Fangraphs (and other national publications) on the Twins

[Vanimal46]

Yeah it appears most of the national publications are off the Meyer bandwagon. Some of us Twins fans who still have his 2012 scouting report were clinging on to the front of the rotation prediction. 

[tobi0040]

A ranking of all the prospects traded yesterday.....Meyer isn't exactly near the top....

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/ranking-the-prospects-traded-at-the-deadline/

That is putting it lightly. They rate Mejia a 50 and note four average pitches, with plus command and control. And then they rate Meyer a 35.

[Mike Sixel]

Heh....

 

Hector Santiago: What the hell is going on?

10:15
Jeff Sullivan: I am so sorry

[tobi0040]

Looking at the fangraph list, is anyone else a little worried about the Yankees?

 

They just acquired a slew of high end prospects and by 2018 they will lose about $100m in payroll from where they started this year. They got rid of Beltran, Chapman, and Miller. Teixera is in his last year. A-Rod and CC are done after 2017 (CC has a vesting option that looks like it will vest after this year).

[d-mac]

 

Looking at the fangraph list, is anyone else a little worried about the Yankees?

They just acquired a slew of high end prospects and by 2018 they will lose about $100m in payroll from where they started this year. They got rid of Beltran, Chapman, and Miller. Teixera is in his last year. A-Rod and CC are done after 2017 (CC has a vesting option that looks like it will vest after this year).

 

They really played the deadline smart. Despite not being in a clear seller's position, they took advantage of an inflated market and made out like bandits. I wish the Twins would have followed their lead and sold Suzuki, Kintzler, and Santana too. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Looking at the fangraph list, is anyone else a little worried about the Yankees?

They just acquired a slew of high end prospects and by 2018 they will lose about $100m in payroll from where they started this year. They got rid of Beltran, Chapman, and Miller. Teixera is in his last year. A-Rod and CC are done after 2017 (CC has a vesting option that looks like it will vest after this year).

Bryce Harper is scheduled to hit FA after 2018, and Jose Fernandez too...

[bluechipper]

 

Bryce Harper is scheduled to hit FA after 2018, and Jose Fernandez too...

And Manny Machado and Matt Harvey and Kershaw and McCutchen. Joel Sherman wrote an article about it: http://nypost.com/2016/03/05/10-mlb-stars-may-make-2018-mlb-free-agent-class-the-best-ever/

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

And Manny Machado and Matt Harvey and Kershaw and McCutchen. Joel Sherman wrote an article about it: http://nypost.com/2016/03/05/10-mlb-stars-may-make-2018-mlb-free-agent-class-the-best-ever/

Thanks.

 

Mauer too!

[markos]

 

And Manny Machado and Matt Harvey and Kershaw and McCutchen. Joel Sherman wrote an article about it: http://nypost.com/2016/03/05/10-mlb-stars-may-make-2018-mlb-free-agent-class-the-best-ever/

I was just thinking this morning that I hope the new GM would work hard to configure the team to be able to go all in during the 2018 season. Next year is the year to solidify a hopefully decent roster, and then hope that around the trade deadline in 2018 they are in position to be a buyer, kind of like how the Royals were major buyers last year. And the rest of the division might play along. The KC's last hurrah is 2017 (Davis, Cain, Escobar, Moustakas, Hosmer, Duffy are all FA after 2017). DET will probably be rebuilding, and CWS might as well. CLE could still be good, but they just gave up a lot of talent to win right now, so they might be on more of a downswing. It isn't hard to visualize a scenario where the Twins are 5 games up in the division at the end of July, 2018, and there could potentially be multiple ace starters and relievers available at the deadline.

[jimmer]

 

Looking at the fangraph list, is anyone else a little worried about the Yankees?

They just acquired a slew of high end prospects and by 2018 they will lose about $100m in payroll from where they started this year. They got rid of Beltran, Chapman, and Miller. Teixera is in his last year. A-Rod and CC are done after 2017 (CC has a vesting option that looks like it will vest after this year).

very smart deadline work by the Yanks.  might have been the biggest winner at the deadline.

