Hicks will be traded

[SwainZag]

 

I'd trade Buxton. No telling what you could get back for him. That could seriously alter the trajectory of this team.

 

You could also be trading the future face of the franchise......it makes nearly zero sense to even think about trading Buxton IMO.

[dgwills]

 

Rosario is NOT a second baseman anymore, just like Danny Santana is NOT REALLY a centerfielder. But, yes, right now Hicks may have more value that Rosario or Arcia. But do you see keeping Hicks longrange anyways (Rosario could be the 4th outfielder if you have Sano out there and/or Kepler or even Walker down the line...confusing where Park will be playing, still... I don't want to be general manager of the Twins right now. Players you maybe shouldn't get rid of (Arcia for one). Players you can't get rid of (okay, you can release Noalsco, yes you can). A love for middle-of-the-road guys (Fien, Pressley, Nunez for example). It's a tough job, especially coming off a halfway successful year in which you paid heavy on a starting rotation that eally didn't produce for the bucks spent.

I said Rosario could play second if needed. This implies an emergency. Oddly in the same paragraph you mention moving Sano to the outfield where he has never played. How is he NOT an outfielder by this logic.

[SwainZag]

 

These are all good points but Hicks will not cost nearly as much as the FAs. Fans don't care about the money but GMs and owners have a very different point of view.

 

Like you, I am a proponent of starting the season with Hicks and waiting until Buxton is ready before Hicks is made available.  However, I think you have to be open to the right deal.  It might make sense to deal Hicks for Norris or if someone offered a top of the rotation arm.

The problem is...no one is offering a top of the rotation arm for a 26 year old who may or may not have turned a corner. The more realistic deal, is a team offers a pair of 20 year old prospects for Hicks.  IMO he has a lot more value playing for the Twins than shipping him off at this point.

[bulldogguy]

 

Maybe Ryan is telling other GM's that Sano can play OF so it looks like he doesn't have to trade Plouffe.

These reverse-psychology things rarely work in sitcoms, so I'm not sure it will work on GM's.

I think you nailed it.  This seems to be a logical way to make it look like you will run with Plouffe as well next year to ensure the trade value remains has high as it can be.  Make it appear like you are ok with moving Sano to outfield and then trade Plouffe and put Sano back where you really want him to be.  If this isn't part of the plan, man it seems like the outfield log-jam just got mucked up even more.  Should be an interesting offseason...

[Pardon My Dinger]

 

The problem is...no one is offering a top of the rotation arm for a 26 year old who may or may not have turned a corner. The more realistic deal, is a team offers a pair of 20 year old prospects for Hicks.  IMO he has a lot more value playing for the Twins than shipping him off at this point.

And yet...

"it makes nearly zero sense to even think about trading Buxton IMO."

 

Just sayin, I see an opportunity.

[kab21]

I do not consider Rosario to be a CF'er although he could play there adequately for a couple of months or even a season if needed.  Even if Sano is moved to the OF I don't think the Twins make an offseason move with Hicks, Rosario, Buxton and Kepler.  I think Buxton and Kepler start in AAA and come up when an injury happens or 1 of Hicks, Rosario or Park struggle big time.

 

I predict an angry day/week when Arcia is shipped out for peanuts although there is a chance that he could stick as the 4th OFer next season.  But I think he has worn out his welcome with the Twins.

 

Vargas is a tough case if Plouffe isn't moved.  There is a good chance he plays an important role with Mauer/Sano/Park at 1B/3B/DH but if he also behind Sano at 1B/DH then it becomes hard to keep him.  I have a lot more confidence in Vargas right now than Arcia but position wise he is very difficult to keep.

 

I am the biggest fan of Kepler long term but I have no problem trading any of Rosario, Hicks or Kepler if they return the right needed piece.  They should have good value and they should return good value.  If the FO rules out going after Wieters and Lucroy then I am calling the Padres and see which piece(s) they are interested in (including Vargas, Polanco, Plouffe and anyone not named Berrios/Buxton in the minors).

[ashbury]

"Ho" is the second half of his given name (his first name). Perhaps we should refrain from calling him by that.

I dunno. USAFChief is what's on your birth certificate but we just call you Chief.

