Is this a SSS, or reality?

[bluechipper]

 

Yes, what about Dozier? Polanco? ? I fear his defense will mitigate the offensive upgrade. But by stubbornly leaving Dozier in the top of the lineup, Molitor is telling me that he can't see the forest for the trees, I don't believe in yo yoing guys up and down after two good/bad days. But it's been months of this. The Plouffe/Sano Saga is a different matter. This is the equivalent of the Timberwolves having 3 NBA competent centers, and signing Townes. And keeping all 4 because they all can rebound! SOMEONE has to go, you can't efficiently play with 4 centers. It's not a comment on the other three centers, it's math. (Highly frowned on, at TD!)

I actually think Polanco might be an upgrade or at least a wash defensively when compared to Dozier. Brian's defense is on the decline, at least that's what I think, and I think last year's numbers may back that up.

[Eris]

Even though this is a small sample size, you can judge whether players are taking good at bats or are just unlucky.  Rosario, Santana and Escobar swing at the most pitches outside the strike zone (O-swing, fangraphs) at (42.3, 33.9, and 33.5% respectively).  At least Santana and Escobar have a high contact percent on pitches inside the strike zone at 97 and 94% respectively.  Rosario's z-contact % is 69% (the worst on the team.  From my perspective Rosario should be sent down as he is taking very poor at bats.  Sometimes players are unlucky over a short period of time, but management should insist they take quality at bats.  The problem that the Twins have is that Rosario is currently the best defensive outfielder on the MLB roster.  

 

I would be inclined to bring Kepler up and actually play him.  Kepler's problem appears to be that he was not aggressive enough (z-swing of 40%)  at the plate and took to many strikes.  The other option the Twins would have is to call-up Darin Mastroianni as the back-up outfielder and play Arcia everyday.  (This option creates 40 man roster logistical issues and also a poor outfield defense with Arcia, Santana and Sano).  But either way, Rosario should be sent down.

[Reider]

 

Yes, what about Dozier? Polanco? ? I fear his defense will mitigate the offensive upgrade. But by stubbornly leaving Dozier in the top of the lineup, Molitor is telling me that he can't see the forest for the trees, I don't believe in yo yoing guys up and down after two good/bad days. But it's been months of this. The Plouffe/Sano Saga is a different matter. This is the equivalent of the Timberwolves having 3 NBA competent centers, and signing Townes. And keeping all 4 because they all can rebound! SOMEONE has to go, you can't efficiently play with 4 centers. It's not a comment on the other three centers, it's math. (Highly frowned on, at TD!)

Okay, I see what you are saying about Dozier. It wouldn't be the end of the world if they moved him down to the bottom half of the line up, while he works on things.

[Jham]

 

How would anyone measure and evaluate that?

Arcia clearly is passionate, unfortunately he has too often been villainized and likely in no small part because of his temperment. Sano too appears to be an emotional and vocal player as do Santana and Rosario.

If we are OK with the emotional leaders being non-American, I think there is plenty of fire here to work with.

Classic metric-fallacy.  If we don't have a metric for it, it doesn't exist.  I've made no secret that Arcia is one of my favorite players for that reason.  Sano is playing himself back into shape, but his off-season eating gives pause as to how focused he has been on improving.  Rosario is fiery, Fien as well, Glen when he's in there.  I don't doubt the leadership potential of some of the young kids, I doubt whether those young kids are getting the right kind of direction from the veterans.  I guess you can see Arcia or Sano getting into the vets' faces or even other young players', earning their respect, and getting them to fall in line.  I don't.  I'm worried that they're learning to accept losing, and worse, to expect it.

So no, it has nothing to do with nationality, everything to do with experience and age.

[ashbury]

Gaetti and Puckett were two of the toughest competitors I've ever seen.  Hrbek too at least between the lines.  Who on this team can bring the fire of a Gaetti or Puckett?

Gaetti was the author of a memorable quote, directed toward himself, after he made a costly error during that '84 pennant chase: "it's hard to field the ball when you have both hands around your throat."

