Is this a SSS, or reality?

[Platoon]

I am not sure where the Twins go from here. One can talk SSS all one wants, but one also has to take into account that the SSS is backing up some concerns that were evident before the season started. OF defense, SO'S, and a soft BP. SP has been almost a pleasant surprise, recent injuries notwithstanding. For all I know the FO might even have a plan? But if they did, such as promoting youth, it's been somewhat checkered. The three new SP, are going to have to be culled to one. After today, i imagine Duffey has the inside track. And I imagine Polanco will be almost glad to go back to Rochester, when Plouffe returns. Why they brought him and Kepler up to sit is beyond me. And if the plan was to replenish the pen with the Burdis and Chargois of the world, it has been undercut by the BP being a mess earlier than hoped, plus Perkins injury. The insistence on Dozier in the top of the order continues to amaze, Sano did his Marlon Bird impression today, and Nunez was what Nunez is, when you play him too long. The bottom line, the FO took a team with a pitching staff that gives up a lot of contact, and surrounded them with poor catching, mediocre IF defense, and a poor OF defense. They thought they could balance this with a punishing offense, ignoring the rally killing effect of endless SO's and low OBP. Solo HR moon shots are very entertaining. Dick/Bert can get two innings of chatter out of each one, but they don't win many ball games. The Twins are in a place of ther own doing, and I am not sure it was even avoidable. I am often critical of TR, but I am not sure whether there was an alternative outcome. Even my desired trading of some sacred cows, i.e. Dozier and Plouffe for starters would have not brought in the help to turn this around this soon. Neither would buying a Mid level FA reliever. This is going to be a long term, large project. This isn't youth filling holes in a solid team, this is youth becoming that team, and it's gonna take longer than we imagined. It is quite possible that not all the mistakes have been made in the FO, and in the field. Some appear to be made by the fans who expected last years fluky month of May to continue this year. Frankly I didn't expect much this year, all I hoped for is continued patience seeing if the farm system is for real. It's going to take patience and fortitude, but there is no other alternative.

[Kwak]

The term SSS is abused in this forum.  True, it may take 1000+ AB for a hitter or 50+ starts for a pitcher to make a statistically meaningful assessment of that player--but teams don't have that much time to give a prospect unless there is considerable evidence that this guy is already "a success".  If the success isn't evident someone else must be "given a chance". 

 

Ryan has stated several times "No scholarships", which means players must demonstrate success is a short time frame irrespective of how highly rated of a prospect.  I infer that it also applies to veterans (with long-term contracts!) though I'm not certain.  I expect a "step back" this year--with struggles in April.  There have been plenty of teams that recovered from 10 games under .500--like the '06 Twins!  I don't believe this one will, but they certainly can develop a new core to attain long-term success this season despite a losing record.  But SSS?  There isn't time to use this as an excuse--there is never enough time!

[nicksaviking]

I don't understand why the three young pitchers have to be culled to one. I'd roll with them all hoping the lumps they take this year pay off next year.

[Thrylos]

 

 

 

Ryan has stated several times "No scholarships", which means players must demonstrate success is a short time frame irrespective of how highly rated of a prospect.  I infer that it also applies to veterans (with long-term contracts!) though I'm not certain. 

 

That should first apply to the President, GM and the Manager who seem to be tenured.

 

Bottom line:  This team will not be a contender unless Pohlad sells to someone who cares about wining, like his dad did 30 years ago.

 

Period.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

The high strikeouts is a feature, not a bug. Ryan hung on to all the high K guys this winter, and even went and acquired a couple more, Park and Palka. Maybe another guy like Polanco who puts the ball in play should bat at the top of the order and slide Sano down to 4 as long as Mauer is doing so well. 

 

It also appears that switching Nunez to RF and Sano to 3B would instantly improve the fielding at both positions. 

[Platoon]

The high strikeouts is a feature, not a bug. Ryan hung on to all the high K guys this winter, and even went and acquired a couple more, Park and Palka. Maybe another guy like Polanco who puts the ball in play should bat at the top of the order and slide Sano down to 4 as long as Mauer is doing so well. 

 

It also appears that switching Nunez to RF and Sano to 3B would instantly improve the fielding at both positions.