[Major League Ready]

 

The problem is...no one is offering a top of the rotation arm for a 26 year old who may or may not have turned a corner. The more realistic deal, is a team offers a pair of 20 year old prospects for Hicks.  IMO he has a lot more value playing for the Twins than shipping him off at this point.

I agree.  I used an extreme point to illustrate that at some point you have to consider it.

[sane]

 

Maybe Ryan is telling other GM's that Sano can play OF so it looks like he doesn't have to trade Plouffe.

These reverse-psychology things rarely work in sitcoms, so I'm not sure it will work on GM's.

It should work on ANY comedians.

[Darius]

I think they may shop Plouffe and Hicks, but I don't think anyone actually gets moved (operating under the assumption that park signs):

 

1)  Trading Plouffe assumes Park can step into the line-up from day 1, platoon-free.  It's impossible to know how he will translate until spring training, and even then likely not until weeks into the regular season.  What will his splits be like?  Can he handle velocity?  Can he handle hard breaking stuff?  He's doesn't appear to much of a pull guy, can they change that?  If not, will the power alley's sap his power?  There are just too many questions that can't be answered thoroughly during the offseason to confidently trade Plouffe.

 

2)  Trading Hicks assumes that Buxton and/or Santana can put it together offensively from game 1, and that Santana will be with the big club as OF depth (it won't be Kepler).  I'm not convinced Buxton can be effective enough at the plate to open the season as the everyday CF and leadoff hitter.  If he's not, that's where he needs to be in Rochester.  I'm not convinced Santana should be a major leaguer, yet, either.  He's a much more valuable player at SS than the third best CF option, and I don't think running him back and forth is doing him any favors.  Hicks will be vital to this teams early season success.  

 

3)  Both players have huge upside.  Plouffe can carry the team with power binges.  There isn't anyone else on the team that can do that other than Sano (possibly Dozier, but his lows are brutal, and more sustained), who is likely to regress slightly over the course of a full season.  Hicks really has the upside, and is drastically underrated by most fans.  Extrapolate his 2015 number over 550 PAs (extremely quick an dirty) and you get roughly:  Offense:  .256/.323/.721, 75 runs, 17 doubles, 5 triples, 17 HR, 50 RBI, 50 BB, 20 SB, 5 CS  Defense:  14 OF assists with a .995 F% with very good CF range, instincts, and athleticism.  As he refines his approach and becomes stronger and more consistent, I expect increases in his XBH numbers, RBI, and walks in 2016.  I wouldn't be surpirsed to see a 2016 full season extrapolation of something like .265/.340/.750, 90 runs, 25 doubles, 5 triples, 20 HR, 65 RBI, 60 BB, 20 SB, 5 CS.  That's pretty darn good, not unrealistic in any way, and extremely cheap in terms of production vs. salary.  We could realistically look back at the All-Star break and say HIcks was the first half MVP of the Twins.

 

4)  I find it hard to believe that they'll get a return that is favorable in relation to the value they bring to the team currently with their defense, and hot stretches offensively (not to mention, Hicks switch hits and can run the bases...and, again, both have some RH pop, which should be highly valued at TF).  What they need is pitching.  I don't see them getting anything in return, in the way of an MLB ready arm, that they couldn't get for a reasonable price in free agency.  

 

In short, trading them isn't likely to happen.  I wouldn't do it for anything less than quality starting pitching prospects closer to the 2016 deadline, and that's not going to happen.  

 

I think its much more likely that all of said players are kept, Mauer and Plouffe get fewer at-bats over the course of the season, Sano plays a little 3B and a little OF, mostly DH, and Park DHs and plays 1B a fair amount.  It will keep everyone (namely Mauer) fresh, leaves you with an excellent bench bat at all times, and prevents a majory injury from derailing the offense.  There will also be the rare days (probably at home, against LHP), that they fit all of that RH power in the starting line-up.  

 

 

[rghrbek]

Mackey reporting this morning, that low to midlevel Twins sources are saying the Twins plan to keep Ploufe and trade Hicks.

 

He also said that there is a mutual admiration between Jordan Zimmerman and the Twins, and has been for a few years.    Again, I have no idea who his sources are, so take it for what it is worth....

