Fangraphs (and other national publications) on the Twins

[Mike Sixel]

9:53
John: Do you think Sano will ever become the star many thought it would become? His hit tool was once thought of to be advanced. Think he justs swings too hard and tries to hit homers too much?

 

9:53
Jeff Zimmerman: I think we will be like Chris Davis-like
9:53
Paul Swydan: I think that all Minnesota hitters are suspect until they become proven. Maybe that will change under the new regime.

[Vanimal46]

 

9:53
John: Do you think Sano will ever become the star many thought it would become? His hit tool was once thought of to be advanced. Think he justs swings too hard and tries to hit homers too much?

 

9:53
Jeff Zimmerman: I think we will be like Chris Davis-like
9:53
Paul Swydan: I think that all Minnesota hitters are suspect until they become proven. Maybe that will change under the new regime.

Trying to read between the lines if Chris Davis-like is a good thing or a bad thing? I wouldn't mind Sano being a consistent 35+ HR threat, with the occasional 50 HR season. 

[Mike Sixel]

Not sure, but I think he's saying there's a chance....

 

Erik
12:07 How many teams are there right now for whom you would say that the amount of lucky breaks they'd have to receive to make the postseason is just too large for you to even really consider it? I feel like the dividing line is right around the Phillies--are they on the good or bad side of that line?

 

Dave Cameron
12:08 Padres, Reds, White Sox, Phillies, Braves... I'd probably throw the Twins in there if they played in a better division. I think the Brewers are probably the line; there is enough young talent there to squint and see an 85 win run if everything goes their way, but it's super unlikely.

 

edit: based on this, yes...

 

5 Run Homer
12:34 If you were to choose a surprise division winner, who would it be and why?

 

Dave Cameron
12:34 Probably someone in the ALC. Cleveland has a lot of health risks and could tank if injuries go against them, so then you have an expected also-ran winning the division just because someone has to.

[d-mac]

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2016-hitter-contact-quality-report-al-catchers/

 

On Castro (this is a summary):

His range of potential offensive outcomes is arguably larger than those of any other player in this group. I’m taking the glass-half-full approach with Castro, and expect him to move near the top of this list in the next year or two as he taps into some power.

 

Interesting his last year's contact score, wRC+, and adj production were better than Suzuki's. People keep saying we'll be unhappy with his offensive production.  

[d-mac]

 

To avoid completely salting the wounds....

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/meet-the-dodgers-right-handed-skyrocket/

 

I'll just leave some of their love for Stewart here.....

 

Gah. De Leon and Stewart. Was that too much to ask for?

[nicksaviking]

 

Trying to read between the lines ...

 

 

12:34 If you were to choose a surprise division winner, who would it be and why?

 

Dave Cameron
12:34 Probably someone in the ALC. Cleveland has a lot of health risks and could tank if injuries go against them, so then you have an expected also-ran winning the division just because someone has to.

 

Van, allow me to read between the lines on this one. Dave Cameron is picking the Twins to win the AL Central.

[d-mac]

 

Van, allow me to read between the lines on this one. Dave Cameron is picking the Twins to win the AL Central.

 

Clearly.

[Twins33]

 

Gah. De Leon and Stewart. Was that too much to ask for?

It was reported that they didn't want to include Stewart with DeLeon due to depth reasons, which makes sense to me. Not sure if that's true or not...but again, it makes sense to me.

[d-mac]

 

It was reported that they didn't want to include Stewart with DeLeon due to depth reasons, which makes sense to me. Not sure if that's true or not...but again, it makes sense to me.

 

Then swap out Stewart for an equivalent quality position prospect. Or Alvarez and Stewart. Those are probably happy middle ground between De Leon + AAAA filler and De Leon, Alvarez + 3rd prospect. 

[Thrylos]

 

Trying to read between the lines if Chris Davis-like is a good thing or a bad thing? I wouldn't mind Sano being a consistent 35+ HR threat, with the occasional 50 HR season. 