[USAFChief]

 

Gaetti was the author of a memorable quote, directed toward himself, after he made a costly error during that '84 pennant chase: "it's hard to field the ball when you have both hands around your throat."

I hate to be that guy...but wasn't it "It's hard to throw with both hands around your neck"?

[Platoon]

There is a lot of criticism her about how Ryan has done a poor job constructing this roster, a valid point to be sure, but very little about how Molitor and his staff has handled the roster. Why is that?  Molitor hasn't done a good job constructing a lineup (Dozier HAS to move down to the 7 or 8 slot until he starts to hit whether it hurts his feelings or not, most likely with Mauer going up to #2), and he hasn't handled the younger players very well. Moreover, Bruno isn't getting through to at least some of these guys, like Rosario, Murphy and Dozier, and his advice to Mauer last year was flawed. This is really a failure at multiple levels, the FO for roster construction, on field management for misusing what talent they were given and not improving performance levels, and the players for lack of execution. This isn't all Ryan's fault.  He's done a poor jog, but you don't get to 7-17 if the manager and coaches are doing their job, no matter what the talent level is. 

 

I tend to be a incremental progress guy.  Here, that would mean sticking with marginal vets like Nolasco, Fien, Suzuki,  and yes Dozier, Gibson and Plouffe, who are "nice" players as second level contributors on a good team but not good enough to be primary contributors the way they are asked to be here. Incremental progress is not the answer to this team.

 

You have to deal with reality here.  First, this team con't contend as constructed. It's not good enough or balanced enough.  Second, Ryan is not going to get fired.   Third, Molitor is a local favorite and the team overachieved last year so he will get this season and possibly the next before he loses his job regardless of whether he's a decent manager or not, much less a good one. I'm from Minnesota but I now live in LA.  If Molitor performed here like he is there for either the Dodgers or Angels, he would be gone by the end of May if the team didn't perform a whole lot better.  I know Minnesota is a small market team but that doesn't mean you should have to put up with mediocrity.  

 

Soooo, what's the answer?  I don't think there is a good one. Identifying problems is easy, identifying solutions is where you add value. If it were up to me, I'd start by giving Polanco every day at bats at second and SS to help determine if Dozier is trade bait in June. Two of the 3 young starters stay up and Gibson goes to the bullpen when he comes off the DL (or stays on the DL for awhile), the third young stater goes back to AAA as depth. Sano stays in the OF for now when Plouffe comes back so Plouffe can build value and Arcia/Rosario are in a fight to the death for the LF spot. By around June 15, you start moving players. Nolasco goes and so does one of Dozier or Plouffe if Polanco hits. Fien and Abad get traded; if no one wants Fien he gets released. Murphy either hits or he's a Red Wing. It doesn't really matter who you put in his slot, it can't get any worse. You trade Hughes or Santana if you get a big haul, otherwise they stay, and Duffy and either Berrios or Meyer pitches every 5th day. Once Chargois or Burdi is ready (or any other rekever for that matter), it's bye bye O'Rouke.  Milone is traded in the unlikely event that anyone wants him otherwise he gets DL'd when one of the MiLB relievers is ready. Buxton comes back mid-season and Santana either plays LF if he's still hitting or he goes to the 4th OF slot where he most likely belongs. Short answer - everybody is playing for their jobs in the next 30-45 days. If they don't perform, they're gone. No more scholarships. For anybody. 

 

Does this blueprint condemn the Twins to a mediocre at best season?  Probably. What's being done now also condemns then to a mediocre or worse season this year, and probably next year too. Time to give this year up and make the changes that might help down the road.

 

I don't think you are far off. As for winning? You can't if you keep this roster, and you won't if you do yours. The good news is yours gives a chance, this one doesn't. The terrible news, is there might be a few cosmetic changes, but it's going to be at about the same pace dinosaurs transformed themselves to fossil fuels!

[Thrylos]

 

I hate to be that guy...but wasn't it "It's hard to throw with both hands around your neck"?

