding Wimmers and dropping Tonkin? Tonkin has an 11.2 K/9 this year and he had a 2.65 ERA with a 9.7 K/9 in his time at AAA. Wimmers has a K/9 around 7 and an ERA around 4 in AAA.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Good find. I assumed he hit his 90. I can't imagine playoffs count towards service (cause they don't in the big leagues). I'd like to say the Twins planned it that way, but they lacked the forward thinking with Polanco by playing him the DSL before the GCL, so he hit 90 days and won't qualify for a fourth option.

 

Thorpe could qualify for a 4th without being added this year, as far as I could tell.

Thanks. I was thinking, if he hit 90 days in 2014, and he wasn't added to the 40-man and optioned until the 2017-2018 offseason, he would finish 2020 with 5 "full" pro seasons (2014, 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2020) and thus not get a 4th option year in 2021.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Good call on the incentives for Thorpe with an MLB salary.

 

He started throwing a few weeks ago. Is there a precedent of a guy not appearing in games until basically 10 months after starting to throw (next May)?

 

The part about him only pitching in A ball is kind of my point. But if you take him in a rule 5 that is part of the requirement. So I don't see how the A ball to MLB gap is an excuse to ease him along.

Maybe I wasn't clear. He could appear in games yet this year, but it still would not be hard to DL him at some point next year.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Wimmers wasn't protected last year, and he's a former number 1 who appears to be near MLB ready in the pen, and would be an easy addition for a team.  I'm not sure if his upside has dropped to low-leverage reliever, but I would think he'd be adequate in that role making a waiver claim more palatable for a team that still harbors hope for his former upside.  I don't think the Twins protect him, I'm not even saying I'd protect him, but he'd interest me if I'm another team.

Yorman Landa, Tonkin, DSan, and Pat Dean are all on the 40 man and also on my watch list.  I'd consider exposing any or all of these players come the end of the year.  

 

Like Wheeler, I would call up Wimmers in August or September and just give him an opportunity to show something. If it looks like they can be big league help going forward, keep them on the 40 man. If not, take them back off.

 

Yorman Landa isn't going anywhere (in terms of the 40 man roster)... He throws 100. He should be safe.

[Seth Stohs]

 

I basically agree....am really surprised he is closing in AAA right now......and not one of the young guys they supposedly believe in.

 

I don't know if they really have a closer designated. I think they have certain guys that are available on certain days, and maybe more save opportunities have come to him. Chargois still gets plenty of late inning time too.

[DocBauer]

I pretty much agree with the original list as well. I think Garver is also a must. And I'd really like to keep Granite. He could be a solid 4th OF and potentially a starting LF and quality leadoff candidate.

 

I just don't see Thorpe being taken based on health, recovery and limited level advancement.

 

No to Harrison at this point.

 

Also agree on Wimmer and Wheeler getting some time the second half to see what we have in them. Wimmer is doing surprisingly well at AAA but he doest scream draft steal at this point.

[DJL44]

Granite would not get selected. If selected he would likely be returned.

[Jham]

 

Why would you consider adding Wimmers and dropping Tonkin? Tonkin has an 11.2 K/9 this year and he had a 2.65 ERA with a 9.7 K/9 in his time at AAA. Wimmers has a K/9 around 7 and an ERA around 4 in AAA.

I didn't realize I could only keep one...  I mentioned that if I was another team, I'd consider taking a flyer on Wimmers.  I leaned against it for the Twins.  Tonkin has had a rocky beginning to his MLB career.  I do not care to look when he'd be arb eligible, but it seems like he's had some significant service time.  Others have questioned the leverage of Tonkin's appearances this year.  If he keeps performing like this, he's a lock for the 25 man, let alone the 40 man.  If he Casey Fien's his way down the stretch, I'm not sure the Twins have much more patience.  

[drivlikejehu]

Tonkin has a career ERA of 3.61. Not a particularly rough start by Twins' standards.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Like Wheeler, I would call up Wimmers in August or September and just give him an opportunity to show something. If it looks like they can be big league help going forward, keep them on the 40 man. If not, take them back off.

 

Winners can be a minor league free agent this winter, right? So it might make some sense to look at him.

 

For other guys, it is a bit different calculation. If you add them to the 40-man, in order to remove them they have to go on waivers and can be claimed by any other team with an open 40-man spot. But if you don't add them, and they are not yet eligible for minor league free agency, they will still remain in your org unless another team selects them in Rule 5.

 

For Wheeler, if he would be on the edge of the 40-man bubble anyway, it might be easier to keep him in the org for 2017 by not adding him this year.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Winners can be a minor league free agent this winter, right? So it might make some sense to look at him.