 

And where would Polanco play. And if Nunez and Sano switch, Plouffe? Ergo that is the problem. This is going to take a complete overhaul, not a few plug and plays. Btw, I hope I was clear on SSS. I don't normally put much stake in SSS, but when SSS is inline with expectations in an area, there can be more credence to SSS. For example, if Hughes has a SO rate of 10/9, over 4 games SSS might be likely be a factor. If his rate is 6/9, in 4 games, it's still a SSS, but likely an accurate view of his level.

[Dr. Evil]

What does sss stand for?

[drock2190]

 

What does sss stand for?

 

Sweet, Sexy and Short

[Twinfan & Dad]

Bottom line. This is Terry Ryan's doing. A flawed plan of putting together a roster. Poor defense from a group that had a history of poor defense. Inconsistent pitching again from a group that had no clear cut ace and hitters who make contact at below average rates. TR doesn't field,pitch or hit but he sure as hell put this this train wreck together.

[Reider]

Platoon, I think it's a combination of SSS and reality.

 

SSS - Dozier got off to a slow start this year, whereas last year he had a solid first half. Perkins got off to a slow start to the season, then got injured. Jepsen got off to a slow start. Other hitters and pitchers have gotten off to a slow start. Plouffe got injured.

 

Santana, Nunez, Nolasco etc.. got off to good starts. Not sure if these players can keep their numbers up for the remainder of the season.

 

Arcia has had some clutch hits. Not sure if he's ready to be an every day player or if it's SSS. His stats are okay, but don't look great. Still early in the season.

 

Reality - We knew there would be growing pains with Sano in RF. While he's made some nice catches (including at least one beautiful diving catch), he's also misread and misplayed a few balls out there.

 

We knew Park may need time to adjust to the MLB pitching. While he's capitalized on some breaking balls left over the plate (crushing them into the seats), it would be great if he could get his AVG and OBP up. This may happen over time as he see's more MLB pitching. Not concerned at this point. He's on pace for over 30HR's this year.

 

Buxton. In the off season I felt that he just wasn't ready (hitting wise) yet and sure enough he already got sent down. Hopefully he can turn things around and help this team at some point this season.

 

Positives: Mauer appears to be seeing the ball better than the last two seasons (post concussion). Abad is a bright spot. I hope his success carries on throughout the season. Others that I already mentioned (Nunez, Santana, Nolasco, Arcia's clutch hitting, Park's power etc..)

 

In Conclusion: There's just not enough players contributing yet. Last year there was a good combination of veterans and young player contributing (pitchers and hitters alike). This year a lot of those players are either injured or not playing the way they did last year. The Twins need their best players to play their best. Mauer is pulling his weight, but guys like Dozier, Perkins, Jepsen, Rosario etc.. need to play better.

 

Also, what about the young guys this year? Sano has decent numbers, but I'd like to see him hit more HR's. And what about Murphy? He has 35 at bats and only 3 hits and a walk to show for it. A lot of the other young guys need to get going and help this team win games. Pitchers need to be better.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Bottom line. This is Terry Ryan's doing. A flawed plan of putting together a roster. Poor defense from a group that had a history of poor defense. Inconsistent pitching again from a group that had no clear cut ace and hitters who make contact at below average rates. TR doesn't field,pitch or hit but he sure as hell put this this train wreck together.

It certainly is a train wreck at the moment but where I disagree is that it's too soon to give up on this group. Not likely, but not impossible for them to turn it around this season. They ought to have some very good seasons in the near future. But they have looked so shabby coming out of the gate. Someone needs to figure that out and fix it.

[theBOMisthebomb]

Have patience young Skywalker. This too will pass and this young talent will provide many years of competitive, possibly playoff, baseball.

[Badsmerf]

When does it become a trend instead of a small sample? We are a month in now, and the inadequacies of this team are exactly what many predicted.

 

I have no expectations for this team until there is new leadership that can execute a vision.

[Rosterman]

Who do the Twins have on the 40-man roster. Pretty much Polanco, Kepler, Vargas and Walker. That's it.

 

The genesis for a new team is in the works. They do have to find a catcher, not necessary a top-flight guy, but someone who can do more than Suzuki, and then train in Murphy, Walker and whomever. 