 

Sano's MLB slash lines: age 22+23: .249/.346/.489, 16.7 AB/HR, 830 PA
Davis's MLB career lines: age 22+23: .258/.304/.488 18.1 AB/HR, 736 PA

 

There is similarity, but Sano does walk much more than Davis, which indicates better pitch recognition and has more HR power than Davis at the same age, which projects him to be a better player than Davis, maybe slightly, but definitely better.  That OBP/isoD difference (.096 isoD for Sano and .046 for Davis is significant) as is that 7.7% difference in the AB/HR within that sample

[Taildragger8791]

 

Sano's MLB slash lines: age 22+23: .249/.346/.489, 16.7 AB/HR, 830 PA
Davis's MLB career lines: age 22+23: .258/.304/.488 18.1 AB/HR, 736 PA

 

There is similarity, but Sano does walk much more than Davis, which indicates better pitch recognition and has more HR power than Davis at the same age, which projects him to be a better player than Davis, maybe slightly, but definitely better.  That OBP/isoD difference (.096 isoD for Sano and .046 for Davis is significant) as is that 7.7% difference in the AB/HR within that sample

 

I think if you had a spectrum connecting Chris Davis and Giancarlo Stanton Sano would currently sit somewhere in the middle. I'd place him to be a hair better than Davis due to the walks/pitch recognition and a little more power, but a fair bit behind Stanton due to the strikeouts and contact issues. I seem to recall a lot of swinging strikes from Sano on balls in or near the zone last year, and his strikeout rate needs to come way down for him to be more than a "3 true outcomes" guy, which is his floor right now.

 

It would be great if he can shrink those holes and leap from that spectrum and onto whatever one Miggy Cabrera has been owning for over a decade. I know that's where we had our hopes set, even though a Stanton-type would still be a really darn good player.

[Mike Sixel]

David
12:18 Is Berrios still a decent bet to bounce back after last year's rough audition?

 

Eno Sarris
12:18 Yes, the movement on his pitches is v good, all of them. Just needs to figure out how to get ahead.

[laloesch]

 

David
12:18 Is Berrios still a decent bet to bounce back after last year's rough audition?

 

Eno Sarris
12:18 Yes, the movement on his pitches is v good, all of them. Just needs to figure out how to get ahead.

 

So he lacks control is how i interpret this.  Great.

[Mike Sixel]

Deep in the hole
1:04 Eno...cmon...Buxton 20 bombs 35 steals this year..yes???

 

Eno Sarris
1:05 15 and 30 and a .235 BA

[bluechipper]

Deep in the hole

1:04 Eno...cmon...Buxton 20 bombs 35 steals this year..yes???

 

 

Eno Sarris

1:05 15 and 30 and a .235 BA

I'll take the over on all of those numbers.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Deep in the hole
1:04 Eno...cmon...Buxton 20 bombs 35 steals this year..yes???

 

Eno Sarris
1:05 15 and 30 and a .235 BA

 

I don't know how to react to those numbers....at first I though "ugh", then I got myself from "meh" to "alright", but I think I'm back to "ugh".

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I don't think Buxton steals 30, but I think he hits for a higher average and scores a lot of runs.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I don't know how to react to those numbers....at first I though "ugh", then I got myself from "meh" to "alright", but I think I'm back to "ugh".

 

batting averages are A LOT lower than we all realized these days.....

[Vanimal46]

That's for sure, Mike. Pick your preference, my flavor of choice is OPS. I'm hoping for ~ .750 OPS this season from Buxton. Not too concerned if Buxton has a .220 or a .275 BA, as long as he makes it count when he does make contact. 

[Mike Sixel]

New Guy
2:05 Do we see Miguel Sano take a step forward this year, or is there too much swing and miss in his game? If yes, should he have a shot to hit 35 homers with an acceptable BA?

 

Dan Szymborski
2:07 His power upside is just insane. He does miss a lot, but he's at least swinging and missing against good pitches.

 

Slamboni
2:09 Napoli supposedly turned down more money from Minnesota to go to Texas. Do you think that he saw an opportunity to get more playing time or another ring?

