Wetmore's projected opening day roster

[drjim]

http://www.1500espn.com/twins-2/2016/01/wetmore-projected-opening-day-25-man-roster-for-2016-twins/

 

He doesn't think Buxton is guaranteed a spot, but has him in there.

 

Actually matches my personal thoughts at this moment 25 for 25. Bullpen strikes me as the most likely to change.

 

Click on the link for some extra commentary.

 

Santana

Hughes

Gibson

Duffey

Milone

 

Perkins

Jepsen

May

Fien

Tonkin

Nolasco

Abad

 

Suzuki

Mauer

Dozier

Escobar

Plouffe

Rosario

Buxton

Sano

Park

 

Murphy

Santana

Nunez

Arcia

[Platoon]

I probably should, but don't know what Buxtons situation is regarding control. If they leave him sit in Rochester for awhile, do they save a year. If thats the case, he either over impresses in ST, or I would imagine you could see the return of DanSan to CF. otherwise it could end up Arcia, Samo, and Rosario. In which case they would have to petition the league to allow a pocket man, ala slow pitch softball! As for what's told to the press/public, that and $4.86 will get you a up of coffee.

[DocBauer]

Probably the way it shakes out, and pretty much how I've thought for a while now. Not so sure there won't be a second LHRP in there though.

 

Oh how I wish the rotation and bullpen were strong enough and proven enough to keep a 5th OF for defense if nothing else!

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I probably should, but don't know what Buxtons situation is regarding control. If they leave him sit in Rochester for awhile, do they save a year.

Buxton will have to spend almost the entirety of 2016 in the minors for service time to matter.

[Mike Sixel]

Without a trade, this is likely it, other than the 30% chance Buxton is in AAA, and replaced by one of the veterans they signed to a minor league deal.

[beckmt]

Expect Buxton to start in Rochester unless he really impresses in spring training.  Rest is about correct.  Only difference I see is in the bullpen where I expect Tonkin fails and is released or traded, opening a spot for one of the Chattanooga relievers to start here(Burdi ?)  

[nicksaviking]

 

 Only difference I see is in the bullpen where I expect Tonkin fails and is released or traded, opening a spot for one of the Chattanooga relievers to start here(Burdi ?)  

 

Which I see as a bit of a problem. Burdi and company should be replacing the low ceiling vets like Fien and Nolasco, not the other young guys who at least have some potential like Tonkin.

[Seth Stohs]

There are definitely options for the various positions, which if good. If Abad struggles, Darnell and O'Rourke can step in. 

 

If they deem Tonkin or Fien expendable, they can go with Pressly, Graham, Chargois or others. I think Burdi and Reed will be options, but not at the start.

 

If Buxton needs a couple of months, you've got Santana, and Rosario and even Kepler. 

 

If a couple of starters get hurt, there are options. 

 

And if they add a couple of pieces now via trade or whatever, it's even more depth.

[Monkeypaws]

I really think the Twins are counting on Buxton as their opening day CF. 

 

I know I am.

[beckmt]

 

Which I see as a bit of a problem. Burdi and company should be replacing the low ceiling vets like Fien and Nolasco, not the other young guys who at least have some potential like Tonkin.

Tonkin is a AAAA pitcher.  Do not see him as a long term option or even a short term one.

[Thrylos]

 

Perkins

Jepsen

May

Fien

Tonkin

Nolasco

Abad

 

 

That's a pen that can lose 4 pitchers to be competitive, but the Twins are not done dealing...

 

Too early for estimations and projections

[diehardtwinsfan]

I hope I'm wrong and Buxton wows in ST, comes north, and goes Mike Trout on the AL, but I suspect he's in AAA (and I tend to think that's where he belongs).

[Danchat]

The only change I would make is Pressly for Tonkin. Pressly was pretty impressive before the injury.

 

I think Nolasco will make the bullpen... but with Abad and Nolasco projected to be there, the back end of the bullpen looks ugly.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Abad is the guy I would switch out, but Wetmore is probably right.