 

A decision has to be made about Dozier, just as a decision needed to be made about Plouffe. Is Sano at third? Do you go with speed in Polanco at second? Where DO you put Walker and Kepler in the near future. How far away is Gordon for short.

 

You can never have too much pitching. The starters are still doing a solid job.

 

Right now, have to figure out how to construct the roster, probably for next year and beyond. And hopefully pull out the stoppers and get a $100 million dollar starter...but not this year...probably not next year, either, with Santana and Hughes still holding down the fort.

[curt1965]

I think what we might be seeing is something like the 1980's Twins teams. Those players-Hrbek, Laudner,

Gaetti, Viola, and Puckett- had one decent year (1982??), but struggled mightily while they took their lumps and did a lot of losing. Brunansky and Gagne came a little later, but they all grew up together and were the basis for 1987 and 1991. Are any of the current players in that class? Maybe, but it appears our hitters are pretty much what you see now( with the ultimate additions of Buxton, Kepler, and Gordon). It also appears we should have plenty of excellent pitching in the pipeline, and a trade in that area might add a significant hitter.

But, IMO, their is nothing you can do immediately with this present group. The roster construction just won't allow that to occur. I think the addition of Plouffe will help, but that is also going to add confusion of who plays where and who sits.

What hurt this group the most, again IMO, was the signings of Hughes, Santana, and Nolasco. Were the Twins that close to be a contending team? Was there no hope that our pitchers in the minors wouldn't develop?

I guess patience is what's needed, and hopefully a plan is developed for this team to succeed.

[curt1965]

I guess Rosterman and I are on the same page. When I was adding my post, I saw that he had added his wise advise previously.

[Reider]

 

Who do the Twins have on the 40-man roster. Pretty much Polanco, Kepler, Vargas and Walker. That's it.

 

The genesis for a new team is in the works. They do have to find a catcher, not necessary a top-flight guy, but someone who can do more than Suzuki, and then train in Murphy, Walker and whomever. 

 

A decision has to be made about Dozier, just as a decision needed to be made about Plouffe. Is Sano at third?

What decision needs to be made about Dozier?

 

The decision on Plouffe was already made. They're keeping him at 3rd base (for now anyways).

 

The decision was also made on Sano. He's the Twins right fielder now.

[Reider]

 

 

But, IMO, their is nothing you can do immediately with this present group.

There is a lot of talent on the team (including the guys like Buxton-Kepler-etc.. in the minors), they just need to play through it like they did last year. The team isn't running on all cylinders yet and some of the talent is still in the minors developing.

[kab21]

the reality is that the Twins are 7-17 and they have almost certainly doomed this season.

 

The SSS is a starting CF with a .500 OPS (and demoted), a starting LF with a .577 OPS and potentially stud RF with .745 OPS. The SSS is a borderline all-star 2B with a .617 OPS. The SSS is also a former MVP that looked washed up looking like an MVP again. The SSS is also a scholarship player looking like an actual ballplayer (Nolasco) but so far there are more disappointments that players exceeding their expectations.

 

With that being said I didn't like entering the season with Buxton as basically the only option in CF with no plan B. I also didn't like how the handled the bullpen in the offseason. They certainly had a poor offseason.

 

 

The term SSS is abused in this forum.  True, it may take 1000+ AB for a hitter or 50+ starts for a pitcher to make a statistically meaningful assessment of that player--but teams don't have that much time to give a prospect unless there is considerable evidence that this guy is already "a success".  If the success isn't evident someone else must be "given a chance". 

 

Ryan has stated several times "No scholarships", which means players must demonstrate success is a short time frame irrespective of how highly rated of a prospect.  I infer that it also applies to veterans (with long-term contracts!) though I'm not certain.  I expect a "step back" this year--with struggles in April.  There have been plenty of teams that recovered from 10 games under .500--like the '06 Twins!  I don't believe this one will, but they certainly can develop a new core to attain long-term success this season despite a losing record.  But SSS?  There isn't time to use this as an excuse--there is never enough time!

