If Nolasco stinks will the Twins cut him? If so when?

[DiscGolfer]

I don't want to see Nolasco fail at all and I think he can still be serviceable.  He's still got 2 yrs 25 mil left on his contract.  It will probably take some sort of epic fail for the Twins to completely cut bait on him (hope it doesn't come to this) but what are some other big contracts that teams have just given up on?

 

The Braves recently released Nick Swisher, he had 1 year left on his contract and still owed 15 mil.  The Braves are paying 10 and the Indians are paying 5.

 

What other examples can you come up with?  I'm curious to see what's the biggest contract cut.

[SwainZag]

The Mets paid a pretty hefty sum to buy out Jason Bay a few years ago.

[sane16]

The Mets paid a pretty hefty sum to buy out Jason Bay a few years ago.

For Bay,the Mets bought themselves some payroll flexibility by negotiating a payout of the $21 million.

[DocBauer]

I know it's not the same, but who was the former NL pitcher the Twins signed a few years ago and then simply cut bait on when it was obvious it wasn't going to work?

 

Nolasco wasn't the guy I wanted a couple years ago. Kazmir was the guy I spoke up about. Turns out I would have been right. Oh that I could have turned that desire in to a front office job with the Twins! LOL But I thought the Nolasco signing was a solid one, though I didn't like the 4th year. But based on his career to that point, it was a very solid signing. And it's really not his fault how things have turned out.

 

But despite money owed, after 2 terribly disappointing and frustrating years, if Nolasco gets hurt yet again, or implodes, and Duffey and Berrios in the wings, May too if one of the top young bullpen arms is ready, I just don't see TR and management stubbornly refusing a small deal or outright DFA. But he will get April for sure, and possibly/probably May. By June 1st he's gone if consistently poor.

[Rosterman]

I want to believe that Nolasco wants to shine. He wants to earn his contract. He wants to pitch well, because the Twins might make him available, no matter what, to a contender. He knows he will pitch this season. He knows the Twins will consider keeping him around (shades of Joe Mays) in some capacity next season if they can't find a partial contract buyer in the least. Plus, if he wants to continue itching onward, with a multi-million dollar contract, he has to produce. If he is injured, that's not his fault. But let us just hope that the huge contracts of Hughes and Santana pay for themselves, or the powers-that-be will never ever sign a pitcher to a longterm contract again.

[DaveW]

At this point I don't really care if they cut him or not, if he continues to be a terrible SP for this team then all I hope is they move him to the bullpen ASAP.

 

You can survive having a pen that has a mediocre to bad mop up guy.

[DiscGolfer]

The Yankees are considering moving Sabathia to the pen as a long reliever.  He's owed 25 mil this year.

[DiscGolfer]

 

I know it's not the same, but who was the former NL pitcher the Twins signed a few years ago and then simply cut bait on when it was obvious it wasn't going to work?

 

Jason Marquis?  Signed for 3 mil and then cut on May 28th that year

[Twodogs]

 

Jason Marquis?  Signed for 3 mil and then cut on May 28th that year

then he had a pretty decent year in San Diego or something like that also.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Edwin Jackson is the obvious comp.  Very similar contract with the Cubs, two bad years (although generally more healthy than Nolasco), then with 2/26 remaining, he got stuck in a mop-up role at the beginning of last year, and then released halfway through the season with 1.5 years left.

 

I think Nolasco has a bit better chance to bounce back to at least his career average 90 ERA+, due to the injuries and the fact the Twins will give him more opportunity than the Cubs gave Jackson.  Not sure if that's a good thing yet, though...

[Otto von Ballpark]

For the Twins, one of the biggest was Mike Lamb.  Signed to a two-year deal, then he was cut with one year and one month to go, while still owed ~$3.5 mil on the deal.  That eclipses Marquis, who was cut with only 4 months and ~$2 mil left on his deal.

 

I've seen Blackburn mentioned elsewhere, but the Twins never actually released him.  They outrighted him to the minors with one year and one month and $5.5 mil remaining on his deal, but with just under 5 years service time, he had no right to refuse the assignment and remained Twins property until his deal was complete.

 

So even if he is cut as late as mid-August of 2017, Nolasco might still be the Twins biggest salary cut ever.

[Vanimal46]

More recent examples of released higher contracts is Jarrod Saltalamacchia at $7.5 mill, or Chris Johnson at $7 mill. 

I would put it at <10% that Nolasco is released outright this season. Best case scenario - Nolasco pitches lights out, another team has a significant injury, and the Twins can trade him somewhere. Worst case scenario(s) - Nolasco pitches horribly, still has zero trade value, and becomes a burden on the team. OR Nolasco pitches lights out, the team falls back in love with him, and keeps him for the duration of the contract. 