 

I am struggling to figure out how they are going to get very much in a trade for Hicks.

[stringer bell]

Some conclusions if Park is in fact signed--there isn't room for Vargas and Arcia unless someone is moved. Secondly, the power on the 2016 Twins will come almost exclusively from the right side. IMHO, it makes no sense to move Sano to the outfield unless the plan is for him to be out there for several seasons. This year would be a learning experience, not what you want to have on a contending team.

 

If acquiring Park means that the Twins are really going for it in 2016, any other trade should be for assets that will help the team win in the coming season. Don't trade Plouffe, Hicks, Rosario etc. for prospects.

 

The Twins offense was lousy and extremely disappointing in 2015. There is room for much improvement, but the improvement should be focused on guys that get on base. I'm very much puzzled about what will happen going forward, although I do like the idea of adding talent, which is how I see the move to add Park.

[Darius]

 

"I predict an angry day/week when Arcia is shipped out for peanuts "

 

"Vargas is a tough case if Plouffe isn't moved.  "

 

 

 

I disagree with these two points (or with the sentiments of those who feel they may have significant value to the team).  I think they're both trending the wrong way, to put it lightly.  Its becomming clear that neither are very good, and it's not looking good as far as them turning it around.  They're both one-dimensional type players, with major holes in their swings, and are liabilities with a glove.  

 

It's really disappointing, because I was convinced that Arcia was going places a couple of years ago.

 

If the FO had any confidence in these guys, whatsoever, they wouldn't have dropped 13 mil to negotiate with Park (that may be flat-out denied by TR, but its clear).  I wouldn't be shocked if we didn't see either at Target Field again.  I may be shocked if we did, now that i think about it.  

 

[SwainZag]

 

Mackey reporting this morning, that low to midlevel Twins sources are saying the Twins plan to keep Ploufe and trade Hicks.

 

He also said that there is a mutual admiration between Jordan Zimmerman and the Twins, and has been for a few years.    Again, I have no idea who his sources are, so take it for what it is worth....

 

I am struggling to figure out how they are going to get very much in a trade for Hicks.

 

The way the Twins keep things so tight and in house I just can't believe someone would be talking to Mackey about trading Hicks.  I would consider it no more than a rumor started on these boards, but just how I see it.

[Halsey Hall]

 

I've been thinking about posting this for awhile but now seems like the right time. A few years ago I called my shot that both Revere and Span would be traded and it happened. I now think TR is shopping Hicks for these reasons:

 

1) His value is decent - nothing exceptional but he's shown glimpses to tease other teams;

 

2) He doesn't have a spot in CF past the first few months of 2016...if that; and,

 

3) He really isn't a corner outfielder and I don't think he ever will be. I hope I'm wrong for his sake but I just don't see it (I think that's a scientific term for "feeling in my gut").

 

With that said, I actually wouldn't be surprised if Rosario was floated out there as well but I think is worth more to the Twins in the long run and can be a productive corner outfielder. 

 

I'm not sure what the plan is for Kepler and sure wish I knew what they were thinking because he truly is intriguing.

 

Finally, I think this opens a spot for Sano in RF and then Plouffe stays at 3B if they truly want to keep both of them. 

Any post about Poof staying and Sano in the outfield gets a huge dislike from me, button or no button.  Hicks will not be traded. 

[rghrbek]

 

The way the Twins keep things so tight and in house I just can't believe someone would be talking to Mackey about trading Hicks.  I would consider it no more than a rumor started on these boards, but just how I see it.

I tend to agree with you, however Mackey did cover them for a while....so I do think he heard it, just don't know how reliable the source is.

Again, I still don't think there is a large market out there for an unproven center fielder (who mostly cannot hit left handed).

[Darius]

 

 

Mackey reporting this morning, that low to midlevel Twins sources are saying the Twins plan to keep Ploufe and trade Hicks.

 

He also said that there is a mutual admiration between Jordan Zimmerman and the Twins, and has been for a few years.    Again, I have no idea who his sources are, so take it for what it is worth....

 

I am struggling to figure out how they are going to get very much in a trade for Hicks.