 

Indeed

[stringer bell]

After today's loss the Twins are 11 below .500. They are close to being out of the race by the All-Star break unless they don't turn it around soon. The problem is ...........everything--pitching (short starts and bullpen), defense including poor fundamentals and the shortstop has not played as well defensively as he had in the past two years. Hitting all around with the exception of Mauer and three guys who started on the bench--Nuñez, Arcia and Santana.

 

The hitting with RISP has been brutal and all but two of their homers have been solos. There's also been some head-scratching strategy and roster-filling. Is it possible they can make this up? Sure. Likely? No.

[glunn]

It seems to me that the chances of making the post-season this year are very small, and that the best approach would be to focus on player development. It seems to me that this season is a lost cause, but I do see the potential for building a strong core that could compete for several years.

 

I see hope for future years based on the potentially high ceilings of some of the younger players. It seems to me that if the Twins could develop two or three all-star level players and surround them with four of five above average players then they would compete.

 

Based on the eye test, I see Sano as a potential all star 3B -- not a gold glover but the best hitter at his position and a solid fielder.

 

If  Buxton can overcome his hitting difficulties then he could become an all star CF.

 

If Berrios works out, I think that he could make some all star games.

 

In my opinion, these 3 players have decent shots at becoming all-stars. 

 

I also think that there are other young players who could become significantly above average if they work hard enough, including Arcia, Rosario, Kepler, Polanco, Duffey, May, and Mayer.

 

Further down in the system the Twins have Gonsalves, Chargois, Burdi and other players who seem to have high ceilings.

 

I think that the focus should be on developing these prospects while trying to build trade value for players whose ceilings are lower, such as Park, Plouffe, and Dozier.

 

I also think that catcher is a critical position and that the Twins need to give Murphy a lot more at bats to see what he can do if given regular playing time.  Hopefully Murphy can develop into a decent backup, and I also hoe that the Twins focus most of their trade efforts on picking up some catching prospects with high ceilings in the hope that one of them can come up next year. My sense is that it is difficult to compete without a very good catcher.

 

All of that said, I have learned to have little confidence in any such analysis, especially my own, and I will not be astounded if the Twins win (or lose) 20 games this month. 

 

[ashbury]

but wasn't it "It's hard to throw with both hands around your neck"?

Probably. I took the time to fact-check my quote, but made the mistake of doing it on the Internet.

 

http://www.picturequotes.com/its-hard-to-field-the-ball-when-you-have-both-hands-around-your-throat-quote-249107

[jokin]

 

It seems to me that the chances of making the post-season this year are very small, and that the best approach would be to focus on player development. It seems to me that this season is a lost cause, but I do see the potential for building a strong core that could compete for several years.

 

I see hope for future years based on the potentially high ceilings of some of the younger players. It seems to me that if the Twins could develop two or three all-star level players and surround them with four of five above average players then they would compete.

 

Based on the eye test, I see Sano as a potential all star 3B -- not a gold glover but the best hitter at his position and a solid fielder.

 

If  Buxton can overcome his hitting difficulties then he could become an all star CF.

 

If Berrios works out, I think that he could make some all star games.

 

In my opinion, these 3 players have decent shots at becoming all-stars. 

 

I also think that there are other young players who could become significantly above average if they work hard enough, including Arcia, Rosario, Kepler, Polanco, Duffey, May, and Mayer.

 

Further down in the system the Twins have Gonsalves, Chargois, Burdi and other players who seem to have high ceilings.

 

I think that the focus should be on developing these prospects while trying to build trade value for players whose ceilings are lower, such as Park, Plouffe, and Dozier.

 

 

There's a real opportunity to "clean house" come July...

 

add Nunez to the position player list... his value might never be higher than it is right now (not that he'd return much, but it would open up the utility spot for Polanco to get a better chance to play more frequently).

 

FWIW, Pat Reusse agrees, and suggests quite a few of the high-priced pitchers, plus Gibson could also be removed from the roster by the deadline, as well.