[Loosey]

Bobby Bonilla was a big salary cut. Although the Mets are still paying him . . . .

[Intramural Legend]

 

More recent examples of released higher contracts is Jarrod Saltalamacchia at $7.5 mill, or Chris Johnson at $7 mill. 

I would put it at <10% that Nolasco is released outright this season. Best case scenario - Nolasco pitches lights out, another team has a significant injury, and the Twins can trade him somewhere. Worst case scenario(s) - Nolasco pitches horribly, still has zero trade value, and becomes a burden on the team. OR Nolasco pitches lights out, the team falls back in love with him, and keeps him for the duration of the contract. 

 

I know it is fun to hate on Ricky, but how is him pitching lights out for the Minnesota Twins a worst case scenario??

[Loosey]

Piggybacking on the OP but going in the opposite direction.  At what point do the Twins/fans decide Nolasco is having a successful season? At what point do they attempt to trade or hold onto him for the long haul.  Here are my scenarios:

 

Worst Case:  Starts horribly in his first 4 starts in April.  Has an ERA of 5.5+ with very few strikeouts and tons of walks.  - In that case it may be time to cut him

 

Middle of the Road: Is getting about a k/9 of about 6.5 and ERA of 4.00 and in general is keeping the team in the games through 6 innings.  - In that case I would say he is "average" and may be able to get rid of him to a team in desperate need of starting pitching and make way for Berrio's, etc.

 

Best Case:  He is lights out.  Very few walks.  K/9 of 8+, ERA in the 3.00 range, ERA+ of 100.  In this case I keep him all year long and trade him after the season on the assumption its a one year wonder type of season.

 

In all scenarios I do think he is off the team by the start of 2017 season though.  I hope he has a career year though for a multitude of reasons. 

[ThejacKmp]

Nolasco won’t be cut this year. If he sucks in the rotation (and everything below is based on him sucking) he’ll move to the pen and become the long-relief guy with either Tonkin being sent to waivers or Pressly moving down to the minors (note that this may happen even if he’s okay since Berrios and Duffey will be in AAA auditioning to come up).  Ricky may not be amazing but he’s certainly capable of being Anthony Swarzak. He would have to absolutely melt down in that role to be in danger this year, in which case he and the Twins would likely find some injury and put him on the DL to protect his pride/reputation. He would have no reason to give the Twins any money since he'd have no prospects and the Twins would have no incentive to cut him since they could hope to save some money down the line (see below).

 

This offseason is the first time where you could see him cut but I still think you’ll see him come to spring training, though he may not be competing for a starting spot (or he may be “competing”). At that point, it depends if he thinks he has a chance to start anywhere. I can’t see the Twins being that team  - Berrios, Hughes, Santana, Duffey, Gibson would all be ahead of him, Milone may be back and there will be a new generation of starters like Alex Meyer (hopefully), Gonsalves, Thorpe etc. in the mix. But if some team wants him, the Twins may get a crappy prospect for him or he may be willing to negotiate a buy-out in order to have the chance to play. Otherwise you may see him play out the contract in that long relief role.

 

I do think that he has a good chance to Pelfrey it and be decent for the first few months of the year. There aren’t a lot of starting pitching trades in May/June but if Berrios is ready, the Twins will eat some salary and some team is looking for some back of the rotation depth due to injury, Ricky could move. That’s part of the reason why I’m glad to see Ricky get a shot.

 

[ThejacKmp]

 

Piggybacking on the OP but going in the opposite direction.  At what point do the Twins/fans decide Nolasco is having a successful season? At what point do they attempt to trade or hold onto him for the long haul.  Here are my scenarios:

 

Worst Case:  Starts horribly in his first 4 starts in April.  Has an ERA of 5.5+ with very few strikeouts and tons of walks.  - In that case it may be time to cut him

 

Middle of the Road: Is getting about a k/9 of about 6.5 and ERA of 4.00 and in general is keeping the team in the games through 6 innings.  - In that case I would say he is "average" and may be able to get rid of him to a team in desperate need of starting pitching and make way for Berrio's, etc.

 

Best Case:  He is lights out.  Very few walks.  K/9 of 8+, ERA in the 3.00 range, ERA+ of 100.  In this case I keep him all year long and trade him after the season on the assumption its a one year wonder type of season.

 

In all scenarios I do think he is off the team by the start of 2017 season though.  I hope he has a career year though for a multitude of reasons. 