 

 

I would love to sign Zimmermann, and it would make sense why he would want to come here (he's from the Stevens Point, WI area).  He would really solidify this staff, and make them a serious contender:  1) Zimmerman 2) Santana 3) Gibson 4) Hughes 5) Duffey.  That is a formidable rotation.

 

This part of it does make a lot of sense: (i've heard it before, not sure who to give credit to):  Park was signed because they plan on forfeiting an early draft pick.  A high draft pick would certainly be attached to signing Zimmermann.

 

They can afford it if they're planning on taking the payroll back up over $100 M.  Still, I find it hard to convince myself that its possible.

 

[Physics Guy]

 

rosario may not be a second baseman but his value is way higher than hicks right now.

Why? 

 

Hicks  390 PA, .721 OPS, 34 BB, 66 K 

Rosario  474 PA, .748 OPS, 15 BB, 118 K

 

Rosario has more pop, but his K/BB ratio stinks.  Hicks is a true CF, Rosario could play CF if needed.  There is a striking similarity between Rosario 2015 and Santana 2014.  Rosario is the better prospect, but he may be due for some regression this year if he doesn't improve his plate discipline.

[Physics Guy]

 

Not sure if Hicks has very much value...

 

His defensive game is good enough to be in CF, and his bat resembles a CF more than a corner OF because he lacks the power. 

 

It's not the end of the world if Rosario stays in LF - he's nice defensively there and Buxton will likely be the CF. But Rosario has more value as a trade piece... it's a very interesting scenario.

League Average SLG for RF is .438 and for LF is .416.  Rosario .459

[DocBauer]

Having seen Willingham, Arcia, Nunez, Escobar and Santana play the OF in years past, and knowing the overall atheltic ability of Plouffe, Mauer and Sano....I see no reason why Buxton couldn't start the season in AAA with Kepler...we could then trade both Hicks and Rosario for catching and pitching help much in the same way we traded Revere and Span. Santana could play CF until Buxton is ready. Sano or Plouffe or Mauer could play the OF corners, along with Arcia, and one of them could play 3B. Heck, why not just move Mauer back to catcher! Now we have Park at 1B, Plouffe at 3B, Arcia and Sano could play the OF corners! Doesn't matter if Sano has never played the OF professionally, he's young and a good athlete and he can hit so he'll be just fine.

 

Oh my! Did I cover about all of it?

 

Look, IF Sano plays any OF...which I doubt fully...it will be to increase lineup versatility and not due to any sort of permanent switch. He is a 3B, the Twins have tons of OF talent, and believe it or not, over the years, the Twins absolutely DO value good defense.

 

Hicks may indeed have trade value at some point. Probably after another solid to good season to prove he really belongs as a ML hitter, and provide insurance for our OF situation since we are just so young out there right now and have a few questions in regard to when Kepler will be ready, or if Buxton is ready now or a month or so in to the season. Rosario is good...will get better...and provides a valuable LH bat in the lineup. I don't think he's going anywhere.

 

I don't believe Hicks goes anywhere until mid-season at the earliest. Sano will be a 3B, maybe DH some. If anyone is gone now, it's going to be Plouffe.

 

 

[Ncgo4]

They WILL sign Park. If not they've peed away $12 million. They will also play him at 1st base. They will not ask him to make the transition from Korean pitching to MLB pitching and learn a new position as well. No GM is that goofy.

 

That puts Mauer at DH and Sano at third or Sano at DH and Mauer in the OF. I cannot imagine Sano starting his sophomore year (after only a half year in the majors) continuing to learn to hit MLB pitching and learning a new fielding position.

 

The real question, as I posted elsewhere, is which Sano shows up at spring training. The larger than life 265 lb DH? Or, perhaps, after a Berrios like offseason a trimmed down 235 lb 3rd base athlete. Finally, God forbid, he goes home and takes to Mamma's home cookin' and shows up at 280 lbs.

[USAFChief]

They WILL sign Park. If not they've peed away $12 million. They will also play him at 1st base. They will not ask him to make the transition from Korean pitching to MLB pitching and learn a new position as well. No GM is that goofy.

That puts Mauer at DH and Sano at third or Sano at DH and Mauer in the OF. I cannot imagine Sano starting his sophomore year (after only a half year in the majors) continuing to learn to hit MLB pitching and learning a new fielding position.

