If Nolasco stinks will the Twins cut him? If so when?

[dxpavelka]

 

I want to believe that Nolasco wants to shine. He wants to earn his contract. He wants to pitch well, because the Twins might make him available, no matter what, to a contender. He knows he will pitch this season. He knows the Twins will consider keeping him around (shades of Joe Mays) in some capacity next season if they can't find a partial contract buyer in the least. Plus, if he wants to continue itching onward, with a multi-million dollar contract, he has to produce. If he is injured, that's not his fault. But let us just hope that the huge contracts of Hughes and Santana pay for themselves, or the powers-that-be will never ever sign a pitcher to a longterm contract again.

There isn't a GM in baseball that wouldn't be elated to hit on 2 of the 3 biggest FA acquisitions in the history of their team.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

It's not value like a starting pitcher or a position player but having a guy who can take that 5-0 game in the second and pitch four or five innings of three run ball or who can pitch the 8th and the 9th of a blowout loss/win saves the pen a ton of wear and tear. That's a valuable thing, if not the most valuable of course. 

 

I like the Twins pen right now but one of the issues is not having that long relief guy. No one gets excited about those Anthony Swarzak types but they play a role on a team. Obviously you don't want to pay that guy $12 million but the Twins may not have a choice. If Nolasco falters or Berrios dominates, they will certainly get some use out of him that way.

 

I think the issue is maybe that you're thinking WAR but this isn't about WAR, which can't measure everything - it doesn't measure the rest a long reliever gives to others in the pen. The Twins certainly didn't view Nolasco this way when they signed him but it may turn out to be a useful role for him to fill.

It's not really a WAR thing, it's just definitional.  Bringing in a mop-up man with a big early deficit is not a value role.  Whatever value you gain by "saving the pen", you are losing by punting the game (presuming your long reliever is not as a good as a series of short relievers in keeping the game close).

 

Not that a guy in that role can't come through with a valuable performance from time to time, just like any other player, but as a role, "long reliever" as traditionally conceived and deployed is near valueless.

[Blackjack]

When you bring in your long reliever, a guy like 'Ol Chicken Breasts', you're saving your short relievers for a future game so he HAS provided a valuable service to the team, even though he is vastly overpaid while doing it.  Not a very glamorous role, hopefully not needed very often, but it can help with future victories by keeping your short guys from wearing down.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

When you bring in your long reliever, a guy like 'Ol Chicken Breasts', you're saving your short relievers for a future game so he HAS provided a valuable service to the team, even though he is vastly overpaid while doing it.  Not a very glamorous role, hopefully not needed very often, but it can help with future victories by keeping your short guys from wearing down.

But you could use a pitching machine in that role, if the league would let you.  Doesn't mean the pitching machine is providing a valuable service.  Or better yet, someone with options like Logan Darnell, so after a game where he pitches 4 innings, you could option him out for a fresh arm in case you need one the next game too.  Virtually any AAA pitcher could "save the bullpen" in mop-up situations just as well as anyone else.

[old nurse]

 

Correia, Willingham, Butera, and Doumit were in a different stratosphere of salary and guaranteed commitment than Nolasco.  It's very rare for a team to dump a salary like Nolasco's without eating a huge portion or it or taking an equally unpalatable contract in return, neither of which the Twins seem likely to do.

And yet Fielder got traded for a minimal outlay compared to the size of the contract  . Paplebon got moved,   Jose Reyes,   Boston dumped a boatload of contracts on the Dodgers.  It isn't what you think of the player, it is what  some GM thinks.   Again, the advanced pitching statistics  fromNolasco's time  the NL show him to be a middle of the rotation pitcher..  There are very few pitchers the last few years when healthy regressed by going to the nl.   Shields is the only one I can think of.   Look at all of the years Jason Hammel stunk before landing with the Cubs.   He even stunk in his brief return to the AL with Oakland.  All it takes is one GM for the immovable contract to be moved.  Contending team, poor back end of the pitching staff, a trade could be done.  All Nolasco has to do is be healthy and average.

[clone52]

 

More recent examples of released higher contracts is Jarrod Saltalamacchia at $7.5 mill, or Chris Johnson at $7 mill. 

I would put it at <10% that Nolasco is released outright this season. Best case scenario - Nolasco pitches lights out, another team has a significant injury, and the Twins can trade him somewhere. Worst case scenario(s) - Nolasco pitches horribly, still has zero trade value, and becomes a burden on the team. OR Nolasco pitches lights out, the team falls back in love with him, and keeps him for the duration of the contract. 

 

Its post like these that illustrate how ridiculous people are.  You really think Nolasco pitching lights out is just as bad as Nolasco pitching horribly?

[Vanimal46]

 

Its post like these that illustrate how ridiculous people are.  You really think Nolasco pitching lights out is just as bad as Nolasco pitching horribly?

No? Yes? Concur. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

But you could use a pitching machine in that role, if the league would let you. Doesn't mean the pitching machine is providing a valuable service. Or better yet, someone with options like Logan Darnell, so after a game where he pitches 4 innings, you could option him out for a fresh arm in case you need one the next game too. Virtually any AAA pitcher could "save the bullpen" in mop-up situations just as well as anyone else.

Yep, it's a variation of the futility infielder. If the player was better, he wouldn't be a long reliever... Which means he's bringing something approximating replacement level value. Which means the position is mostly plug and play. Not a lot of "value" if any player can do it.

[old nurse]

 

And like old chicken breasts, Ricky Nolasco is difficult to cut.

A sharp knife works just fine

[Craig Arko]

No? Yes? Concur.

 

Anyone who pitches lights-out now for the Twins is okay by me. These games are played in the present, not the past, and not the future.

[diehardtwinsfan]

If he's bad out of the gate, I suspect he will move to the pen and one of Duffey, May, or Berrios will take his spot (probably Duffey).  Wildcards could be Dean or Rogers if they are lights out in AAA, but I suspect they don't see much time up unless we have a lot of injuries.