[TheLeviathan]

I hope it's Buxton, but I'm 50/50 he comes north.

[GACbaseball]

Which I see as a bit of a problem. Burdi and company should be replacing the low ceiling vets like Fien and Nolasco, not the other young guys who at least have some potential like Tonkin.

Tonkin is a AAAA pitcher.  Do not see him as a long term option or even a short term one.

I agree with Beckmt 100%. I think this board can confuse "potential" and "unknown." Just because we know what Fien and Nolasco can give us, does not give them less potential than Tonkin. We have not seen enough of Tonkin at the MLB level to know for sure what he can give us but I think his best case scenario is to be as good as Fien is now.

[Boom Boom]

I don't believe that the Twins will move Nolasco to the bullpen. He'll be in the rotation because they're paying him too much.

 

Duffey will be in AAA as the first starter to be called up.

[Blackjack]

 

I don't believe that the Twins will move Nolasco to the bullpen. He'll be in the rotation because they're paying him too much.

Duffey will be in AAA as the first starter to be called up.

I agree, Nolassco will get a few starts early in the season if he shows any kind of life in spring training.  Unless Duffy or Berrios are lights out in spring training. 

 

If Nolasco does ok, do you trade him and then bring up or Duffy or Berrios?  Or run with him the whole year??

[Thrylos]

 

. We have not seen enough of Tonkin at the MLB level to know for sure what he can give us 

 

Disagree.  Tonkin pitched 60 games at the MLB level.   Here are his numbers:

 

60 games, 53.7 IP, 3.35 ERA, 4.07 FIP, 7.5 K/9, 19.3 % K% 3 BB/9, 1.32 WHIP (.292 BABIP)

Compared to 2015 average AL reliever:

 

3.77 ERA, 8.4 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 1.29 WHIP (.290 BABIP)

 

Tonkin has been slightly below average reliever.  A decent guy to be the last BP arm in a contender, but that is about it

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I agree, Nolassco will get a few starts early in the season if he shows any kind of life in spring training.  Unless Duffy or Berrios are lights out in spring training. 

 

If Nolasco does ok, do you trade him and then bring up or Duffy or Berrios?  Or run with him the whole year??

I'd move Nolasco the moment I was able to do so.

[tobi0040]

 

I'd move Nolasco the moment I was able to do so.

 

Said everyone the last two years. 

[Dantes929]

 

Disagree.  Tonkin pitched 60 games at the MLB level.   Here are his numbers:

 

60 games, 53.7 IP, 3.35 ERA, 4.07 FIP, 7.5 K/9, 19.3 % K% 3 BB/9, 1.32 WHIP (.292 BABIP)

Compared to 2015 average AL reliever:

 

3.77 ERA, 8.4 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 1.29 WHIP (.290 BABIP)

 

Tonkin has been slightly below average reliever.  A decent guy to be the last BP arm in a contender, but that is about it

Quibbling a bit but I would be just fine with those numbers to be last or 2nd last or even the third last especially if we carry 13 guys..    On average teams his numbers would make him the 4th or 5th guy in the pen.   I think the misconception is that you need  7 shut down guys in the pen and no team has that.    You also need those guys that can come in and simply give you innings while keeping you in the game.   3.7 ERA guys have value.     I also wish we had a shut down guy but see no reason why one we have won't emerge to be that guy.     

 

As far as the list goes people probably get caught up too much on who is on the opening day roster but I get it.   I am anxious to see Buxton as well and fans are impatient by nature.     People said Escobar was a great utility guy to have but was not an every day guy when the exact opposite has been true so far.   Could be the same with Santana.   He might actually be a centerfielder.    Fast with a rocket arm.    If Buxton isn't ready I am comfortable with Danny out there for a while.    The one opening day spot I really care about is Dufey.   If he shows anything at all in ST I will be mad if he is not in the rotation.  He has earned it.   I have not given up on Nolasco.  :There is not reason to but there needs to be a better reason for him in the rotation than salary.  