The real question, as I posted elsewhere, is which Sano shows up at spring training. The larger than life 265 lb DH? Or, perhaps, after a Berrios like offseason a trimmed down 235 lb 3rd base athlete. Finally, God forbid, he goes home and takes to Mamma's home cookin' and shows up at 280 lbs.

A couple points

 

1. If the Twins don't sign Pak, they get the $12.85m back.

 

2. If both Mauer and Pak are in the lineup, it seems most likely to me Mauer stays at first and Pak DH's.

 

3. Sano didn't look to me to be carrying much body fat. He's just a large human.

[jsteve96]

 

 

 

 

 

I would love to sign Zimmermann, and it would make sense why he would want to come here (he's from the Stevens Point, WI area).  He would really solidify this staff, and make them a serious contender:  1) Zimmerman 2) Santana 3) Gibson 4) Hughes 5) Duffey.  That is a formidable rotation.

 

This part of it does make a lot of sense: (i've heard it before, not sure who to give credit to):  Park was signed because they plan on forfeiting an early draft pick.  A high draft pick would certainly be attached to signing Zimmermann.

 

They can afford it if they're planning on taking the payroll back up over $100 M.  Still, I find it hard to convince myself that its possible.

 

the payroll projection is over 108M before Park signing, and zimmerman would add another 15 or so. for one it makes no sense saying they signed Park bc they plan on giving up the pick.. it probably is the exact opposite, they signed him so they DIDNT have to give up a pick

[jsteve96]

 

Why? 

 

Hicks  390 PA, .721 OPS, 34 BB, 66 K 

Rosario  474 PA, .748 OPS, 15 BB, 118 K

 

Rosario has more pop, but his K/BB ratio stinks.  Hicks is a true CF, Rosario could play CF if needed.  There is a striking similarity between Rosario 2015 and Santana 2014.  Rosario is the better prospect, but he may be due for some regression this year if he doesn't improve his plate discipline.

for 1 he is 2 years younger, in his rookie season he hit MLB pitching while Hicks couldn't crack .200 until his 3rd and while he's at that he really only played good for a 30 game stretch. thats why

[h2oface]

 

Mackey reporting this morning, that low to midlevel Twins sources are saying the Twins plan to keep Ploufe and trade Hicks.

 

He also said that there is a mutual admiration between Jordan Zimmerman and the Twins, and has been for a few years.    Again, I have no idea who his sources are, so take it for what it is worth....

 

I am struggling to figure out how they are going to get very much in a trade for Hicks.

 

"low to midlevel Twins sources'? Now we know why they are low to midlevel. They still haven't learned to keep their mouths shut, and they can't really be trusted because of it. And now un-named sources are sited for a rumor that could have no basis or truth.... and it is passed on......

 

On another note, it is interesting that the new chubby Korean is not even signed yet. Rumor has it that he is considering getting in shape for MLB.

[Physics Guy]

 

for 1 he is 2 years younger, in his rookie season he hit MLB pitching while Hicks couldn't crack .200 until his 3rd and while he's at that he really only played good for a 30 game stretch. thats why

Both debuted at 23 and Rosario clearly had the better rookie season.  Hicks has been the more highly regarded of the two coming up through the minors.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.cgi?id=hicks-001aar

http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.cgi?id=rosari001edd

 

Rosario

Age 20:  .835 OPS in A

Age 21:  .903 in A+, .742 in AA

Age 22:  .672 in AA (although he had a late start due to suspension)

 

Hicks

Age 20:  .829 in A

Age 21:  .722 in A+

Age 22:  .844 in AA

 

Hicks has been slow to adjust to the majors, but he showed some signs of coming around last year.  Hicks has the better defensive value between the two.  Rosario is a free swinger, Hicks is patient (sometimes maddeningly).  Until Rosario shows he can produce again next year (and not be a repeat of Santana from this year), I am unconvinced that he is the better prospect.  His K/BB rate concerns me.  I hope he proves me wrong.  Either way, I hope they both become fixtures in our outfield because they have earned it by their performance.