 

This isn't at all what no scholarship means. No scholarship is about a guy like Nolasco getting a chance despite being awful for multiple years and less talented than a prospect. There is no way that the Twins should be jerking players into and out of the lineup or down to AAA based on a couple of weeks of data. And this is even more true of young players and prospects that won starting jobs. Those players are going to struggle at times.

[Platoon]

What decision needs to be made about Dozier?

 

The decision on Plouffe was already made. They're keeping him at 3rd base (for now anyways).

 

The decision was also made on Sano. He's the Twins right fielder now.

Yes, what about Dozier? Polanco? ? I fear his defense will mitigate the offensive upgrade. But by stubbornly leaving Dozier in the top of the lineup, Molitor is telling me that he can't see the forest for the trees, I don't believe in yo yoing guys up and down after two good/bad days. But it's been months of this. The Plouffe/Sano Saga is a different matter. This is the equivalent of the Timberwolves having 3 NBA competent centers, and signing Townes. And keeping all 4 because they all can rebound! SOMEONE has to go, you can't efficiently play with 4 centers. It's not a comment on the other three centers, it's math. (Highly frowned on, at TD!)

[Mr. Brooks]

And where would Polanco play. And if Nunez and Sano switch, Plouffe? Ergo that is the problem. This is going to take a complete overhaul, not a few plug and plays. Btw, I hope I was clear on SSS. I don't normally put much stake in SSS, but when SSS is inline with expectations in an area, there can be more credence to SSS. For example, if Hughes has a SO rate of 10/9, over 4 games SSS might be likely be a factor. If his rate is 6/9, in 4 games, it's still a SSS, but likely an accurate view of his level.

Polanco can play SS. It might not be his ideal position, but it's where he has the most milb experience.

[goulik]

Platoon, I think it's a combination of SSS and reality.

COMPLETELY agree with this.

Young developing players: SSS. These guys are at various stages of their development and until they are well into year 3, we won't really know where they are at. They will adjust, then the other team will adjust, then they will have to readjust. It's just how it works. I see these guys all falling into that picture...

Adjusting to Majors: Meyer, O'Rourke, Buxton,Berrios, Park, Polanco

Other teams adjusting after some success: Duffey, Sano, Murphy, Rosario, May

Needing to readjust: Santana, Pressly, Arcia

 

I think we know what we have with the rest of them on the roster. The exciting part is we are not only VERY young, there are more young guys on the way. As this all shakes out this year, I think we will see 2-3 midseason trades, possibly some DFA's, and some promotions of more prospects, bullpen AND hitters.

 

I was hoping for a playoff year but that is probably out of the cards. In no way did I think this was going to be the year to make a run but I hoped and still hope next year and for the next decade this is a team that could make several runs if managed correctly. I think it is way too early to judge Molly or Terry on this years team yet. Has anyone seen the Astros regression this year? Yes, SSS and youth...

[ashbury]

I think what we might be seeing is something like the 1980's Twins teams. Those players-Hrbek, Laudner,

Gaetti, Viola, and Puckett- had one decent year (1982??), but struggled mightily while they took their lumps and did a lot of losing. Brunansky and Gagne came a little later, but they all grew up together and were the basis for 1987 and 1991. Are any of the current players in that class?

You're thinking of 1984, when they unexpectedly contended (with the core that was constructed during the preceding few years in the wilderness) and fell short at the end. 1985 and 1986 were disappointments, and then we all know what came next.

 

I like the quote that history doesn't necessarily repeat but it sometimes rhymes. I was prepared for a below-.500 season, though not quite like this.

[ashbury]

What does sss stand for?

I don't think anyone gave you a serious answer to this. Small Sample Size. Baseball isn't random but some statistical methods work well if you let enough numbers roll in.

[Jham]

Mostly small sample size, some reality sprinkled in.  IE it's way too early to judge Buxton's entire game, but it's clear he will not likely be an above average hitter this season. He'll like need that full 1000 at bats. So does that make his struggle reality or little n?  I think it's reality for this season.

Some were very critical of the pen citing Perkins decline, Jepsen's unusually good luck last season, May's likely regression, and Fien's overall Fien-ness.  I think the plan was to move up Burdi, Charg, Meyer, or Reed as soon as someone (Tonkin) struggled.  I was ok with that plan, betting on getting a high end bull pen arm out of the system instead of buying one.  You can say that was a bad plan or risk, but if we were in the thick of it, I know we could trade for one, and since we're not, it looks worse than it is.  Injuries to Perkins and Burdi didn't help.

