Arcia Traded to the Rays

[mickeymental]

just for fun: mr. arcia is 0-for-14 with seven strikeouts and three walks over his last five games.

[ashbury]

At this point I am more concerned with the process than results.

 

Bingo.

I think the "process" in this case goes back months, if not years, further.

 

You construct your 40-man roster during the off-season. While changes to this roster are inevitable once the season starts, by around Opening Day it represents your best guess as to how you're going to get through your season, as it specifies the players you can place on your 25-man Active Roster.

 

Some guys on the 40-man are veterans, about whom you have some established track record to go on.

 

Some guys are untested rookies who have been recently added to the 40-man, and they may or may not be ready. If they prove unready, they have 3 years of options to send them back to AAA or wherever, for more seasoning. (A few such guys are always unready, and are being protected from Rule-5.)

 

It's the unproven guys, whose 3 options have been consumed, that require the talent assessment staff to make a decision: are they unproven but capable, or are they washouts? Either way, if you have one of them on your 40-man, you are more or less committing to having them on the Active Roster, because of the difficulty in demoting them without losing them. And if they're active, what will be their role to extract maximum value? If that question's a real poser, as in the case of Arcia, it's time to re-think his being on the 40-man. Nobody wants dead weight on the 25-man.

 

It seems to me that the Twins have had more than their share of 40-man problems in recent years from an accumulation of players who were out of options. Once a guy is out of options for the coming season, his trade value plummets unless he has established himself; other teams will have the same troubles you will, if they acquire him. Of course, whatever little trade value remains, vanishes in-season. The Twins, unfortunately, just seem to go with the flow, hoping like Mister Micawber that Something Will Turn Up, rather than be proactive in their decision making.

 

So, going back months to the 2015-16 off-season, the decision to keep Arcia needed to mean a commitment to playing him. The unexpected acquisition of Park likely should have triggered a re-evaluation on Arcia and probably an attempt to trade him for whatever they could get. (Or else, a cold-eyed assessment that Park might benefit from some months at AAA, salary be damned.)

 

But going back an extra 12 months, the problem was not being able to establish Arcia while he still had any minor league options remaining. His injury during 2015 was bad luck in that regard. But Arcia had the two previous seasons under Bruno's tutelage to blossom, and perhaps sharper talent evaluation could have identified Arcia as the right guy to trade while he still had significant value.

[h2oface]

just for fun: mr. arcia is 0-for-14 with seven strikeouts and three walks over his last five games.

Whoops.... there it is.

[jimmer]

 

just for fun: mr. arcia is 0-for-14 with seven strikeouts and three walks over his last five games.

I thought Arcia updates weren't supposed to be posted here any more per moderator warning on this thread.

 

'If you want to continue discussions about this move, do so here (there was a hyper-link when originally posted by the moderator, but it falls in the 'other baseball' forum titled, I believe, 'Tracking Arcia'). If all you want to do is post Arcia updates, do so in this new thread started to track Arcia. If you continue to post updates here, they will either be deleted or moved ... depending on my mood.'

[tobi0040]

That would be pretty hard to work with. You would have Arcia/Park, a BU Catcher and one other bench player to cover BU for the rest of the position players. I think the the roster construction criticism has been justified and this platoon would ensure we continued bad roster management practices. It would also be the end of Robie Grossman. He is not an all-star but he is not a liability in the OF, at least not to Arcia's degree, and he does not give away AB like Arcia does. Of course, they could try to get by with one less BP arm but the starters are going to have to be more reliable for that to be feasible.

The other guy is basically a bench bat that can play RF, LF, and 1b.

 

I don't see the big issue. Especially since the two difficult positions to cover are CF and SS. You have Escobar and Nunez (and probably Dozier) at SS and literally four guys with CF experience (buxton, Kepler, Rosario, and Escobar).

 

But day to day who is going to back up which position should not really be a concern on a 50 win team.

[AlwaysinModeration]

just for fun: mr. arcia is 0-for-14 with seven strikeouts and three walks over his last five games.

Can we all agree that this is outrageous?

[CampQ]

Thought experiment: what does the front office do if both Arcia and Vargas mash for a year or two, and you have Sano coming up? You still can't carry all three given Joe. Arcia was likely always the odd man out.

[bird]

 

I think the "process" in this case goes back months, if not years, further.

 

You construct your 40-man roster during the off-season. While changes to this roster are inevitable once the season starts, by around Opening Day it represents your best guess as to how you're going to get through your season, as it specifies the players you can place on your 25-man Active Roster.