[Dantes929]

 

That is putting it lightly. They rate Mejia a 50 and note four average pitches, with plus command and control. And then they rate Meyer a 35.

If a guy like Meyer has above average stuff and below average command the variables are how much above average stuff and how below average command and how likely he is to improve command..   Obviously the mix isn't viewed very positively for Meyer.   On the other hand while no one really gets excited about average stuff and great control if taken literally average stuff + great command = above average pitcher.     Twins have had plenty of pitchers with average or below average stuff with average or below average command.       As I have said before, not all guys with 90 mph fastballs are created equally.    

[mazeville]

 

very smart deadline work by the Yanks.  might have been the biggest winner at the deadline.

 

They went from a middling farm system in the majors to one of the best. I was highly impressed by what they did. 

[Mike Sixel]

Elton: I’m trying to think which team might be the farthest away from contending. It feels like it might be the Twins.

10:50
Jeff Sullivan: Probably the Twins but it might be the Reds

[Mr. Brooks]

Elton: I’m trying to think which team might be the farthest away from contending. It feels like it might be the Twins.

10:50

Jeff Sullivan: Probably the Twins but it might be the Reds

I agree with Sullivan and have been saying this all year.

It amazes me that most people on this board think we can compete as soon as next year.

Sure, the lineup could be middle of the road or even above average, but I don't see any way our starting pitching isn't bottom 3 in baseball for at least another year.

[drivlikejehu]

 

I agree with Sullivan and have been saying this all year.
It amazes me that most people on this board think we can compete as soon as next year.
Sure, the lineup could be middle of the road or even above average, but I don't see any way our starting pitching isn't bottom 3 in baseball for at least another year.

 

I don't think the Twins can contend next year, but I still think Sullivan is wrong by a pretty wide margin. The Twins are actually 18th in BaseRuns record and have potential upside in terms of young talent. A good GM could have the Twins at least borderline in contention in 2 years, whereas I think 5 or so teams realistically are further away than that.

[Mr. Brooks]

I don't think the Twins can contend next year, but I still think Sullivan is wrong by a pretty wide margin. The Twins are actually 18th in BaseRuns record and have potential upside in terms of young talent. A good GM could have the Twins at least borderline in contention in 2 years, whereas I think 5 or so teams realistically are further away than that.

1) Other teams can buy good starting pitching. I don't believe for a second that the Pohlad's don't have any payroll restrictions. The Twins can get the Hughes and Nolascos and Santanas, but those types are mostly background noise. This team is never getting a 1 or 2 in free agency.

 

2) I can't picture any starting rotation that can be competitive any time soon. Sure, we have some promising prospects. But, they are a couple of years away, and as we've learned the last couple years, there are going to be ups and downs even once they do get here.

I think you are looking at at least 4 or 5 years before a rotation of Berrios, Jay, Gonsalves, Stewart and company are actually settled in and top form.

 

3) We are stuck with Molitor. Sorry, just one man's opinion but I think he's the worst manager in baseball. The guy plays DanSan as an everyday player, constantly gives away outs, almost never makes blatantly obvious pinch hitting moves, and is horrible at managing a bullpen.

[drivlikejehu]

 

1) Other teams can buy good starting pitching. 

2) I can't picture any starting rotation that can be competitive any time soon. 

3) We are stuck with Molitor. Sorry, just one man's opinion but I think he's the worst manager in baseball. 

 

1) Sure, the Yankees can buy starting pitching, but I wasn't think about clubs like them when I said others were further away. Plenty of other owners are cheap or at least cautious - the Reds, Brewers, Diamondbacks, Athletics, Rays, and others are limited financially as well.

 

2) Well, very few contenders actually have a good rotation top-to-bottom. The Orioles have basically 2 starters. The Twins aren't very smart about pitching, but in theory a new GM could help with that. Getting May back into the rotation along with Berrios would present some upside.