[adorduan]

 

There is a lot of criticism her about how Ryan has done a poor job constructing this roster, a valid point to be sure, but very little about how Molitor and his staff has handled the roster. Why is that?  Molitor hasn't done a good job constructing a lineup (Dozier HAS to move down to the 7 or 8 slot until he starts to hit whether it hurts his feelings or not, most likely with Mauer going up to #2), and he hasn't handled the younger players very well. Moreover, Bruno isn't getting through to at least some of these guys, like Rosario, Murphy and Dozier, and his advice to Mauer last year was flawed. This is really a failure at multiple levels, the FO for roster construction, on field management for misusing what talent they were given and not improving performance levels, and the players for lack of execution. This isn't all Ryan's fault.  He's done a poor jog, but you don't get to 7-17 if the manager and coaches are doing their job, no matter what the talent level is. 

 

I tend to be a incremental progress guy.  Here, that would mean sticking with marginal vets like Nolasco, Fien, Suzuki,  and yes Dozier, Gibson and Plouffe, who are "nice" players as second level contributors on a good team but not good enough to be primary contributors the way they are asked to be here. Incremental progress is not the answer to this team.

 

You have to deal with reality here.  First, this team con't contend as constructed. It's not good enough or balanced enough.  Second, Ryan is not going to get fired.   Third, Molitor is a local favorite and the team overachieved last year so he will get this season and possibly the next before he loses his job regardless of whether he's a decent manager or not, much less a good one. I'm from Minnesota but I now live in LA.  If Molitor performed here like he is there for either the Dodgers or Angels, he would be gone by the end of May if the team didn't perform a whole lot better.  I know Minnesota is a small market team but that doesn't mean you should have to put up with mediocrity.  

 

Soooo, what's the answer?  I don't think there is a good one. Identifying problems is easy, identifying solutions is where you add value. If it were up to me, I'd start by giving Polanco every day at bats at second and SS to help determine if Dozier is trade bait in June. Two of the 3 young starters stay up and Gibson goes to the bullpen when he comes off the DL (or stays on the DL for awhile), the third young stater goes back to AAA as depth. Sano stays in the OF for now when Plouffe comes back so Plouffe can build value and Arcia/Rosario are in a fight to the death for the LF spot. By around June 15, you start moving players. Nolasco goes and so does one of Dozier or Plouffe if Polanco hits. Fien and Abad get traded; if no one wants Fien he gets released. Murphy either hits or he's a Red Wing. It doesn't really matter who you put in his slot, it can't get any worse. You trade Hughes or Santana if you get a big haul, otherwise they stay, and Duffy and either Berrios or Meyer pitches every 5th day. Once Chargois or Burdi is ready (or any other rekever for that matter), it's bye bye O'Rouke.  Milone is traded in the unlikely event that anyone wants him otherwise he gets DL'd when one of the MiLB relievers is ready. Buxton comes back mid-season and Santana either plays LF if he's still hitting or he goes to the 4th OF slot where he most likely belongs. Short answer - everybody is playing for their jobs in the next 30-45 days. If they don't perform, they're gone. No more scholarships. For anybody. 

 

Does this blueprint condemn the Twins to a mediocre at best season?  Probably. What's being done now also condemns then to a mediocre or worse season this year, and probably next year too. Time to give this year up and make the changes that might help down the road. 

Why does Buxton get to come back mid season?? I thought you said no scholarships for ANYBODY?

[ThejacKmp]

 

I don't understand why the three young pitchers have to be culled to one. I'd roll with them all hoping the lumps they take this year pay off next year.

 

Santana is going to get his job back and even the most cynical view of this year supports that – you’ll have even worse luck trying to get impact free agents if they know you might just not play them no matter their results.

 

I see it as two spots. Milone is gone and isn’t coming back barring a lot of injuries and Ricky Nolasco is not long for this world, success or no success. In some ways, this is the best we could have hoped for with Ricky. He’s pitched well and the Twins aren’t doing well, so there’s no temptation to try to ride him. It may take another month to move him but I would be shocked if he was here by the time we get close to the deadline.