 

Some guys on the 40-man are veterans, about whom you have some established track record to go on.

 

Some guys are untested rookies who have been recently added to the 40-man, and they may or may not be ready. If they prove unready, they have 3 years of options to send them back to AAA or wherever, for more seasoning. (A few such guys are always unready, and are being protected from Rule-5.)

 

It's the unproven guys, whose 3 options have been consumed, that require the talent assessment staff to make a decision: are they unproven but capable, or are they washouts? Either way, if you have one of them on your 40-man, you are more or less committing to having them on the Active Roster, because of the difficulty in demoting them without losing them. And if they're active, what will be their role to extract maximum value? If that question's a real poser, as in the case of Arcia, it's time to re-think his being on the 40-man. Nobody wants dead weight on the 25-man.

 

It seems to me that the Twins have had more than their share of 40-man problems in recent years from an accumulation of players who were out of options. Once a guy is out of options for the coming season, his trade value plummets unless he has established himself; other teams will have the same troubles you will, if they acquire him. Of course, whatever little trade value remains, vanishes in-season. The Twins, unfortunately, just seem to go with the flow, hoping like Mister Micawber that Something Will Turn Up, rather than be proactive in their decision making.

 

So, going back months to the 2015-16 off-season, the decision to keep Arcia needed to mean a commitment to playing him. The unexpected acquisition of Park likely should have triggered a re-evaluation on Arcia and probably an attempt to trade him for whatever they could get. (Or else, a cold-eyed assessment that Park might benefit from some months at AAA, salary be damned.)

 

But going back an extra 12 months, the problem was not being able to establish Arcia while he still had any minor league options remaining. His injury during 2015 was bad luck in that regard. But Arcia had the two previous seasons under Bruno's tutelage to blossom, and perhaps sharper talent evaluation could have identified Arcia as the right guy to trade while he still had significant value.

 

 

So clear, even I could follow this. Points to the need for a sell discipline, which I see as this club's most damaging weakness.

[Major League Ready]

There seems to be a general assumption here that our staff did not recognize that major league pitchers could exploit his swing mechanics or that they did not understand his plate discipline was horrible and he swung out of his shoes because he was obsessed with hitting the ball 600 feet.  We all saw it.  Helen Keller could have seen it.  So, I am pretty sure others teams recognized it.  Therefore, we were not going to get much for a player of this description unless we had traded him when he first arrived.  That would not have gone over too well here.  

 

I am pretty sure the talent evaluators for other teams identified his defensive weakness as well.  

 

Maybe they simply looked at their ML roster and the guys that will be here within a year and said we just can’t continue to give Arcia playing time because there are young players on the roster that need the playing time.  The acquisition of Grossman probably helped this along. They might also have determined that Palka would hit as many or more home runs, not give away Abs, and is significantly better defensively.   He should be here early next season.  

 

It’s really pretty simple.  His value was next to nothing once he struggled so mightily last season.  I wanted them to give him a better shot myself but I don’t understand the angst.  He had plenty of opportunity prior to this season.  This is the Joe Benson thread version 2.

[Major League Ready]

 

The other guy is basically a bench bat that can play RF, LF, and 1b.

I don't see the big issue. Especially since the two difficult positions to cover are CF and SS. You have Escobar and Nunez (and probably Dozier) at SS and literally four guys with CF experience (buxton, Kepler, Rosario, and Escobar).

But day to day who is going to back up which position should not really be a concern on a 50 win team.

I was simply thinking some of the better teams are big on versatility.  However, It is a different animal when you put it in the context of a 50 win team so you make a good point. 

[big dog]

Totally agree with the above sentiments- I do not regret losing Arcia (partly because don't we all like the new and improved Kennys Vargas?), but the process really looks like a train wreck to me.  One that is continuing to toss cars all around the track.

 

I won't post an update from last night's game because I don't want a spanking...but let's just say any other team that wants to try Ozzie might be getting a chance before too long.

[lukeduke1980]

 

Whoops.... there it is.

What will be interesting to see is if a different coaching staff can help him adjust and (quickly) get him out of a funk.

[bird]

If Ryan had acted earlier, I can imagine this conversation:

 

Dave Dombrowski: Hey Terry, tell me what you guys are thinking about that knucklehead Arcia. You gonna dump him like you did Ortiz? Heh heh heh heh heh heh heh....

 

Terry: Go ahead and laugh, Dumbo. I'll have you know that our Madagascar Area Scout still projects him to become the NEXT David Ortiz. Just crazier, which, um, we don't like here.