 

3) I'm not a Molitor fan at all but the manager reports to the front office; Molitor has been empowered to make bad decisions. A new GM could easily put a stop to it even if Molitor has to begin 2017 as the manager.

[Mr. Brooks]

1) Sure, the Yankees can buy starting pitching, but I wasn't think about clubs like them when I said others were further away. Plenty of other owners are cheap or at least cautious - the Reds, Brewers, Diamondbacks, Athletics, Rays, and others are limited financially as well.

 

2) Well, very few contenders actually have a good rotation top-to-bottom. The Orioles have basically 2 starters. The Twins aren't very smart about pitching, but in theory a new GM could help with that. Getting May back into the rotation along with Berrios would present some upside.

 

3) I'm not a Molitor fan at all but the manager reports to the front office; Molitor has been empowered to make bad decisions. A new GM could easily put a stop to it even if Molitor has to begin 2017 as the manager.

1) The Diamondbacks bought Zach Greinke, the Twins would never do that. Even with a new GM the Pohlads would nix it. The Brewers have shown a willingness in the past to trade for ace pitchers when they are in a playoff hunt, another thing the Twins have never done.

I won't believe we'll hire the new GM from outside the organization until it actually happens.

I may definitely move our timeline up significantly with a smart hire, but I just don't see it.

 

 

2) The Orioles are probably an exception to the rule. They have an elite lineup that the Twins will probably never have. Most consistently good teams start with starting pitching.

 

3) Sure, a new GM can take away DanSan, but they can't force Molitor to stop bunting and start pinch hitting, or stop burning through 5 relievers in a blowout.

 

To reiterate a statement I made above, I think a smart GM hire from outside the organization who puts a greater emphasis on analytics and medical and training could speed up the timeline significantly.

For the time being, I just don't trust the Pohlad's and Dave St. Peter to do that.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'm not so certain Sullivan is right here. I agree that SP is likely going to be the thorn in this team's flesh for the next couple of seasons, but I don't think all is dire. Santana is an above average starter. Gibson has shown that he can be an above average starter. He needs to put it together. We just got rid of our worst starter and replaced him with a guy who is probably average for starters, but could also be a non-tender if we don't like him. You've got above average potential in Berrios, May, and Duffey.  I don't see them all taking that big stride forward in 2017, but there could be a nice positive move there, and if it happens, you're taking about a rotation that is suddenly average to go with a lineup that should be above average next season.  That's a pretender that should keep fans coming late into the year at the very least.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I agree with Sullivan and have been saying this all year.

It amazes me that most people on this board think we can compete as soon as next year.

Sure, the lineup could be middle of the road or even above average, but I don't see any way our starting pitching isn't bottom 3 in baseball for at least another year.

Do you believe that in a short post season series, the results are a crapshoot or do the better teams have the advantage?

 

Given how the Twins accidentally stumbled into the postseason race last year, I'm not sure any team should ever completely concede a season.

[Mr. Brooks]

Do you believe that in a short post season series, the results are a crapshoot or do the better teams have the advantage?

I don't mean to cop out, but I think it's some of both.

 

I think there is a lot of variance in baseball, which is why they play 162 games.

 

So, I'd never say that anyone has zero chance, like I would in the NBA.

But, I think the odds are stacked towards the better teams, and specifically the teams that pitch better.

[drivlikejehu]

The perception of the Twins is being colored by two years of play sequencing:

 

- in 2015, the team was overrated because they had fortunate sequencing

 

- in 2016, the team is underrated because they've had unfortunate sequencing

 

In reality, the Twins have been below-average both years . . . the gap in actual production is far less than the difference in record.

 

Now, I have been strongly against the Ryan-led or staffed front office, because the Twins have been either bad or below average for too long while making poor decisions on a regular basis. But going back to the timeline topic: the Twins are at .462 in BaseRuns; the Reds are an astonishing .348, the Braves are .373 . . . the Twins are well ahead of the Royals, and they are going to be losing talent more than adding it.