 

That leaves two spots for Meyer/Berrios/Duffey. That’s not the worst way to handle things, Meyer could use more time in the minors to build confidence with success.

[jokin]

 

Why does Buxton get to come back mid season?? I thought you said no scholarships for ANYBODY?

 

I think the only way Buxton comes back is catastrophic injury or huge improvement in approach at the plate (which I think are both possibilities).... but definitely, no scholarship, he's got serious work to do with the bat... frankly I'm a little stunned that the Twins developmental coaches haven't prepared him in how to best properly utilize his speed in conjunction with his hitting... and in having better pitch recognition and at-bat game plans.

[Tibs]

I'm not a fan of the phrase small sample size. In my opinion, too many baseball fans use the phrase SSS incorrectly or as a scapegoat. One month of play is not a small sample size. The stats from one month of play are useful information. However, one month is not enough information to make conclusions on a player's career or how they will perform for the rest of the year. It seems to me too many people view stats in the context of a year or a career instead of what the stats are showing right now.

 

 

[rghrbek]

 

After today's loss the Twins are 11 below .500. They are close to being out of the race by the All-Star break unless they don't turn it around soon.

 

I might go as far to say they are close to being out of the race in the next couple of weeks if they don't turn it around soon...

[Brock Beauchamp]

Given how badly the Twins stumbled out of the gate and how their rotation imploded so quickly - Meyer and Berrios are great to see in the long-term but will probably contribute to short-term losses - it makes sense to start exploring trades as early as the end of the month.

 

Plouffe, Suzuki, Nolasco, Nunez, Milone, and Jepsen are givens. Dozier, Hughes, Gibson, and Perkins are not givens but should be explored.

 

If the Twins are >10 games back in early June, I will be disappointed if at least 2-3 of those names aren't off the team by the end of July.

 

There's actually quite a bit of talent on that list. Ryan *should* be able to bring back quite a bit of talent if he offloads a few of those guys.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Plouffe, Suzuki, Nolasco, Nunez, Milone, and Jepsen are givens. Dozier, Hughes, Gibson, and Perkins are not givens but should be explored.

 

If the Twins are >10 games back in early June, I will be disappointed if at least 2-3 of those names aren't off the team by the end of July.

 

There's actually quite a bit of talent on that list. Ryan *should* be able to bring back quite a bit of talent if he offloads a few of those guys.

Some talent, perhaps, I don't know about "quite a bit", and I certainly don't know about getting that level of return for it in a fire-sale scenario.  Plouffe is a decent player, but we all saw the market for 3B this winter, it's far from clear he will garner any more in-season.

 

And the other guys on the list probably have even worse cases than that, due to health and performance concerns.

[Loosey]

I've said it before and I will say it again.  May of 2015, while fun at the time, is the worst thing that could have happened to this team as it relates to building the future of Twins.

[Loosey]

 

 

Some talent, perhaps, I don't know about "quite a bit", and I certainly don't know about getting that level of return for it in a fire-sale scenario.  Plouffe is a decent player, but we all saw the market for 3B this winter, it's far from clear he will garner any more in-season.

 

And the other guys on the list probably have even worse cases than that, due to health and performance concerns.

Unfortunately for Plouffe to garner any sort of return we would like as fans, I think a contending team will have to lose a 3rd baseman to a long-term injury. 

[markos]

 

Given how badly the Twins stumbled out of the gate and how their rotation imploded so quickly - Meyer and Berrios are great to see in the long-term but will probably contribute to short-term losses - it makes sense to start exploring trades as early as the end of the month.

 

Plouffe, Suzuki, Nolasco, Nunez, Milone, and Jepsen are givens. Dozier, Hughes, Gibson, and Perkins are not givens but should be explored.

 

If the Twins are >10 games back in early June, I will be disappointed if at least 2-3 of those names aren't off the team by the end of July.