 

Dave: Isn't that the scout who pitched you guys Willie Banks and Levi Michael? Heh heh heh heh....

 

Terry: Yeah, and Michael Tonkin too, smart guy. And maybe you forgot, but Willie had a great career here for us. So, what does YOUR guy say about Arcia?

 

Dave: Glad you asked. My guy calls him Delmon Young Lite With A Slightly Better Disposition. 

 

Terry: Yeah, right. What does YOUR young whippersnapper know about scouting anyway? I doubt he'd fit in with our guys, I'll tell you that.

 

Dave: You're right, he's pretty average: Boegarts, Betts...should I go on? Heh heh heh heh...Anyway, we're willing to give you guys the benefit of the doubt and call Ortiz the Second Coming of Dustan Mohr. So, what do you need to get for him, Terry? Hell, you're already in deep doo doo with those influential Twins Daily experts. You need to make a trade they can really get excited about. So, make me an offer. I mean, why does it always have to be the other GM who starts the trade volley, Terry. C'mon, let's see you be a little proactive. Your fans will like that.

 

Ryan: Well, yeah, I should be. Don't say anything, but I'm beginning to think Jim Pohlad is looking past the players and thinking I'm maybe to blame for some of this. Alright, I'm making you an offer, but I'm warning you, I'm going to be pretty firm about it because there's a big swing between that Ortiz fella and Delmon, especially personality-wise. So, give me a list of guys to chose from that are most like Bobby Kielty.

 

And this, my friends, is how Terry might have gotten more for Arcia. The End.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Just an FYI

 

Robbie Grossman is worse than Miguel Sano in defensive runs saved in the outfield

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=of&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=250&type=1&season=2016&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=10,d&page=4_30

[jimmer]

 

Just an FYI

Robbie Grossman is worse than Miguel Sano in defensive runs saved in the outfield

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=of&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=250&type=1&season=2016&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=10,d&page=4_30

DRS is cumulative and Grossman has played more innings in LF than Sano in RF.  I have every confidence if Sano had as many innings in RF as Grossman does in LF, they would be tied.  Also, they play different positions so are compared against different groups of players.

 

The real take away from your post is that Grossman is pretty much equally as horrible in the OF as Sano is.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

DRS is cumulative and Grossman has played more innings in LF than Sano in RF.  I have every confidence if Sano had as many innings in RF as Grossman does in LF, they would be tied.

Cause for celebration?

 

 

The real take away from your post is that Grossman is pretty much equally as horrible in the OF as Sano is.

No, because I don't believe that. However, if someone is going to make a really questionable claim to support their viewpoint, it might be worthwhile to check that claim against facts first. I get it, we all do it occasionally, and it's just a discussion board so not a big deal either way.

[jimmer]

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=of&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=300&type=1&season=2016&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=10,d&page=4_30

 

106 OF have played 300 or more innings in the OF this year.  Sano is 99th in DRS (-8) even though he only has 313 innings in the field, Grossman (at -9 DRS) is tied with one other for 100th.  Their range is ranked similarly to others at their position.  Their UZRs are about the same.

 

The bottom 4 players (all at -11),  in the bottom all have more than 400 innings in the field, 3 have more than 500 innings in the field, 1 has almost 700.  Both of our guys, if they had 500 or more innings played in the OF, would likely sit in the bottom two spots.  Neither should be playing in the OF and thank goodness, one likely won't ever do so again.

 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=of&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=300&type=1&season=2016&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=10,d&page=4_30

 

106 OF have played 300 or more innings in the OF this year.  Sano is 99th in DRS (-8) even though he only has 313 innings in the field, Grossman (at -9 DRS) is tied with one other for 100th.  Their range is ranked similarly to others at their position.  Their UZRs are about the same.

 

The bottom 4 players (all at -11),  in the bottom all have more than 400 innings in the field, 3 have more than 500 innings in the field, 1 has almost 700.  Both of our guys, if they had 500 or more innings played in the OF, would likely sit in the bottom two spots.  Neither should be playing in the OF and thank goodness, one likely won't ever do so again.

And my sample was 250 innings in order to have Arcia in the set. I admit Arcia is right down with those other two and Grossman is a better fit for this team, and Arcia more likely than not will never harness his talent like he could. But like the others said, it's as much about process etc as it is about Arcia himself.

[LaBombo]

At first blush Grossman looked like a sort of poor man's John Cangelosi to me. Cangelosi's offensive skill set (switch hitter, good speed, very good on base skills) said 'center field', but his glove whispered 'not so fast'.