 

Of course if the Twins make a terrible GM hire, they are sunk. I personally don't think that's necessarily the most likely outcome. I'm confident that Pohlad wants to make money above all else, and despite his bizarre and embarrassing public statements, I think there's a solid chance they make a sensible hire.

[Mike Sixel]

I took it as more of a.....the reds are bad... And the twins comment was politeness to the asker.....these chats go very fast.

[jimmer]

 

I took it as more of a.....the reds are bad... And the twins comment was politeness to the asker.....these chats go very fast.

I think, right now, some fans here are making the same mistake that some made last year when they saw some hope (like we have very recently) and over-estimated the talent on this team because of it.  FO and front office did the  same thing last year and hopefully won't this year.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Elton: I’m trying to think which team might be the farthest away from contending. It feels like it might be the Twins.

10:50
Jeff Sullivan: Probably the Twins but it might be the Reds

How are the Braves not mentioned?  The Twins shouldn't even be in that conversation, really -- we obviously won't be favorites, but even if one guy like Berrios emerges, I think we have enough solid pieces  around that to be relevant.  It feels like the Braves and Reds would need more than one guy to reach that level, which suggests they are further away.

[Mike Sixel]

Well, everyone loves the Braves rebuild a lot more than the Twins' rebuild.......that might be why. I'd say the Reds are in trouble, not that good, and in a very hard division. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Well, everyone loves the Braves rebuild a lot more than the Twins' rebuild.......that might be why.

Fair enough.  I guess I see the Braves and probably the Reds as having no chance in 2017, while the Twins have some kind of chance.  But another way to look at the question, is maybe the Twins increased chance in 2017 isn't big enough to qualify as "contention", and somehow the Braves win that race in a future year.  Still don't see it, but it's an argument that could be made.

[nicksaviking]

The Twins are going to have rotation issues, but the Mets just went to the WS and the only free agent arm was the entirely affordable Colon. I don't think the folks currently in charge are capable of drafting and trading for Mets caliber starters, but they may not be in charge long.

 

Hypothetically, how would people feel about the rotation/competitiveness if in the off season the Twins were able to swing a trade for someone like Chris Archer?

[bird]

 

They really played the deadline smart. Despite not being in a clear seller's position, they took advantage of an inflated market and made out like bandits. I wish the Twins would have followed their lead and sold Suzuki, Kintzler, and Santana too. 

 

 

I agree, the Yankees had a brilliant trade deadline. Trouble is, no one was going to give the Twins a prospect even remotely close to that for the likes of Suzuki, Kintzler, or even Santana.

 

The Twins were not in any position to follow the Yankee's lead. They did very well in getting the talent they got, as this Fangraphs report illustrates rather clearly. People were calling for them to simply dump Nolasco for nothing and take anything they could get for Abad, and even Nunez got much more than anyone here was expecting.

 

I'm not sure how one could criticize the Twins for hanging on to those guys for now. It's fairly safe to assume that offers for those three, if any, were underwhelming at best, and we'd hear plenty of complaints if they got a paltry return for them. I trust they're still with the Twins for good reason.

[bird]

 

Fair enough.  I guess I see the Braves and probably the Reds as having no chance in 2017, while the Twins have some kind of chance.  But another way to look at the question, is maybe the Twins increased chance in 2017 isn't big enough to qualify as "contention", and somehow the Braves win that race in a future year.  Still don't see it, but it's an argument that could be made.

 

 

My theory is that opinions skew favorably towards teams with a couple/three  high-ceiling, high profile prospects, and that even quality depth is slightly undervalued in these assessments. And that might actually be okay since it's essential to have a couple of future stars in the mix. The Twins benefitted from having Buxton and Sano in the pipeline by perhaps a couple of slots in the rankings, although their depth was (and probably still is) also a strength. The Reds, for example, have a nice little collection of Top 100 guys. I don't follow things closely enough to determine if they have a deep pipeline of guys like Rosario, Vargas, Gonsalves types coming up through the higher levels.