 

We never got there for Pelfrey so I think we'll never get there for Ricky. Even if he has his best case scenario, Twins fans will be waiting for the other shoe to drop.

 

Career year would be nice. I'll agree he's off the team by the start of 2017 but I think there's a good chance he's in spring training next year, auditioning for other teams.

 

Can't see them cutting him this year: he'll move to the long relief role with Pressly/Tonkin moving to the minors/waivers. He has value in that role (and the Twins don't have anyone currently in that role).

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Worst Case:  Starts horribly in his first 4 starts in April.  Has an ERA of 5.5+ with very few strikeouts and tons of walks.  - In that case it may be time to cut him

Actually, that's probably not the worst case.  If he pitches bad enough to give the team clear justification to cut him, you've freed his roster/rotation spot for a better replacement.

 

Middle of the Road: Is getting about a k/9 of about 6.5 and ERA of 4.00 and in general is keeping the team in the games through 6 innings.  - In that case I would say he is "average" and may be able to get rid of him to a team in desperate need of starting pitching and make way for Berrio's, etc.

 

I think the worst case might be closer to this one.  Around career or league average, he still has very little trade value and offers marginal present-day value to the team, but that level of performance makes it unlikely the team would act decisively and demote/cut him to make way for someone else.  Think Mike Pelfrey last year -- he even added a "hot start" to the equation (sub-3.00 ERA into June) that made him extra hard to cut or demote, even at a significantly lower salary than Nolasco and on an expiring contract.

[Vanimal46]

 

I know it is fun to hate on Ricky, but how is him pitching lights out for the Minnesota Twins a worst case scenario??

For me I'd rather move on from the veterans and begin the transition to Berrios and Duffey ASAP. 

[ThejacKmp]

 

But despite money owed, after 2 terribly disappointing and frustrating years, if Nolasco gets hurt yet again, or implodes, and Duffey and Berrios in the wings, May too if one of the top young bullpen arms is ready, I just don't see TR and management stubbornly refusing a small deal or outright DFA. But he will get April for sure, and possibly/probably May. By June 1st he's gone if consistently poor.

 

If he's hurt again, they'll just throw him on the DL. He'd have no reason to give the Twins a break in a buy out and the Twins lose nothing letting him rehab.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Can't see them cutting him this year: he'll move to the long relief role with Pressly/Tonkin moving to the minors/waivers. He has value in that role (and the Twins don't have anyone currently in that role).

I don't know if anyone has "value" in the long relief role.  The role is almost valueless by definition.  Hence why the Twins have recently not bothered to fill the role, or used it for Rule 5 picks.  Either they pitch well enough to leave that role, or they stay in it accumulating no value (or negative value, if they are taking a roster spot that could be going to a pitcher in a better role).

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I know it is fun to hate on Ricky, but how is him pitching lights out for the Minnesota Twins a worst case scenario??

It could be worst case if he pitches lights out for a couple months, then regresses to his norms, like Pelfrey last year.

 

Obviously if he somehow sustains lights-out pitching for the next two years, that would be pretty good.  (But it's also quite unlikely.)

[Intramural Legend]

 

For me I'd rather move on from the veterans and begin the transition to Berrios and Duffey ASAP. 

 

Don't get me wrong, I completely agree with this.  I'm just saying that if a pitcher is doing  fantastic for the Twins, in no way is that a worst case scenario.  

[Mike Sixel]

I don't know what they will do, all I know is that last year, they kept Pelfrey around, even though they owed him less money. That may or may not indicate what we can expect this year.

 

I hope he wins the Cy Young, and leads the Twins to the WS championship, but I wouldn't bet on it.

[TheLeviathan]

Cut him?  He couldn't have stunk any more as a Twin and they have basically rolled out the red carpet for him to be the fifth starter since November.

 

I wouldn't bet on it.

[old nurse]

August 9 and 11, 2014. 

July 31,2013

December 18, 2013

 

Just when you least expect it Ryan has managed to offload a veteran player. The stars do need to be in alignment.  Some NL team will have a hole in their rotation and remember Nolasco's better times.