[Thrylos]

 

Quibbling a bit but I would be just fine with those numbers to be last or 2nd last or even the third last especially if we carry 13 guys..    On average teams his numbers would make him the 4th or 5th guy in the pen.   I think the misconception is that you need  7 shut down guys in the pen and no team has that.    You also need those guys that can come in and simply give you innings while keeping you in the game.   3.7 ERA guys have value.     I also wish we had a shut down guy but see no reason why one we have won't emerge to be that guy.     

 

Agreed. On an average team he would be the 4-5th guy or so.  The hypothesis is that the Twins are planning to content, so players like that, better be the last guy.   

 

Also agreed that you don't need 7 shut down guys.  But you need a good 3-4 to content.  The problem with the Twins' pen is that it is mostly around average.

 

Here is the average AL reliever (- ERA) :

 

8.4 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 1.29 WHIP

 

Here are how the 2015 Twins' pen lines up against that average (ordered w/Ks, numbers above bold, below italics):

 

May (RP splits) 10.6 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 1.21 WHIP
O' Rourke 9.8 K/9, 6.1 BB/9, 1.41 WHIP
Perkins 8.5 K/9, 1.6 BB/9, 1.19 WHIP
Abad 8.5 K/9, 3.6 Bb/9, 1.34 WHIP
AVERAGE 8.4 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 1.29 WHIP
Jepsen 7.6 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 1.14 WHIP
Graham 7.5 K/9, 3 BB/9, 1.48 WHIP
Tonkin 7.3 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 1.29 WHIP
Pressly 7.2 K/9, 3.9 Bb/9, 1.41 WHIP
Fien 5.8 K/9, 1.1 BB/9, 1.09 WHIP
Thompson 4.7 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 1.33 WHIP

 

So I see 2 pitchers consistent above average (I included Jepsen's Full season numbers, Abad, and excluded the pitchers no longer with the organization)

 

That does not look the pen of a contending team, does it?   To look more like a contender's pen, it needs at least 2 pitchers at the May/Perkins level or (preferably) above.  Add Jepsen and Fien and someone who could pitch more than 2 innings and you are looking at no room for Tonkin, if the Twins want a contending team's pen.

 

So basically, the Twins are living on a prayer hoping that 2 of the Spring Training invitees Chargois, Burdi, Melotakis, Rogers, are those 2 players they need, otherwise, another season of mediocrity city.

 

Thus the frustration in the Twins Territory about this off-season.

[jay]

Hoping there's a big move with the Brewers or Rockies or someone yet to come.

 

If not, we've seen the Twins shake out veterans and young players alike for the first month or two and then tap into the minors to backfill where needed.

 

Plenty of candidates for that on this projected roster and plenty of backfill options as well:

Duffey

Milone

Tonkin

Nolasco

Abad

Rosario

Buxton

Sano

Park

Santana

Arcia

 

Berrios

Meyer

Rogers

Melotakis

Chargois

Pressly

Graham

Kepler

AB Walker

Polanco

Vargas

[Otto von Ballpark]

One thing to note about this projected roster: they have one non-40 man guy making the team (Abad), but they also have the three out of options guys (Tonkin, Arcia, and Santana) making it too.  In that scenario, I guess Logan Darnell gets waived to make room for Abad?

[tobi0040]

 

One thing to note about this projected roster: they have one non-40 man guy making the team (Abad), but they also have the three out of options guys (Tonkin, Arcia, and Santana) making it too.  In that scenario, I guess Logan Darnell gets waived to make room for Abad?

 

I think we see someone get traded off the 40 man for prospects.  Plouffe.  Arcia.  Maybe Milone.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Agreed. On an average team he would be the 4-5th guy or so.  The hypothesis is that the Twins are planning to content, so players like that, better be the last guy.   

 

Also agreed that you don't need 7 shut down guys.  But you need a good 3-4 to content.  The problem with the Twins' pen is that it is mostly around average.