 

I have no idea as to whether Mauer's success and Dozier's struggles are n or reality.  I'm fairly sure by now Nunez and Nolasco's success is almost purely n.

I think the biggest reality with the team is that we lack any sort of leadership.  I don't think this team has veterans who know how to handle losing or care an awful lot about much more than their own stats once the team falls more than a few games back.  Dozier has nice hair, and builds houses for poor people in the off season, but his hitting approach is just stubborn.  After the 0-9 start, I was at the game we won, and it was evident from pitch 1, that we were focused on going back up the box.  Everyone was freshly determined.  Now it's gone.  Molitor is a passive or passive aggressive manager.  Worse, the young players are learning that the best way to deal with losing is to just shrug your shoulders and worry about your own stat line.  

Unpopular opinion: We miss Torii Hunter.

[Jham]

 

You're thinking of 1984, when they unexpectedly contended (with the core that was constructed during the preceding few years in the wilderness) and fell short at the end. 1985 and 1986 were disappointments, and then we all know what came next.

 

I like the quote that history doesn't necessarily repeat but it sometimes rhymes. I was prepared for a below-.500 season, though not quite like this.

Gaetti and Puckett were two of the toughest competitors I've ever seen.  Hrbek too at least between the lines.  Who on this team can bring the fire of a Gaetti or Puckett?

[Kwak]

 

the reality is that the Twins are 7-17 and they have almost certainly doomed this season.

 

The SSS is a starting CF with a .500 OPS (and demoted), a starting LF with a .577 OPS and potentially stud RF with .745 OPS. The SSS is a borderline all-star 2B with a .617 OPS. The SSS is also a former MVP that looked washed up looking like an MVP again. The SSS is also a scholarship player looking like an actual ballplayer (Nolasco) but so far there are more disappointments that players exceeding their expectations.

 

With that being said I didn't like entering the season with Buxton as basically the only option in CF with no plan B. I also didn't like how the handled the bullpen in the offseason. They certainly had a poor offseason.

 

 

 

This isn't at all what no scholarship means. No scholarship is about a guy like Nolasco getting a chance despite being awful for multiple years and less talented than a prospect. There is no way that the Twins should be jerking players into and out of the lineup or down to AAA based on a couple of weeks of data. And this is even more true of young players and prospects that won starting jobs. Those players are going to struggle at times.

"Scholarship" is applied to those who hold "favored position" and therefore obtain "forgiveness" for poor performance.  It is not just for veterans with contracts--no, it is typically applied to prospects, hence the term "scholarship" which is typically applied to students as opposed to "golden boy" (or something that) which is used for "established" players that receive favor.

[Pardon My Dinger]

What does sss stand for?

S'wonderful, s'marvelous, s'Terry.

[nicksaviking]

Gaetti and Puckett were two of the toughest competitors I've ever seen.  Hrbek too at least between the lines.  Who on this team can bring the fire of a Gaetti or Puckett?

How would anyone measure and evaluate that?

 

Arcia clearly is passionate, unfortunately he has too often been villainized and likely in no small part because of his temperment. Sano too appears to be an emotional and vocal player as do Santana and Rosario.

 

If we are OK with the emotional leaders being non-American, I think there is plenty of fire here to work with.

[kab21]

 

"Scholarship" is applied to those who hold "favored position" and therefore obtain "forgiveness" for poor performance.  It is not just for veterans with contracts--no, it is typically applied to prospects, hence the term "scholarship" which is typically applied to students as opposed to "golden boy" (or something that) which is used for "established" players that receive favor.

When Terry Ryan said 'no scholarships' he was referring to the Blackburn type situations where highly/moderately paid veterans were sticking with the team even though it was obvious that they sucked.

 

How many games are you willing to let a prospect play through before you start jerking them around? A week? 2 weeks? A month? This is a decent team (although they don't look it) but they are still in the last part of the rebuild process and the young players need to have an opportunity to play through their struggles. You can't jerk young players around like that.