[Darius]

 

the payroll projection is over 108M before Park signing, and zimmerman would add another 15 or so. for one it makes no sense saying they signed Park bc they plan on giving up the pick.. it probably is the exact opposite, they signed him so they DIDNT have to give up a pick

 

Oh, what a polite and thoughtful response.  Try and follow:

 

So, first off, they can't afford it if they're planning on going over $100 M?  Is that what you're trying to say?  Or, are you agreeing with me?  Because, if they were below $100M at the end of 2015, which they were, signing Jordan Zimmerman and some other things, would certainly contribute to them going back over $100M, no?  You don't think the Pohlads are capable of holding a payroll below $100M, despite that projection? 

 

In short, they can afford the guy, was my point.

 

Sure, it also makes sense to sign Park, over a Type A power bat, because they don't have to give up a pick.  But, I don't see how that fits this scenario.  Explain to me why, if you're dolling out $12.5 million merely to negotiate, that you would give a sh*t about giving up a draft pick for the player?  You're implying that they wouldn't sign him if they had to, and they value that draft pick over 40-60 million dollars, after the contract?  Let's imagine, all else being equal, that Park is a Type B from the USA, and is asking for the exact same contract that he will ask for in the coming weeks.  You don't think they would attempt sign him?  That makes perfect sense to you?  That may be the case, but it certainly doesn't make any more sense if you're into winning baseball games.

 

Ok, how about I simplify the scenario that I think would make sense IF true: "Hey, if we're going to go after a guy that will requires us to give up a high draft pick, maybe we should use that foregone signing bonus and contract to add some talent elsewhere, or atleast offset some of the cost.  Since we're ready to make a run (allegedly), lets turn that into some MLB ready talent."  Now, lets say the contract that were to be given to Zimmerman were given to Kyle Gibson, thus not surrendering a top draft pick.  Maybe their bid on Park comes in at 8-9 million (the current bid less the cost to sign the pick not given up). 

 

Did I claim this to be factual?  No.  "Doesn't make sense?"  I think you're confusing "doesn't make sense" with "can't comprehend"  

 

If you take a look at the not-so-fine print at the bottom:  "I find it hard to convince myself that this is possible."  Please let me know if you need any more help.

[spinowner]

 

Rosario-Buxton-Hicks is the OF of the near and far future. No way that they are actually going to be serious about Sano in the OF.

This. It probably won't consistently happen until June 2016 or later but this is going to be by far the best outfield combination in the Twins organization. By far. (IMHO, of course.) Arcia would have to mash big time to make it worth putting him in LF regularly (which would be a nice problem to have). By most accounts I've read Kepler has a ways to go before being a truly viable option. Sano? Maybe occasionally in an emergency, but there's no reason to expect someone with essentially no outfield experience to play better than Rosario, Buxton, Hicks, Kepler and even Arcia. 

[kab21]

 

I disagree with these two points (or with the sentiments of those who feel they may have significant value to the team).  I think they're both trending the wrong way, to put it lightly.  Its becomming clear that neither are very good, and it's not looking good as far as them turning it around.  They're both one-dimensional type players, with major holes in their swings, and are liabilities with a glove.  

 

It's really disappointing, because I was convinced that Arcia was going places a couple of years ago.

 

If the FO had any confidence in these guys, whatsoever, they wouldn't have dropped 13 mil to negotiate with Park (that may be flat-out denied by TR, but its clear).  I wouldn't be shocked if we didn't see either at Target Field again.  I may be shocked if we did, now that i think about it.  

You aren't disagreeing with me.  I am just pointing out that this board will be irate for an extended period of time if Arcia is moved for basically nothing.  Imagine the Chih Wei Hu trade bashing that occurred for weeks times 10. 

 

I still think Vargas is an intriguing prospect but I have been against being forced to start him opening day because Sano is playing 3B.  I would be okay with it if we got a haul in a Plouffe trade though.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Wait, everyone here is "smart" enough to know this is a bluff, but GMs are not? Really, people think that?

I don't think it's a bluff, I think it's hedging a bet.

 

It feels like Ryan doesn't want to go into 2016 with Plouffe on the roster but if he can't move him for fair value, he's willing to shuffle players around and make it work.