For other guys, it is a bit different calculation. If you add them to the 40-man, in order to remove them they have to go on waivers and can be claimed by any other team with an open 40-man spot. But if you don't add them, and they are not yet eligible for minor league free agency, they will still remain in your org unless another team selects them in Rule 5.

For Wheeler, if he would be on the edge of the 40-man bubble anyway, it might be easier to keep him in the org for 2017 by not adding him this year.

 

Correct... Signed in 2010, he can be a 6-year- minor league free agent. 

 

Fair point on Wheeler. 

[Mr. Brooks]

I didn't realize I could only keep one... I mentioned that if I was another team, I'd consider taking a flyer on Wimmers. I leaned against it for the Twins. Tonkin has had a rocky beginning to his MLB career. I do not care to look when he'd be arb eligible, but it seems like he's had some significant service time. Others have questioned the leverage of Tonkin's appearances this year. If he keeps performing like this, he's a lock for the 25 man, let alone the 40 man. If he Casey Fien's his way down the stretch, I'm not sure the Twins have much more patience.

Tonkin has just a hair over 1 year of service time.

He's under team control at least through the 2020 season.

He will be a borderline super 2 after next season.

[Jham]

 

Tonkin has just a hair over 1 year of service time.
He's under team control at least through the 2020 season.
He will be a borderline super 2 after next season.

So yeah, assuming no injury or pass through waivers, he's likely a super 2 with arbitration eligibility in 2018.  I would guess he's substantially better than Wimmers now, but will he be better than Shaggy, Reed, and Burdi such that we would rather have him than a player with the flexibility of 3 option years?  A lot of times you want that last reliever to be able to go up and down. I don't know if Pressley's got options, but I think Tonkin will have to demonstrate that he's an actual asset to the pen and not just a guy out there.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Pressly has an option remaining.

 

Tonkin won't be a super two unless he clear waivers and gets outrighted at some point. He is on track to finish this year with 2 years and 5 days service time, well short of the commonly cited 2 year ~120 day super two threshold; would then be a first time arb eligible after 2017 with 3 years service, and free agent after 2020 with 6 years service.

[Mr. Brooks]

Ok I misunderstood Tonkin's service time.

I took bbrefs 1.005 as a running tally, didn't realize that was entering the season.

So yes, he will not be a super 2.

[shs_59]

Removals:  Suzuki (FA) , Jepsen (FA) , one of Niel Ramirez and or Buddy Boshers, 1 of Robbie Grossman or Eduardo Nunez (trade) , and likely Alex Meyer or for sure Fernando Abad (if not)

 

If Ervin Santana gets traded .....that would open up about 6 spots.  My additions:

 

Fernando Romero, Trevor Hildenberger, Daniel Palka, Engelb Vielma, Stu Turner or Mitch Garver, and a tough call for the last between Granite, Reed, Burdi , Stewart, Jay or Gonsalves..... but i'll go with Reed.

The Twins already have : Melotakis, Landa, Randy Rosario, A.B. Walker all on the 40-man...

if you're Byung - Ho Park , Kennys Vargas, and A.B. Walker you 3 SHOULD be fighting for 2 - 40 Man roster spots!  (one might get traded/ cutt)

thank you

(Burdi ain't going anywhere)

 

 

[TKGuy]

I agree with the locks, Palka, Jorge, Romero and if keep both catchers, Garver and Turner, having just Centeno on the roster is not ideal. Of the ML 25 man now, I don't see Suzuki, Santana, Plouffe, And Abad back. I am hoping we can just buy out Nolasco and move on, a la John Danks

[old nurse]

 

I agree with the locks, Palka, Jorge, Romero and if keep both catchers, Garver and Turner, having just Centeno on the roster is not ideal. Of the ML 25 man now, I don't see Suzuki, Santana, Plouffe, And Abad back. I am hoping we can just buy out Nolasco and move on, a la John Danks

Depends on what kind of numbers you want to look at. Danks had a much higher ERA than Nolasco does. 246 pitchers so far have started a game so far this year in the majors.   By ERA, 87 of them have fared worse than Nolasco.  By SIERRA, there are 137 worse. By fWAR, 196 of them have fared worse than Nolasco.  That is why they don't just release him. He is not bad enough to do that. As it is, they still have had worse production from the 5th starter position.  There is still some value there. More if someone looks at WAR and FIP and not LOB%. If Dean/Milone had pitched better then the team has to consider their options.