 

Cangieman played all three OF positions, and while he wouldn't kill you with 15 days in center, he would cost a few runs over an extended period there. All in all, he was a pretty good 4th OF who played til he was 35, ancient for a career backup OF.

 

But Grossman just doesn't have the glove or the speed you'd like to see in a 4th OF. At this point he profiles a bit like a utility middle infielder who is such a liability at short that he really should be the second option off the bench there.

 

Back when teams used to squeak by with only 5 relievers and the bench was six deep even with a DH-only guy, you could afford to carry a niche player like that. With 12 pitchers, there's only one outfield-only reserve, and that guy better be able to play center.

 

That brings me to my concern about Grossman for next year, which is that if he maintains his offensive output enough for the Twins to bring him back, it increases the likelihood that the Twins will bring back Dantana because of his ability to back up center.

 

And while it's true that Rosario could play center if need be, I'm not sure that at this point he's a significantly better bet to pull his weight offensively than Danny S.

 

Is there a Jim Edmonds School of Uncanny Fly Ball Reads we can send Kepler to in the offseason in case he needs to slide over to CF for a 10 games each year?

[Brock Beauchamp]

Honestly, I don't really care if the fourth outfielder can play a good centerfield.

 

Rosario is an adequate centerfielder. Kepler won't kill you out there. Buxton is excellent.

 

At that point, does it matter whether your fourth guy is a defensive specialist?

[LaBombo]

 

Honestly, I don't really care if the fourth outfielder can play a good centerfield.

 

Rosario is an adequate centerfielder. Kepler won't kill you out there. Buxton is excellent.

 

At that point, does it matter whether your fourth guy is a defensive specialist?

On a list of my top 10 concerns about the shipwreck that is the current Twins, backup CF would rank about 33rd or so, were it not for the facts that a) Buxton could easily be hurt or lost at the plate for a long stretch, b} Rosario and his 43 OPS+ can't really be counted on for much of anything so far except futility at the plate, and c) the other guy who can back up Buxton is an even worse hitter than Rosario.

 

I don't believe for a minute that lack of a viable CF backup is going to hurt the Twins in a way that will matter this year or next, other than that it will probably help make it easier for the Twin to justify continuing to use a roster spot on a Danny Santana or the like instead of a ballplayer who might contribute.

[Monkeypaws]

I'm kind of glad to see Vargas take the spot of power bench bat. With Park out, he makes sense as a DH backup 1b. Oswaldo didn't really have a future in ths Twins outfield.

[Mike Sixel]

For those interested, there are words from TB and Arcia here:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/sunday-notes-rangers-barnette-orioles-kim-oswaldo-arcia-more/

 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

For those interested, there are words from TB and Arcia here:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/sunday-notes-rangers-barnette-orioles-kim-oswaldo-arcia-more/

Trying... Not... To laugh...

 

“Before I came here, I tried to pull the ball too much,” admitted Arcia. “I would maybe over-swing a little bit, swing too hard. When I got here, the hitting coach told me to try to use the whole field. He said to just try to put it in play, because with my strength the ball is going to go.”

 

Damn those Twins for never letting players go oppo and forcing players to fit their pull-happy hitting ethos.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Trying... Not... To laugh...

 

“Before I came here, I tried to pull the ball too much,” admitted Arcia. “I would maybe over-swing a little bit, swing too hard. When I got here, the hitting coach told me to try to use the whole field. He said to just try to put it in play, because with my strength the ball is going to go.”

 

Damn those Twins for never letting players go oppo and forcing players to fit their pull-happy hitting ethos.

 

Ya, that part was interesting, to say the least......just, hmmmm. No idea, head scratching, are we reading about the Twins here, kind of comment.......

[tobi0040]

Ya, that part was interesting, to say the least......just, hmmmm. No idea, head scratching, are we reading about the Twins here, kind of comment.......

And the results have been incredible with this newfound approach.

 

OPS + with Twins this year 75

 

OPS + with Rays this year 74

 

At least when Ortiz dogged the Twins he had numbers to back it up.

[HitInAPinch]

On is day in history, Oswaldo Arcia is still in Tampa Bay....

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Damn those Twins for never letting players go oppo and forcing players to fit their pull-happy hitting ethos.

Well, the Twins did get a new hitting coach to coincide with Arcia's promotion to the majors in 2013, and have produced some notable pull/power/strikeout hitters since then, like Dozier.  It wouldn't be crazy to suggest the modern Twins perhaps focused too much on harnessing Arcia's pull power, to the detriment of his overall hitting.  But I am far from an expert in such matters, and it's far too early to draw any conclusions about his post-Twins production.