 

Dan Szymborski
2:09 Both to an extent.
2:10 Napoli's pretty clearly the 1B in Texas, something that would not happen in Minnesota.
He'd be fighting with Vargas for DH time really.
2:11 And the Rangers will likely be better than the Twins

 

Billy Beane
2:29 If I don't claim Byung-Ho Park I'm dumber than a dummy, right?

 

Dan Szymborski
2:29 Yes. YOU'RE VOLUNTARILY PAYING YONDER ALONSO

 

CarrotJuice
2:31 BREAKING: Park cleared waivers. Are you surprised that he cleared waivers? Shouldn't a rebuilding team have taken a flier on him?

Dan Szymborski
2:31 Yes and yes.

[d-mac]

Since we're on a Sano/Buxton tangent, I figured I'd share this. http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/xstats-steamer-and-players/

 

Andrew Perpetua has a nice system (xstats) that analyzes batted ball type using statcast data to help filter out "luck" in batters and pitchers and project future performance. Andrew released some projections, in the linked article, for some young players with potential fantasy value and compares his xstat projections to their Steamer projections. Included are Sano and Buxton. His projection for Sano is .247 BA, with .497 SLG and 30 HR in 546 PA, slightly above where Steamer has him. Buxton on the other hand, he has pegged for a .225 BA, .373 SLG, and only 11 HR in 513 PA, significantly less than Steamer. 

[Mike Sixel]

Sandy Kazmir
2:33 Why do people think that Byung-Ho Park is a good hitter? Have they ever seen him swing? Ocean liners move faster than his bat.

 

Dan Szymborski
2:33 I don't think he's a good hitter. But he's a gamble for a bad team.
2:34 I don't think putting my life savings on 23 in roulette is a smart investment. But if my other choice is putting my life savings on Yonder Alonso...

[Mike Sixel]

Hannah Hochever
2:48 BH Park cleared waivers. Most FG people (and myself) seemed to be certain he'd get taken. What am I missing?

 

Dan Szymborski
2:48 Slow bat speed

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

 

Trying to read between the lines if Chris Davis-like is a good thing or a bad thing? I wouldn't mind Sano being a consistent 35+ HR threat, with the occasional 50 HR season. 

That is his #1 comp through same age season.

[Thrylos]

 

Hannah Hochever
2:48 BH Park cleared waivers. Most FG people (and myself) seemed to be certain he'd get taken. What am I missing?

 

Dan Szymborski
2:48 Slow bat speed

 

FG people?  As opposed to TD people?

[Doomtints]

 

Hannah Hochever
2:48 BH Park cleared waivers. Most FG people (and myself) seemed to be certain he'd get taken. What am I missing?

 

She's missing the fact that the Twins would have revoked the waivers if someone had claimed him. The only thing this would have accomplished is the Twins would have been forced to put him back on the roster. There is no strategic advantage of forcing the Twins to do this in February.

 

Unless a team wanted to *trade* for Park, there would have been no point in claiming him. 

[Thrylos]

 

She's missing the fact that the Twins would have revoked the waivers if someone had claimed him. The only thing this would have accomplished is the Twins would have been forced to put him back on the roster. There is no strategic advantage of forcing the Twins to do this in February.

 

Unless a team wanted to *trade* for Park, there would have been no point in claiming him. 

 

It is not August    DFA Waives are not trade waivers and cannot be revoked

[Doomtints]

 

It is not August    DFA Waives are not trade waivers and cannot be revoked

 

There is no such thing as "DFA Waivers."  Nor is there anything called "trade waivers."  DFA and waiver rules are the same year-round.  Trading rules change after August, but the waiver process is identical.

 

The reason to do a DFA instead of just putting someone on waivers is that when you DFA someone, they immediately come off your roster.  When you waive someone, they don't.  Most players get waived in August but keep right on playing for the same team and never get traded or cut.

 

When the DFA happens, the team gets 10 days to decide what to do (cut, trade, waive/reassign to minors, or put back onto the roster).  

[jimmer]

I never thought for a second he would be claimed.

[old nurse]

http://m.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/designate-for-assignment

http://m.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/outright-waivers

Nothing says they are revocable waivers

There is mention of revocable in trade waivers

http://m.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/trade-waivers-August-31-deadline