 

 

Edited July 10, 2016 by old nurse

[AZTwin]

I'm flabbergasted that people don't have Vielma as a lock. There's no doubt he would stick for a year. His bat is okay... But his glove is MLB ready. He will be in the majors by this time next year if not earlier

[drivlikejehu]

Vielma still can't really hit, and glove-only guys are limited in value . . . John McDonald hung around forever as an inexpensive journeyman, for instance, but those guys aren't in high demand.

[Rosterman]

If you see Vielma as a bonafide prospect, then you look at Dozier vs. Polanco and make a trade decision there.But if keeping BOTH Polanco and Dizoer, Vielma will egt lost in the shuffle and stands to be passed by any number of other players in the system. It's what makes a general manager's job tough. Who to keep and who to pass. Vielma is one of those guys that if you aren't going to keep him, does he get you a better return when packaged, say, with a veteran and salary you wish to rid yourself of.

[nicksaviking]

I'm flabbergasted that people don't have Vielma as a lock. There's no doubt he would stick for a year. His bat is okay... But his glove is MLB ready. He will be in the majors by this time next year if not earlier

The Twins are currently flush with middle infielders who can hit, why would the put one on the 25 who can't?

 

Defense is secondary to offense for this club, and in this situation, I completely agree. No need to intentionally make a black hole where one isn't currently present.

 

It seems everyone wants a defensive first SS, yet when the team gets one, the leash is about ten games before the complaining starts; see Florimon and Punto.

[Thrylos]

Hopefully, between now and early November (the deadline to add players to protect them from the 40-man draft,) lots would have been changed for the Twins as far as trades and player personnel goes.

 

Way too early to tell.

 

It's like asking what model 2020 car you'd like to buy.

[ashbury]

It seems everyone wants a defensive first SS

Simple. A defense first SS who then turns out to mash will be a hell of a player, because, well, imagine how good that defense of his must be.

[AZTwin]

 

The Twins are currently flush with middle infielders who can hit, why would the put one on the 25 who can't?

Defense is secondary to offense for this club, and in this situation, I completely agree. No need to intentionally make a black hole where one isn't currently present.

It seems everyone wants a defensive first SS, yet when the team gets one, the leash is about ten games before the complaining starts; see Florimon and Punto.

 

If you see Vielma as a bonafide prospect, then you look at Dozier vs. Polanco and make a trade decision there.But if keeping BOTH Polanco and Dizoer, Vielma will egt lost in the shuffle and stands to be passed by any number of other players in the system. It's what makes a general manager's job tough. Who to keep and who to pass. Vielma is one of those guys that if you aren't going to keep him, does he get you a better return when packaged, say, with a veteran and salary you wish to rid yourself of.

In my opinion, Dozier and Polanco is exclusive from the Vielma decision.   Both are 2B.  Polanco could potentially play 3B too but he is a 2B.   Vielma is a SS prospect.  And I wouldn't pigeonhole him as a defensive player.  He can hit.  22 y/o and .280 in AA.  Thats plenty.  He isn't going to hit for power, thats not the type of guy he is, but there is no doubt in my mind he could hit .240- .250 and play good defense in the majors right now.   That has organizational depth value and no doubt he could be stashed on a team for a year.  Assuming Gordon progresses as we think he will, I think Vielma will be a necessary depth player and have great trade value when the time comes to package.   And I wouldn't to lose Vielma before we see more with Gordon's development.

[Rosterman]

The Twins need to look at bubble guys this September: Harrison, Wheeler and Wimmers come to mind.

 

Happily, they don't need to add Gonsalves, Stewart, burdi, Reed and such (but next year maybe).

 

They have to move some guys like Thiorpe to the AAA roster, I think, to avoid the minor league end of the draft, which could be devastating to the Twins in some areas.

 

Sadly, the Twins were forced, for some reason, to add Melotakis, Landa, Rosario, Walker. Now you can't remove them without sending them thru waivers and having another team give them a 40-man. Yet I don't see any of the four contributing greatly to the Twins in 2017 except as a callup, and not until 2018 seeing them on the 25-man roster at best. And I would argue that the the Twins COULD remove Walker and Rosario, as they are being passed by other prospects. Yet both could be tempting grabs for teams with less prospects in thir own system that need protection.

 

Hapily, Palka is the closest to needing to stick at the major league level. The Twins are sadly stuck with Walker still on the 40-man. That's where the gamble sometimes backfires. You carry guys for a couple of years and hope hope hope they are major league players.

 

The Twins also need to add Jones.

[nater79a]

Agree with others on risking Boshers. But with his spot, the 7th guy I would grab is Aaron Slegers. I'm probably in the minority on that but I think he has a chance to be solid.