 

There's actually quite a bit of talent on that list. Ryan *should* be able to bring back quite a bit of talent if he offloads a few of those guys.

What do you think about Abad? Frankly, he might be more valuable than any other name you listed (assuming he keeps this up) - teams always seem willing to overpay for relief help at the deadline. But he is still under team control for 2017 and would be useful next year. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Some talent, perhaps, I don't know about "quite a bit", and I certainly don't know about getting that level of return for it in a fire-sale scenario.  Plouffe is a decent player, but we all saw the market for 3B this winter, it's far from clear he will garner any more in-season.

 

And the other guys on the list probably have even worse cases than that, due to health and performance concerns.

Oh, individually the haul won't be that impressive but when combined, there should be a decent amount of talent coming back in return. No top-flight prospects but a smattering of solid upside guys.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

What do you think about Abad? Frankly, he might be more valuable than any other name you listed (assuming he keeps this up) - teams always seem willing to overpay for relief help at the deadline. But he is still under team control for 2017 and would be useful next year. 

I completely forgot about Abad. Toss him on the "definitely" list.

[Willihammer]

I'll make this easier- Mauer, Sano, and Berrios are off the table. Everyone else should be fair game.

[Platoon]

Some talent, perhaps, I don't know about "quite a bit", and I certainly don't know about getting that level of return for it in a fire-sale scenario.  Plouffe is a decent player, but we all saw the market for 3B this winter, it's far from clear he will garner any more in-season.

 

And the other guys on the list probably have even worse cases than that, due to health and performance concerns.

It all depends on who needs what, when. To some teams no value, and to another very nice hole fillers.

[nicksaviking]

 

Santana is going to get his job back and even the most cynical view of this year supports that – you’ll have even worse luck trying to get impact free agents if they know you might just not play them no matter their results.

 

 

If someone worries about promoting young guys out of fear of what hypothetical free agents might think of them a year later, they have no business running a team.

 

Plenty of teams demote, DFA or trade vets in favor of young players when their teams our out of it. It's the norm, not an exception.

[Brock Beauchamp]

If someone worries about promoting young guys out of fear of what hypothetical free agents might think of them a year later, they have no business running a team.

 

Plenty of teams demote, DFA or trade vets in favor of young players when their teams our out of it. It's the norm, not an exception.

That's true.. But Santana is, without doubt, one of the Twins' five best starters. Therefore, he gets his spot back.

[ThejacKmp]

 

If someone worries about promoting young guys out of fear of what hypothetical free agents might think of them a year later, they have no business running a team.

 

Plenty of teams demote, DFA or trade vets in favor of young players when their teams our out of it. It's the norm, not an exception.

 

 

Yeah but teams don't DFA with two years left on a deal. They could trade him but they certainly will not and should not just not play him to give younger players a chance.

 

It's also not about not promoting young guys. Santana is a good pitcher who has had success with the Twins. And as perhaps the most elite free agent signing the Twins have ever made, it behooves them to treat him with respect. He wants to compete and potentially wants to sign another contract. If the Twins sit healthy effective free agent pitchers, they're never going to get another one.

 

It's just about good business. You don't piss off your employees for no reason - if you do, it makes it harder to hire good employees in the future.

[ThejacKmp]

 

I've said it before and I will say it again.  May of 2015, while fun at the time, is the worst thing that could have happened to this team as it relates to building the future of Twins.

 

Meh, disagree. I think it was the worst thing that could have happened for maintaining the optimism of TD readers and posters but I don't think it altered the front office's plans at all. They've continued to prioritize a long-term view and have avoided the win-now moves that teams like the Astros made. I don't think that May had any real effect on the Twins plans - the same guys would have been on contract and the same guys would have the roles they have now.

 

May 2015 got Twins fans excited and while this year may dampen that some, the stream of young players coming up to the majors should keep that momentum up. And young guys got to experience the thrill of a pennant race at the MLB level.

 

May 2015 was great.