 

Here is the average AL reliever (- ERA) :

 

8.4 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 1.29 WHIP

 

Here are how the 2015 Twins' pen lines up against that average (ordered w/Ks, numbers above bold, below italics):

 

May (RP splits) 10.6 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 1.21 WHIP
O' Rourke 9.8 K/9, 6.1 BB/9, 1.41 WHIP
Perkins 8.5 K/9, 1.6 BB/9, 1.19 WHIP
Abad 8.5 K/9, 3.6 Bb/9, 1.34 WHIP
AVERAGE 8.4 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 1.29 WHIP
Jepsen 7.6 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 1.14 WHIP
Graham 7.5 K/9, 3 BB/9, 1.48 WHIP
Tonkin 7.3 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 1.29 WHIP
Pressly 7.2 K/9, 3.9 Bb/9, 1.41 WHIP
Fien 5.8 K/9, 1.1 BB/9, 1.09 WHIP
Thompson 4.7 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 1.33 WHIP

 

So I see 2 pitchers consistent above average (I included Jepsen's Full season numbers, Abad, and excluded the pitchers no longer with the organization)

 

That does not look the pen of a contending team, does it?   To look more like a contender's pen, it needs at least 2 pitchers at the May/Perkins level or (preferably) above.  Add Jepsen and Fien and someone who could pitch more than 2 innings and you are looking at no room for Tonkin, if the Twins want a contending team's pen.

 

So basically, the Twins are living on a prayer hoping that 2 of the Spring Training invitees Chargois, Burdi, Melotakis, Rogers, are those 2 players they need, otherwise, another season of mediocrity city.

 

Thus the frustration in the Twins Territory about this off-season.

I agree, mostly. I think you're undervaluing Jepsen a bit, as he was injured for part of the season with Tampa and his velo was down. I think he's an adequate arm, maybe closer to his 2015 Twins performance than his 2015 Tampa performance.

 

But the Twins needed at least one more sure thing in the pen. Getting zero is... frustrating, to put it mildly.

 

Given the Twins' organization and guys like Meyer, Burdi, etc., I'm fine with picking up one more good arm and letting the prospects fight over the second open spot. But zero good arms? No, man. No.

[Don Walcott]

 

I think we see someone get traded off the 40 man for prospects.  Plouffe.  Arcia.  Maybe Milone.

I would love to see them trade Milone and put Berrios in the rotation.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I think we see someone get traded off the 40 man for prospects.  Plouffe.  Arcia.  Maybe Milone.

Could be, I was just speculating based on this projected roster (which included all of Plouffe, Arcia, and Milone too).

 

Personally, I doubt that all three of the out-of-options suspects (Tonkin, Santana, and Arcia) make the team out of spring training, but again they are included on the projected roster.

 

The only other real option for removal this spring, barring a 60-day DL injury, would be Darnell.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I agree, mostly. I think you're undervaluing Jepsen a bit, as he was injured for part of the season with Tampa and his velo was down. I think he's an adequate arm, maybe closer to his 2015 Twins performance than his 2015 Tampa performance.

 

But the Twins needed at least one more sure thing in the pen. Getting zero is... frustrating, to put it mildly.

 

Given the Twins' organization and guys like Meyer, Burdi, etc., I'm fine with picking up one more good arm and letting the prospects fight over the second open spot. But zero good arms? No, man. No.

Yes, agreed 100%.  They needed another arm like Jepsen back at the deadline, and very little has changed since then.  Pressly should be back, but Boyer's magic is gone, and Perkins is a bigger question mark than before.  Potentially dominant MLB LOOGYs O'Rourke and Rogers were largely untested in that role.  Even May had concerns about his back down the stretch. And as I've reminded countless posters here, Jepsen himself is scheduled to be gone after 2016 unless we extend him at a near-FA rate.  Fien too might be more expensive than his role warrants by 2017.

 

I like some of our internal options, and I hope that we are aggressive with them, but it's hard to view this offseason's bullpen approach as anything other than being way too comfortable with mediocrity.  Even our primary minor league invite (Abad) seems like we were shooting rather low (a LHP with terrible numbers vs LHB).