[Sam Morley]

Aside from Nolasco having a career year- which would mean being a servicable back of the rotation starter- the best case scenario is that he's horrible in his first couple starts and goes on the DL for the rest of the season. This is the next best thing to him being cut- which is unrealistic- and effectively the same. A trade for even low level non-prospects might not be plausible even if he is having the aforementioned career year. (If he stinks it up or gets hurt again, he's obviously untradeable. If he pitches his best from the five spot, there is no way the Twins will trade him, unless the team is totally out of contention). In my opinion, Nolasco going to the bullpen is unlikely and would be almost just as bad. First, I think it's unlikely because I think he'll go on the DL before he takes a bullpen role. Second, how many actual relief prospects are going to be knocking on the door by the time the Twins would be ready to try to send him to the pen? two, three, four... Burdi, Reed, Chargois, etc- maybe those are one inning guys and Nolasco would be seldom-used long relief, but just his spot on the active roster is an impediment. Sending him to the pen creates the same problem we have with him in the rotation: blocking younger, more talented players.

 

Ricky Nolasco is like some chicken breasts you bought a week and a half ago, cooked one and put the others back in the fridge and forgot about them. They sat in your fridge- not your freezer- and one day day, you were like, "I wonder if these are okay? I paid for them, I should at least take them out of the shrink wrap and give them a smell, they were good before." You smell, and they seem okay... maybe, you can't really tell. You know you're going to cook them, the whole universe knows you're going to cook them, you know you shouldn't. You do, and you even use other, quality, fresh ingredients, because now you are committed, and you believe you are composing an excellent meal. You use pasta and fresh vegetables and you make a savory sauce. You season the dickens out of the chicken. You put cheese on it. You plate it, it looks okay, serviceable, maybe good, not new york, five star, expensive good, but good enough for you. You sit, you cut into a breast- it's a little tough- maybe you just overcooked it a little. You take a bite... hmmm... something is not right. It's seasoned well. The cheese is good. What is it? Is it bad? You take another bite. Is it bad? No, it's good. "I don't know, I think this might be bad." You take another bite. You get whoever you live with to try a bite, "Come here, try this chicken."

They do, "This is chewy." 

You ask, "Is it bad?"

"Um... um... why?"

"It was in the fridge for like a week"

"Oh"

"Week and a half"

"Ugh, it's bad. Why didn't you throw it out?"

You've taken two more bites now. "I didn't want to waste it, it was expensive- free range, organic... from california. I think it's okay. It was good before."

"You're going to get sick."

"The sauce is good."

You know you eat all of it. You know that. And maybe you get sick, maybe not. Probably not, you have an iron gut, you can stomach some old chicken breasts from time to time. But.... yuck.

Personally, I know that the best thing to do is to just throw those breasts away, and get some new ones, or just eat the meal sans chicken entirely; but I also believe that what doesn't kill you, makes you stronger. Does Ricky "Ol Chicken Breasts" Nolasco" have the power to kill us from the five spot in the rotation, or from the long relief spot in the pen? Nah, but every one else might have to pick it up a notch or two to make up for it. 

 

You see the nickname right, 'Ol Chicken Breasts'? Support it. I actually feel a little better about the whole thing, if he ends up being called Ol Chicken Breasts all season.

[Otto von Ballpark]

And like old chicken breasts, Ricky Nolasco is difficult to cut.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

August 9 and 11, 2014. 

July 31,2013

December 18, 2013

 

Just when you least expect it Ryan has managed to offload a veteran player. The stars do need to be in alignment.  Some NL team will have a hole in their rotation and remember Nolasco's better times.

Correia, Willingham, Butera, and Doumit were in a different stratosphere of salary and guaranteed commitment than Nolasco.  It's very rare for a team to dump a salary like Nolasco's without eating a huge portion or it or taking an equally unpalatable contract in return, neither of which the Twins seem likely to do.

[ThejacKmp]

 

I don't know if anyone has "value" in the long relief role.  The role is almost valueless by definition.  Hence why the Twins have recently not bothered to fill the role, or used it for Rule 5 picks.  Either they pitch well enough to leave that role, or they stay in it accumulating no value (or negative value, if they are taking a roster spot that could be going to a pitcher in a better role).

 

It's not value like a starting pitcher or a position player but having a guy who can take that 5-0 game in the second and pitch four or five innings of three run ball or who can pitch the 8th and the 9th of a blowout loss/win saves the pen a ton of wear and tear. That's a valuable thing, if not the most valuable of course. 

 

I like the Twins pen right now but one of the issues is not having that long relief guy. No one gets excited about those Anthony Swarzak types but they play a role on a team. Obviously you don't want to pay that guy $12 million but the Twins may not have a choice. If Nolasco falters or Berrios dominates, they will certainly get some use out of him that way.

 

I think the issue is maybe that you're thinking WAR but this isn't about WAR, which can't measure everything - it doesn't measure the rest a long reliever gives to others in the pen. The Twins certainly didn't view Nolasco this way when they signed him but it may turn out to be a useful role for him to fill.